Noel Wang

The Limits to Growth : the true meanings

Also known as the Meadow Report, The Limits to Growth was written in 1972 by Dennis Meadows, Donalla Meadows and Jorgen Randers in response to an order from the Club of Rome to the Massachussets Institute of Technology. Based on a dynamic computer model called World3, the report shows 12 possible outcomes for human society over the period 1972-2100, basing its analysis on the demographic and economic trends at the time of writing. The Limits to Growth was the first of its kind to depict the dangers of economic and demographic growth on the Earths ecosystem. Particularly, the report addresses the topic of global sustainability, which would be attainable only at the expense of the current main dominating consumering lifestyle. Common mistakes are made on the sense of Growth as stated in the title. Here, it does not relate to economic growth, but to a much more global perception, including population size, food production, industrialisation and ressources usage, in other words in terms of human ecological footprint. Often criticized mostly by economists- for being catastrophist or irrealistic, a revised and augmentented edition dated of 2012 seems to prove the authorss original views were correct. In the words of Jorgen Randers, the main scientic conclusion of the study was that delays in global decision making would cause the human economy to overshoot planetary limits before the growth in the human ecological footprint slowed. One of the

interpretation however is that, at this rate and without dramatic change management, a cliff could be reached between 2030 and 2050, after which the world society may not recover without pain. To the obsession of economic growth, the authors preconise those of global balance and stability to ensure the continuation of sustainable humanity.

Methodology The report was made after a computer model taking in account interactions between population, industrial growth, food production and limits in the ecosystems of the Earth. Criticized on the base of it not reflecting precisely the evolution the world since 1970, the model however is able to demonstrate logical relation effects on variables defined as limited resources, such as food production, fossil energy resources, and demography.

The threats as identified by The Limits to Growth Common mistake is that the word Growth refers to economics, whereas actually it does to ecological footprint. The ecosystem is the main area of concern of the authors of the rapport. Of the 12 scenarios they identified, only managed decline can allow society to make a smooth transition from an ecologically overshooting way of functioning to a sustainable lifestyle in the long run. Some problems are identified as critical. This is the case for fossil energies. Polluting affects humans but also the nature, what as consequence will result in climate change and unliveable areas. Researches for the sources of marginal fossil energies has lead to the rise of the uneconomic energy , an expensive type to dig for. The point is that these fossil resources remain financially attractive for the companies that exploit them, and they will remain as such, as long as customers are willing pay and use it. The change has to occurs of the demand side first.

Key findings and recommendations The transition has to unfold early to avoid a painful collapse, because transition takes time. Delays in political decisions are the main and easier problem to tackle. Objectives : get rid of the sole GDP calculation for standard. New concept of growth,incorporating human dvlp, happiness, security, stability and secutity. Problem : how to quantify these aspects ? Encourage development of new-gen renewable energies (cf. Desertec), clear policy favouring these latter. Political moves have to be made on the supply side ( infrastructures, investment) and the demand side to favour consumers adoption of a new type of energy. However, renewing renewable has a pace, and that should be taken in account.