Journal of International Development J. Int. Dev.

23, 555564 (2011)

Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/jid.1792

POLICY ARENA INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AND THE DOWNTURN: ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL DOWNTURN ON MIGRATION, POVERTY AND HUMAN WELLBEING
1

KATIE WRIGHT 1* and RICHARD BLACK 2 School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of East London, London, UK 2 Sussex Centre for Migration Research, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK

Abstract: This paper provides a conceptual overview of the impacts of the 2008 global nancial downturn in the context of international migration and presents some initial evidence from the wider development literature. A human wellbeing approach is proposed as a lens for analysing the impacts of the crisis on poverty and migration outcomes. This approach offers greater holism in analysis by considering the interaction between material and psychosocial dimensions. This analysis suggests that existing policy framed within immigration discourses is insufcient to manage the complexities of a postcrisis world and argues for greater adoption of developmental approaches in shaping migration policy. Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Keywords: global financial crisis; migration; poverty, development, wellbeing

INTRODUCTION

This paper reviews recent literature on the implications of the global nancial crisis for policy debates on migration and development and assesses the nature of current policy responses to the crisis within the eld of migration policy. The implications of the global downturn on international migration processes, and the related consequences for development, are complex and unpredictable. Despite signicant moves towards a migration and development perspective, it is less clear that this has been accompanied by concrete shifts in migration policy and that the nancial crisis has revealed considerable shortcomings. In this context,
*Correspondence to: Katie Wright, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of East London, Docklands Campus, University Way, London E16 2RD, UK. Email: K.E.Wright@uel.ac.uk

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this paper argues for a more concrete policy shift from migration regulation towards a recasting of policies around migration, poverty and human wellbeing. Policy responses to the global nancial downturn in turn affect how different sets of migrants experience the crisis. Despite attention to the migration and development nexus over the last decade, traditional policy responses to migration include measures to curtail migration via for example policies designed to stimulate return of migrants, policies to promote development in countries of origin to reduce the incentive to migrate and policies of border control. This paper argues that these measures typically fail because of lack of understanding of how human wellbeing is constructed across spatial boundaries in the context of increased global interconnectedness. In particular, we argue for an approach that focuses attention on the linkages between material and psychosocial domains of migrant wellbeing as a way of offering more integrated policy thinking in areas such as migration governance. The 2008 global nancial crisis is widely understood as having been triggered by the collapse of a housing and nancial bubble in the USA associated with the subprime mortgage market in late 2007. However, interpretations as to the wider causes of the crisis differ (Copestake, 2010). Whereas some authors have argued that antecedents to the crisis relate also to wider changes in the world economy such as global imbalances and particularly Chinas trade surplus with North America (Fischer, 2010), others have interpreted the crisis in the context of long waves of global development (Gore, 2010). Reinhart and Rogoff (2008) made the specic observation that the 2007 collapse of the US subprime mortgage market had much in common with a number of other previous crises, in that it was preceded by a period of nancial liberalisation and was associated with the recycling of surplus petro dollars into lending to a group that could illafford to borrow. Either way, it is clear that the effects of the crisis on world markets and on growth have been substantial and that its effects continue to be felt around the world, 3 years on from the initial trigger. Nonetheless, the 2008 crisis has had multiple impacts which have been felt differently in different parts of the world. An immediate impact was of course felt by those in the USA and elsewhere who had borrowed money based on subprime or equivalent mortgages and found themselves homeless as property prices collapsed and loans were foreclosed. However, the initial nancial crisis was also accompanied by sharp food price increases in 2007 (Oxfam International, 2008) and food price hikes in mid2008, spreading the impact to lowincome groups around the world. In turn, although the analysis of the current nancial crisis has centred particularly on macroeconomic impacts, including impacts on trade, credit, private capital ows, remittances and aid, these impacts are likely to be differentiated, as particular developing counties are more reliant on these ows than others (McCulloch and Sumner, 2009). For example, in the specic case of migrant remittances, according to the World Bank, lowincome countries in Latin America and Eastern Europe are those most dependent on remittances whereas their importance as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in Asia and subSaharan Africa is lower (IMF, 2009). When assessing the broader poverty impacts of the global nancial crisis, it is important to consider aspects such as the socialeconomic situation prior to the crisis including the kinds of policies in place. As indicated earlier, the policy response to the crisis may also affect the ways that migrants and their households are able to respond. For example, it may be possible to adapt economic and social policy to strengthen and extend existing measures aimed at fostering greater social protection (via cash transfers for example) although another route may be to scale back or even withdraw such entitlements. In terms of the microlevel household strategies, adaptations may include the diversication of existing income streams as well as drawing on savings or credit and the sale of assets (Gottschalk, 2004). Household
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 23, 555564 (2011) DOI: 10.1002/jid

