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SELECTA
Contents
1. Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 2 1.1. Content Analysis ................................................................................................................ 2 1.2. Reliability Analysis ............................................................................................................ 2 1.3. Missing Considerations and Contrast ................................................................................. 2 1.4. Analysis conclusions .......................................................................................................... 4 2. Proposal of an action plan ......................................................................................................... 5 2.1. Inceptive chosen proposal .................................................................................................. 5 2.2. Critical points to be considered .......................................................................................... 6 2.3. Improvement ideas to be considered .................................................................................. 8 2.4. Middle term solution .......................................................................................................... 9 2.4.1. Critical points to be considered ................................................................................. 10 2.4.2. Improvement ideas to be considered ......................................................................... 10 2.5. Alternative batteries charging method ............................................................................. 12 2.5.1. Critical points to be considered ................................................................................. 13 2.5.2. Improvement ideas to be considered ......................................................................... 13 3. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 14 References ................................................................................................................................... 17
ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY: CONDEMNED TO DECREASE? 3 SELECTA developed in a near future) sources are not mentioned. Such energies, as solar energy, wind, geothermal and biomass, are expected to cover the lack of energy left by petroleum. According to several historical data and forecasts, the investments on new renewable energy sources have gradually increased in the last years and are expected to keep growing in the near and maybe far future. This fact has been confirmed by Bloomberg New Energy Finance in its study GE2M Analysis and is shown in Figure 1 (1).
Consequently, renewable energies production is expected to experience a gradual increase in the next years, especially from solar, wind and biomass sources. A study worked out by the U.S. Energy Information Administration has published an optimistic forecast in which this fact concerns1 (see Figure 2) (2).
Figure 2. Renewable electricity generation by type, including end-use generation, 2008-2040 (Billion Kilowatt-hours)
In addition, common technologies are likely to adapt to the use of these kinds of energies. One of the most petrol-consuming sectors is self-propelled vehicles. Regarding a study carried out by Navigant Research (3), the average annual growth rate of the electric vehicle industry is forecasted to grow about 225% in the next seven years (see Fig. 3). It is also claimed that combined worldwide sales of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles will reach 6.6 million annual units by 2020 and become almost 7% of the total light-duty vehicle market.
An Excel file containing the data that has been plotted in Figure 3 can be downloaded in the next link: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/excel/fig83_data.xls (2)
Figure 3. Annual light duty electric vehicle sales by drivetrain, world markets: 2013-2020 (3)
Consequently, a lack of fossil resources would have a dramatic effect on this sector. Despite the existence of solar-powered aircraft, these are mostly experimental demonstrators and this concept has not been extended to commercial aviation.
Team Good Work Critical point 1. Although the graphene solution can store more amount of energy, it has the same problem as the solar energy: it has no power to undertake the current flights and velocities. It is not efficient enough. Team Selecta Counterpoint In response to the first critical point exposed by Good Work "it has no power to undertake the current flights and velocities. It is not efficient enough." I partly agree with you. On the one hand it is right that it might never be possible to create hyper sonic solar powered engines. Nevertheless, as time goes by the cruise speed of solar aircraft may catch up to the speed of turboporp airplanes. However, this does not implies this tecnology to be unefficient, as it generates enough energy to propel at an acceptalbe speed an aircraft. Team PRO Critical point 2- For certain phases of flight like the take-off, the power developed by the engines with this technology will certainly not be enough.
ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY: CONDEMNED TO DECREASE? 7 SELECTA 3- In addition, the dependence of this technology in the weather is a huge limitation for all the logistics and schedules that are involved in air traffic control. Operators cannot have a fleet of aircrafts that can only fly with good weather. Team Selecta Counterpoint Second critical point: "For certain phases of flight like the take-off, the power developed by the engines with this technology will certainly not be enough". However, as it is shown in the following figure, there is already enough power so as to enable the take-off with common solar panels.
