Short Term Betfair Football Trading Modelling

SHORT TERM BETFAIR FOOTBALL TRADING MODELLING By TimeGoal Software 1. General

A well known trading in Betfair Exchange market is the back/lay arbitrage in Under 2.5 market at the first 1015min of a football game. When the game starts and as there is no goal, the odd of Under 2.5 market is reducing as it shows in figure 1. This is the case for placing a back bet before the game and then placing a lay bet after 1015min of the game. The question is which the probability is, for scoring a goal during the first 10min of a game. Additionally, which are the best time intervals during a football game for making a short term trading? TimeGoal online software can make such calculations using previous historical goal data. The user has the opportunity to select time intervals of a game, so as to have probabilities for the score status.

very important to mention that probabilities are based only in historical goal data, without any reference in other game factors (players, red cards etc) that may affect the result of the game. Therefore, it is better to use the results only as reference values, which need further readjustment according to other factors (players, red cards etc) as has been mentioned above. 2. Trading Modeling

A trade modelling is going to be done between teams PAOK and ARIS from GREEK Superleague. The analysis will try to find the probability for the score (0-0) to remain or to change inside time intervals of 2min during the first half time of the game. The results of such a calculation are shown in table 1. Data sampling of goals was selected as Home-Away from season 2008-2011. That means, the analysis include all matches played from PAOK as ome and respectively from ARIS as Away. According to the results the best Trading has to be done between 46min, 1618min and 2527min. These time spacings during the game have been shown the less probability (below 4%) for the existing score (0-0) to change. At the other hand, time intervals between 2224min and 3436min have been shown high probability (above 10%) for score (0-0) to change. Table 2 shows the same calculations assuming different data sampling of goals Home & Away-Home & Away that means the analysis include all matches played as home & away from PAOK and ARIS. Time spacings between 46min & 2527min shows again small probability (below 4%) for the existing score (0-0) to change.

Figure 1: Betfair diagram of Odd fluctuation during a game It is assumed, that the reader is familiar with software components and procedures. It is
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Short Term Betfair Football Trading Modelling

Table 1 : Trading Probabilities between Time Intervals by TimeGoal, Data Sampling Home-Away
TIME AREA 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 13-15 16-18 19-21 22-24 25-27 28-30 31-33 34-36 37-39 40-42 43-45 Possibility (%) SCORE To Remain (0-0) 95,40% 97,59% 93,83% 92,11% 91,43% 96,88% 91,94% 87,72% 96,00% 93,75% 93,33% 88,10% 94,59% 94,29% 90,91% To change (0-0) 4,60% 2,41% 6,17% 7,89% 8,57% 3,12% 8,06% 12,28% 4,00% 6,25% 6,67% 11,90% 5,41% 5,71% 9,09% Data Sampling Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Home-Away Season

0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-2

2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2012 2008-2013

Table 2 : Trading Probabilities between Time Intervals by TimeGoal, Data Sampling Home & Away for Team (1) and Home & Away for Team (2)
TIME AREA 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 13-15 16-18 19-21 22-24 25-27 28-30 31-33 34-36 37-39 40-42 43-45 Possibility (%) SCORE To Remain (0-0) 94,25% 96,95% 94,34% 92,00% 92,03% 95,28% 91,74% 90,09% 96,00% 95,83% 93,48% 91,86% 94,94% 94,67% 90,14% To change (0-0) 5,75% 3,05% 5,66% 8,00% 7,97% 4,72% 8,26% 9,91% 4,00% 4,17% 6,52% 8,14% 5,06% 5,33% 9,86% Data Sampling HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA HA-HA Season

0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-2

2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011 2008-2011

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Short Term Betfair Football Trading Modelling

According to the results, it seems that the safest back/lay trading must be placed between 46min & 2527min of the game. The question is what kind of betting strategies has to be followed, if there is a goal during these trading periods (46min & 2527min). TimeGoal software has the possibility to model such a case. Making a trading from 2min to 4min the possibility to have the first goal is 2.41% to 3.05%. When the first goal has been scored, odd of Under 2.5 increased dramatically. After a period of time during the game (usually 2030min), when there is no other goal, odd of Under 2.5 market reduce at a price similar with the price offered, before the first goal scored.

A completed trading modeling has to take care of having a goal scored during the trading period. So, when a goal scored until 6min, trading has to be continuing for at least the next 20min, which means until 26min of the game. The possibility to have another goal (more than one) between 6min to 26min calculated with probability equals to 36.36%, as it shown in figure 2 and figure 3. Figure 4 shows the same trading modelling for making a trading from 25min to 27min and then until 47 to reduce your money loss in case of a goal scored during 25min to 27min.

Figure 2: TimeGoal menu assuming Scenario of 1goal until 6min and search probability until 26min.

Figure 3: Diagram of Betfair Trading Modeling by TimeGoal, Time Interval 4min to 6min.

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Short Term Betfair Football Trading Modelling

Figure 4: Diagram of Betfair Trading Modeling by TimeGoal, Time Interval 25min to 27min.

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