NiveshDaily

December 19, 2013

INDICES
Indices

Previous (day) Close

% chg

Sensex
Nifty

20,859.86
6,217.15

+1.20%
+1.27%

(As on 18th December, 2013)

FROM RESEARCH DESK

Economy Update
Mid-Quarter | Monetary Policy Review: December 2013 | One more uncertainty added

Global Markets - Outlook

IndiaNivesh Universe | Valuation Table

Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research
Mobile: +91 77383 93371, 99205 94087
Tel: +91 22 66188826
daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in

IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited

601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.

Economy Update

MID-QUARTER

December 19, 2013

Monetary Policy Review: December 2013

One more uncertainty added

Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan surprised the market by
leaving the repo rate and unchanged at 7.75% in the mid-quarter monetary policy
review of December 2013 despite high inflation (WPI and CPI) persisting. In view of
the high inflation, the market players and economists were expecting a hike of 25
bps in the repo rate to stem inflation.

Mobile: +91 77383 93371, 99205 94087

Tel: +91 22 66188826
daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in

Monetary and Liquidity Measures:

Kaushal Patel
Research Associate

On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation,

the RBI has decided to:

Keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF)
unchanged at 7.75%; and

Keep the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4.0% of
net demand and time liability (NDTL).

Mobile: +91 77383 93414

Tel: +91 22 66188834
kaushal.patel@indianivesh.in

Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF will remain unchanged at 6.75%,
and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 8.75%.

Policy Stance and Rationale:

Both retail and wholesale inflation have increased mainly on account of food prices.
Excluding food and fuel prices, WPI and CPI inflation were quite stable. In addition
to, there are some indications which are showing softening of vegetable prices in
December 2013. Apart from food inflation, disinflationary impact of exchange rate
stability has also not been captured fully into current prices.
However, RBI has clearly mentioned that if food inflation will not come down
significantly in the coming months than RBI may take some stringent actions in the
next policy meet, including off-policy dates to stem inflationary pressure.

Our Take:
With the persistence of high inflation, markets were expecting 25 bps rate hikes
today but the RBI surprised the market with no change in the key policy rates. As
there was no change in key policy rates, banks are expected to keep deposit and
lending rates unchanged. So, this was a big positive for the rate sensitive industries
like banks, real estate, auto and capital goods sector. The yields of longer maturity
bonds might come off temporarily but it will remain under pressure as inflation
fears will continue which will rule out further rate hike in the future.
RBI wants to give more time to the policy actions taken till now before taking any
new policy action. RBI expects a sharp fall in inflation in coming months. According
to us, it was just a postponement of action and it was also clearly mentioned in
todays RBI policy that it may take actions at any time, if the situation warrants.
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00

IndiaNivesh Research

1-Feb-13

1-Aug-12

1-Nov-12

1-Feb-12

1-May-12

1-Aug-11

1-Nov-11

1-Feb-11

1-May-11

1-Aug-10

1-Nov-10

1-Feb-10

1-May-10

1-Aug-09

CRR as % of NDTL

Repo Rate (%)

Source: RBI, IndiaNivesh Research

1-Nov-09

1-Feb-09

1-May-09

1-Aug-08

1-Nov-08

1-Feb-08

1-May-08

1-Nov-07

1-Jul-13

1-Oct-13

1-Jan-13

1-Apr-13

1-Jul-12

1-Oct-12

1-Jan-12

1-Apr-12

1-Jul-11

1-Oct-11

1-Jan-11

1-Apr-11

1-Jul-10

1-Oct-10

1-Jan-10

1-Apr-10

1-Jul-09

1-Oct-09

1-Jan-09

1-Apr-09

10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00

Source: RBI, IndiaNivesh Research

IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited

601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.

