Key Findings of the IPCC WG1 AR5

Fredolin Tangang IPCC WG1 Vice-Chair

Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude

IPCC WG1 AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
The IPCC has released its WG1 AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis on 27 Sept 2013 in Stockholm S!eden The S"mmar# $or Polic#makers %SP&' can (e do!nloaded $rom the IPCC !e(site http)**!!!+ipcc+ch and !!!+climatechan,e2013+or, This lect"re hi,hli,hts ke# $indin,s o$ the report -SP& TS .nderl#in, chapters/
Cover Page: Folgefonna glacier on the high plateaus of Srfjorden, Norway (6 !"# N, 6""# $%&

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Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

IPCC plenar# comprises o$ all co"ntries in the !orld IPCC 8"rea" comprises o$ 30 elected mem(ers !ith 1aria(le n"m(ers $or each o$ the W&7 re,ion9 IPCC elects its ("rea" mem(ers once in a :;7 #ears c#cle 3 !orkin, ,ro"ps 2 a Task 5orce on <GGI A"thors Contri("tors Re1ie!ers Re1ie! =ditors

Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Why IPCC?
Prior to the establishment of IPCC, growing number of literatures indicate the Earths climate system is warming due to increasing GHG concentration in atmosphere Independent, objective, fair and transparent assessment of the state of global climate system is required 5or this reason .nited <ations General Assem(l# %.<GA' >2 proposed the esta(lishment o$ IPCC and in 1?@@ IPCC !as esta(lished "nder W&7 and .<=P The IPCC provides such assessment and this becomes the source of information particularly to policy makers and UNFCCC on 1. Causes of climate change, 2. Potential impacts on built and natural systems and socio-economic, 3. Possible response options. IPCC had published 5 assessment reports and various other reports. The latest is the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), which was released on Sept 27, 2013, in Stockholm, Sweden.

IPCC Reports

FAR 1990

SAR 1995

TAR 2001

AR4 2007

AR5 2013

IPCC had produced 5 Assessment Reports plus several other special reports including the recently released SREX & SRREN.

SRREN (2011)

SREX (2012)

How IPCC produces these reports?

Independent research, Knowledge generation, publication of literatures by Scientific community

IPCC Assessment Process

IPCC Assessment Report

IPCC doesnt involve at this stage

IPCC Assessment Process

IPCC assessment is (ased on a1aila(le peer;re1ie!ed p"(lications

Key SPM Messages

19 Headlines
on less than 2 Pages

Summary for Policymakers ~14,000 Words 14 Chapters Atlas of Regional Projections 54,677 Review Comments by 1089 Experts
2010:

259 Authors Selected

2009:

WGI Outline Approved

10

The Relati1e Comprehensi1eness o$ IPCC WG1 AR5

IPCC 2013. Fig 1.3

Key Statement / Headline of IPCC WG1 AR5 SPM

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased

In the Northern Hemisphere, 19832012 was likely the warmest 30year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence)

(IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.1a)

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earths surface than any preceding decade since 1850.

Warming in the climate system is unequivocal

(IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.1b)

Over SEA increase trend ~ 1.0oC per century

Evidence from Paleoclimate Archives

IPCC 2013; Fig 5.7a)

Evidence from Paleoclimate Archives & Climate Simulation

(IPCC 2013; Fig 5.8a)
Continental-scale surface temperature reconstructions show, with high confidence, multi- decadal periods during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (year 950 to 1250) that were in some regions as warm as in the late 20th century. These regional warm periods did not occur as coherently across regions as the warming in the late 20th century (high confidence)

Temperature Ocean heat content Sea Level Snow Cover Glacier Arctic Sea-ice extent

(IPCC 2013. Fig TS.1)

Extreme weather & climate events became more frequent

(IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.2)

Wetter region gets more wetter and drier gets more drier since the second half of the 20th century

(IPCC 2013. Fig TS.3)

Glaciers and ice melting has accelerated in unprecedented speed in the last decade

40% increase since pre-industrial period Ocean observed 30% of these emitted CO2
(IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.4a)

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.

Ocean became more acidic

(IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.4b)

Contribution by Category to CO2 Emission

(IPCC 2013. Fig TS.4)

 Except volcanic, changes gradual Anthro. faster since ~1970, CO2 largest every decade since 1960s Time-averaged natural forcing small
(IPCC 2013. Fig 8.18)

(IPCC 2013. Fig TS.6)

(IPCC 2013. Fig 8.20)

Earth has been in radiative imbalance, with more energy from the sun entering than exiting the top of the atmosphere, since at least circa 1970. It is virtually certain that Earth has gained substantial energy from 19712010.

Detection and Attribution

(IPCC 2013. Fig 1.13)

 Periods of little or no warming can arise from internal variability Internal variability causes to a substantial degree the difference between the observations and the simulations (medium confidence)
(IPCC 2013.Box TS.3 Fig.1)

Climate Models Responses to Various Forcings

Natural + Anthropogenic Natural CO2 forcing only

(IPCC 2013. Fig TS.9)

(IPCC 2013. Fig 10.7)

Human influence on the climate system is clear

(IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.6)

Future Climate Projections

For future climate projections, climate models requires Emission Scenarios. Models in AR5 use Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)

Indicative Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing (RF) for RCPs

RCP= Representative Concentration Pathway
(IPCC 2013. Box TS.6)

(IPCC 2013. Fig 1.15)

Projected Global Average Temperature Change by end of 21st Century

The temperature increase during the last 100 years was only about 0.8oC.

(IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.7a)

Projected Global Average Temperature Change by end of 21st Century

3-4oC projected increase over Southeast Asia region

The temperature increase during the last 100 years is only about 0.8oC.

(IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.8a)

Projected Precipitation Change by end of 21stSome Centuryregions will become

more wetter and others become more drier. Extreme precipitation events over wet tropical regions will very likely become more intense and more frequent

(IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.8b)

Arctic will be nearly ice-free by st the end of the 21 century

(IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.8c)

(IPCC 2013. Fig TS.20a)

Ocean will be more acidic by st the end of the 21 century

(IPCC 2013. Fig TS.20b)

El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

There is high confidence that ENSO will remain the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, with global effects in the 21st century. Due to the increase in moisture availability, ENSO-related precipitation variability on regional scales will likely intensify.

Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century

(IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.9)

IPCC 2013 Fig 13.20b

0.4-0.6 m projected SLR around Southeast Asia region

Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions

(IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.10)

RCP2.6 would be the Emission Scenario to follow if we were to cap warming at 2oC

SUMMARY
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased Human influence on the climate system is clear Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions

Further Further Information Information

www.climatechange2013.org

Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude