ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, VOL. 27, NO.

4, 2010, 855–870

How Well do Existing Indices Measure the Strength

of the East Asian Winter Monsoon?
WANG Lin§1,2 ( ) and CHEN Wen1 ( )
1
Center for Monsoon System research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,

Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190

2
Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry,

State Oceanic Administration, Xiamen 361005

(Received 30 April 2009; revised 10 October 2009)

ABSTRACT
Defining the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) with a simple index has been a
di±cult task. This paper elaborates on the meanings of 18 existing EAWM strength indices and classifies
them into four categories: low level wind indices, upper zonal wind shear indices, east-west pressure contrast
indices, and East Asian trough indices. The temporal/spatial performance and prediction potential of these
indices are then analyzed for the 1957–2001 period. It reveals that on the decadal timescale, most indices
except the east–west pressure contrast indices can well capture the continuous weakening of the EAWM
around 1986. On the interannual timescale, the low level wind indices and East Asian trough indices
have the best predictability based on knowledge of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation,
respectively. All the 18 existing indices can well describe the EAWM-related circulation, precipitation, and
lower tropospheric air temperature anomalies. However, the variations of surface air temperature over large
areas of central China cannot be well captured by most indices, which is possibly related to topographic
eÆects. The results of this study may provide a possible reference for future studies of the EAWM.

Key words: East Asian winter monsoon index, interannual variation, interdecadal variation
Citation: Wang, L., and W. Chen, 2010: How well do existing indices measure the strength of the East
Asian winter monsoon? Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27(4), 855–870, doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9094-3.

1. Introduction to northeasterlies around 30± N and penetrates through

As one of the most active components in the
global climate system, the East Asian winter mon-
soon (EAWM) is an important climate feature over
East Asia in boreal winter (Lau and Li, 1984; Ding,
1994; Huang et al., 2003, 2007; Chan and Li, 2004;
Chang et al., 2006). At the surface, the EAWM is
characterized by a cold Siberian High, a warm Aleu-
tian Low, and strong northwesterlies along the east
flank of the Siberian High. This northwesterly flow
bifurcates south of Japan, with one branch turning
eastward toward the subtropical western and central
Pacific, and the other flowing along the coast of East
Asia (Lau and Li, 1984; Ding, 1994; Chen et al., 2000,
2005; Wang et al., 2009a). The southern branch turns
the South China Sea into the tropics. At 500 hPa,
there is a broad East Asian trough centered along the
longitudes of Japan. In the upper troposphere the
dominant feature is the East Asian jet stream with its
maximum located just to the southeast of Japan. This
jet stream is closely associated with intense baroclinic-
ity, large vertical wind shear, and strong advection of
cold air (Boyle and Chen, 1987; Lau and Chang, 1987;
Ding, 1994).
The variability of the EAWM exerts large influ-
ences on both Asia and remote regions. For exam-
ple, the intensity of the EAWM aÆects the wintertime
temperature and precipitation variations over China,
Korea, Japan and surrounding regions, where it has
profound economic and social impacts (e.g., Lau and