Global Markets - Outlook

Dharmesh Kant
AVP - Strategies & Fund Manager (PMS)
Mobile: +91 77383 93372
Tel: +91 22 66188890
dharmeshh.kant@indianivesh.in

Global Market Update

US Markets: Two U.S. stock indexes notched record closing levels on

Wednesday as markets interpreted the Federal Reserves decision to begin
the tapering of bond purchases in January as confidence in the underlying
strength of the economy and welcomed its commitment to low rates for a
considerable time.
The Fed policy makers voted to reduce monthly asset purchases to $75 billion
from $85 billion, citing improvement in the outlook for the economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee stressed its commitment to low shortterm interest rates well after bond purchases end altogether and added new
language that it plans to maintain the target Fed funds rates well past the
time that the unemployment rate declines below 6.5%.
Earlier, housing starts data showed construction of new homes soared to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million in November in the fastest
pace since February 2008, signaling that the housing markets recovery is
shaking off rising mortgage rates. The government reported surges in
construction of both single-family homes and apartments.

Days Performance: The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 soared
to close at all-time highs. The Dow added 293 points, or 1.8%, to 16,167.97,
topping its prior record close on Nov. 27. The S&P 500 index rose 30 points,
or 1.7% to 1,810.65, surpassing its previous record close on Dec. 9. The Nasdaq
Composite was up 16 points or 1.1% to 4,070.66.

Set ups on S&P 500, Dow Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 are looking
good and are trading in the all time high zone.

Emerging markets: Asian stocks rose, after the Federal Reserve expressed
enough confidence in the U.S. labor market to taper asset purchases while
still promising to hold interest rates close to zero.

Bullions & Commodities: Gold is trading at $1223.74 per troy ounce this
morning up 0.43% from previous close. WTI Crude future is trading at 97.70
per barrel while Brent Crude future is trading at $109.31 per barrel.

Currencies: The U.S. Dollar Index tracking the U.S. currency against a basket
of six others currencies trading at 80.56 this morning down (0.04%) from
previous close. Long term set ups up on Dollar Index are looking good. A
break above 84 on a weekly closing basis is required for new positional Bull
Run to begin in Dollar index. The likely upside then would be around 89 levels.
The dollar and U.S. stocks often trade on opposite paths, with a weak dollar
seen as providing investors with cheap funding to buy stocks. Plus the dollars
drop generally helps U.S. companies overseas sales.

Source: Bloomberg

IndiaNivesh Research

NiveshDaily

December 19, 2013 | 2

December 19, 2013

IndiaNivesh Universe | Valuation Table

Company Name
Auto
Ashok Leyland**
Bajaj Auto**
Eicher Motors** $$$
Exide Industries**
Hero MotoCorp**
Mahindra & Mahindra**
Maruti Suzuki India
Tata Motors Company**
TVS Motor Company**
SKF India** $$$
Swaraj Engines**

Rs.
CMP

Rs.
TP

Reco

%
(-) Down/(+) Up

16
1,928
4,960
116
2,124
948
1,730
369
58
654
590

NA
2,256
NA
147
2,414
995
NA
NA
NA
725
684

NOT RATED
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
BUY
BUY

NA
17.0
NA
26.6
13.7
4.9
NA
NA
NA
10.8
16.0

Information Technology
Infosys
Tata Consultancy Services
Wipro
HCL Technologies###
Tech Mahindra
NIIT Technologies
KPIT Cummins
Mastek
NIIT Ltd

3,457
2,056
522
1,197
1,728
349
165
135
25

3,630
2,430
546
1,006
1,868
345
145
193
46

HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY

5.0
18.2
4.7
-16.0
8.1
-1.0
-12.1
43.2
84.6

Oil & Gas

Cairn India
Gail India
Oil India
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation
Reliance Industries**

325
343
465
281
860

404
390
672
390
1,053

BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY

24.4
13.8
44.4
38.7
22.4

Capital Goods
Ingersoll Rand
Greaves Cotton
Crompton Greaves
Voltas
Bharat Heavy Elec (BHEL)
Kirloskar Oil Engines

360
66
130
116
164
155

491
74
88
71
176
NA

BUY
BUY
HOLD
SELL
HOLD
NOT RATED

36.4
12.5
-32.1
-39.0
7.6
NA

5,814
19,061
120,944
55,310
481,063
23,193

6,387
20,509
133,016
54,699
422,230
NA

1,095
180
1,753

NA
NA
NA

NOT RATED
NOT RATED
NOT RATED

NA
NA
NA

111,306
97,395
211,561

108,877
91,493
219,976

Cement
ACC$$$
Ambuja Cements$$$
Ultratech Cement

Sales (Rs. Mn)

