Emerging Markets Outlook December 2013

Emerging markets outlook
Emerging markets analysis 23 December 2013
New medicine for China, a short-term headache
In 2014, the market trend will continue to be characterised by uncertainty surrounding the effects of monetary policy in the US and economic developments in China. In addition to these factors, important national elections will be held in several emerging economies. In general, we expect a tough climate for several currencies in emerging markets, albeit with considerable variation between them. In the US, the Federal Reserve will begin to scale back its monthly bond purchases in January, which risks impacting the global investment climate negatively. Chinas leadership has announced new reforms aimed at bringing down the level of overinvestment and reducing the risk of bubbles in the economy. The reforms are positive for China to achieve long-term sustainable growth. In the short term, on the other hand, their implementation will weaken the economy and thus restrain price trends in many commodity markets. The starting point for the introduction of the new reforms is challenging, with an overheated property market and an excessive level of credit growth, causing the Chinese central bank to tighten monetary policy. The currency trend will also be affected by political elections in several countries in 2014. This means that fiscal policy may
become somewhat more expansive to keep voters in a good mood in countries such as Brazil, whose credit ratings risk being lowered. In India, the political mood is so oppressed that there is scope for positive surprises, while the situation may be more problematic in countries such as Indonesia and Turkey. In our assessment, the vulnerability will be greatest for currencies with large current account deficits, insufficient currency reserves and commodity-heavy exports. This group includes Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa. In our view, however, the Indian rupee has a certain resilience since the low exchange rate is expected to give a considerable improvement in the current account. In Russia, where the problems are of a more structural nature, the pressure on the rouble will remain. In the longer term, the Mexican peso will benefit from stronger growth in the US. The on-going recovery in the euro zone will give the Polish zloty greater stability. The US dollar has continued to weaken against the euro over the autumn. Going forward, we expect the dollar to strengthen on the back of higher relative growth in the US vs. euro zone. We also expect the ECB policy to be more cautious in relation to the monetary policy in the US and forecast EUR/USD at 1.32 in three months time.
Emerging markets outlook Is published four times a year and is forecasting currency developments for selected emerging market countries with a time horizon of 3 months.
Emerging Markets FX Provides advice, analysis and foreign exchange products to clients within emerging markets. For further information, call +46 8 700 90 20 Analyst: Hans Gustafson +46 8 700 91 47
Russia
Growth disappointments continue Negative investment trend Currency forecast vs. the euro The Russian economy has continued to develop weakly. GDP rose by only 1.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013, compared with the corresponding quarter in 2012. Having shown positive figures since June, exports declined by 5,5 percent at annual rates in October. Industrial production has now shown a declining annual rate since the peak in 2010. The Purchasing Managers Index is below 50, indicating a continued sluggish trend in industry for the immediate future. Previously strong private consumption has shifted down a gear in the past year. Retail sales are growing by about 3.5 percent at annual rates, which is a historically low level, and new car sales have shown a negative annual rate since the start of the year. Potential growth has probably fallen to less than 3 percent, which explains why the rate of inflation has not fallen more, despite the weakness of the economy. Russia has a major deficit in infrastructure investment since the Soviet era. The total rate of investment has been largely negative since the start of 2013. The surplus in the current account is declining rapidly and now amounts to about 2 percent of GDP. The rate of inflation rose to 6.5 percent in November, meaning that it continues to exceed the central banks target of 5-6 percent, thus impeding opportunities for rate cuts.
Poland
Increased optimism in industry Weak domestic demand Currency forecast vs. the euro The recovery of the Polish economy has continued supported by stronger export demand from the euro zone. GDP rose by 1.9 percent in the third quarter, with a rise in real exports of 6.5 percent over the same period. Industrial production rose by 5 percent on an annual basis in November, largely driven by cars and electrical equipment. The Purchasing Managers Index has risen sharply in recent months and thus indicates a continued favourable trend in the industry in the immediate future. Private consumption is still lagging, although signs are beginning to emerge of improved household activity. The trend in retail sales has been positive over the past half a year and new car registrations have broken the negative trend that had persisted since early 2011. Consumer prices developed unexpectedly weakly in November with an increase of only 0.6 percent at annual rates, which is below the central banks lower limit of 1.5 percent. We consequently expect that the central bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at a record-low 2.5 percent at least until the autumn of 2014 or as long as the low inflationary pressure remains.
Forecast EUR/RUB in 3 months 46.20 (today 45.09)