§ Corresponding author: WANG Lin, wanglin@mail.iap.ac.cn

© China National Committee for International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS), Institute of Atmospheric
Physics (IAP) and Science Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010
856 HOW WELL DO EXISTING INDICES MEASURE THE EAWM STRENGTH
Li, 1984; Ding, 1994; Huang et al., 2003, 2007; Chan
and Li, 2004; Chang et al., 2006). Additionally, it
may cause deep convection over the maritime con-
tinent through the intrusion of cold air (cold surge)
into the tropics (Chang et al., 2005), and may bring
about 50% of the annual rainfall to some Southeast
Asian countries (Cheang, 1987). The associated la-
tent heat release serves as the major heating source of
the wintertime Asian monsoon (Chang et al., 2006),
and gives rise to strong midlatitude-tropical interac-
tions, through which the EAWM spreads its influence
to the global scale (Chang and Lau, 1980, 1982; Lau
and Chang, 1987; Compo et al., 1999; Chen et al.,
2000; Yang et al., 2002).
Given this importance, it is necessary to quantify
the strength of the EAWM and its variability with an
appropriate and simple index. In many cases tempera-
ture is regarded as the most important meteorological
variable in East Asian winter and has direct relation-
ship with the social and economic impacts. However,
temperature has been shown to experience inhomoge-
neous trends over diÆerent regions of East Asia (Wang
and Ye, 1993; Chen et al., 1991), which greatly re-
duces its representativeness as an EAWM index (Chen
et al., 2000). In addition, it is probably more essential
and dynamically meaningful to define the EAWM in-
dex using dynamical variables instead of thermal vari-
ables. Hence, most investigators use circulation pa-
rameters instead of temperature to define the broad-
scale EAWM. To our knowledge, at least 18 circulation
indices have been proposed to measure EAWM inten-
sity (Table 1, Fig. 1). These indices were defined from
certain perspectives of the EAWM circulation such as
the east-west pressure contrast (e.g., Xu and Ji, 1965;
Guo, 1994; Shi, 1996), the 500-hPa East Asian trough
(e.g., Sun and Li, 1997; Cui and Sun, 1999; Wang et
al., 2009a), or the subtropical surface meridional wind
(e.g., Ji et al., 1997; Chen et al., 2000; Hu et al., 2000).
This raises several important questions: How well do
these indices describe the temporal variability of the
EAWM? How well do these indices represent the win-
tertime climate anomalies associated with the EAWM?
Are there any discrepancies between these indices in
describing the strength of the EAWM? To what extent
are these indices related to potential predictors of the
EAWM? Answering these questions is critically impor-
tant for understanding the variations of the EAWM,
and also for choosing suitable indices in research and
applications. So far not much eÆort has been made
along this avenue. Therefore, the purpose of this pa-
per is to evaluate how well the existing indices measure
the strength of the EAWM, and to provide a possible
reference for future studies.
The datasets used in this study are described in
VOL. 27
section 2. Section 3 illustrates the categorization
and temporal variability of the existing EAWM in-
dices, and documents the relationship between these
indices and potential predictors. The wintertime cli-
mate anomalies represented by the typical indices of
each category are then compared in section 4. Finally,
a summary and discussion is given in section 5.
2. Data and methods
In this study, the monthly mean European Cen-
tre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year
(ERA40) reanalysis data, which covers 45 years from
September 1957 to August 2002 (Uppala et al., 2005),
is obtained from the European Centre for Medium-
Range Weather Forecasts. This dataset has 2.5± £2.5±
horizontal resolution and extends from 1000 to 1 hPa
with 23 vertical pressure levels. The oceanic data em-
ployed are the Met O±ce Hadley Centre’s sea ice and
sea surface temperature (SST) dataset—HadISST1
(Rayner et al., 2003). It is a unique combination of
monthly globally-complete fields of SST and sea ice
concentration on a 1 degree latitude-longitude grid
from 1870 to date. We also use the monthly mean
surface air temperature (SAT) of 160 Chinese stations
provided by the China Meteorological Administration,
and the global land precipitation dataset produced by
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (Chen et
al., 2002). The NOAA/CPC precipitation analysis has
been constructed on a 1± £1± grid using the optimal in-
terpolation technique applied to gauge observations at
more than 15 000 stations in the world. The analysis
has been updated for an extended period longer than
50 years from 1948 to the present at the NOAA/CPC.
The time period analyzed in this study is from
1957 to 2002. Seasonal means are considered through-
out this paper and they are constructed from the
monthly means by averaging the data of December,
January, and February (DJF), which results in 45 win-
ters (1957–2001). Here, our convention is that the
winter of 1957 refers to the 1957/58 winter.
3. The existing indices and their temporal
variability
3.1 Categorization of the existing EAWM in-
dices
The 18 existing EAWM indices listed in Table 1
may be classified into four categories. The first cat-
egory may be labeled as “low level wind” indices.
Most of the indices in this category are constructed
by averaging the low-level meridional wind component
 NO. 4
Table 1. Description of the 18 EAWM circulation indices. Here, u: zonal winds, v: meridional winds, ©: geopotential height. Superscript * denotes the
normalized field. Their correlation coe±cients with the negative Niño3 and AO indices are shown for the raw (left column) and detrended (right column)
data. The bold italic and bold correlation coe±cients exceed the 95% and 99% confidence levels based on Student’s t test, respectively.
Index Reference Defining variable(s), level (hPa), and regions Correlation coe±cients with:

°Niño3 °AO
1
IJiLR Ji et al. (1997) v, 1000 hPa, (10± –30± N, 115± –130± E) 0.67/0.67 0.04/0.01
1
ILuE Lu and Chan (1999) v, 1000 hPa, (7.5± –20± N, 107.5± –120± E) 0.58/0.59 0.05/0.03
1
IChenJ Chen and Sun (1999) v, 1000 hPa, (15± –30± N, 115± -130± E) 0.64/0.64 0.02/0.01
1
IChenW Chen et al. (2000) v, 10 m, (10± –25± N, 110± –130± E and 25± –40± N, 120± –140± E) 0.66/0.66 0.04/0.01
IHuZZ Hu et al. (2000) °v, 10 m, (15± –40± N, 115± –130± E) 0.66/0.67 0.05/0.02
1
IYangS Yang et al. (2002) v, 850 hPa, (20± –40± N, 100± -140± E) 0.48/0.49 0.17/0.10
IWangHJ Wang and Jiang u, v, 850 hPa, (25± –50± N, 115± –145± E) 0.00/0.00 0.37 /0.35
(2004)

WANG AND CHEN

IJhun Jhun and Lee (2004) u, 300 hPa, (27.5± –37.5± N, 110± –170± E)°(50± –60± N, 80± – 0.21/0.21 0.11/0.16
140± E)
IXuSY Xu and Ji (1965) SLP gradient, (30± –40± N, 100± –120± E)°(30± –40± N, 130± – 0.37 /0.40 0.19/0.03
140± E)
IGuoQY Guo (1994) SLP gradient, (10± –60± N, 110± E–160± E) 0.38/0.39 0.36 /0.28
IShiN Shi (1996) SLP§ gradient, (20± –50± N, 110± E–160± E) 0.40/0.41 0.14/0.09
IWuBY Wu and Wang SLP§ gradient, (20± –70± N, 110± E–160± E) 0.35 /0.37 0.37 /0.29
(2002a)
IChanCL Chan and Li (2004) SLP gradient, (30± –55± N, 100± –120± E)°(30± –55± N, 150± – 0.30 /0.31 0.31 /0.23
170± E)
IWang Wang et al. (2009b) SLP§ gradient, (40± –70± N, 110± E–160± E) 0.17/0.19 0.58/0.49
IGongDY Gong et al. (2001) SLP, (40± –60± N, 70± –120± E) 0.28/0.32 0.50/0.37
1
ISunBM Sun and Li (1997) ©, 500 hPa, (30± –45± N, 125± –145± E) 0.31 /0.31 0.34 /0.31
1
ICuiXP Cui and Sun (1999) ©§ , 500 hPa, (35± –40± N, 110± –130± E) 0.19/0.20 0.38 /0.29
1
IWangL Wang et al. (2009a) PC1 of ©§ , 500 hPa, (25± –50± N, 100± –180± E) 0.26/0.26 0.32 /0.31
1
Multiplied by °1 with respect to the original definition so that a high index corresponds to a strong EAWM.