FY13
FY14E

(CMP as of previous day)

FY15E

124,812 115,193 138,012

195,335 214,438 244,882
63,899
16,708
23,130
63,659
63,799
72,524
235,827 252,039 282,179
626,435 764,752 852,972
432,159 470,226 512,017
1,888,176 2,297,841 2,632,006
74,062
77,064
86,416
22,041
22,378
25,180
4,790
5,787
6,410

EBITDA (Rs.Mn)
FY13
FY14E
FY15E

PAT (Rs. Mn)

FY13
FY14E

FY15E

FY13

EPS (Rs.)
FY14E

FY15E

P/E (x)
FY14E FY15E

8,822
36,551
5,536
8,583
33,046
49,865
44,688
245,428
4,183
2,704
715

4,499
45,605
3,135
9,451
34,771
101,261
48,738
334,704
4,640
2,552
895

10,122
52,051
4,593
10,828
40,596
113,008
55,571
391,625
5,356
3,001
1,000

4,337
31,327
3,243
5,494
21,182
40,992
24,692
98,926
1,984
1,901
554

-1,993
35,602
2,789
5,979
21,686
44,933
28,849
136,793
2,381
1,832
658

2,324
40,953
4,078
6,968
28,583
51,705
34,824
163,727
2,894
2,169
727

1.6
108.3
119.4
6.5
106.1
66.8
81.7
30.7
4.2
36.0
44.6

-0.6
122.1
127.3
7.3
108.5
75.6
89.6
41.5
4.9
34.2
52.8

1.0
140.4
182.7
8.5
142.6
86.6
101.6
49.7
5.8
41.3
58.0

(25.9)
15.8
39.0
16.0
19.6
12.5
19.3
8.9
11.8
19.1
11.2

16.2
13.7
27.1
13.7
14.9
11.0
17.0
7.4
9.9
15.8
10.2

573,426
932,190
453,302
347,333
198,347
25,910
28,929
11,161
12,818

115,440
180,399
76,351
56,723
14,528
3,380
3,642
709
501

134,129
241,559
89,064
72,708
37,820
3,956
4,229
965
678

165,859
277,793
99,726
78,150
43,636
4,482
4,918
1,398
798

94,290
139,173
66,359
40,401
12,878
2,132
1,990
565
263

103,579
182,385
70,847
52,160
27,015
2,634
2,525
730
-322

125,920
208,811
79,328
55,573
29,752
2,772
2,893
787
-25

165.0
71.0
27.0
57.2
96.7
35.1
10.6
23.0
1.6

181.1
92.3
28.9
73.8
126.8
43.9
13.8
29.7
1.8

220.1
105.7
32.3
78.7
139.7
46.2
15.8
42.9
4.2

19.1
22.3
18.1
16.2
13.6
7.9
12.0
4.5
13.7

15.7
19.4
16.2
15.2
12.4
7.5
10.4
3.1
5.9

175,195 173,558 196,159

508,927 563,911 541,034
99,681 110,296 127,422
1,624,032 1,707,772 1,828,949
3,970,620 3,903,000 4,283,000

