2012年中国地方政府信用评级风险分析报告

2012
31
: 2011 GDPGDP GDP
36
GDP
GDP 3
0
2011
21
5 2011
10
2011 10
13 A
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BB BBB .................................................................................................... 126
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2011 ........................................................................................................... 26
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2011 GDP ..................................................................................... 43
2011 GDP ............................................................................. 50
10
2011 GDP ......................................................................... 56
11
2011 ........................................................................................................... 63
12
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13
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14
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15
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2011 ................................................................................... 86
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.......................................................................................... 2
.................................................................................................................. 5
2008-2011 GDP ........................................................................................ 12
2007 ....................................................................................... 13
2007 ................................................... 14
2009 PMI .............................................................. 15
2009 ........................................................................... 16
2009 ................................................................................... 17
2001 ................................................................................................... 18
10
2001-2010 .................................................................................................. 19
11
2011 CPI ........................................................................................... 20
12
2007 CPIPPI ................................................................................. 21
13
2009 M1M2 ........................................................... 22
14
................................................................................................................ 23
15
2006-2011 .................................................................................................. 38
16
2007-2011 ......................................... 53
17
2007-2011 ................................................. 54
18
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19
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20
2007-2011 ..................................................................................... 57
21
2006-2011 ..................................................................................... 58
22
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2006-2011 .......................................................................... 61
24
2007-2011 ...................................................................... 62
25
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26
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27
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2007-2011 .............................................................................. 99
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2007-2011 ................................................................................ 101
39
2007-2011 ............................................................................ 102
40
2007-2011 ................................................................................ 103
41
2007-2011 ................................................................................ 104
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2007-2011 ................................................................................ 105
43
2007-2011 ................................................................................ 106
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2007-2011 ............................................................................ 107
45
2007-2011 ................................................................................ 107
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-01087167575
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2009 3
4
2009
2010 2
2010 1 19
2010 2009
2011

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2010 9828 10
2.84 1
2009
2002
2007 300
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2002
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Logit
AAA AAA
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2012
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2012
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-01087167575
2012
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2011 2011
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-01087167575
2012
GDP
10
GDP
GDP
10
5
5
2.0
[1.02.0
[0.50.1
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1 GDP
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-01087167575
2012
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-01087167575
2012
2010
2012
2011
2011
2010
5
100 60
10060
0 100
10
-01087167575
2012
11
-01087167575
2012
2011
2011
2011 GDP 9.2%
2011 471564 2010

9.2% 2010 1.1 9.7%
9.5% 9.1% 8.9%
47712 4.5% 220592 10.6%
203260 8.9% 2.0%
3 2008-2011 GDP
2011 GDP 9.7%
9.6%9.1% 8.9%
25%
2011 13.9%
9.9% 9.3%
15.8% 10.4%

12
-01087167575
2012
14.3% 13.0%39
11.7%
18.2% 16.8% 468 417
12.0% 12.3% 16.1%
10.6% 7.4% 3.0% 5.9%
98.0% 0.1
101946 16.6%
4 2007
2011 1-11 46638
24.4% 39 36 3 1-11
84.98%
0.09 11 7%
2011 12 12.8% 11 0.4
12 1.10%12
11 0.6
0.2 14.3%
13% 2010 2.4 0.4
13
-01087167575
2012
5 2007
9.9%
9.3% 15.8% 10.4%
2011 39 2009
11.7% 18.2% 16.8%
468 417
12.0% 12.3% 16.1% 10.6%
7.4% 3.0% 5.9%
98.0% 0.1
PMI 2011 PMI 2010 11
2011 2011 11
2011 12
14
-01087167575
2012
6 2009 PMI
2011 2010 23.8% 16.1%
2011 301933 23.8%
1-11 0.7 16.1%
12
0.14%
2011 6792 25% 1-11
3.8 132263 27.3% 0.3
162877 21.1% 1.3 2011
129011 26.9% 1-11 0.1
11810 21.4% 102594 31.8%
14607 3.8%
2011 144536 21.3%
1-11 0.4 82524 28.8% 1-11
0.1 69489 29.2% 1-11
2011 281741 24.7%
1-11 0.7 9362 19.9%
0.8 9437 12% 1.1
2011 20209 9.7%
1-11 1.2 281724 27.2%
0.3

15
-01087167575
2012
2011 632121
18.7% 1-11 0.8 240344
22.5% 1.5
2011 334219 20.3%
1-11 2.4 10.8% 1.6
3.5% 2.4 28.6%
1.1 8.2% 2
9% 6.5
7 2009
2011
35%
26% 2010
2011
2011
183919.9 2010
17.1% 156908
17.2% 24318 16.7%
20543 16.9% 160683 17.2%2011
16
-01087167575
2012
2011
17.1% 2010 1.2 11.6%
2010 3.2
8 2009
CPI 2009 2011
1996
2011 23979
21810 14.1%
8.4% 12.4%
12.1% 29.0% 24.7%
6977 17.9% 11.4%
21.9% 13.7%
13.0% 24.4%2011
2011 0.5
2010 2 1.3 2010 2.2
17
-01087167575
2012
9 2001
2011 7
14.8% 11.8% 2010
4.6 2006 2007~2011 54.9%
2011 12% 2010