857
858 HOW WELL DO EXISTING INDICES MEASURE THE EAWM STRENGTH
in a typical region over the subtropical East Asia. The
original idea was proposed by Ji et al. (1997), and their
index was subsequently modified for diÆerent regions
and levels (e.g., Lu and Chan, 1999; Chen and Sun,
1999; Chen et al., 2000; Hu et al., 2000; Yang et al.,
2002). Meanwhile, since the subtropical northeasterly
along the coasts is the southern branch of the midlati-
tude northwesterly, the EAWM index defined by Wang
and Jiang (2004) based on the midlatitude 850 hPa
wind vector may also be classified into this category.
The idea behind these indices emphasizes the impor-
tance of the low-level EAWM flow along the coasts of
East Asia and its influence on the tropical regions.
In the second category, the upper tropospheric
zonal wind shear over East Asia is used. Only one in-
dex proposed by Jhun and Lee (2004) belongs to this
category. It was defined by the U300 within (27.5± –
37.5± N, 110± –170± E) minus U300 within (50± –60± N,
80± –140± E), where U300 denotes the zonal wind at 300
hPa. This index captures the features of the upper
tropospheric East Asian jet stream associated with the
variations of the EAWM.
The third category may be called “east–west pres-
sure gradient” indices, which are constructed by the
sea level pressure (SLP) diÆerence between areas over
East Asia and areas of the western North Pacific ocean.
The original idea was proposed by Xu and Ji (1965),
and their index was subsequently modified for diÆer-
ent regions or latitudes (e.g., Guo, 1994; Shi, 1996; Wu
and Wang, 2002a; Chan and Li, 2004; Wang et al.,
2009b). The notion behind this early definition was
that the east–west land–ocean thermal (and therefore
pressure) contrast may determine the northerly mon-
soon strength over East Asia. The index defined by
Gong et al. (2001) only used the SLP of the conti-
nental region, and is slightly diÆerent from the other
indices of this category. Nevertheless, it may also re-
flect the pressure gradient to some extent.
The fourth category may be classified as “East
Asian trough” indices, because in this category the
500-hPa East Asian trough is thought to be indica-
tive of the EAWM, and its strength is employed to
define the EAWM index. Sun and Li (1997) is an
example of an early adoption of such indices, and
they constructed their index by averaging the 500 hPa
geopotential height in the East Asian trough region.
Due to the discrepancy in choosing the trough region
for the definition (Sun and Li, 1997; Cui and Sun,
1999), Wang et al. (2009a) analyzed the normalized
500 hPa geopotential height over East Asia and west-
ern North Pacific through the empirical orthogonal
function (EOF) method. The EOF1 mode is found
to reflect the strength of the East Asian trough, and
the corresponding principal component (PC) is defined
VOL. 27
as the EAWM index.
3.2 The temporal variability of the existing
EAWM indices
Figure 1 shows the 18 normalized EAWM indices
discussed in this paper, whose definitions are listed
in Table 1. We note that a strong EAWM is defined
as having a low index in some studies (e.g., Ji et al.,
1997; Sun and Li, 1997; Cui and Sun, 1999; Chen et al.,
2000) and as having a high index in others. Hence, the
signs of some EAWM indices are reversed from their
original senses (see Table 1) so that a high index always
corresponds to strong EAWM winters, which makes
the convention uniform and more convenient in the
following study. It is obvious that all indices exhibit
pronounced interannual variations. Moreover, the in-
terdecadal components expressed by a 9-year running
mean are also quite considerable, which are mainly
characterized by the weakening around the mid-1980s.
In the following, wavelet analyses will be performed
to illustrate more details of the indices’ temporal vari-
ability. The relationships between the EAWM indices
and potential predictors will also be shown.
Figure 2 illustrates the local wavelet power spec-
tra and global wavelet spectra (Torrence and Compo,
1998) for the 18 EAWM indices. The global spectra in-
dicate that most of the low level wind indices (category
1) have significant 3–5 year variability, which mainly
dominated during the 1960–1970s and late 1990s as
revealed by the local wavelet power spectra (Figs. 2a–
g). This significant 3–5 year periodicity resembles that
of the Niño3 index with an overall similar distribution
except for discrepancies during 1975–1990 (Fig. 3a).
Previous studies have shown that El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g., Zhang et al., 1996; Wang et
al., 2000) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) (e.g., Wu and
Huang, 1999; Gong et al., 2001) exert significant influ-
ence on the EAWM, so we calculated the correlation
coe±cients between the Niño3/AO index and this cat-
egory of EAWM indices. It reveals that all the cor-
relation coe±cients between the Niño3 index and this
category of EAWM indices exceed the 99% confidence
level based on the Student t test (Table 1), suggest-
ing high prediction potential for these indices based on
ENSO.
In contrast, nearly null correlations are found with
the AO index (Table 1). One exception is the index
defined by Wang and Jiang (2004), which is related
to the AO index at better than the 95% confidence
level and has zero correlation against the Niño3 index.
This exception may be because the latitudes used in
the areal mean in their definition are higher compared
to other indices of this category. Moreover, in order to
avoid possible influences of the long term trend on the
NO. 4 WANG AND CHEN 859