Interest from foreign investors is low, as reflected by the weak stock market trend and the fact that interest rates on bonds are considerably higher than at the start of the year. We expect continued pressure on the rouble as long as there is no progress at the structural level in Russia.
Forecast EUR/PLN in 3 months 4.15 (today 4.16)

The Polish economy has turned upwards. On the other hand, we expect a slow recovery and continued low interest rates and thus have a neutral view on the zloty against the euro.
Russia Spot Rate EUR/RUB

46 45 44
EUR/RUB
Poland Spot Rate EUR/PLN

46 45 44
EUR/RUB EUR/PLN
4,45 4,40 4,35 4,30 4,25 4,20 4,15 4,10 4,05 4,00 jan apr jul 12 okt jan apr jul 13 okt
4,45 4,40 4,35 4,30 4,20 4,15 4,10 4,05 4,00

EUR/PLN
43 42 41 40 39 38 jan maj jul sep nov jan mar maj 12 jul 13 sep nov
43 42 41 40 39 38
4,25
Source: Reuters EcoWin
FX/FI research Swedbank Large Corporates & Institutions
Page 2 of 8
Turkey
Low confidence in monetary policy Weakened current account Currency forecast vs. the euro Over 2013, the Turkish lira fell by about 15 percent against the US dollar to a new bottom level, driven most recently by corruption scandals and the Federal Reserves announcement that it would be reducing its bond purchases. On the other hand, the weak exchange rate has yet to have a positive impact on economic growth. Industrial production rose by only 0.7 percent at annual rates in October and exports fell by 8.2 percent at annual rates during the same month. This trend stands in stark contrast to the recent positive trend in the Purchasing Managers Index, which has risen to its strongest level since 2011. In November, the rate of inflation was 7.3 percent compared with the central banks target of 5 percent. The central bank left interest rates unchanged at its November meeting but chose to tighten liquidity in the system so that interbank rates ended up at a higher level. Confidence in the central bank policy is very low, with credit growth in the bank system amounting to about 35 percent at annual rates, thus significantly exceeding the banks target. The trade balance has weakened for seven consecutive months, further increasing the deficit in the current account. An additional worrisome development is that the maturity on external debt has seen a decreasing trend since 2010.
South Africa
Low valuation Weak current account Currency forecast vs. the euro The South African rand has found itself in a downward trend since the autumn of 2011. Exports are weak despite the rand having fallen by some 35 percent against the US dollar over that period and the current account deficit is of a record size. The basic problem is at the structural level. The labour market is pervaded by frequent strikes with high wage agreements that are, in turn, inhibiting the employment trend. Infrastructure investments have been neglected for many years, with the consequence that economic development is impeded by major bottlenecks in the economy. Among other effects, this has resulted in the electricity network being under-dimensioned and there being major shortcomings in port capacity and the rail system. The quality of the education system is among the lowest in the world. Consumer confidence is very low, as reflected by declining new car sales and the weakest retail sales since 2008. Credit growth is modest, rising by only 7 percent compared with the growth levels of 20-25 percent that prevailed before the financial crisis. The policy rate has remained unchanged at a record-low 5 percent since 2012. Over the past two years, the rate of inflation has hovered at around 6 percent, which is the central banks upper tolerance level for inflation.
Forecast EUR/TRY in 3 months 2.84 (today 2.86)

The Turkish lira remains highly vulnerable to possible concerns of decreased dollar liquidity as the deficit in the current account increases. Confidence in economic policy is also very low. In our assessment, pressure on the lira vs. the US dollar will remain and the central bank will need to raise its policy rate further to mitigate the decline. We are negative on the euro vs. the US dollar, providing a neutral forecast for the lira vs. the euro.
Forecast EUR/ZAR in 3months 14.12 (today 14.18)

The South African rand is one of the currencies that remain highly sensitive to renewed flight of capital from emerging markets. The current account has weakened at a rapid pace and thus also the risk of a lowered credit rating. The risk to our assessment would be if Chinas growth was to be stronger than expected and commodities prices accelerate upwards.
Turkey, Spot Rate, EUR/TRY