130,746
75,347
43,532
446,446
333,830

122,521
67,289
47,271
592,339
354,065

134,886
73,712
63,558
692,361
419,167

120,564
43,736
35,921
242,196
208,790

97,201
40,611
35,600
260,521
223,297

94,059
47,286
43,911
328,339
252,211

63.1
34.5
59.8
28.3
70.8

50.9
32.0
59.2
30.5
69.1

51.8
37.3
73.0
38.4
78.1

6.4
10.7
7.9
9.2
12.4

6.3
9.2
6.4
7.3
11.0

7,282
22,252
147,648
56,228
443,342
NA

521
2,406
3,832
2,473
109,922
3,497

632
2,400
6,284
2,027
51,703
NA

765
2,688
7,530
2,763
54,980
NA

779
1,480
-361
2,078
66,934
1,988

864
1,627
3,326
1,655
42,702
NA

969
1,647
4,282
2,147
43,107
NA

24.7
6.1
-0.6
6.3
27.3
13.7

27.4
5.1
5.1
5.0
17.4
14.2

30.7
6.7
6.3
6.5
17.6
15.4

13.1
12.9
25.5
23.3
9.4
10.9

11.7
9.8
20.6
17.9
9.3
10.1

119,460
99,430
236,749

21,967
27,827
48,400

14,069
16,018
46,415

16,561
17,131
51,848

10,593
12,932
26,777

10,734
10,334
26,947

12,647
11,520
29,594

56.3
8.4
97.7

57.2
6.7
98.3

67.4
7.5
107.9

19.2
26.9
17.8

16.3
24.1
16.2

403,520
629,895
374,256
255,811
68,731
20,214
22,386
8,835
9,608

502,103
810,600
404,838
316,124
180,097
23,270
26,714
10,055
10,215

IndiaNivesh Universe | Valuation Table (contd...)

Rs.
CMP

Rs.
TP

Reco

%
(-) Down/(+) Up

205
845
215
164
148

215
NA
NA
NA
180

HOLD
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
HOLD
BUY

5.1
NA
NA
NA
21.5

6,057
64,074
45,962
61,761
72,703

7,390
78,014
48,871
70,796
79,403

8,596
92,484
46,897
55,674
87,943

1,725
10,187
6,368
10,147
7,702

1,895
12,102
7,320
12,171
8,608

Pharma
Ajanta Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma
Alembic Pharma
Biocon
Cadila
Cipla
Divis Lab
Dr Reddy
Glenmark
Jubilant Life Science
Shasun Pharma
Lupin
Sun Pharma
Ipca Lab
Torrent Pharma
Ranbaxy**
JB Chemical

957
377
215
438
743
393
1,181
2,469
522
116
87
892
573
681
477
441
122

1,032
412
228
352
913
398
1,308
2,877
636
54
UR
915
638
757
495
UR
149

BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
SELL
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
NOT RATED
BUY

7.8
9.2
6.2
-19.6
23.0
1.3
10.8
16.5
21.9
-53.6
NA
2.6
11.3
11.1
3.8
NA
22.4

9,308
58,553
15,203
24,853
61,552
82,793
21,399
116,266
50,123
51,610
10,848
96,413
112,999
28,131
30,535
122,529
8,661

12,038
77,460
18,331
28,231
73,339
100,989
24,960
128,915
60,307
60,268
12,087
104,739
154,762
31,590
35,993
111,013
9,880

14,912
90,240
21,668
33,106
85,101
116,000
29,635
148,439
72,327
65,895
15,620
129,262
182,362
36,936
46,703
142,223
11,196

2,301
9,835
2,490
5,701
11,375
22,148
8,165
25,465
10,100
10,637
1,172
23,257
49,802
6,265
7,113
17,080
1,335

Others
Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd.**
BASF India Ltd.** &&
Cox & Kings**
Coromandel International Ltd.
Kajaria Ceramics**
Radico Khaitan Ltd.**
Sesa Sterlite **
United Phosphorus Ltd.

1,212
641
98
231
290
139
201
177

1,506
779
NA
279
NA
165
225
217

BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
NOT RATED
BUY
BUY
BUY

24.3
21.6
NA
20.8
NA
19.0
11.9
22.6

254,902
37,543
18,087
91,038
16,120
6,137
25,544
91,945

268,599
41,661
21,523
110,756
19,430
14,446
691,802
100,914

295,223
47,910
23,791
120,766
23,132
16,613
836,198
113,024

37,966
1,918
7,247
8,380
2,467
977
5,199
16,847

Company Name
FMCG
Bajaj Corp
Godrej Consumer Products**
Marico**
Dabur**
Tata Global Beverages**

Sales (Rs. Mn)

FY13
FY14E

FY15E

EBITDA (Rs.Mn)
FY13
FY14E
FY15E

PAT (Rs. Mn)