Fig. 1. The time series of the 18 existing EAWM indices and their decadal components expressed by a 9-year
running mean for the winters 1957–2001.
860 HOW WELL DO EXISTING INDICES MEASURE THE EAWM STRENGTH VOL. 27

Fig. 2. The local wavelet power spectra and global wavelet spectra for the 18 existing EAWM indices. Contours
in the local wavelet power spectra and dotted lines in the global wavelet spectra indicate the 90% confidence level.

interannual variability, we recalculated the correlation
coe±cients with detrended indices, and the results re-
main nearly the same (Table 1). Therefore, this cate-
gory of indices can generally well represent the interan-
nual relationship between ENSO and the EAWM but
cannot reflect the influence of the AO on the EAWM.
In addition, this conclusion is independent of the long
term trends of the indices. On the other hand, an im-
portant characteristic of the EAWM on the decadal
timescale is its continuous weakening and associated
warming over East Asia since 1986 (e.g., Chang et al.,
2006; Kang et al., 2006; Wang et al., 2009b), so it is
necessary to evaluate whether the EAWM indices are
able to capture this feature. The 9-year running mean
indicates that despite the weak decadal component, all
the low level wind EAWM indices experience weaken-
ing around the mid-1980s (Figs. 1a–g), and four out
of seven indices have the right transition time (Figs.
1a, 1c–e). Therefore, most indices of this category
can describe well the recent decadal variations of the
NO. 4 WANG AND CHEN 861

EAWM.
For the EAWM index of the second category (Jhun
and Lee, 2004), there is a significant 3–4 year signal
and a second peak around 8 years in Fig. 2h. However,
the correlation coe±cients between this index and the
Niño3/AO indices are quite weak (Table 1), indicating
no prediction potential for this index based on ENSO
and the AO. The correlation coe±cients remain low
when the linear trends of the indices are removed.
Nevertheless, this index can well capture the decadal
weakening of the EAWM around the mid-1980s (Fig.
1h). These results suggest that an index based on
the upper zonal wind shear may be more suitable for
describing the interdecadal instead of the interannual
variations of the EAWM.
The global wavelet spectra indicate that the domi-
nant periods of the east-west pressure gradient indices
are mainly characterized by two peaks: one at around
8 years and the other around 4 years (Figs. 2i–o).
The local wavelet power spectra further show that the
8 year period is more prominent especially before the Fig. 3. The same as in Fig. 2, but for (a) Niño3 index
mid-1980s (Figs. 2i–o), which resembles the pattern and (b) AO index.
of the AO index (Fig. 3b) to some extent. Correla-
tion analyses reveal that the indices of this category
weak correlation with the Niño3 index (Table 1); both
are generally strongly related to the Niño3 and AO
relationships are independent of the long term trends.
indices at better than the 95% confidence level (Table
The decadal variations of the EAWM expressed by
1). However, most of the relationships with the AO be-
these indices are quite obvious, with clear weakening
come insignificant after the linear trends are removed
since 1986 (Figs. 1p–r). Therefore, this category of
except for IWang and IGongDY . These results suggest
indices can well reflect the predictability potential of
that the interannual relationship with ENSO can be
the AO with respect to the EAWM on the interannual
well expressed by this category of EAWM indices, al-
timescale, and also well describes the decadal varia-
though the relationships are not as good as with the
tions of the EAWM.
low level wind indices, and the relationship with the
AO depends on the long term trend. However, since
the change in the absolute correlation coe±cient is not 4. The wintertime climate anomalies repre-
so large for some indices after the linear trends are re- sented by the existing indices
moved, it implies that the interannual variation seems
more important. As for the decadal component, in- Previously we have discussed the temporal vari-
dices of this category experience obvious decadal vari- ability of the 18 existing EAWM indices. In this sec-
ations with a clear weakening around 1980, but the tion, we will further illustrate the wintertime climate
transition time (Figs. 1i–o) is about 6 years earlier anomalies represented by these indices. Based on the
than in the observations (e.g., Kang et al., 2006; Wang categories in section 3.1, we select one index from each
et al., 2009b). Therefore, this category of EAWM in- category for further analysis, namely: IChenW (Chen
dices cannot describe well the decadal variations of the et al., 2000), IJhun (Jhun and Lee, 2004), IGuoQY (Guo,
EAWM at least for the past four decades. 1994), and ISunBM (Sun and Li, 1997). In addition, the
For the East Asian trough indices, they have two indices IWangHJ (Wang and Jiang, 2004) and IGongDY
peaks around 3–4 years and 16 years but these do (Gong et al., 2001) are also selected because their defi-
not reach the 90% confidence level as revealed by nitions are slight diÆerent from the others in their cat-
the global wavelet spectra (Figs. 2p–r). Their local egories; this yields 6 example indices for subsequent
wavelet power spectra (Figs. 2p–r) also do not show analysis. Composite diÆerences between strong and
much visual resemblance with the Niño3/AO indices weak EAWM winters are employed to represent the
(Figs. 3a–b). Correlation analyses indicate that the EAWM-related climate anomalies. The strong (weak)
indices of this category are related to AO index at bet- EAWM cases are selected as the winters in which the
ter than the 95% confidence level, but generally have values of the corresponding index are larger (smaller)
862 HOW WELL DO EXISTING INDICES MEASURE THE EAWM STRENGTH VOL. 27

Fig. 4. Composite diÆerence of detrended (a) SLP, (b) 500 hPa geopotential height, (c) 200 hPa zonal wind, (d)
850 hPa air temperature and wind, (e) land precipitation percentage anomalies, and (f) observed SAT from 160
stations in China between strong and weak EAWM winters based on detrended IChenW . Contour intervals are 1
hPa, 20 gpm, 2 m s°1 , 0.5± C, 20%, and 0.5± C for (a)–(f), respectively. Light and dark shadings indicate 95% and
99% confidence levels for positive (red)/negative (blue) values, respectively. Zero contour lines are suppressed.

than 0.5 (°0.5). In order to avoid the possible influ-
ence of the long term trends, all the data and indices
are detrended before compositing.
Figure 4 shows that the strong EAWM revealed by
IChenW is characterized by an amplified Siberian High
and Aleutian Low at the surface level (Fig. 4a), a
deepened East Asian trough in the middle troposphere
(Fig. 4b), and an accelerated East Asian jet stream
in the upper troposphere (Fig. 4c). These amplified
components of the EAWM circulation system lead to
strong northerly wind (Fig. 4d) and significant cool-
ing (Fig. 4f) along the coastal regions of East Asia.
The anomalous northerly wind then brings cold air
into the tropics and induces strong convection, which
causes more precipitation over the maritime continent
(Fig. 4e). In contrast, the midlatitude precipitation
over East Asia is reduced, which is possibly due to the
change of the secondary circulation around the en-
NO. 4 WANG AND CHEN 863

Fig. 5. The same as in Fig. 4, but based on IWangHJ .

trance region of the East Asian jet stream (e.g., Har-
rold, 1973; Wang et al., 2009a) and the convective in-
stability (Zhou, 2010; Zhou et al., 2010). The most
distinguished feature represented by IChenW is that
the circulation anomalies have significant signals in the
tropical areas, especially in the tropical Pacific (Figs.
4a–c). In addition, the tropical east-west pressure
dipole (Fig. 4a), the 500 hPa Pacific-North Amer-
ica (PNA)-like pattern (Fig. 4b), and the 200-hPa
zonal wind anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific
(Fig. 4c) strongly resemble those related to ENSO
(e.g., Yang et al., 2002), which suggests a close rela-
tionship between IChenW and ENSO and is consistent
with previous temporal analyses of IChenW (see sec-
tion 3.2 and Table 1). We then specifically look at the
SAT anomalies in China. Generally speaking, posi-
tive IChenW is significantly associated with negative
SAT anomalies over the Tarim Basin and over large
parts of East China (east of 100± E) except for north-
east China (Fig. 4f), indicating cold winters during
strong EAWM years. For East China, the areas where
IChenW has poor performance are generally occupied
by high mountains, such as the Taihang, Qinling, and
Daba Mountains [see Fig. 1 of Chen et al. (2009) for
the distribution of topography], implying the possible
influence of topographic eÆects.
864 HOW WELL DO EXISTING INDICES MEASURE THE EAWM STRENGTH VOL. 27

Fig. 6. The same as in Fig. 4, but based on IJhun .