4 16.9% 2010 0.5
2011
23.2% 2010 6.7 1.3
2010 2011
0.9 1.5
1.3 7.2
1.8
2011 1551.4
2011 36420.6 2010 22.5%

18986 20.3%
17434.6 24.9% 1551.4 263.7

18
-01087167575
2012
14.5%2011 12 3329.2 12.6%

1747.2 13.4% 1582 11.8%
2011 4.6
2010 7.2% 14.5% 263.7
4.3% 1.8
10
2001-2010
7 2004 2008
5%2009
16 11
12
2010 2011
2011
7
8
2012
10%
19
-01087167575
2012
2011 CPI 5.4%12 CPI 4.1%

2011 CPI 4%2011
CPI 5.4% 2008 5.9%
11
2011 CPI
2011 12 CPI 4.1

15 2011 7 CPI
5
4.1%
4.1% 9.1% 1.9% 4.9%
2.0% 0.3%
0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 0.1%
0.5% 0.2% CPI
2.79 16.6%
1.12 11.5% 0.30
20
-01087167575
2012
12
2007 CPIPPI
2012 2010
2011
2011
2011
2012
7%
2011 M2 85.16 13.6 11

0.9 2010 6.1 M1 28.98
7.9 2009 0.1 13.3
M0 5.07 13.8 6161
214

21
-01087167575
2012
2011 M2 M2
M2 11 M2
12
M2
13
2009 M1M2
2012 M2
2012
M2
2011 58.2 14.3

7.9 0.46 54.8
14.36 2010 5.54 7.5
0.45

22
-01087167575
2012
13.61 20.9%
16.9 2.42 4539
1.48 4053 18.2%
17.5 9359 486
26.2% 15.5
. 3.70 2.24
308 1.35
2011 7.47 7.5
2011 12 6405
33.24% 13.93%2011 12
2011 5000
7000
2011
14
2012 2012
2012
23
-01087167575
2012
2011 96
2010 70 0.18%2010
0.10% 244 71
85 115
9
05
0.9%
2011 9
9 12 2011 1
1.9 3.0
0.6 1.8
2011 2011
6.3009 2010 5.1%2005
31.4
2011
49
6.1%2005
21.2 30.3 61 2011
3 2
2012
2012
2011
2011
24
-01087167575
2012
2011
2011
2011
2011
6 3 3 0.75
10
0.5
2011
M2 85.2 13.6% 6.1
15.8% 4.1 7.47 2011
12.83
12 8.01%

25
-01087167575
2012
1.82 2011 6.3009

5.11%
2011
6 2011
2011.1
2011.1
2011.1
2011.1
2011.2
2011.2
2011.2
2011.2
2011.3
2011.4
2011.4
2011.4
2011.4
2011.4
2011.2
2011.5
2011.5
2011.5
2011.6
2011.6
2011.6
2011.6
2011.6
2011.6
2011.7
2011.7
2011.7
2011
2011-2020
2011
2011
3000
15
2011
10
2011
3500
26
-01087167575
2012
2011.7
2011.7
2011.7
2011.8
2011.8
2011.8
2011.9
2011.9
2011.9
2011.10
2011.10
2011.10
2011.10
2011.10
2011.11
2011.11
2011.11
2011.11
2011.11
2011.12
2011.12
2011.12
2011.12
2011.12
2010 2011
115
5%-10%
9
2012
15
21
5 5%
2011 CPI 5.4% 4%

2008 5.9% 11.8% 2.8%
2.1% 2.4%
3.4% 0.5% 0.4% 5.3%
2011
2010 7 2011 7
CPI 6.5% 8 4.1%
2011 9.7%

27
-01087167575
2012
8.9%
2010 2011
2011 2011
2011 1 6
2011
2011
2008 12
2004
2011
2011 9 1
2000 3500
6000 2011 10
17%
2011
2011 10 12
2011 10 26
2012 1 1

28
-01087167575
2012
2011 11 1
2011 11 17
2012
1 1 2012 1
2014 12 31 22
2011 1 26
1.
2011
2.
3.
5

29
-01087167575
2012
4.
60% 1.1
5.
70%
6.
1
1 2
1
7.
8.
30
-01087167575
2012
2011
2011
2009
31
-01087167575
2012
2008
2000
229
32
-01087167575
2012
2011 20092010
2011
2011
2011 6
2011
2011 6
2011
211 10 27
2011 11
2011

33
-01087167575
2012
2011 11 16

2011 12 14 2012
2011
2011
2012
2012
30
2012
34
-01087167575
2012
2011
2011
2012
2012
2011
GDP
2011
3 GDP 21% 1.4
50%
19952005
2005
7