2,9 2,8 2,7
EUR/TRY
South Africa, Spot Rate, EUR/ZAR

2,9 2,8 2,7
EUR/TRY EUR/ZAR
14,5 14,0 13,5 13,0 12,5 12,0 11,5 11,0 10,5 10,0 9,5 jan apr jul 12 okt jan apr jul 13 okt
14,5 14,0 13,5 13,0 12,0 11,5 11,0 10,5 10,0 9,5
EUR/ZAR
2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 jan apr jul 12 okt jan apr jul 13 okt
2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1
12,5
Page 3 of 8
Mexico
Positive trend in the reform process Weak economic growth Currency forecast vs. the euro Economic growth in Mexico weakened in 2013. GDP rose by only 1.3 percent in the third quarter and the annual rate of industrial production hovered at around zero over the year. Previously strong car production has lost impetus in recent months. The labour market has weakened, impairing consumer confidence and, in turn, resulting in already weak retail trade continuing over the year. On the other hand, we expect that growth will gain pace during the first half of the year, supported by stronger demand from the US, which is Mexicos largest export market. Households are also supported by the interest rate cuts implemented by the central bank. Over the year, the policy rate was lowered by a total 100 points to a record-low 3.5 percent. In addition, fiscal policy is expected to become more expansive in 2014, supporting demand, with the principal focus being on the construction sector. The political process, with new structural reforms, has developed positively, which is expected to lead to higher productivity in the longer term. The new reforms in the labour market, education and tax systems have been approved and another reform was recently approved that will open up the energy sector to private investors.
Brazil
High policy rate Weak growth and weakened current account Currency forecast vs. the euro Growth in Brazil has been far too dependent on private consumption in recent years. Economic policy has focused on counteracting the decline in exports with rigorous stimuli for private consumption. The effects of these stimuli gradually decreased over the year. Structurally, economic growth is being restrained by an inadequate level of investment. Investments account for less than 20 percent of GDP, placing Brazil at a very low level compared with other emerging economies. A complicated tax system and lack of regulation are among the factors said to impact the investment climate negatively. The central bank raised its policy rate by 275 points in 2013 to 10 percent to restrain the high level of inflation. President Rousseff faces elections at the end of 2014. The economic situation is now more challenging for Rousseff compared with the situation in 2010, due to weak growth and high inflation. We consequently expect continued expansive fiscal policy aimed at keeping voters in a good mood. We see downside risks in exports to China, which will further weaken the current account. This trend means that Brazil risks incurring a lowered credit rating and means that the real remains vulnerable to the reduced bond purchases by the Federal Reserve.
Forecast EUR/MXN in 3 months 17.29 (today 17.77)

The Mexican peso is supported by higher expected demand from the US. On the other hand, we expect considerable uncertainty regarding the effects of US monetary policy, which risks affecting the global risk climate negatively in the first quarter. This may create a choppy environment for the peso during the first quarter of 2014.
Forecast EUR/BRL in 3 months 3.23 (today 3.26)

We are negative on the outlook for Brazilian real vs. the USD and neutral vs. the euro. Weaker demand from China is expected to limit the recovery in exports. The current account is worsening at a rapid pace, increasing dependency on dollar liquidity. The uncertainty concerning budget policy ahead of the 2014 presidential elections entails a risk that the credit rating will be lowered.
Mexico, Spot Rate, EUR/MXN

