CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Bhartiya International Ltd

Q2FY14 Results Update

Enhancing investment decisions

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Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a fivepoint scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL Fundamental Grade

5/5 4/5 3/5 2/5 1/5

Assessment
Excellent fundamentals Superior fundamentals Good fundamentals Moderate fundamentals Poor fundamentals

CRISIL Valuation Grade

5/5 4/5 3/5 2/5 1/5

Assessment
Strong upside (>25% from CMP) Upside (10-25% from CMP) Align (+-10% from CMP) Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP) Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

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Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias the grading recommendation of the company.

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Bhartiya International Ltd

Healthy bookings; PE investors exit is a monitorable
Fundamental Grade Valuation Grade Industry 3/5 (Good fundamentals) 5/5 (CMP has strong upside) Textiles, Apparels and Luxury Goods

December 02, 2013 Fair Value CMP CFV MATRIX

Excellent Fundamentals

285 185

Fundamental Grade

Bhartiya International Ltds (Bhartiyas) Q2FY14 standalone (fashion business) revenues exceeded but earnings were below CRISIL Researchs expectations due to lower margin . The real estate development business through its associate company (40% share) Bhartiya Urban Infrastructure & Land Development Company Pvt. Ltd (BUILDCO) has reported bookings of 2.4 mn sq ft as of Q2FY14 (90% of the launched area). Construction of the residential project is also progressing well. The management is still evaluating different options for the PE investors exit; this is a key monitorable. We maintain the fundamental grade of 3/5. Fashion business earnings below expectations due to lower-than-expected margin Revenues grew by 46.3% y-o-y and 55.6% q-o-q to 1,056 mn driven by strong growth in both the business segments - leather products (~90% contribution to total revenues) and textile apparels. EBITDA margin declined by 200 bps y-o-y to 8.1% as margins in the leather accessories and textile businesses were under pressure. Despite strong growth in revenues, PAT recorded a lower growth of 19.8% y-o-y (46 mn) due to lower margin. Working capital cycle has been stable at 163 days as of September 2013.

5 4 3 2 1

Poor Fundamentals

Valuation Grade
Strong Downside Strong Upside

Real estate project healthy bookings in Q2FY14, construction progressing well Bookings during Q2FY14 were healthy at 0.4 mn sq ft; cumulatively 2.4 mn sq ft of the project has been booked (90% of the launched area). Construction of the project is progressing well; as of Q2FY14, it spent 3,250 mn (excluding land cost), funded through debt and customer advances of 2,701 mn. The company plans to launch 0.5 mn sq ft of residential projects in two-three months. Given such a large project is a first for the company, execution is a monitorable. Exit of the PE investor is a monitorable In FY08, the PE investor had invested 1,500 mn in BUILDCO for a 26% stake . As highlighted earlier, BUILDCO bought back 3.4% equity for 500 mn in Q1FY14; the next significant tranche to the PE investor is due in March 2014. As highlighted in our Q1FY14 update, the management is still evaluating options they might bring in a new investor or promoter entities may provide an exit. In the eventuality of buyback of shares, BUILDCO (unlisted) will be subject to distribution tax of 22.7%; this could impact our valuation adversely. We will revisit our fair value once the exit plan of the PE investor is finalised. Fair value retained at 285 per share Factoring in lower-than-expected margins in the accessories and textile businesses, we have lowered margin estimates for FY14 and FY15. Accordingly, earnings estimates are lowered. We continue to use the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method to value Bhartiya but have retained fair value of 285 per share as more than 70% of the valuation is derived from the real estate business, which is unchanged.

KEY STOCK STATISTICS

NIFTY/SENSEX NSE/BSE ticker Face value ( per share) Shares outstanding (mn) Market cap ( mn)/(US$ mn) Enterprise value ( mn)/(US$ mn) 52-week range ()/(H/L) Beta Free float (%) Avg daily volumes (30-days) Avg daily value (30-days) ( mn) 6218/20898 BIL 10 11.1 2,049/33 2,966/48 245/113 1.3 54.0% 25,684 4.9

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
100% 90% 80%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 54.2%

54.5%

54.5%

54%

0.2%

0.0%

0.0%

0%

45.5%

45.5%

45.5%

46%

KEY FORECAST (CONSOLIDATED)

( mn) FY11 FY12 Operating income 1,952 2,507 EBITDA 186 270 Adj net income 68 118 Adj EPS () 7.1 11.3 EPS growth (%) 33.7 58.5 Dividend yield (%) 1.9 2.0 RoCE (%) 9.4 12.3 RoE (%) 6.0 9.4 PE (x) 7.3 4.6 P/BV (x) 0.4 0.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 4.4 NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates FY13 3,039 273 104 9.4 (16.6) 0.6 10.6 7.5 19.6 1.4 10.8 FY14E 3,918 369 147 12.8 36.1 0.6 12.6 9.7 14.4 1.3 8.6 FY15E 4,616 443 183 16.0 24.6 0.7 13.9 10.9 11.6 1.2 7.4