35
-01087167575
2012
10
12
30
1978 28.2% 2011 10.1% 17.1

47.9% 46.8% 1.1
23.9% 43.1% 19.2
2010
49.68% 2000 207137093
133237289 13.46
68 73
15 4.5 8.5
5 18.1
36.6/10
2011 11 2 2011
1 3
178
101
36
-01087167575
2012
2011
2011
2009 2010
2011
2011
2011 2011
2011
2011 6977 1058 17.9%

37
-01087167575
2012
11.4% 0.5
23979 21810 2701 14.1%
8.4% 0.6
15
2006-2011
2011 3.131
2010 3.231
2000 0.4
1978 0.3172006 0.496 20%
4.7% 20%
50%
38
-01087167575
2012
2011 103740 2010 24.8%

10 108930 21.2%
2011
13.9%
23.8% 17.1% 22.5%
5.4% 6%
9.1% 17.4%
2010 2011
2011
2011
2500
6 3 2010 12 1
2011
2010 33.1%
2010
29.6%
25.9%
10%
7%
1-12 108930 19056 21.2%
56414 16514
525 3.3% 2011
11%

39
-01087167575
2012
39900 7559 23.4%

92416 18531
25.1%
2011
16116 3566
28.4% 6367 1563 32.5%
11144 2013 22% 3822
1446 60.8% 9890
1760 21.7% 1890 348
22.5% 2618 176 7.2%
7472 1984 36.1% 7653
1665 27.8% 4014
529 15.2% 6293 776
14.1% 3806 556 17.1%
11109 1772 19%
2388 544 29.5%
4
2011 36420.6 2010 22.5%
1551.4 2010 263.7 14.5%2011 12

3329.2 12.6% 1747.2 13.4%
1582 11.8%
2011
4.6
2010 7.2% 14.5%
4.3% 2010 1.8
2011
19245.9 29.2% 52.8% 2010
2.7 9171.2 27.3%
7 10074.7 31% 6.1

40
-01087167575
2012
903.5 85.8%
13052.1 12.7% 8354.2 12.9% 4697.9
12.5% 3656.3 13.4%
2011 5672.1 18.3%

4.2 4466.5
15.9% 6.6 2011
3628.5 23.9% 1.4
1700.8 23.1% 1927.7
24.6% 226.9 37.1% 3428.9
15.1% 7.4
842 792.5 454.3
34.5%42.7% 76.7%
7 8
2011 9134.8
16.4% 5397.6 4373.1 3894.9
15.9%18.5% 29.1%
3094 2359.9 1435.6 22%24.8% 32%
7 81.5%2011
5319.4 17.4%
3126.2 2163.6 2096.9 15.6%19.9% 16%
1257.9 928.4 590.3 20.7%
29.9% 6.5%
1.6 82.7%55.5% 63.1%
2011 18601.6 16.2%

51.1% 2.8
10212.8 36%
13.5 28% 2.8
7606.2 22.2%
41
-01087167575
2012
12 1532.2
18.3% 946.7 22.9% 417.2
17.1%
5
20
42
-01087167575
2012
2011
2011
GDP
2011 23 GDP 20000
10 10000 20000 7 5000 10000
5 3000 5000 3 3000 0
8 2011 GDP
GDP
16000.4
11190.99
24228.2
11100.2
14246.11
22025.9
10530.71
12503.8
19195.69
48604.3
32000
15110.3
17410.21
11583.8
45429.2
27000
19594.19
19635.19
52673.59
11714.35
2515.29
10011.13
21026.7
5701.84
8750.95
605
12391.3
5020
43
13
20
6
21
15
7
22
16
11
2
4
14
12
19
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5
10
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18
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26
24
31
17
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10
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10
10
7
7
7
10
10
7
7
10
7
0
7
10
5
5
0
7
5
-01087167575
2012
1634.72
2060
6574.54
30
29
25
0
0
5
2011 52673.59 10% 2.4

2011 10.5%10.1%9.9%
9.6% 0.6 2005
10%
48604.3 11%
2011
6 5000 1000
1 3300
1 1.5 5000
2.6 1
45429.2 10.9%
2011 45429.2 10.9%
3973.8 4.0% 24037.4 11.7%
17418.0 11.3%
32000 9.0%
2011 32000 9.0%
1581 16404 14015
3.6%9.1% 9.4% GDP 58665 9083
7.1% 4.951.643.5 4.951.343.8
27000 11.7%
2011
19.6% 2.8 1.7 0.2
1108.5 1.9% 6 2011

44
-01087167575
2012
18.1% 0.4
29.4% 1.0
24228.2 11.3%
GDP 11.2% 11.1%
11.3% 11.3% 11% 10
11.5% 2011
14.1%16.2%
22025.9 12.1%
2 22025.9 12.1%
2.9 7
1915.6 6.5% 12150.7 14.1%
7959.6 10.5%
21026 15%
2011 15.0% 5.8
2983.5
4.5% 11027.9 20.7% 7015.3
10.9%.
19635.19 12.8%
2011 GDP 19635.19 12.8%
1.8 GDP 29828
4618 966
2733.66 4.2%
4.8% GDP 0.6 9324.73 17%
61.1% GDP 7.8 8083.15
18.2% 56.1% GDP 7.2
7576.8 11% 34.1% GDP 4.4
19594.19 13.8%
GDP 2011 GDP 2010 11 10
9 398.5 GDP 2011 GDP