FY13
FY14E

FY15E

FY13

EPS (Rs.)
FY14E

FY15E

P/E (x)
FY14E FY15E

2,369
14,833
8,625
14,282
9,921

1,662
7,961
3,959
7,634
3,728

1,885
8,116
4,778
9,260
4,751

1,955
10,107
5,622
11,039
5,464

11.3
23.4
6.2
4.4
6.0

12.8
24.0
7.4
5.3
7.5

13.3
29.9
8.7
6.3
8.7

16.0
35.2
29.2
30.9
19.8

15.4
28.3
24.7
25.9
17.1

3,190
15,190
3,547
5,418
13,835
22,064
9,970
30,318
12,307
10,331
1,373
22,015
66,534
7,178
7,699
10,783
1,336

4,026
18,357
4,602
6,354
16,626
25,714
11,976
35,445
14,815
10,803
1,862
28,849
78,885
8,555
9,161
25,843
1,643

1,121
2,939
1,653
5,089
6,535
15,449
6,020
16,777
6,147
1,527
530
13,142
29,831
3,236
4,328
9,228
794

1,953
7,290
2,334
3,605
7,929
12,525
7,196
18,951
7,595
2,352
434
14,140
48,783
5,067
5,270
3,339
1,053

2,435
10,004
3,064
4,195
9,725
15,217
8,683
22,277
9,516
2,719
823
18,617
58,032
5,978
5,535
15,820
1,321

31.8
10.1
8.8
25.8
31.9
19.2
45.4
98.4
22.7
9.6
9.6
29.3
14.4
25.6
25.6
21.8
9.4

42.8
25.1
12.4
18.0
37.6
15.6
54.2
111.3
28.2
-2.3
7.9
31.6
23.1
37.8
30.6
5.4
12.4

50.7
34.4
16.3
21.0
47.2
19.0
65.4
130.8
35.3
17.1
14.9
41.6
26.5
46.3
35.1
36.0
15.6

22.4
15.0
17.3
24.3
19.7
25.2
21.8
22.2
18.5
(50.6)
11.0
28.2
24.8
18.0
15.6
82.4
9.8

18.9
11.0
13.2
20.8
15.7
20.7
18.1
18.9
14.8
6.8
5.8
21.4
21.6
14.7
13.6
12.3
7.8

47,207
2,279
8,720
11,408
2,805
2,252
249,500
17,047

54,115
2,573
9,659
13,043
3,444
2,691
292,038
19,627

10,589
1,141
2,484
4,353
1,045
386
22,803
7,746

12,484
1,497
3,010
6,341
1,196
979
71,536
8,337

16,003
1,688
3,290
7,800
1,555
1,212
91,185
10,054

91.5
23.6
18.2
15.4
14.2
3.7
25.4
17.1

98.2
34.6
22.4
22.4
16.3
7.4
26.1
18.8

127.3
39.0
24.7
27.6
21.2
9.3
32.2
22.7

12.3
18.5
4.4
10.3
17.8
18.9
7.7
9.4

9.5
16.4
4.0
8.4
13.7
14.9
6.2
7.8

IndiaNivesh Universe | Valuation Table (contd...)

Company Name
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Idea Cellular
Reliance Communication **

Infra
IRB Infra. Dev
IL&FS Trans. Networks
Reliance Infra
Engineers India
Larsen & Toubro
Jaiprakash Associates

Real Estate
Oberoi Realty
Phoenix Mills
Nesco
DLF**

Company Name
Power
Adani Power**
CESC Ltd
Coal India
JSW Energy**
NHPC
NTPC
Power Grid Corporation
Reliance Power **
Torrent Power**
Tata Power Company**

Sales (Rs. Mn)

FY13
FY14E

EBITDA (Rs.Mn)
FY13
FY14E
FY15E

PAT (Rs. Mn)