Third critical point: "the dependence of this technology in the weather is a huge limitation". To refute this critical point, it should be highlighted, as it is written in the Graphene proposal: "This material reacts to a wide range of electromagnetic frequencies, including infrared and ultraviolet waves. Furthermore, it allows a highly efficient energy conversion (it is usually claimed that it might be the solution for global energetic issues). Thus, photovoltaic energy can be produced even in overcast scenarios". Therefore, this aircraft powered with graphene solar panels could fly no matter the weather.
Team A por ello! Critical point 1. Although you could use for flight phases that require less energy like a cruise phase, the necessary area of photovoltaic panels would be disproportionately large, so it is not feasible. Today, an aircraft without passengers need a wingspan of a Boeing 787 to fly with solar energy. Team Selecta Counterpoint In response to the second Critical point exposed by A por ello! "The necessary area of photovoltaic panels would be disproportionately large", it has to be highlighted that graphene panels are a 60% more efficient than common panels, and hence, far fewer area might be required. Team Anima Victrix Critical point 2. They do not tell us, if this energy form could be applied to another industries considering that applying it firstly to a lower industry the results could be easier to be interpreted.
The development of graphene solar panels would enable to power other transport means, as it is showed in the following picture, an sketch of a solar ship.
Use satellite navigation instead of using radar navigation. With satellite navigation more freedom is reached and operators can have a better performance with smoother descents and ascents. Use electricity from solar panels to empower the aircraft during the taxi. This electricity is load during the flight and it is enough for a taxi procedure. Use bigger aircraft to be able to carry more people on flight with a similar fuel consumption (the increase in fuel consumption is really compensated by the amount of people this aircraft can take). Use more efficient aircraft, such as the A320neo, with larger fans, best aerodynamic shapes, lighter materials (composed materials) and more lift to drag coefficient (efficiency) by using winglets, which prevent from having wingtip vortices (induced drag).
A detailed study to reach the most efficient option(s) (Estimated time: 2014-2015) Develop in more detail the chosen existing technology (Estimated time: 2015-2017) Implement the aforementioned technology to the aeronautical industry (Estimated time: 2017-2020)
Budget and required resources For each stage we will need different means:
We will need a team of aeronautical and energy engineers to choose the best alternative and improvement to be applied in the aeronautical field.
ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY: CONDEMNED TO DECREASE? 10 SELECTA This financial part of the project can be carried out by affected and interested organizations such as ICAO, Eurocontrol, ESA, FAA, JAA and with the support of manufacturers and operators that are going to implement this technology to save costs.
To implement the aforementioned technology to the aeronautical industry (Estimated time: 2017-2020)
This phase can be financed by operators and manufacturers (Airbus, Boeing), which see the potential of the improvements and its application to the reality.
ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY: CONDEMNED TO DECREASE? 11 SELECTA aircraft while enlarging the service life of the aircraft. As we can see on the following figure, the composites have already been implemented in the construction of current jetliners.
3. Harvesting body heat by collecting the energy produced by the passengers during the flight using special seats. This energy could be useful to power some systems on-board or on the ground.
4. Locate the engines at the rear and semi-embedded, which has been lately proved to optimize the fuel burn.
Team Silicon Angels Critical point 1. Storing energy proceeding from wind and solar power has been one of the most difficult aspect when talking about this kind of energy sources. So, a huge study on how to storage they may be done. 2. In case that the way of storing it is founded, what about the time necessary to obtain the total energy required by an aircraft and the effect of the weight of the batteries?
Team Good Work Critical point 1. These electric batteries should be rechargeable during the flight and use them to complement other source of energy. 2. Find funding in interested organizations besides the countries in themselves. Team Warc Critical point Invest in the development of other type of solar cells that will be able to provide enough energy.
Solar energy could be generated on board locating solar panels made of graphene on the body of the aircraft. his material reacts to a wide range of electromagnetic frequencies, including infrared and ultraviolet waves. Furthermore, it allows a highly efficient energy conversion (it is usually claimed that it might be the solution for global energetic issues). Thus, photovoltaic energy can be produced even in overcast scenarios, where high frequency waves reach the earth surface.
Do not design aircraft with fixed batteries, but with swappable batteries. This way, the time of the stop would be generally restricted by the passengers boarding and getting out, but not the batteries charging period.