45
-01087167575
2012
34132 2007 16206 17926 GDP

13 2007 3
19195.69 8.2%
2011 19195.69 8.2%
8.5% 8.4% 8.3%
8.2%
82560 12784
2011 17410.21 12.2%
2011 17410.21 12 2011
12.2%2011 GDP46972 7000 2009
GDP 83.92010 GDP
86.9 2012
2011 16000.4 8.1%
16000.4 8.1%
136.2 0.9% 3744.4 6.6% 12119.8
8.6% 80394
12447 0.92475.1 0.923.475.7
GDP15110.3 13.5%
GDP15110.3 13.5%
2020.3 4% 8226.4 17.9%
4863.6 10.5% 6979.6
19.6% GDP6.1
14246.11 14.3%
14246.11 14.3%
1304.91 5.8% 8092.07 17.8%
4849.13 11% 3.8%
68.3% 27.9%
57515 13.8% 8905
9.256.834

46
-01087167575
2012
2011 12503.8 12.2%

GDP12503.8
12.2% 1705.6 6.2% 6317.3
13% 4481 13.1% 13.650.5
35.9 GDP 6.4%53.6% 40.0%
5.8%
2011 12391.3 13.9%
2011 12391.3 13.9% 10
1220.9 5.9%
6836.27 16.9% 4334.13 11.7%
11714.35 12.3%
11714.35 12.3% 2047.30
4.8% 5736.78 17.1% 3930.27
9.4% 17.5%49.0%
33.5% 6.9%65.9% 27.2%
25315
11583.8 12.5%
2011 12.5% 2003 9 12%
3.3 GDP
11583.8 2003
1 11020 25.6%
11190.99 16.4%
GDP 11190.99 16.4%
159.09 3.8% 5878.02
18.3% 5153.88 14.6% 1.452.5
46.1
11100.2 13.0%
11100.2 13.0%
641.4 5.9% 5.8% 6577.8
16.5% 59.2% 3880.9 8.6%

47
-01087167575
2012
35.0% 489.4 6.2%

736.3 7.1% 846.7
16.0% 30974 2011 4796
10530.71 13.7%
2011 10530.71
13.7% 4.5
8 1277.40 5.1%
5601.20 17.5% 3652.11 10.9%
2010 12.152.035.9 12.153.234.7
10011.13 16.4%
2011
10011.13 16.4% 14.9%
844.52 5.1% 5542.80
21.8% 4690.46 22.2% 3623.81
10.8% 8.455.436.2 90% 0.2
GDP 8750.95 13.7%

2011 GDP 8750.95 13.7%
2753.64
18% 523.55 24.5%
7109.7 27.4%
3000.14 20.0%
1110.83 27.5%
2929.59 28.2%
1300.29 29.1%
6574.54 12%
6574.54 12% 1.4
2.8
2011 5701.84 15.0%
2011 5701.84 15.0%

48
-01087167575
2012
726.22 1.2% 2334.02 20.7%

2641.60 14.2%
12.7%40.9%
46.4% 0.9
1.8
5020 12.5%
2011 5020 12.5% 678.2
5.9% 2524.3 15.2% 1817.5
11.5% 325.6 13.3%
114.8 8.2% 124.2 5.3%
14.5448.1737.29 13.5150.2836.21
2.11 1.03 1.08
2515.29 12.0%
2011 2515.29 12.0%
659.15 6.2% 714.50 15.2%
1141.64 13.3% 28797
4429
2060.79 12.0
2060.79
12.0 184.13 5.0 1076.00
17.5 800.66 7.0
32392
2010 9.449.041.6 2011 8.952.238.9
2011 3.9 71.9
24.2
1634.72 13.5%
1634.72 13.5%
155.44 5.0% 939.10 17.3%
540.18 9.7%
3.7%71.1% 25.2% 0.59.6 3.4

49
-01087167575
2012
2010 10.055.134.9 2011 9.557.533.0

605 12.6%
2011 605 12.6% 95
87% 54.7 49.2%
GDP
GDP
GDP
9 2011 GDP
GDP
80394
86496
33719
30802
56666
50349
37870
32637
82560
61022
58791
25395
47433
25988
46976
28716
34233
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25449
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16117
19038
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33197
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50
3
1
14
18
6
8
11
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2
4
5
27
9
24
10
22
13
20
7
26
23
12
25
31
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28
15
29
21
5
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3
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3
5
3
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3
3
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1
3
3
3
1
1
1
3
1
3
-01087167575
2012
32692
30257
16
19
3
3
GDP86495.57
2011 18424
11.2% 4683 8.9% 13741
12.1% 3.2 36.2%
20.3 4.2 95.6
4.4 217 11.8
GDP 82560
36230 13.8%
15644 13.8% 25102
8.2% 7721 11% 11272
10.2% 3349 13.5%
GDP80394
32903 13.2%
7.2% 14736 13.6%
7.6% 31.4% 0.7
32.4% 1.5 48.6
8 74166 18.8%
GDP61649
26341 14.8%
9.2% 16782 16.9%
36.1%
10805 18.5% 11.9% 2500
7693 17.6%
38.5%
2.441
GDP 58665
51
-01087167575
2012
2011 GDP 58665 9083 6.4588

30971 13071
7.5% 9.5% 11
3 27 1 67
20437 8.6%
9644 8.9% 34.6% 0.3
37.6% 2.2
2011 27283 3883
16.6% 11553 1557 15.6%
GDP56666
2011 20408
15.3% 1.2 2010 3.6 2011
6642 20.1% 2.2 2010

8.1
GDP50500
26897.48 12.6%
6.9% 36.9% 0.4
13.1 %
34.4 20% 57719.88 20%
9927.32
GDP50349
2 20467 15.5% 9.9%

13094 11.8% 2285 27.1%
334 33.6% 7167 14.6% 8297
20.1% 13.8% 3180
20% 4271 22.5% 245 4.5%
601 11.8%
GDP47433
52
-01087167575
2012
2011 24907 14.4%

3.1 8.7% 0.7
11.2% 40.1%
23.4% 5.8% 8779 18.2%
7.0 12.3% 4.8
25.7% 15.1%
18.9% 107.9 1.2
GDP25449
20846 18854
10.5% 4.5%
12.3% 2.7% 15.2%
46.5% 5231 15.1%
8.2% 6.6% 19.8%
22.0% 23.8% 3.601
1 3.761
GDP25395
18606 17.8%
11.8% 13181 14.5% 20.1%
11.9% 22.1% 23.1%
39.8% 1.8 32.1
0.5
16

2007-2011
53
-01087167575
2012
6232 17.9%
11.3% 4957 23.5% 25.9%
27.9% 41.5% 0.8
35 3
17
2007-2011
GDP20152
16196 8.1%
4904 18.5% 33.87 174.27
36.61
29.61
6000
17.20%
17.20%
5000
14.50%
4000
3176
11.70%
3000
2435
4139
13.90%
2788
18.50% 20.00%
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4904
16.00%
14.00%
3532
12.00%
10.00%
11.20%
2078
8.00%
2000
6.00%
4.00%
1000
2.00%
0
0.00%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
18
19628
GDP 2005
GDP

54
-01087167575
2012
GDP19038
2006 GDP 1000 39

4.11 8 2010 GDP
24 GDP GDP
GDP16117
GDP 2009 GDP
10258 2008 1434 10.7%2010
GDP 12096 2009 17.9%2011 GDP
16117
19
55
-01087167575
2012
GDP
8%
2011 GDP 2010

1 2011 r
GDP GDP- GDP/ GDP*100%--------------------------1

10
2011 GDP
GDP %
8.1
16.4
11.3
13
14.3
12.1
13.7
12.2
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9
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1
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29
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19
15
27
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5
-01087167575
2012
15
13.7
12.7
13.9
12.5
13.5
12
12
4
9
14
6
16
11
22
23
5
3
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20
2007-2011
2007 5252.76 2011

11190.99 2007 2
57
-01087167575
2012
21
2006-2011
2011 10011.13
16.4% 14.9%
GDP21026.7
15.0% 2983.5 4.5%
11027.9 20.7% 7015.3 10.9%
4.3%70.0% 25.7% 26133
15.9% 14.450.535.1 14.252.433.4
12143.6 17.8%
GDP 57.8% GDP 66.7% 1204.1
0.2% 7484.9 22.8% 3454.6
14.5%CPI 5.3% 12.0%
4.6% 6.0% 12.4%
PPI 7.3% 7.9%
5.7%IPI 12.6%
125.9 125.7
153.8 138.3 134.8 130.7
2011 5701.84 15.0%

58
-01087167575
2012
726.22 1.2% 2334.02 20.7%

2641.60 14.2%
2006 2259.67 2011
5781.04 2006 2.56 2010
16 4
14
GDP
GDP
2011 GDP 5
2007 19% 2007
2011 12391.3 13.9% 10

1220.9 5.9%
6836.27 16.9% 4334.13 11.7%
5
2011 19594.19 13.8%

8 2569.30 4.4%
9818.76 17.9% 7206.13

59
-01087167575
2012
12.0% 2010 13.448.737.9 13.150.136.8
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15.3%
[2]10530.71 13.7%
1277.40 5.1% 5601.20
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GDP 38321 13.4% 12.153.234.7
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5318 50.5%
18860.4 30.3%
4.19%
22
2007-2011
9 25
48604.3
11% 3064.8 4%
25023.8 11.7% 20515.7 11.1%
60
-01087167575
2012
GDP45429.2
10.9% 3973.8 4.0% 24037.4
11.7% 17418.0 11.3%
9.254.236.6 8.852.938.3 47260
9.9% 7317
23
2006-2011
2011 GDP52673.59 10.0%