Figure 5 shows the performance of IWangHJ . Com- tinent (Fig. 5e).

pared with the results in Fig. 4, the circulation anoma-
lies represented by IWangHJ are more confined to the
extratropical North Pacific area, with a relatively weak
signal over the Eurasian continent (Figs. 5a–c). The
related low level northerly wind anomalies are obvious
over East Asia (Fig. 5d). However, the associated low
level temperature anomalies are only clear and signif-
icant around Japan (Fig. 5d), with little signal over
China (Figs. 5d, 5f). In addition, this index can well
capture the EAWM-associated changes of the precipi-
tation over midlatitude East Asia but cannot describe
those over the tropical regions such as maritime con-
Figure 6 illustrates the climate anomalies revealed
by IJhun , which belongs to the second category of in-
dices. The analysis reveals that IJhun has quite similar
performance as IChenW in representing the circulation
anomalies over extratropical East Asian areas, while
some diÆerences exist over the tropics and the eastern
Pacific/North America (Figs. 6a–d). Compared with
Fig. 4, the relationship with the SAT variations over
North China is a little closer using this index (Fig. 6f),
but linkage to the precipitation over East China and
the maritime continent is slightly weaker (Fig. 6e).
This suggests that although IJhun has a weak inter-
NO. 4 WANG AND CHEN 865

Fig. 7. The same as in Fig. 4, but based on IGuoQY .

annual relationship with potential predictors such as
ENSO and the AO, it can well describe the interan-
nual variations of the EAWM system components and
the related temperature changes over East Asia.
Figures 7 and 8 present the performance of IGuoQY
and IGongDY , both of which belong to the east-west
pressure gradient index category. The results reveal
that the climate anomalies represented by IGuoQY
(Fig. 7) are quite similar to those indicated by IJhun ,
but there is better performance for the midlatitude
precipitation (Fig. 7e) and SAT over northwest China
(Fig. 7f). As for IGongDY , its related circulation
anomalies shift more westward compared with the pre-
vious indices, with relatively strong (weak) signals over
the Eurasian continent (North Pacific) (Figs. 8a–c).
Accordingly, the center of the low level cooling also
shifts westward to Mongolia (Fig. 8d). One advan-
tage of this index is that it has a very good relation-
ship with the SAT over most parts of China except
Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau (Figs. 8d,
8f), although its performance for precipitation is not
so good (Fig. 8e).
For the EAWM index of the fourth category, the
circulation anomalies and associated low level wind
and temperature represented by ISunBM strongly re-
semble those from IJhun and IGuoQY , with clearly in-
866 HOW WELL DO EXISTING INDICES MEASURE THE EAWM STRENGTH VOL. 27

Fig. 8. The same as in Fig. 4, but based on IGongDY .

tensified EAWM system components and cooling over
East Asia (Figs. 9a–d). In contrast, the associated dis-
tribution of SAT over China and the precipitation are
more like the patterns represented by IChenW (Figs.
9e–f). These results suggest that ISunBM can well de-
scribe the interannual variations of the EAWM system
components, as well as the related precipitation change
over East Asia. The ability of ISunBM to describe SAT
over China is also comparable to other EAWM indices.
5. Summary and discussion
Based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset, the ob-
served SAT from 160 China stations, and the global
land precipitation dataset from NOAA/CPC, we com-
pared the temporal and spatial performance of the
18 existing EAWM indices in this study. It reveals
that the 18 existing EAWM indices can be classified
into four categories: low level wind indices, upper tro-
pospheric zonal wind shear indices, east–west pres-
sure gradient indices, and East Asian trough indices.
Wavelet and correlation analyses indicate that all of
these indices are characterized by obvious interannual
and interdecadal variability, and each category has its
advantages in certain perspectives. On the interan-
nual timescale, the widely accepted ENSO-EAWM re-
lationship (e.g., Zhang et al., 1996; Wang et al., 2000)
is best expressed by the low level wind indices (Table
1). This relationship can also be well described by the
east-west pressure gradient indices, but with lower
NO. 4 WANG AND CHEN 867

Fig. 9. The same as in Fig. 4, but based on ISunBM .