International Migration and the Downturn 557 expenditure may also be reduced by implementing dietary changes and reducing expenditure on childrens educationboth of which are likely to reect or reinforce existing gender biases (Hossain and Eyben, 2009; Hossain et al., 2010). The impacts of the crisis on migration outcomes are explored here at both macrolevel and microlevel. Macrolevel impacts include how the current nancial crisis is affecting global trends in international migration, whereas microlevel impacts concern the strategies employed by migrants to enhance their wellbeing and that of those left behind. Yet these macrolevel and microlevel impacts crosscut material and psychosocial domains of human wellbeing. Although the broader emergence of human wellbeing theory is explored in the editorial to this policy arena, it is argued that the particular conceptualisation of human wellbeing used here (McGregor, 2007; White, 2008; McGregor and Sumner, 2010) offers a framework that captures the interplay between material aspects of poverty and inequality (concerned with welfare and standards of living) and psychosocial aspects including perceptual dimensions (relating to how people think and feel about what they can do) and the relational dimension (concerned with personal and social relations including relationships with the state). Rather than material and psychosocial domains operating separately, the most interesting aspect of how migration is affected by crisis arguably lies in their dynamic interaction. Whereas the impacts of the crisis are complex and vary according to regional context, adoption of a human wellbeing approach offers the possibility of tracking direct material impacts but going beyond these to consider indirect relational and perceptual impacts which are summarised in Table 1.
Table 1. Identifying material and nonmaterial impacts using a human wellbeing approach Indirect relational impact
Exacerbation of conflict in the home; marital breakdown Gendered dietary changes in the household as poverty more likely to affect women

Direct material impact

Labour market contraction unemployment; higher levels of personal debt (host country)

Indirect perceptual impact

High levels of anxiety and depression Male partners laid off, women under increasing pressure to provide and send remittances Yet, some evidence of male migrants entering areas typically reserved for women (e.g. care of the elderly) where demand is still high, e.g. Spain, leading to potential shifts in gender relations Women and men prepared to accept work on more adverse terms

Increasing exports and numbers of people employed in particular unprotected sectors, e.g. rise in informal sweatshops in textile industry in Bangladesh (sending country) Reduced welfare spending and toughening of international migration policy (host country)

Workers rights eroded

Heightening of antiimmigration discourse; greater hostility, marginalisation and discrimination against migrant populations Rise in social tensions, conflict and xenophobia, e.g. Zimbabwe Less scope for influencing state and enhancing migrant rights

Migrants feeling more curtailed in ability to return to home countries because of fear of inability to reenter host country

Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

J. Int. Dev. 23, 555564 (2011) DOI: 10.1002/jid

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Thus, material impacts encompass areas such as economic growth and labour markets. For example, the evidence suggests that there has been an increase in unemployment (and underemployment) of migrant populations working in particular industries (such as in construction) that are particularly dependent on investment or exposed to the global economy. Given high levels of poverty and adversity experienced by migrant groups and the barriers that many already face in constructing wellbeing through the strategy of international migration (Wright, 2010, 2011), there is a concern that the impacts on migrant workers (who are more likely to be employed on shortterm exible contracts) are likely to be more severe than for native groups (Gibb, 2009; OECD, 2009a, 2009b). With that said, impacts have been mixed even in exportprocessing zones. In parts of China for example, migrant export sector workers faced abrupt job losses in 2008 (Sward and Skeldon, 2009:3). This affected ruralurban migration processes with reports of 10 million migrants returning to rural areas because of layoffs in the manufacturing sector in urban areas following sharp falls in export demand (IOM, 2009:3). By contrast, in other contexts, employment even increased in certain market niches. For example, in Bangladesh, the export of textiles increased in 2008, albeit via unlicenced sweatshops that subcontract work, pay little and irregularly, and in general treat workers poorly (Hossain and Eyben, 2009:10), as this sector was able to respond quickly to the changing market demand for cheaper products. Meanwhile, other countries have largely weathered the effects of the nancial crisis, whereas others have been more severely impacted. For example, in South East Asia, whereas GDP growth fell dramatically in Thailand in 2008 and both Thailand and Malaysia experienced negative growth rates in 2009, both Vietnam and Indonesia have witnessed relatively high rates of GDP growth continuing into 2009. This relates to the buoyancy of China that has production networks throughout the region, leading to positive knockon effects. The gendered impacts of these labour market changes also need exploration as poverty impacts are likely to be hardest felt by women (Elson, 2009; Gibb, 2009). Yet, in some cases, areas that are traditionally reserved for women (such as domestic service and care of the elderly) may be more buffered from the recession than areas where men typically predominate, such as construction (Koehler et al., 2010). Indeed, migration itself has a number of gendered impacts both on migrants themselves and on host populations, which vary signicantly from one country to another. In this context, it appears that the gendered impacts of the 2008 crisis are highly differentiated and need to be better understood. Other areas in the material domain that warrant investigation include the impacts of the crisis on global remittance ows and particularly how these are changing in response to the crisis; the impacts of the nancial downturn on state budgets, which are likely to have indirect effects in terms of restrictions on entitlements for migrants (including decreases in social protection policies); and the likelihood of broader uctuations in terms of exchange rates, prices and asset values (including food and fuel volatility) affecting both migrants and those left behind. Also of interest is how the crisis is affecting migrant economic behaviour more generally, including savings activities, acquisition of assets and levels of personal debt. In contrast, an assessment of impacts in the psychosocial domain requires attention to perceptual impacts (including behaviours, practices, beliefs, values and lifestyles of migrants themselves and those left behind) and how these are changing in response to the global nancial downturn. This includes changing perceptions surrounding the decision to return, ranging from the extent to which populations are deciding to return in greater numbers as a result of the crisis to whether they have become more constrained in
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 23, 555564 (2011) DOI: 10.1002/jid

International Migration and the Downturn 559 their ability to return and the challenges and opportunities that this poses. Assessing psychosocial impacts also requires examination of changes in social relationships at a range of scales. This includes relationships at the household level (such as exacerbation of conict in the home) as well as how relationships between migrants and the wider community are changing as a result of the global nancial downturn. Beyond this, it is also important to consider wider social treatment of migrants. This may include a rise in social tensions, conict and xenophobia and the toughening of immigration policies, norms and practices. These trends are also reected in the heightening of antiimmigration discourse that leads to greater marginalisation and discrimination against migrant populations (who are already vulnerable to increased risk of poverty and adversity).