2659.83 4.0% GDP 2.0%
26205.30 11.3% GDP 56.6%
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45.2 11521.44 12.2%
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11.9%
GDP 58665 9083 6.4588

7.1% 4.951.343.8 0.3
0.3
2011 32000 9.0% 1

61
-01087167575
2012
1581 16404 14015

3.6%9.1% 9.4% GDP 58665 9083
7.1% 4.951.643.5 4.951.3
43.8
2010 2010-2011
GDP19195.69
8.2% 1
124.94 0.7%
7959.69 6.5% 11111.06 9.5%
57.9% 0.6
82560
24
2007-2011
62
-01087167575
2012
16000.4 8.1%
136.2 0.9% 3744.4 6.6%
12119.8 8.6%
11
2011
16000.4
136.2
3744.4
3039.0
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GDP
0 3000
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63
-01087167575
2012
64
-01087167575
2012
2011
2010
12
%
8.12
25.98
52.41
64.61
77.63
55.71
61.33
63.75
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25.07
21.96
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3
65
-01087167575
2012
74.13%
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40%
60%
80%
25
2011 136.2 0.9% 3744.4

6.6% 12119.8 8.6%
2001 2011
32.7% 25.7%2011
73.2%
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58.50%
57.28%
37.57%
42.05%
3.93%
0.66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
26
66
-01087167575
2012
2011 124.94 0.7% 7959.69

6.5% 11111.06 9.5%
99%
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36.13%
43.52%
47.98%
51.58%
15.89%
4.91%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
27
1581 16404 14015

3.6%9.1% 9.4% 2010 5.051.9
43.1 4.951.343.8
67
-01087167575
2012
36.07%
41.35%
45.27%
52.51%
18.67%
6.13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
28
2011 3064.8 4% 25023.8

11.7% 20515.7 11.1%
6.351.542.2
38377.8 26.4%
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20686.6 11% GDP 42.6%
1
26090.3
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8262.1
12.4% 17%
68
-01087167575
2012
44.43%
45.95%
41.00%
52.47%
14.57%
1.58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
29
12
2011 159.09
3.8% 5878.02 18.3% 5153.88
14.6% 1.452.546.1
44% 38%
38.51%
47.31%
11.86%
39.11%
49.63%
13.58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
30

69
-01087167575
2012
2011
726.22 1.2% 2334.02 20.7%
2641.60 14.2%
1950 215 455
409 331
275 385
197 2610
15 415
33.81%
37.29%
15.10%
48.17%
51.09%
14.54%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
31
2011 13.5150.2836.21
2007
70
-01087167575
2012
34.40%
36.06%
17.40%
54.56%
48.20%
9.38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
32
2011 1304.91 5.8%

8092.07 17.8% 4849.13 11%
2010 9.454.536.1 9.256.834.0
37
50
71
-01087167575
2012
35.80%
54.16%
11.07%
32.30%
53.13%
13.54%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
33
2011 74.35 3.4% 209.54

18.3% 321.94 11.6%
55.7%
15.3%
27.00%
40.04%
13.60%
44.62%
59.40%
15.34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
34
2011 1105.81 4.0%

72
-01087167575
2012
3223.93 15.8% 2606.04 14.7%

617.89 20.8% 2890.40
11.5% 15.344.740.0
17.9%
25%
GDP
73
-01087167575
2012
74
-01087167575
2012
13
10
10
2010 GDP 85 GDP

21% 250% 28% 2008
2010
2010 1 8
2008-2020
2012
9
2004 8 3
10
2000 1
2000 3
2004 3
2006 4 13
22
2008
75
-01087167575
2012
1/5 1/4
14

10
8
8
6
2010
2000
2000
2010 3
1994 10 8
7 2

76
-01087167575
2012
9
24437
14 4283 612008 GDP
29745.58 4342.843 10%2010 1 8
2008-2020 2012
9
80000 2020
135000
573
10
2+8+4
18.34 8500
2+8+4
77
-01087167575
2012
15
10
8
6
10.7% 28.1% 19.5% GDP
40%
3.61 28.1% 2.44
78
-01087167575
2012
2005
16
8
7
8
140
111 83
1
13 2 8
79
-01087167575
2012
2003 10
156 58
80
-01087167575
2012
2010
2010
466.5 26.7%
10.7 334.4 31.3 100.8
20.5%34.4% 40%
8
17
43.6%
6+1
12 3 685
71.4%2002 3.67 28.8%2003
22660 16.8%
81
-01087167575
2012
40%
1999
12
711999
29 752000 2008
102 17400
2000 2010 9 1270
2011 18 4689
2011
30
82
-01087167575
2012
18
10
10 14 1.1
7+2
110 76 42
22
6+2
10
72.2
6+1 200
6+2
8+2
2008
83
-01087167575
2012
74
30 10 8
2 10
10
84
-01087167575
2012
19
10
8
6
8
10
8
6
7
10
8
8
6
8
7
10
8
8
6
10
8
10
10
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1
11
27
12
2
13
28
23
3
14
15
29
16
24
4
17
18
30
5
19
6
7
8
10
20
21
9
25
31
26
22
85
-01087167575
2012
2011
2011
20
GDP
7
7
10
7
7
10
7
7
7
10
10
7
7
7
10
10
7
7
10
7
0
7
10
5
5
0
7
5
0
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5
GDP
3
5
3
3
5
3
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
3
3
5
5
3
3
3
5
5
5
3
3
5
3
5
5
3
2011
GDP
5
5
3
3
5
5
5
3
5
5
5
3
5
3
5
3
3
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1
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3
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10
8
6
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6
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6
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35
32
25
21
27
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16
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20
6
26
22
13
8
25
28
31
14
30
29
27
24
35
35
36