18,00 17,75 17,50 17,25
EUR/MXN
Brazil, Spot Rate, EUR/BRL

18,00 17,75 17,50 17,25
EUR/MXN EUR/BRL
16,75 16,50 16,25 16,00 15,75 15,50 jan apr jul 12 okt jan apr jul 13 okt
16,75 16,50 16,25 16,00 15,75 15,50
apr
jul 12
okt
jan
apr
jul 13
okt
Page 4 of 8
EUR/BRL
17,00
17,00
3,3 3,2 3,1 3,0 2,9 2,8 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2 jan
3,3 3,2 3,1 3,0 2,9 2,8 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2
Indonesia
Negative trend in the current account Low confidence in economic policy Currency forecast vs. the euro The Indonesian rupiah is the years biggest loser with a decline of about 18.5 percent against the Swedish krona. The underlying explanation for the weak exchange trend lies at the political level and low-set growth expectations. GDP rose by 5.6 percent in the third quarter of the year compared with the corresponding period in 2012, which is the lowest rate of growth since the financial crisis in 2009. The decline is mostly explained by lower investments related to the weaker demand situation in the commodities market. The current account has worsened from a surplus in 2011 to a deficit equivalent to 3.7 percent of GDP in the third quarter of 2013. Domestic demand has been resilient on the other hand and is expected to continue to be supported by an election-related budget. In 2014, the fourth free elections since 1999 will be held, with parliamentary elections in April and presidential elections in July. There is a considerable proportion of undecided voters and we expect the elections to be pervaded by considerable personal and populist elements. The rate of inflation rose sharply in the summer and in November amounted to 8.4 percent. As a result, the central bank raised its policy rate by 175 points in several stages this year to 7.5 percent. We expect further interest rate hikes to stabilise inflation and the exchange rate.
South Korea
Large reserves and strong current account Weak momentum in the economy Currency forecast vs. the euro GDP rose by 3.3 percent in the third quarter, driven largely by investments. Exports, on the other hand, contributed negatively and we expect a continued negative impact on exports against a background of weaker demand from China. China is South Koreas largest export market, corresponding to 26.5 percent of exports. Exports are, however, supported by increased activity in the US and the on-going recovery in Europe. Private consumption has been weak over the past two years, which stands in strong contrast to the positive trend in the labour market. Inflationary pressure is very low. Consumer prices rose by an annualised rate of 0.9 percent in November, which means that inflation is beneath the central banks lower band of 1 percent by a considerable margin. This causes us to expect an unchanged policy rate of 2.5 percent in the first half of 2014. Consequently, households, which have a high level of debt, will continue to be supported by monetary policy. Fiscal policy is also expected to provide further stimulation to private consumption in 2014. South Korea has the highest national level of savings of the emerging market economies we analyse. The surplus in the current account is of a record scale and amounts to about 5.5 percent of GDP, causing us to expect a continued minor impact from any concerns of the effects of US monetary policy.
Forecast EUR/IDR in 3 months 16500 (today 16746)

The rupia has continued to fall, most recently to the levels that prevailed during the financial crisis. This reflects a very low level of confidence in economic policy, considerable dependency on exports of commodities, concerns regarding dollar liquidity and substantial uncertainty ahead of the political elections in 2014. We consequently expect continued downward pressure on the rupiah vs. USD and a neutral view vs. the euro.
Forecast EUR/KRW in 3 months 1452.00 (today 1451.03)

The Korean won has developed relatively strongly compared with the currencies of the other emerging economies that we analyse. The won is supported by stronger demand from the western world, a major surplus on the current account, and considerable foreign exchange reserves. On the other hand, the valuation is starting to appear a little strained. This causes us to be neutral towards the won for the upcoming quarter.
Indonesia Spot Rate EUR/IDR

17000 16000 15000
EUR/IDR
South Korea Spot Rate EUR/KRW

17000 16000 15000 14000 13000 12000
EUR/KRW EUR/IDR
1525 1500 1475 1450 1425 1400 1375 jan apr jul 12 okt jan apr jul 13 okt
1525 1500 1475 1450 1425 1400 1375