FY13
FY14E

FY15E

FY13

EPS (Rs.)
FY14E

FY15E

25,186
18,949
12,373

29,683
22,210
14,297

6.0
3.0
3.3

7.9
5.4
6.1

8.7
6.3
6.6

7.2
7.8
8.4

6.3
6.7
8.0

5,567
5,202
22,468
6,322
52,057
4,618

4,889
5,256
21,403
4,985
47,013
6,787

5,126
5,733
26,771
5,345
52,933
11,149

16.7
26.8
85.4
18.8
56.1
2.1

14.9
27.6
62.7
16.7
54.3
3.0

15.6
29.6
69.1
17.4
62.2
5.7

5.7
7.7
6.9
8.0
15.6
9.3

5.1
7.4
5.9
7.4
13.8
7.7

5,048
842
816
7,119

5,383
1,608
1,029
7,868

9,787
1,923
1,351
14,513

15.4
5.8
58.0
4.2

23.2
11.5
63.3
4.7

31.5
19.5
76.3
8.2

10.6
21.2
6.1
12.9

5.2
21.2
5.0
10.7

FY15E

FY13

EPS (Rs.)
FY14E

FY15E

323
6,723
213,901
10,367
26,601
143,550
57,666
7,723
4,239
12,333

-9.59
36.77
27.48
5.51
2.13
15.27
9.32
3.61
8.19
-0.36

-5.89
40.78
29.60
6.42
1.91
16.20
11.00
3.43
-0.50
3.59

0.58
49.37
33.90
6.26
2.15
17.40
12.45
4.13
8.80
5.15

Rs.
CMP

Rs.
TP

Reco

%
(-) Down/(+) Up

328
170
130

405
153
NA

BUY
SELL
NOT RATED

23.6
-9.9
NA

803,112
224,074
192,940

873,354
266,889
227,351

960,690
304,253
241,365

249,497
59,597
59,090

278,795
83,269
77,756

317,691
97,361
81,685

22,757
10,109
6,720

92
125
429
169
1,093
53

NA
156
NA
175
NA
66

NOT RATED
BUY
NOT RATED
HOLD
NOT RATED
BUY

NA
24.5
NA
3.9
NA
25.1

36,872
66,448
155,101
25,290
744,980
188,164

40,532
78,848
241,586
18,905
679,258
236,482

43,812
80,410
247,011
19,405
775,595
284,394

16,371
18,502
29,906
5,980
102,455
68,248

18,338
22,077
39,485
4,084
68,939
82,414

20,643
23,240
46,061
4,415
78,349
99,746

220
226
775
160

259
301
1,109
NA

BUY
BUY
BUY
NOT RATED

17.7
33.3
43.1
NA

10,417
4,699
1,413
77,728

11,383
11,348
1,790
87,377

21,176
13,354
2,402
100,327

4,853
2,159
913
40,284

6,133
2,648
1,039
26,969

6,133
2,648
1,257
33,302

Rs.
CMP

Rs.
TP

Reco

%
(-) Down/(+) Up

38
428
283
54
18
135
100
71
112
92

NA
NA
360
NA
NA
182
116
90
NA
106

NOT RATED
NOT RATED
BUY
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
BUY
BUY
BUY
NOT RATED
BUY

NA
NA
27.2
NA
NA
34.4
16.0
26.4
NA
15.7

Sales (Rs. Mn)

FY13
FY14E
67,748
75,707
683,027
89,343
64,021
693,768
131,155
49,266
79,701
330,254

127,243
57,846
827,997
94,641
67,793
820,887
158,674
73,678
94,311
375,660

FY15E

FY15E
179,896
61,309
819,917
96,564
76,558
896,381
182,475
63,220
104,787
395,195

EBITDA (Rs.Mn)
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
10,970
15,590
198,339
28,009
43,083
183,181
113,474
17,129
13,846
66,485

35,984
14,446
209,508
31,754
44,475
205,728
135,169
30,821
10,610
74,375

59,845
15,143
235,594
30,175
51,018
228,669
155,991
21,394
18,540
78,450

PAT (Rs. Mn)

FY13
FY14E
-22,950
4,594
173,564
9,037
26,174
125,908
43,126
10,115
3,867
-854

-15,769
6,395
187,020
10,713
23,601
133,780
50,815
10,519
-186
8,484

EV/EBITDA (x)
FY14E FY15E

P/BV (x)
FY14E FY15E
2.2
0.9
3.2
1.3
0.7
1.3
1.5
1.0
0.8
1.8

2.2
0.9
2.9
1.2
0.7
1.2
1.4
1.0
0.8
1.7

IndiaNivesh Universe | Valuation Table (contd...)