confidence level. On the other hand, the AO-EAWM
relationship (e.g., Wu and Huang, 1999; Gong et al.,
2001) can be well illustrated by the East Asian trough
indices. Although this feature can also be expressed by
east-west pressure gradient indices, the results greatly
depend on the long term trends, implying that this
category of indices may be not suitable for describ-
ing the interannual AO-EAWM relationship. On the
decadal timescale, most of the indices experience clear
weakening around the 1980s, but with a spread con-
cerning the transition time. Analyses indicate that the
upper tropospheric zonal wind shear indices, the East
Asian trough indices and most of the low level wind
indices can well capture the weakening around 1986,
which is consistent with the observations (e.g., Chang
et al., 2006; Kang et al., 2006; Wang et al., 2009b).
However, the transition time expressed by all the east-
west pressure gradient indices is much earlier than in
the observations, suggesting that this category of in-
dices may be not suitable for describing the decadal
variations of the EAWM.
Further spatial analyses illustrate that although
there exist slight diÆerences, all the indices can well de-
scribe the changes of the EAWM system components,
i.e., the amplified Siberian High and Aleutian Low at
the surface, the deepened East Asian trough in the
868 HOW WELL DO EXISTING INDICES MEASURE THE EAWM STRENGTH
middle troposphere, and the accelerated East Asian
jet stream in the upper troposphere in strong EAWM
winters, and vice versa. In addition, the potential pre-
dictability of certain indices based on ENSO or the AO
also have their embodiment in the related circulations.
For example, the low level meridional wind index has
significant signals over the tropical and eastern Pa-
cific, indicating a close relationship with ENSO. The
East Asian trough index exhibits a clear AO-like dipole
in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, consistent
with its high predictability by the AO. On the other
hand, accompanied by the well-described circulation
anomalies, the variations of the precipitation and lower
tropospheric wind and temperature can also be well
captured by the existing indices. One common feature
worth noting is that almost all the indices have weak
performance for the SAT around the large areas to the
east of Sichuan Basin and Taihang Mountains (Figs.
4f, 5f, 6f, 7f, 9f), which may be related to topographic
eÆects.
The complexity of the EAWM makes it di±cult
to measure the temporal and spatial variations of the
EAWM with a simple index. However, the results of
this study indicate that with scientists’ eÆorts, some
of the existing EAWM indices can well represent both
the temporal and the spatial variations of the EAWM
strength and associated low level temperature. In ad-
dition, the good relationship between certain EAWM
indices and potential predictors makes it possible to
predict the strength of the EAWM at least to some
extent. Nevertheless, there are still many unsolved
problems in measuring and predicting the strength of
the EAWM. For example, due to the influence of to-
pography, most of indices cannot reflect the variations
of SAT over large areas of central China although they
can well describe the lower tropospheric air tempera-
ture. In addition, the analyses of this study imply that
the influences of ENSO and the AO on the EAWM
are independent of each other. Therefore, how to re-
flect the combined role of these factors and predict the
strength of the EAWM in practice still need further in-
vestigation.
Another issue that should be noted is that the dis-
cussion of the interdecadal variations of the EAWM in
this paper is limited to the intensity of the EAWM,
especially concerning the continuous weakening since
1986. However, some recent studies suggest that the
interdecadal variations of the EAWM also consist of
the interdecadal changes in the EAWM’s interannual
variability and its relationship with certain climatic
signals (e.g., Wang et al., 2007, 2008, 2010). This
kind of interdecadal variation has also been paid more
and more attention with respect to the Australian and
East Asian summer monsoons (Power et al., 1999; Wu
VOL. 27
and Wang, 2002b; Gu et al., 2009). Given its complex-
ity, we do not evaluate the performance of the existing
EAWM indices with regard to this kind of interdecadal
variability in the current study. No doubt, to better
represent this kind of variability raises a high demand
for the EAWM indices. It may be necessary to devote
some eÆorts to define a generalized EAWM index to
describe all these variations in the future.
Acknowledgements. This work is supported jointly
by the National Basic Research Program of China
(2009CB421405), the National Key Technology R&D Pro-
gram of China (2008BAK50B02), the National Natural
Science Foundation of China (40905026 and 40775035),
and Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-
Atmospheric Chemistry, SOA (GCMAC0901).
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