3. Conclusions
This report concerns the oil reserves exhaustion and it attempts to establish an alternative energy source. The objectives set at the beginning of this Big thinking project are firstly to value the scope of this affection and the timeframe enabled by the spare oil sources through a video, which has been taken as main source of information. Secondly, if this raised issue was a real challenge in the aeronautical field, a potential plan had to be designed based on a common proposals exchange platform. The lack of fossil energy resources will represent a great challenge for the industry, as most of it is based on this type of resources. Thus, economic growth seems not to be viable. More specifically, the aeronautical industry wont be able to continue existing if there is a lack on the fuel resources, as the engines could not be powered. New kinds of energy and ways of obtaining it are appearing nowadays as a solution to the lack of fuel, and it is needed more research in this field so as to be prepared in the future when no fossil resources are available. All in all, from this video it was concluded that petrol abridgement is a foreseeable serious challenge for the air transport, and hence an action plan is due to be designed. Nowadays, several potential energy sources could likely be successfully developed. The current most developed alternative is biodiesel, taking into consideration the fact that some prototypes powered by half biodiesel and oil have been released and their heat of combustion is only 9% less than the one of oil (4) . Nonetheless, this kind of energy source is non-clean and nonrenewable. Thereupon, this could entail an over-polluted environment and the mankind selfdestruction (5). Otherwise, all other energy reservoirs havent been developed beyond the first aircraft specimens (such as solar or hydrogen powered single-seat aircraft) (6). Because of the delay of these proposals, the compulsory use of biodiesel might be involved. On the one hand, the option of graphene solar panels and batteries is objectively solid. This promising material has been observed to be seriously efficient both to store electric energy and to capture solar radiation, no matter the flight metrological conditions (even at night scenarios graphene cells do generate energy (7)). Furthermore, the capability of grapheme batteries is powerful enough so as to propel the aircraft system (8). Considering the graphene features, all possible feasibility and critical points of this air transport model have been studied and subsequently discarded, after a thorough analysis (9). To carry out this proposal, a sensitive plan has been designed, in such a way that to develop this long term idea, other short term solutions had to be taken into account to solve any oil shortage problem during the incoming decade. This back up plan is sketched as a middle term solution, comprising the optimization of fuel consumption, both oil and already in improvement phase biofuel (10) , and other inflight material and air navigation improvements (11).
ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY: CONDEMNED TO DECREASE? 15 SELECTA On the other hand, this middle term solution is prone to be used to ensure a safety margin (12) while graphene powered aircraft are implemented. They should be backed up by another fuel type, either biofuel or current oil. However, if the aforementioned fuel optimizations (10) are undergone, the reserve fuel required for this safety margin would be minimal. Furthermore, these fuel optimization improvements ought to be carried out not only to support solar powered flights safety, but also to reduce the oil usage during the last decades of fossil fuel availability. To enhance the flight performance swappable batteries could be catered to departing aircraft, optimizing the airport handling time (7). Thereupon, a ground energy source would be required for the new air transport system. Here is where renewable solar and wind energy (13) plays its role. Besides the air transport, these graphene solar cells and batteries are prone to be implemented in other transport means (7), such as solar ships and vehicles. Due to this fact, this energy source shows a higher potential than other proposals mentioned in the common alternatives platform, such as the ionosphere and biojet effect (14) based energy. From this plan it can be derived that the research is not only focused on only one energy source, but 3: graphene solar cells and batteries, renewable energies and biofuel with optimized usage. Due to the research variety of the aforementioned proposal, it would be a safe multi-aimed research, which uses the benefits of all current biofuel and fuel optimization advances together with already developed renewable energy. To ensure this plan implementation several resources are required. Firstly, to produce graphene solar panels and batteries, a flagrant source of the mineral graphite is needed. This rises the advantage that natural minerals rich in carbon (15), from which graphene can be obtained are cheap and naturally abundant and would unlikely have a usage boundary (16). The production substructure