10% 0% Dec-12 Promoter Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Others

FII

PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKET

1-m -2% 0% Returns 3-m 6-m 16% -16% 13% 3% 12-m 10% 3%

Bhartiya CNX 500

ANALYTICAL CONTACT
Mohit Modi (Director) Ravi Dodhia Vishal Rampuria Client servicing desk +91 22 3342 3561 clientservicing@crisil.com mohit.modi@crisil.com ravi.dodhia@crisil.com vishal.rampuria@crisil.com

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Q2FY14 Results Summary (Standalone)

( mn) Net sales Raw materials cost Raw materials cost (% of net sales) Employees cost Other expenses EBITDA EBITDA margin Depreciation EBIT Interest and finance charges Operating PBT Other Income PBT Tax PAT Adj PAT Adj PAT margin No. of equity shares (mn) Adj EPS () Source: Company, CRISIL Research Q2FY14 1,056 704 66.7% 40 226 86 8.1% 6 79 26 53 7 60 14 46 46 4.4% 11.1 4.2 Q1FY14 679 365 53.7% 36 227 51 7.5% 6 45 21 23 5 28 7 21 21 3.1% 11.1 1.9 Q2FY13 722 458 63.4% 29 162 73 10.1% 5 68 21 47 6 53 14 39 39 5.4% 11.1 3.5 q-o-q (%) 55.6 93.0 1292bps 9.8 (0.2) 68.8 64bps 2.4 78.0 22.9 129.0 43.8 113.7 100.0 118.2 118.2 126bps 118.2 y-o-y (%) 46.3 53.7 322bps 40.5 39.4 17.3 -200bps 27.3 16.6 23.8 13.3 24.1 14.5 19.8 19.8 -97bps 19.8 H1FY14 1,734 1,068 61.6% 77 453 136 7.9% 13 124 48 76 12 89 21 68 68 3.9% 11.1 6.1 H1FY13 1,150 693 60.3% 53 290 114 9.9% 10 104 40 65 11 76 20 56 56 4.8% 11.1 5.0 y-o-y (%) 50.8 54.1 131bps 43.4 56.4 19.9 -203bps 30.6 18.9 20.6 17.8 13.6 17.2 5.0 21.6 21.6 -93bps 21.6

Revenues recorded strong growth; margin under pressure

( mn)
1,200 9.5% 1,000 7.3% 10.1% 7.7% 6.7% 5.6% 600 400 200 6% 4% 2% 12% 8.1% 10%

PAT recorded lower growth due to decline in margin

( mn)
50 45 40 35 30 3.9% 5.4% 4.4% 2.9% 1.4% 3.1% 6% 5% 4% 3% 1.0%

7.5%

800

8%

2.7%

25
20 15 10 5 18

2%
1% 0%

657
0

397
Q4FY12

429
Q1FY13

722
Q2FY13

733
Q3FY13

590
Q4FY13

679
Q1FY14

1,056
0%

6
Q4FY12

17

39

21

6
Q4FY13

21

46

-1%

0
Q3FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14

-2%

Q3FY12

Q2FY14

Net Sales

EBITDA Margin (RHS)

PAT

PAT Margin (RHS)

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Bhartiya International Ltd

Share price movement

600 500

Fair value movement since initiation

() 300
250

('000) 600
500 400 300 200 100 0

400 200 300 150 100 50 0

200
100 0

Oct-12

Dec-12

Oct-13

May-13

Feb-10

Feb-11

Feb-12

Sep-09

Mar-13

Oct-10

Oct-11

Oct-12

Nov-13

Jun-10

Jun-11

Jun-12

Bhartiya

CNX 500

Total Traded Quantity (RHS)

CRISIL Fair Value

-Indexed to 100 Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

Earnings Estimates Revised Downwards

FY14E Particulars Revenues EBITDA EBITDA margin PAT PAT margin EPS Unit ( mn) ( mn) % ( mn) % () Old 3,918 390 10.0% 159 4.1% 13.9 New 3,918 369 9.4% 147 3.8% 12.8 % change 0.0% -5.5% -55bps -7.3% -30bps -7.3% Old 4,616 468 10.1% 197 4.3% 17.1 FY15E New 4,616 443 9.6% 183 4.0% 16.0 % change 0.0% -5.4% -55bps -6.7% -28bps -6.7%