86
-01087167575
2012
GDP
GDP 3
2011
41.41%25.07%
16
GDP
25 35
25 30
2011 GDP4.5
3
9.7%37.4%
GDP
87
-01087167575
2012
15 25
GDP GDP 16117 GDP
GDP 0
1634 GDP
15
15
0
88
-01087167575
2012
2011
1980
1994
89
-01087167575
2012
90
-01087167575
2012
35
2011
2011 103740.01 2010
1500 105240.01
108929.67 21.2 2892
1918.34 113740.01
8500
91
-01087167575
2012
21
2011
3006.3
1454.87
1737.4
1213.2
1356.67
2640.5
850.1
997.4
3429.83
5147.9
3151
1463.4
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6
17
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10
5
7
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3
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3
5
5513.70 22.1% 4547.53

19.6%
92
-01087167575
2012
5147.9
26.2% 1068 4069.6 14.2%
3455.7 25.7%
2602.4 21.1% 75.3%
3429.83 19.4% 416.7

7.2% 1041.49 11.5% 314.95
20.6% 731.05 20.6%
2011 5925 21%

2.2 3151 20.8% 0.9
3006.3 27.7%
237.8 1071.5 13.2% 25.3%
683.7 272.9 33.3% 26.7%
8004.7 24%
2666.6 26.7%
2640.5 31.7% 1974.5

30.2% 556.2 22.6% 218.3
15.6% 76.9 19.8%
2044.4 30.9% 1537.0

30.2% 4673.8 9.8%
93
-01087167575
2012
3020.1 2010 25.4%

1737.4 30.4% 1348.1 25.5% 3509.6
24.4%
2851.22 24.3%
1721.56 24.6% 1262.79 24.2%
73.4%
2011 2596.12 26.3% 5.0

1501.16 30.4% 6.9
83.5%
2011 2577.97 121.64%

776.87 43.13%
28.27% 1078.9
110.46% 236 28% 1499.07
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1470.12 45.4% 1066.88
37.1%
2632.8 27.6% 1463.4

27.3% 27.9% 29.9%

94
-01087167575
2012
44.8%
2460.66 581.95 30.98%

1461.76 35.1%
1454.87 36.1%
6
1004.25 29.3% 69%
45.1% 24.3% 18.6% 21.1%
2261.81 1356.67
30.1% 26.8%
2260.6 24.9% 1213.2

25.1% 872.7 26.0%
775.3 25.1%
2011 2258.2 448.9

24.8% 2000
1110.8 239.6 27.5%
881.7 25.6% 229.1
35.5%
1645.0 34.2% 1053.4

35.4% 14.2% 1.2
1368.7 32.5% 83.2%
10 40
45

95
-01087167575
2012
1620.3 32.5%
997.4 32% 145.5 17.8% 218.9
32% 80.8 31.1% 34
35.8%
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22.7% 644.64 20.7%
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1330.08 37.2% 773.18

44.9% 2244.32 36.8%
720.9 220.33 44%
933.62 25.28%
450.35 27.37% 48.95 11.01%
110.05 26.72% 28.53 42.76%
14.06 26.34% 1790.25 21.90%
2011
689.84 30.5%
340.09 25.5% 24.8% 0.7
96
-01087167575
2012
371.38 29.5
219.96 43.2 24.40 20.0
80.11 24.16 7.50
42.571.6 34.5
270.40 31.9%
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28.1%28.0% 28.8%
64.53 2010 52%

54.76 49.4%
15%
2009 2007-2011
20%
97
-01087167575
2012
22
%
22.2
28.5
23.0
16.2
31.8
26.5
28.5
21.2
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25.6
19.5
28.0
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5
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3
3
3
3
98
-01087167575
2012
36
2007-2011
2007-2011 2011
2900 3900 40%
2011 1488.25 46.2%
2011
2011
725
19% 116 819.76 46.73%
99
-01087167575
2012
37
2007-2011
2007 100 2010 200 2011

300 33.3%
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73.3%
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60 50
100
-01087167575
2012
38
2007-2011
2011 2577.97 2010 776.87

43.13% 1499.07 540.86 56.45%
34.25%
15
2006 700 2011 2500

29.9%
101
-01087167575
2012
39
2007-2011
2011 14246.1 14.3%

5.8% 17.8% 11%
GDP
2006
22367.6 10.1%
2007
6 90%
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10% 2007
440 40%
2007
102
-01087167575
2012
40
2007-2011
2011 60583 127 04