needed would be the creation of more coal mines and a research in worlds areas wealthy in carbon minerals. Finally, a study regarding the procurance optimization of graphene from the natural sources and the promotion of mining engineering and miners is seen to be involved to make an efficient production process. Secondly, whilst renewable energy might imply a bigger infrastructure conditioning and natural landscape alteration, these plants have the advantage of being non lasting and zero polluting. Thirdly, safety reserve fuel with improved efficiency appliances are already due to be directly implanted. Consequently, this research field demands fewer investment and scientific and engineering manpower in comparison to graphene research. Turning to the investigation model, whether the scientific and technology discoveries exchange took place faster and international collaboration among private and state-owned enterprises were promoted, the estimated economical sources, researchers and elapsed time until the efficient execution would be remarkably decreased. Otherwise, if the existing research system comprising private companies (which keep advances secretly, as currently Samsung, Apple and IBM do (17)) is hold as a racing for the patent, research budged, human resources and forecasted time schedule multiplies. At last, the feasibility of this project ought to be analysed repeatedly during the development process (18), insofar as other potential and more efficient solutions are not discarded. As global conclusion of this study, the prime solution of the air transport fuel comprises a change of both transport system infrastructure and research model, being the last one the most important. No matter the investigation path chosen, whether the scientific investigation is
ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY: CONDEMNED TO DECREASE? 16 SELECTA smoothly shared and public, all enterprises devoted to develop a solution would save up time and money. However, it had to be borne in mind that it might be no efficient solution to get over the oil lack in the aerospace field. Then, under these circumstances, in spite of using an ineffective solution with a huge environmental damage, it might be more reasonable to change our model of life and economy. Business trips can be substituted by 3D real feel high definition teleconferences, touristic trips and cargo could use ships powered by alternative energy source as a mean of transport. Overall, this project objectives established beforehand have been entirely successfully accomplished, since the oil scenario has been concluded to be objectively primordial problem which has to be undoubtedly solved if the air transport system is desired to keep on existing. Right after, a feasible plan has been intended given the current public research information. In the end, at this point it ought to be quoted Mr Ford, the sponsor of the development of the mass production assembly line. This personality did understand the relevance of collaborative work, and applied them effectively to produce the first middle class aimed car, immediately becoming "the most important industrial company in the history of the United States" (19). As Mr Ford said, it is not sufficient to come together and stay together in peace, but to investigate, obtain and develop together a feasible solution to the sole problem which could drastically alter all our present life standards.
Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success; Henry Ford
References
1. Boomberg New Energy Finance. GE2M Analysis. 2. U.S Energy Information Administration . Solar, wind, and biomass lead growth in renewable generation, hydropower remains flat. 2013. 3. Hurst, Dave y Gartner, John. Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts. 2013. 4. Diggers, The Sillicon. Use of biodiesel in the aeronautics industry, proposal. 5. Selecta. The sweetest fuel ever (Silicon Angels), 1st Critical point. 6. Warc. Hydrogen engines, the proposal. 7. Selecta. Anima Victrix counterpoint regarding the main proposal. 8. . Graphene: The future of photovoltaic energy, the proposal. 9. . Graphene: The future of photovoltaic energy,the counterpoints. 10. Goodwork. Improve fuel consumption with existing technology, the proposal. 11. Improve fuel consumption with existing technology (Good Work), the improvement. Electronics, GarcaEstradaZheng. 12. PRO. 2nd Critical point. 13. Electronics, GarcaEstradaZheng. Aircraft with electrical engines charged by renewable energy, the proposal. 14. Victrix, Anima. Ionosphere and biojet effect, proposal. 15. Is Natural Graphite the Best Graphene Source Material? news, Graphete investing. Friday November 15, 2013. 16. Scientists Create Graphene Quantum Dots from Coal. McLeod, Charlotte. s.l. : Graphite Investing News, Monday December 9, 2013. 17. Naik, Gautam. Wonder Material Ignites Scientific Gold Rush. The Wall Street Journal. Aug. 24, 2013 . 18. Victrix, Anima. Graphene: The future of photovoltaic energy, improvements. 19. "How General Motors Was Really Saved: The Untold True Story Of The Most Important Bankruptcy In U.S. History". Alix, Jay. s.l. : Forbes, 30 October 2013.