2 OVERVIEW OF MIGRATION AND THE CRISIS: WHAT DO WE KNOW SO FAR? The impacts of the current nancial crisis on migration outcomes are potentially far reaching. For example, in the material domain, poverty may be intensied as migrants become more vulnerable to unemployment in the receiving country and need to cut back on consumption and are forced to accept work on more adverse terms in order to continue to save and support relatives back home. This might be expected to be felt in two principal areas in terms of reduced opportunities for migration and also in terms of reduced remittances. In relation to migration trends, some evidence of a slowdown of migration in some regions in the period immediately following the onset of the crisis is emerging. For example, applications for H1B visas issued for temporary entry to the USA slowed in 2008, whereas it is estimated that unauthorised immigration to the USA has fallen by 8 per cent since 2007, with Mexican migration levelling off and sharper declines in migration from countries further south (Passel, 2010). Many Mexican and other Latin American migrants lost their jobs in the construction industry that collapsed after the housing bubble burst (Mccabe and Meissner, 2010). However, although it is logical that the crisis would have led to falling levels of migration, this has not universally been the case. Notably, amongst some of the more recent destinations of migrants from poorer countries, such as the Gulf and emerging Asian economies, migration appears to have held up since the end of 2007. Thus, in Singapore, an additional 79 000 new permanent residents were recorded in 2008, with a net increase in the nonSingaporean population of the country in the region of 57 000 people. Similarly, despite a deep nancial crisis as its own property bubble burst, Dubai continued to attract foreign workers, with gures from the National Bureau of Statistics demonstrating its population growing by nearly 7 per cent in the rst 9 months of 2010 and reaching 1.87 million (UAE, 2010). Even in the USA, although applications for H1B visas have fallen, other signicant contributors to overall migration, including intercompany transfers and the arrival of family members and relatives as new permanent residents rose in aggregate terms in 2008. As regards remittances, data from the World Bank show that ofcially recorded remittance ows to developing countries reached $338 billion in 2008. According to Dilip Ratha et al. (2008, 2009a, 2009b, 2009c), Ratha and Mohapatra (2009), we are likely to see a recovery in migration and remittance ows in 2011, but it is likely to be shallower with the result that remittance ows in the next 2 years are unlikely to reach the level reached in 2008. World Bank sources suggest that in terms of the macrolevel impacts of the current
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downturn, countries with close US ties have seen global remittances decrease, whereas in South Asia, where countries send a large number of workers to the Persian Gulf and surrounding areas, countries are showing signs of resilience. A similar pattern is observed in Europe by Koehler et al. (2010), who note a signicant reduction in remittances from the UK to Poland, for example, but parallel increases in ows from the UK to parts of South Asia. This ts with a work by Martin (2009) who suggests that some origin countries are making efforts to ensure their migrant populations stay abroad to guarantee remittance ows. Interestingly, remittance ows to South Asia grew strongly in 2008 despite the global nancial crisis, although risks remain that they may slow down in a lagged response to a weak global economy (Ratha et al., 2009c). East Asia and subSaharan Africa also face similar prospects. Remittance ows to Latin America and the Caribbean and Middle East and North Africa were weaker than expected in 2009; yet, they appear to have bottomed out already, suggesting a possible recovery in 2011. In terms of psychosocial impacts, a number of changes appear to have been experienced by migrants, both in relation to attitudes towards migration and return and in terms of intrahousehold relationships. Thus, some evidence is starting to emerge that in the face of the crisisand in particular in the face of increased restrictions on the part of some host statesmigrants have become more reluctant to consider returning to their home countries, with the result that returns have actually fallen as a proportion of total migration. In addition, in terms of gendered impacts, there is some evidence of greater strain placed on marital relations within households and increased domestic violence linked to the stresses of coping with high prices and the threat of unemployment including increases in arguments between husbands and wives (Turk, 2009). Similarly, the work of Green et al. (2010) highlighted the interaction between material and psychosocial impacts of the crisis on women working in the garment industry in Indonesia as suggested in the following extract that was reported by union ofcials: Nuning worked in a garment factory in North Jakarta and her wage supported her extended family, as her husband was unemployed. When she was laid off, he got very angry and started to beat her. In this case our union tried to mediate by meeting with the family and explaining that the dismissal was the impact of the crisis, not the fault of the wife and that the violence had to stop. We are hearing many cases like this (Green et al., 2010:21). Where male partners are laid off, material and psychological pressure on women to provide is often intensied, whereas their ability to save is reduced. These additional nancial and emotional pressures and health problems can contribute to breakdowns in marital relationships, as suggested by Datta in this policy arena in the context of Bulgarian migrants in the UK. At the same time, however, emerging evidence by Bastia suggests that the nancial downturn may lead to greater incorporation of men (who have lost their jobs in the construction sector for example) into areas typically reserved for women, which in some cases may lead to broader shifts in gender relations. In terms of broader psychosocial impacts in the relational domain, we have seen an escalation in conict and fuelling of racial tensions including protests by British nationals in the UK against the employment of EU workers. There have also been generalised increases in crime, substance abuse and antisocial behaviour reported in the context of Kenya, Bangladesh, Zambia and Indonesia (Hossain, 2009a: 60 61) as well as increased
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 23, 555564 (2011) DOI: 10.1002/jid

International Migration and the Downturn 561 social and racial tension. For example, in the context of migration, attacks on Zimbabwean refugees and migrant farm workers in South Africa in November 2009 were ostensibly prompted by price rises in food and fuel and scarcity of jobs. For example, according to a report by the BBC (3 November 2009), 3000 foreign nationals, mostly Zimbabweans, were driven from their homes in a township outside Cape Townwith their homes set alight and belongings destroyed. There is also evidence of migrants scope for inuence visvis the state being reduced, with immigration policies becoming more restrictive in both developing and developed countries (Green and Winters, 2010). This includes restrictions on migrant inows imposed by some countries including Australia, Italy, Russia and the UK as well as a tightening of immigration policies in developing countries such as Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea. However, it is also noteworthy that some of the more dramatic measures used by host states during the Asian nancial crisis in 19971999, including forcing the return of temporary and undocumented workers, have generally not been repeated since 2007, at least on a large scale.

WHERE NEXT?