Source: CRISIL Research estimates

Reasons for changes in estimates

Line item Revenues EBITDA margins PAT FY14E No change Lowered factoring in lower-than-expected margins in the leather accessories and textile businesses Lowered in line with revision in margin estimates FY15E

Nov-13
Bhartiya

Nov-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Valuation

Grade: 5/5

We have lowered earnings estimates by 7.3% for FY14 and 6.7% for FY15 factoring in lowerthan-expected margins in the leather accessories and textiles businesses. We continue to use the SOTP method to value Bhartiya but have retained our fair value of 285 per share as more than 70% of the valuation is derived from the real estate business, which is unchanged. At the current market price of 185, the valuation grade is 5/5. The fashion business value is retained at 79 per share based on the DCF method. We continue to value the SEZ business at 10 per share at investment value. The real estate business value is retained at 196 per share based on the net asset value (NAV) a pproach. The management was earlier planning to provide an exit to the PE investor through a buyback. Owing to imposition of new tax on unlisted entities for such buybacks, the management has shelved its buyback plans. According to the management, the next significant tranche to the PE investor is due in March 2014. As highlighted in our Q1FY14 update, the management is still evaluating different options they might bring in a new investor or promoter entities may provide an exit; this remains a key monitorable. In the eventuality of buyback of shares, BUILDCO (unlisted) will be subject to distribution tax of 22.7%. We will revisit our fair value once the exit plan of the PE investor is finalised.

Businesses Fashion SEZ Real estate Total fair value

Fair value ( per share) 79 10 196 285

Valuation method DCF Investment value NAV

One-year forward P/E band

()
250 200

One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

( mn)
4,000 3,500 3,000

150 100

2,500 2,000 1,500

50

1,000 500

0
Dec-10 Oct-11 May-11 Sep-09 Aug-12 Nov-13 Jan-13 Feb-10 Mar-12 Jun-13 Apr-09 Jul-10

Oct-11

May-11

Bhartiya 9x

3x 12x

6x 15x

EV

2x

4x

6x

8x

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

Nov-13

Dec-10

Jan-13

Feb-10

Sep-09

Mar-12

Aug-12

Jun-13

Apr-09

Jul-10

Bhartiya International Ltd

P/E premium / discount to CNX 500

100% 80% 60% 40% 20%

P/E movement
(Times)
20 18

16
14 12 10 8 6 4 +1 std dev

0%
-20% -40% -60% -80%

-1 std dev

2
Dec-10 Oct-11
May-11

Nov-13

Jan-13

Mar-12

Feb-10

Aug-12

Sep-09

Jun-13

Apr-09

Jul-10

Dec-10

Oct-11

May-11

Premium/Discount to CNX 500 Median premium/discount to CNX 500

1yr Fwd PE (x)

Median PE

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

CRISIL IER reports released on Bhartiya International Ltd

Date 11-Oct-2012 09-Nov-2012 12-Feb-2013 15-May-2013 19-Jun-2013 23-Sep-2013 02-Dec-2013 Nature of report Initiating Coverage Q2FY13 Result update Q3FY13 Result update Event Update Q4FY13 Result Update Q1FY14 Result Update Q2FY14 Result Update Fundamental grade 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 Fair value 147 180 247 285 285 285 285 Valuation grade 5/5 5/5 5/5 4/5 5/5 5/5 5/5 CMP (on the date of report) 65 133 170 234 209 180 185

Nov-13

Jan-13

Sep-09

Mar-12

Feb-10

Aug-12

Jun-13

Apr-09

Jul-10

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Annexure: Financials (Consolidated)

Income statement
( m n) Operating incom e EBITDA EBITDA m argin Depreciation EBIT Interest Operating PBT Other income Exceptional inc/(exp) PBT Tax provision Minority interest PAT (Reported) Less: Exceptionals Adjusted PAT FY11 1,952 186 9.5% 28 158 82 76 22 (4) 94 30 64 (4) 68 FY12 2,507 270 10.8% 30 240 103 137 23 (3) 157 41 115 (3) 118 FY13 3,039 273 9.0% 32 241 119 123 22 (3) 141 40 101 (3) 104 FY14E 3,918 369 9.4% 40 328 135 193 25 218 71 147 147 FY15E 4,616 443 9.6% 43 399 150 250 22 272 88 183 183