EUR/KRW
14000 13000 12000 11000 jan apr jul 12 okt jan apr jul 13 okt
11000
Page 5 of 8
India
Low valuation and stronger exports High inflation slows growth Currency forecast vs. the euro The Indian rupee has stabilised against the US dollar since the new governor of the central bank was appointed in August. GDP has bottomed out and rose by 4.8 percent in the third quarter, while PMI is now back above 50. To achieve a lasting strengthening of the rupee, politicians must now get to grips with Indias long-term structural problems. Expectations have increased that next years parliamentary elections will bring a change of government. The current opposition leader, Modi, is expected to advocate a more business-friendly policy The incumbent has governed during a period of weakening growth which, combined with a general lack of decisiveness, has resulted in weak confidence in policies. Consequently, the prospects of a more growth-friendly economic policy following the elections appear more favourable than they have for a long time. Inflation accelerated to 11.2 percent in November. The high rate of inflation means that the central bank is not yet finished with its interest rate hikes, which are restraining already weak domestic demand. However, we expect that the low exchange rate will lead to continued good growth in exports. On the whole, this causes us to foresee a considerable improvement in the current account. This means that the rupee will be less vulnerable to disruption in global liquidity moving forward.
China
New reforms facilitate more sustainable growth Tighter monetary policy slows activity Currency forecast vs. the euro China has begun an important process of policy change to develop the economy, with the purpose of achieving longterm sustainable growth. In November, the government presented a reform package including 60 reform measures in 16 areas to be implemented by 2020. Market forces are to be permitted to assume a more prominent role with the purpose of achieving a better distribution of resources in the economy and breaking the trend of overinvestment and irregularities in the credit market. Measures presented included improved protection regarding land ownership rights, fewer restrictions on foreign investment and capital and making the renminbi more internationally convertible. These structural reforms are necessary and highly positive for Chinas long-term development. The implementation of these reforms is, however, likely to weaken the economy in the short term. Prices in the property market are rising strongly again and credit growth is too high, aspects over which the central bank has recently expressed concern. It has also conveyed that the Chinese economy faces an extended period of debt deleveraging. So far, however, there are no strong indications of a slowdown in the economy, although we will not be surprised if GDP growth ends up below 7 percent in 2014.
Forecast EUR/INR in 3 months 80.52 (today 84.85)

In our assessment, the rupee is currently less sensitive to renewed concerns regarding diminished dollar liquidity. The current account is strengthening and the currency has support from high interest rates. We see increased optimism ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2014 among expectations of more reformist policies. The greatest risk for the rupee would be if the outcome of the elections leads to a weak government.
Forecast EUR/CNY in 3 months 7.95 (today 8.31)

This year, the renminbi has strengthened by about 2.5 percent against the US dollar. We expect a continued gradual strengthening over the upcoming months as the new reforms are gradually introduced.
India, Spot Rate, EUR/INR

95 90 85
EUR/INR
China, Spot Rate, EUR/CNY

95 90 85
EUR/CNY EUR/INR
8,5 8,4 8,3 8,2 8,1 8,0 7,9 7,8 7,7 jan apr jul 12 okt jan apr jul 13 okt
8,5 8,4 8,3