Net Interest Income (Rs. Mn)
Pre-Tax Pre-Prov. Profit (Rs.Mn)
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY13
FY14E
FY15E

PAT (Rs. Mn)

FY13
FY14E

Rs.
CMP

Rs.
TP

Reco

%
(-) Down/(+) Up

1,763
590
90
650
265
106
259
121
60
1,096
750
666
1,283
20
51

1,926
749
97
690
NA
NA
319
NA
NA
1,226
NA
NA
NA
NA
59

BUY
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
BUY
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
NOT RATED
BUY

9.2
27.0
8.2
6.2
NA
NA
23.2
NA
NA
11.9
NA
NA
NA
NA
16.8

611,731
155,121
48,927
119,556
34,765
45,375
79,269
75,931
38,254
165,992
48,134
161,663
96,886
12,808
2,844

774,908
160,668
55,557
123,448
38,168
47,297
87,551
81,393
40,801
163,900
54,516
188,060
NA
14,565
3,620

910,871
180,593
63,867
144,221
44,692
56,204
101,892
94,460
49,274
190,951
64,017
226,478
NA
17,272
4,431

404,565
101,539
33,900
87,097
30,514
30,701
56,376
48,155
25,524
151,342
33,585
114,277
90,052
8,198
1,221

453,366
107,299
39,393
94,514
30,926
29,172
62,167
55,331
28,547
156,763
41,095
141,945
NA
9,676
1,784

537,428
121,535
44,939
110,988
36,256
34,273
72,335
63,767
30,802
182,222
48,523
174,585
NA
11,385
2,352

179,162
49,542
12,119
48,042
14,432
16,094
29,697
21,566
12,845
96,036
21,885
68,696
52,348
5,023
1,021

LIC Housing Finance**

204
248
BUY
21.5
GIC Housing**
100
160
BUY
60.2
Bajaj Finance**
1,495
1,648
BUY
10.2
L&T Finance Holding**
70
81
HOLD
15.6
Max India+++
201
325
BUY
61.7
Note: ** Bloomberg Est; +++ Manufacturing Format; $$$ Calendar Year; ### Y/E June, && EBIT
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

15,901
1,642
19,710
14,316
105,620

19,219
NA
22,169
20,144
110,597

23,199
NA
27,069
24,332
123,866

14,462
1,130
11,813
7,137
10,804

18,511
NA
13,998
13,277
6,157

21,250
NA
16,998
16,556
6,943

10,475
850
5,913
7,305
7,841

Company Name
Banking & Financial Services
State Bank of India**
Punjab National Bank**
Allahabad Bank**
Bank of Baroda**
Corporation Bank**
Indian Bank**
Canara Bank**
United Bank of India**
Andhra Bank**
ICICI Bank**
Kotak Mahindra Bank**
HDFC Bank**
Axis Bank**
South Indian Bank**
Development Credit Bank**

FY15E

FY13

EPS (Rs.)
FY14E

FY15E

P/BV (x)
FY14E FY15E

150,310
40,728
14,467
45,038
10,361
12,153
26,236
18,855
10,433
94,654
25,023
83,859
58,554
5,181
1,426

179,959
50,922
16,269
52,527
14,099
14,661
31,643
23,666
12,709
109,767
30,028
104,342
68,746
6,141
1,766

266.8
145.6
24.2
116.7
NA
36.6
67.0
39.1
23.0
83.0
29.3
28.8
120.1
4.0
4.2

218.2
116.3
28.8
105.6
62.7
28.7
58.2
31.4
18.7
81.6
33.3
35.2
124.9
3.9
5.7

262.4
143.1
32.4
122.6
85.6
34.4
69.2
39.2
22.4
94.5
40.0
43.5
146.0
4.6
7.0

0.9
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
1.7
3.1
3.7
1.6
0.8
1.2

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
1.6
2.7
3.1
1.4
0.7
1.0

13,149
958
7,737
6,733
2,435

16,437
1,091
9,362
8,674
2,578

20.8
15.8
134.7
4.2
29.3

26.1
17.8
155.0
3.9
8.5

29.6
20.2
188.0
5.1
9.0

1.4
0.9
1.8
2.3
1.7

1.2
0.7
1.5
1.8
1.6

IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited

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Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899
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