Balance Sheet
( m n) Liabilities Equity share capital Reserves Minorities Net w orth Convertible debt Other debt Total debt Deferred tax liability (net) Total liabilities Assets Net fixed assets Capital WIP Total fixed assets Investm ents Current assets Inventory Sundry debtors Loans and advances Cash & bank balance Marketable securities Total current assets Total current liabilities Net current assets Intangibles/Misc. expenditure Total assets FY11 95 1,099 1,194 627 627 13 1,835 455 28 483 389 777 137 218 96 38 1,267 310 956 6 1,835 FY12 105 1,224 1,329 767 767 17 2,113 478 91 569 411 949 251 198 83 33 1,515 388 1,126 7 2,113 FY13 111 1,328 1,438 1,038 1,038 23 2,499 647 2 649 412 1,081 381 221 121 27 1,831 403 1,428 9 2,499 FY14E 115 1,486 1,601 1,138 1,138 28 2,766 657 72 729 412 1,342 486 293 78 27 2,226 610 1,616 9 2,766 FY15E 115 1,651 1,766 1,238 1,238 33 3,037 685 50 735 412 1,581 573 345 79 27 2,605 726 1,880 9 3,037

Ratios
FY11 Grow th Operating income (%) EBITDA (%) Adj PAT (%) Adj EPS (%) Profitability EBITDA margin (%) Adj PAT Margin (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoIC (%) Valuations Price-earnings (x) Price-book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Dividend payout ratio (%) Dividend yield (%) B/S ratios Inventory days Creditors days Debtor days Working capital days Gross asset turnover (x) Net asset turnover (x) Sales/operating assets (x) Current ratio (x) Debt-equity (x) Net debt/equity (x) Interest coverage (5.7) 4.2 46.0 33.7 FY12 28.4 45.2 75.3 58.5 FY13 21.2 1.2 (11.8) (16.6) FY14E 28.9 34.9 41.1 36.1 FY15E 17.8 20.1 24.6 24.6

9.5 3.5 6.0 9.4 14.5

10.8 4.7 9.4 12.3 16.6

9.0 3.4 7.5 10.6 13.8

9.4 3.8 9.7 12.6 14.7

9.6 4.0 10.9 13.9 14.9

Cash flow
( m n) Pre-tax profit Total tax paid Depreciation Working capital changes Net cash from operations Cash from investm ents Capital expenditure Investments and others Net cash from investm ents Cash from financing Equity raised/(repaid) Debt raised/(repaid) Dividend (incl. tax) Others (incl extraordinaries) Net cash from financing Change in cash position Closing cash FY11 98 (25) 28 (275) (175) (87) 22 (65) 34 162 (11) 29 215 (25) 96 FY12 160 (38) 30 (188) (37) (116) (17) (133) 50 140 (13) (20) 156 (13) 83 FY13 144 (34) 32 (270) (128) (115) 5 (110) 36 271 (14) (17) 276 38 121 FY14E 218 (66) 40 (231) (39) (120) (120) 30 100 (15) 115 (43) 78 FY15E 272 (83) 43 (262) (30) (50) (50) 100 (18) 82 2 79

7.3 0.4 5.3 0.5 14.8 1.9

4.6 0.4 4.4 0.5 9.6 2.0

19.6 1.4 10.8 1.0 11.5 0.6

14.4 1.3 8.6 0.9 8.5 0.6

11.6 1.2 7.4 0.8 8.5 0.7

177 52 28 167 3.6 5.0 4.3 4.1 0.5 0.4 1.9

169 54 39 159 3.9 5.4 4.8 3.9 0.6 0.5 2.3

154 46 49 165 4.0 5.4 5.0 4.5 0.7 0.6 2.0

151 53 50 155 4.4 6.0 5.7 3.7 0.7 0.6 2.4

150 53 49 151 4.9 6.9 6.3 3.6 0.7 0.6 2.7

Quarterly financials (standalone)

( m n) Net Sales Change (q-o-q) EBITDA Change (q-o-q) EBITDA m argin PAT Adj PAT Change (q-o-q) Adj PAT m argin Adj EPS Q1FY13 429 8% 41 53% 10% 17 17 198% 4% 1.6 Q2FY13 722 68% 73 79% 10% 39 39 129% 5% 3.5 Q3FY13 733 2% 56 -23% 8% 21 21 -45% 3% 1.9 Q4FY13 590 -19% 33 -42% 6% 6 6 -71% 1% 0.6 Q1FY14 679 15% 51 54% 7% 21 21 247% 3% 1.9 Q2FY14 1,056 56% 86 69% 8% 46 46 118% 4% 4.2

Per share
Adj EPS ( ) CEPS Book value Dividend ( ) Actual o/s shares (mn) FY11 7.1 10.1 126.1 1.0 9.5 FY12 11.3 14.2 127.0 1.1 10.5 FY13 9.4 12.3 130.0 1.1 11.1 FY14E 12.8 16.4 139.6 1.1 11.5 FY15E 16.0 19.8 154.0 1.4 11.5

Note: BUILDCO is not consolidated as it is an associate company Source: CRISIL Research

This page is intentionally left blank

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