The global nancial crisis and its aftermath provide an opportunity to encourage policy makers to rethink current policy responses and shift the framing of policy towards a human wellbeing and developmental perspective that incorporates the views of poor people themselves by using international migration as a strategy to exit poverty and improve their livelihoods. Despite signicant moves towards greater understandings of the migration and development nexus, the recent nancial crisis and its aftermath have revealed serious shortcomings in translating this into policy. The crisis may provide the opportunity to trigger a more concrete shift in policy framing on the migration and poverty nexus to incorporate analysis across material and psychosocial domains of human wellbeing. Despite widespread recognition of the potential developmental impacts of migration (including via remittances), policy change on migration and development internationally is still arguably being driven by immigration interests rather than development and especially poverty reduction interests. For example, EU policy in this area has been led by the European Commissions Directorate General for Justice, Freedom and Security rather than policy being formulated at global and sectoral levels by The Directorate General for Development. Similarly, participants in the Global Forum on Migration and Development have frequently come from interior and home affairs ministries, rather than ministries concerned centrally with economic development. The International Organisation of Migration discusses migration and development issues, but again primarily from an immigrationbased perspective, with the participation of representatives of interior ministries. Similarly, those writing in this area come predominantly from (im)migration studies rather than from development studies. It is argued that these discussions tend not to reect migration from the point of view of poor people seeking to exit poverty but have tended to emphasise instead a control, regulation or management approach. Yet, stricter border controls, for example, appear only to have encouraged migrants to stay on illegally, accepting lower paid work. In this context, this paper argues that migration policy should be refocused via greater inclusion of development ministries. However, the types of policies that such ministries can and should promote might vary between sending and destination countries. Thus, for
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example, in destination countries, perhaps the key issue, as highlighted by Green and Winters (2010), is for countries to resist the temptation to act preemptively to tighten immigration controls, particularly as the experience of the Asian nancial crisis of 19971998 is that such policies, combined with largescale returns, rapidly led to shortages of workers in key areas and an eventual reversal of the policy (Skeldon, 2004). In the same vein, given the multidimensional nature of poverty and the interconnectedness between material and psychosocial impacts, countries such as the UK should also resist pressures to withdraw social protection entitlements and other benets for migrants experiencing greater nancial insecurity and psychological pressure and should enhance support for grassroots migrant associations that play a vital role in offering material and psychological support to enhance migrant wellbeing. Similarly, policies focused on promoting return have often not worked as expected, with migrants largely rejecting economic incentives to return offered by governments in destination countries (such as Spain). For example, Black et al. (2010) highlighted how although there was a signicant rise in noncoercive returns from Europe in 2005 or 2006, since then numbers have declined. This review also concludes that existing evidence indicates noncoercive return programs do not receive large take up, do not modify behavior and do not result in major development gains (Black et al., 2010: 4). Meanwhile, there is much policy development that sending countries could also be promoting. First, clearly some migrants may return as a result of the global downturn, with the risk in certain circumstances of mass return should conditions become particularly precarious. Sending countries need to be alert to such returns and develop policies both to stimulate the productive reintegration of those who trickle back and to be prepared for the possibility of a mass return. As Papademetriou and Terrazas (2009) pointed out, such returns are most likely to occur where there are facilitative policies towards circulation, rather than barriers to circular mobility. Second, sending countries also need to be aware of, and responsive to, changing levels of remittances, especially in the Americas where it appears that such transfers have suffered since the end of 2007. But perhaps most important for sending countries in the current nancial crisis context is paying greater attention to the social protection needs and human rights of migrants from their country living in other, often still much richer, parts of the world. For example, taking only those countries with a population of more than one million in 2001, all of the top 10 countries of emigration have themselves witnessed steep falls in GDP growth since 2001, sometimes alarmingly so (e.g. in Ireland, which was on the brink of collapse at the time of writing, or Trinidad and Tobago, which moved from doubledigit growth in 2004 to a fall in real GDP in 2009). Such a context surely reinforces the point that migrants remain a signicant potential resource for development, but one where their continued presence abroad in the short term may be of more value for states in crisis than their early return to countries bearing the full force of the crisis themselves. Despite signicant attention over the last decade to migration and development linkages, it has been less clear that these have been translated into concrete shifts in migration and development policy and that the global nancial crisis has exposed signicant shortcomings. This is arguably the context in which a policy shift from regulation to a more concrete framing of policy around the migration, poverty and human wellbeing nexus becomes most important. For even though the liberalisation of nancial systems can be seen as part of the cause of the most recent, and perhaps past, nancial crises, there is also little doubt that the continued connectedness of countries to a global economy where others are faring better, and where the seeds of recovery are to be found, remains essential to otherwise embattled
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Int. Dev. 23, 555564 (2011) DOI: 10.1002/jid

International Migration and the Downturn 563 countries that are oftenlike Ireland and Trinidad and Tobagosmall and peripheral in a global economic context.

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J. Int. Dev. 23, 555564 (2011) DOI: 10.1002/jid