Coastal populations,

urban sprawl and

climate change
10 metres in altitude) only accounts for
The mapping of low-lying about two per cent of the world’s land area,
areas, many of which are also susceptible to
subsidence, and already have large
but contains 10 per cent of the total
coastal urban centres population, and 13 per cent of the urban
populations at risk from storm surges.

population. Figure 1: Ten countries with largest

around the world, clearly populations in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone
As illustrated in Table 1, about two-thirds of
highlights how many of the population in this zone is in Asia. But
160
140
even in Africa, with only one per cent of its
our urban cities will be

,000 people in zone

120
land in the zone, and a comparatively high 100
share of the population engaged in
increasingly threatened agriculture, still 12 per cent of the urban
80
60
population live in the zone.
by climate change and 40
20
While the small island states have by far the
points to an urgent need 0
na

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ia
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U S A

d
ines
largest share of land in the zone, their
I ndi

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nes
C hi

J ap
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ipph
population percentages are not exceptional.
for mitigation and

T ha
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adaptation policies.
By Gordon McGranahan, Deborah Balk
and Bridget Anderson
Coastal settlement is both environmentally
damaging and environmentally vulnerable.
Climate change, which will bring sea level
rise and greater storm intensity, amplifies the
risks of coastal settlement. Yet coastal zones
are densely settled and growing rapidly.
The low elevation coastal zone (LECZ –
defined as contiguous coastal land less than
This is in part because some of the most
populous small island states have
comparatively little settlement in the low
elevation areas, but is also because small
island states do not have large rivers,
creating flat and fertile deltas.
Regional averages hide considerable
national variation, and the 10 countries
with the most people living in the zone
(Figure 1) together account for about 463
million people, or about 73 per cent of the
people who live in the zone globally. These
countries are generally populous, and
contain large and densely populated delta
P hil
Figure 2 shows countries with the highest
population shares in the zone (excluding
those with total populations of less than
100,000 or land areas less than 100 square
kilometres). Three of these: Vietnam,
Bangladesh and Egypt, are also among the
countries with the largest overall
populations in the zone.
Figure 2: Ten countries with highest population
shares in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone
100
90
population share in zone, %

80
Table 1: Population and Land Area in Low Elevation Coastal Zone by Region – 2000
70
60
Shares of region’s population and land in LECZ 50
40
Region Total Urban Total Urban 30
population population land land 20
(%) (%) (%) (%) 10
0
s
e
s
m
ana

esh

i
ize

pt
b ia

Africa 7 12 1
out
ama
inam

tna
land

B el
Egy
G am
G uy
g lad

Asia 13 18 3
V ie

D j ib
B ah

her
S ur

B an

T he
N et

Europe 7 8 2 7
Latin America 6 7 2 7
All but two of the countries are of low or
Australia and New Zealand 13 13 2 13
lower-middle income, a concern from a
North America 8 8 3 6
vulnerability perspective. This is
Small Island States 13 13 16 13
somewhat surprising, given that urban
World 10 13 2 8 settlements are generally more coastal

10 The edge Autumn 2007

than rural, and it is more wealthy countries
that are more urban.
In the world as a whole, but most notably in
Asia, not only are urban populations more
likely to be in the LECZ than rural
populations, but larger urban settlements
are more likely to overlap with the LECZ
than smaller urban settlements. While only
13 per cent of urban settlements with
populations under 100,000 overlap with the
LECZ, this rises to 65 per cent among cities
of five million or more. Of the 10 largest
cities identified in 2005 by the United
Nations, seven (Tokyo, New York, Mumbai
(Bombay), Shanghai, Kolkata (Calcutta),
Jakarta and Buenos Aires) extend into the
zone. Indeed, about 55 million people in
these cities and their contiguous urban areas
live in the zone. Perhaps even more striking,
of the 183 countries with people living in
the LECZ, 130 have their most populous
urban area extending into the zone.
Continued urbanisation is in danger of
drawing still greater populations and
population shares into the low elevation
coastal zone. In China, where export-driven
economic growth has been associated with
very rapid coastal migration, national
population growth between 1990 and 2000
was approximately one per cent, while
growth in the low elevation coastal zone
was 1.9 per cent, and of urban populations
in the zone was 3.4 per cent. Even in
Bangladesh, where urbanisation is not so
BANGLADESH: Bay of Bengal Coastal Region
Urban Extents, by Population Size, 2000
5K-100K 100K-500K 500K-1Mil 1Mil-5Mil
Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Administrative Boundaries (Thana)
NOTE: LECZ layer has been made semi-transparent to
show the underlying layers. Thus the blue colour is not uniform.
BANGLADESH: Bay of Bengal Coastal Region
Urban Extents, by Population Size, 2000
5K-100K 100K-500K
Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ)
NOTE: LECZ layer has been made semi-transparent to
show the underlying layers. Thus the blue colour is not uniform.
Climbing coastal city populations
● The LECZ accounts for two per cent ● Of the 10 largest cities in the world,
of the world’s land area but seven extend into the coastal zone –
contains 13 per cent of the urban amounting to 55 million people.
population. ● 183 countries have people living in
● Worldwide, urban populations are the LECZ – 130 of those have their
more likely to be in the LECZ than most populous urban area extending
rural populations. And it is the into the zone.
larger urban settlements (those ● In China national population growth
with populations over 100,000) that between 1990 and 2000 was
are the most likely to extend into approximately one per cent, while
the coastal zone growth of urban populations in the
LECZ was 3.4 per cent.
clearly a driver, movements towards the
coastal zone are evident, with a total Information contained in this article is
population growth rate of 1.2 per cent, summarised from Gordon McGranahan,
growth in the zone of 2.1 per cent and Deborah Balk and Bridget Anderson
growth in the urban population in the zone (2007), ‘The rising tide: assessing the
of 2.8 per cent. risks of climate change and human
settlements in low elevation coastal
Looking to the future, responses to the zones’, Environment and Urbanization,
growing risks in coastal settlements Vol 19, No 1, pages 17-37.
brought on by climate change will need to
include each of the three Ms – mitigation, Dr Gordon McGranahan is at the
migration and modification – all of which International Institute for Environment
have a long lead-time. Low income groups, and Development, London. Deborah
who often settle the flood plains, are most Balk is at Baruch College, City
at risk. These same groups are most at risk University of New York. Bridget
from hastily constructed government Anderson is at the New York City
policies. All this points to the need for Department of Sanitation
timely action – starting now.
Methodology
This study integrates recently-developed spatial databases of
finely resolved global population distribution, urban extents,
and elevation data to produce country-level estimates of urban
land area and population in LECZ (low elevation coastal zones).
By overlaying geographic data layers, the population and land
area in each country, in its LECZ are calculated and summarised
5Mil+ by country, region, and economic grouping. Shuttle Radar
Topography Mission (SRTM) data was used to delineate a LECZ
including land area contiguous with the coast up to 10 metres in
elevation. Urban extents were taken from Columbia University’s
Center for International Earth Science Information Network’s
Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP). These urban
extents were primarily delineated using NOAA’s night-time
lights satellite data (city lights 1994-95), and represent urban
agglomerations including surrounding suburban areas.
Population and land area were also taken from GRUMP. All data
are expressed at 1km resolution. Figure 3 illustrates, for the Bay
of Bengal region of Bangladesh, the data layers with which the
calculations were made.
For access to the data and related publications, see:
http://sedac.ciesin.org/gpw/lecz.jsp
500K-1Mil 1Mil-5Mil 5Mil+
Administrative Boundaries (Thana)
Figure 3: Map of Bangladesh identifying low elevation coastal zone
and urban extents
The edge Autumn 2007 11