7435
34 20954 183 32194
116
2011
2011
2012
103
-01087167575
2012
41
2007-2011
2007-2011 2009 2010 2011

2011
13.9%
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5.4% 6%
9.1% 17.4%
2010
2011 2011
2011
2500
6 3 2010 12 1
2011
104
-01087167575
2012
2010 33.1%
2010
29.6%
25.9%
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7%
42
2007-2011
2011 13668
5513 15.4% 22.1%
0.36 3.12 2.07
2012
2011
2012
2012

105
-01087167575
2012
43
2007-2011
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10.8% 20%
2010
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106
-01087167575
2012
44
2007-2011
2009 GDP
2010
2011 GDP
GDP GDP
45

2007-2011
107
-01087167575
2012
2007-2011 2009
2011 2260.57 24.85%
2000 1213.2 25.12% 1000
2368.89 22.84%
2011
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2009
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13.9%
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2010 2011
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2500
6 3 2010 12 1
2011
108
-01087167575
2012
2005
30 20
40%30%-40%20%-30% 20%
109
-01087167575
2012
23
0.33
0.41
0.32
0.31
0.35
0.31
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0.36
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110
-01087167575
2012
GDP
GDP GDP
30%
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GDP
30
30
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0.28
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=/
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GDP GDP
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GDP
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111
-01087167575
2012
GDP
1 5 1
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2010
25
2011
2.41
1.72
2.16
1.75
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1.83
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112
-01087167575
2012
2.5 GDP 2.5
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113
-01087167575
2012
26

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
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2006
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93.53
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28649.79
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114
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2012
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2011
0.93
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115
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2012
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116
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2012
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117
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2012
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118
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2012
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119
-01087167575
2012
BBB AAA 87 61
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2012
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2012
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2012
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123
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2012
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2012
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-01087167575
2012
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2012
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127
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2012
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128
-01087167575
2012
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129
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2012
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131
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132
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2012
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133
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2012
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134
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2012
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135
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2012
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2012
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2012
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138
-01087167575
2012
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139
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2012
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2012
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2012
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2012
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2012
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2012
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2012
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BB GDP
GDP
1 2
146
-01087167575
2012
010-87167575
010-87167575
E-mailwefore@163.com
2 1 1 6
http//www.wefore.com
http//sj.wefore.com
http//zc.wefore.com
147
-01087167575
2012
20
10 16
140
PE/VC
148
-01087167575

2012年中国地方政府信用评级风险分析报告

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2012年中国地方政府信用评级风险分析报告

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2012

: 2011 GDPGDP GDP

2011 ................................................. 119

2011 GDP ..................................................................................... 43

2011 GDP ............................................................................. 50

2011 GDP ......................................................................... 56

2008-2011 GDP ........................................................................................ 12

2009 PMI .............................................................. 15

2011 CPI ........................................................................................... 20

2007 CPIPPI ................................................................................. 21

2009 M1M2 ........................................................... 22

2007-2011 ................................................................................ 100

2007-2011 ................................................................................ 101

2007-2011 ............................................................................ 102

2007-2011 ................................................................................ 103

2007-2011 ................................................................................ 104

2007-2011 ................................................................................ 105

2007-2011 ................................................................................ 106

2007-2011 ............................................................................ 107

2007-2011 ................................................................................ 107

2011 GDP 9.2%

2011 471564 2010

2011 12% 2010

2011 36420.6 2010 22.5%

14.5%2011 12 3329.2 12.6%

2011 CPI 5.4%12 CPI 4.1%

2011 12 CPI 4.1

2011 M2 85.16 13.6 11

2011 58.2 14.3

1.82 2011 6.3009

2011 CPI 5.4% 4%

1978 28.2% 2011 10.1% 17.1

2011 6977 1058 17.9%

2011 103740 2010 24.8%

39900 7559 23.4%

2011 36420.6 2010 22.5%

1551.4 2010 263.7 14.5%2011 12

2011 5672.1 18.3%

2011 18601.6 16.2%

2011 52673.59 10% 2.4

34132 2007 16206 17926 GDP

2011 12503.8 12.2%

35.0% 489.4 6.2%

GDP 8750.95 13.7%

726.22 1.2% 2334.02 20.7%

2010 10.055.134.9 2011 9.557.533.0

2011 GDP 58665 9083 6.4588

6642 20.1% 2.2 2010

2 20467 15.5% 9.9%

2011 24907 14.4%

2006 GDP 1000 39

2011 GDP 2010

GDP GDP- GDP/ GDP*100%--------------------------1

2007 5252.76 2011

153.8 138.3 134.8 130.7

2011 5701.84 15.0%

726.22 1.2% 2334.02 20.7%

2011 12391.3 13.9% 10

2011 19594.19 13.8%

12.0% 2010 13.448.737.9 13.150.136.8

2011 GDP52673.59 10.0%

GDP 58665 9083 6.4588

1581 16404 14015

2011 136.2 0.9% 3744.4