EUR/CNY
80 75 70 65 60 jan maj jul sep nov jan mar maj 12 jul 13 sep nov
80 75 70 65 60
8,2 8,1 8,0 7,9 7,8 7,7
Page 6 of 8
Contact information
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Head Jan Peter Larsson Tel: +46 8 585 97736 e-mail: jan.peter.larsson@swedbank.se
Research
Macro Chief economist Anna Fellnder Tel: +46 8 700 99 64 e-mail: anna.fellander@swedbank.se Magnus AlvessonTel: +46 8 5859 3341 e-mail: magnus.alvesson@swedbank.se Anna Breman Tel: +46 70 314 95 87 e-mail: anna.breman@swedbank.se Cathrine Danin Tel: +46 8 5859 3492 e-mail: cathrine.danin@swedbank.se ke Gustafsson Tel: +46 8 700 91 45 e-mail: ake.gustafsson@swedbank.se Knut Hallberg Tel: 46 8 700 93 17 e-mail: knut.hallberg@swedbank.se Jrgen Kennemar Tel: 46 8 700 98 04 e-mail: jorgen.kennemar@swedbank.se FX Anders Eklf Tel: 46 8 700 91 38 e-mail: anders.eklof@swedbank.se Emerging markets Hans Gustafson Tel: 46 8 700 9147 e-mail: hans.gustafson@swedbank.se Fixed Income Jerk Matero Tel: 46 8 700 99 76 e-mail: jerk.matero@swedbank.se
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FX Emerging markets Martin Sderlund Tel: +46 8 700 90 20 e-mail: martin.soderlund@swedbank.s Peter Granqvist Tel: +46 8 700 97 86 e-mail: peter.granqvist@swedbank.se FX and Fixed Income Gothenburg Hans Boman Tel: +46 31 739 88 44 e-mail: hans.boman@swedbank.se FX and Fixed Income Malm Zandra Trulsson Tel: +46 40 24 21 91 e-mail: zandra.trulsson@swedbank.se FX and Fixed Income Stockholm Lena Jonnerberg Tel: +46 8 700 94 30 e-post : lena.jonnerberg@swedbank.se FX and Fixed Income Helsinki Jan-Peter Laaksonen Tel: +358 207 469164 e-mail: jan-peter.laaksonen@swedbank.fi FX and Fixed Income Oslo Mattis Lund Tel: +47 23116278 e-mail: mattis.lund@swedbank.se FX and Fixed Income Tallinn Maarika Liivapuu Tel: +372 6133042 e-mail: maarika.liivapuu@swedbank.ee FX and Fixed Income Riga Imants Svilns Tel: +371 67444134 e-mail: imants.svilans@swedbank.lv FX and Fixed Income Vilnius Andrius Bakanas Tel: +370 85 2582535 e-mail: andrius.bakanas@swedbank.lt
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Head Charlotte Aleblad Tel: +46 8 585 97715 e-mail: charlotte.aleblad@swedbank.se
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Analysts certification The analyst(s) responsible for the content of this report hereby confirm that notwithstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interest referred to herein, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the market covered. The analyst(s) further confirm not to have been, nor are or will be, receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing any of the views or the specific recommendation contained in the report. Issuer, distribution & recipients This report by Swedbank Large Corporates & Institutions FX Fixed Income Research, is issued by the Swedbank Large Corporates & Institutions business area within Swedbank AB (publ) (Swedbank). Swedbank is under the supervision of the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) and other financial supervisory bodies where Swedbank and Large Corporates & Institutions have branches. This report is distributed by Swedbanks branches. In no instance is this report altered by the distributor before distribution. In Estonia this report is distributed by Swedbank AS, which is under the supervision of the Estonian Financial Supervisory Authority (Finantsinspektsioon). In Lithuania this report is distributed by Swedbank AB, which is under the supervision of the Central Bank of the Republic of Lithuania (Lietuvos Respublikos centrinis bankas). In Latvia this report is distributed by Swedbank AS, which is under the supervision of The Financial and Capital Market Commission (Finanu un kapitla tirgus komisija). Limitation of liability All information, including statements of fact, contained in this research report has been obtained and compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Swedbank with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents, and it is not to be relied upon as authoritative and should not be taken in substitution for the exercise of reasoned, independent judgment by you. Be aware that investments in capital markets - such as in this document - carry economic risks and that statements regarding future assessments are comprehended with uncertainty. You are responsible for such risks alone and we recommend that you supplement your decision-making with that material which is assessed to be necessary, including (but not limited to) knowledge of the financial instruments in question and the prevailing requirements as regards trading in financial instruments. Opinions contained in the report represent the analysts present opinion only and may be subject to change. In the event that the analysts opinion should change or a new analyst with a different opinion becomes responsible for our coverage of the market covered, we shall endeavour (but do not undertake) to disseminate any such change, within the constraints of any regulations, applicable laws, internal procedures within Swedbank, or other circumstances This research report is produced for general distribution to eligible recipients and Swedbank is not advising nor soliciting any action based upon it. If you are not a client of ours, you are not entitled to this research report. This report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. To the extent permitted by applicable law, no liability whatsoever is accepted by Swedbank for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report. Conflict of interest In Swedbank Large Corporates & Institutions, internal guidelines are implemented in order to ensure the integrity and independence of the research analysts. The guidelines include rules regarding, but not limited to: contacts with the companies covered; personal involvement in the companies covered; participation in investment banking activities and supervision and review of research reports. For example: The Research department is separated from the rest of Swedbanks activities by a Chinese wall. Research reports are independent and based solely on publicly available information. The remuneration of staff within the Research department may include discretionary awards based on the firms total earnings, including investment banking income. However, no such staff shall receive remuneration based upon specific investment banking transactions. Swedbank AB shall not receive compensation from the company being analysed for making an investment recommendation or enter into an agreement with the said company to make an investment recommendation.
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Emerging Markets Outlook December 2013

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Emerging markets outlook

Emerging markets analysis 23 December 2013

New medicine for China, a short-term headache