Professional Documents
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and has been throughout the whole of human history.
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The problem is that our use of fossil fuels
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is pushing us further and further out of our little stable dip
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and up the far slope of this hill.
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The tipping point is the point at which we cross the peak of the hill,
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and we no longer need to keep pushing
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to keep the planet moving towards a much hotter place.
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It will just keep rolling onwards, all on its own.
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This tipping point exists because of a set of positive feedbacks in the climate
systems
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mechanisms that can amplify the effects of man-made warming and lead to runaway
change.
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One of them is the Albedo Effect.
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White surfaces reflect more solar radiation than dark surfaces,
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so as global warming from greenhouse gases melts ice and snow,
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it leaves behind dark ocean or land.
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that have been missing from our climate prediction models.
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So far we have only pushed up global temperatures by around 0.8C
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but because of the 40 or 50 year time lag between emissions and temperature rise
,
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the emissions already in the atmosphere
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commit us to raising temperatures by around another 0.6C over the coming decades.
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which could easily be enough to place us right at the peak of the hill
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or even over it.
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If we do pass this critical threshold, global temperatures could soar by as much
as 6C.
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If this happens, the natural world will suffer a mass extinction event
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which will wipe out the majority of the plants and animals with which we share t
he planet.
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although there will be a lot more rats, flies, cockroaches and mosquitoes
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as the world's ecosystems go into meltdown.
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The first human impacts will come in the form of steeply declining access to fre
sh water,
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as rainfall patterns change, glacier-fed rivers dry up,
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and rising sea levels contaminate reservoirs.
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As crops fail, forests burn, deserts spread and coastal regions flood permanentl
y,
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people will start to pack up their things in their billions
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and move on in search of a better life elsewhere.
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But where?
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Humanity might survive this.
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But what will 'humanity' mean in a world where countries which will remain habit
able
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like Britain, spend most of our resources fighting to keep out the starving mill
ions
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who can no longer live in their own countries because of what we have done?
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The world is awash with weapons.
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Enough firearms to arm one in every seven human beings on the planet.
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As the world's ability to support the huge numbers of people alive today dwindle
s,
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we will not die peacefully in our sleep.
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OK, here's the good news:
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None of this is inevitable yet.
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This is not the time to panic or to despair.
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This is the time to act, while we still can.
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We need to recognize that there is a huge question mark
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over whether governments and corporations are capable of responding
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to this threat in the time we have left.
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They have had 20 years already and still have less than nothing to show for it.
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This is because they remain committed to a doctrine that prioritises
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short term profits and endless economic growth over the survival of life on eart
h.
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There is no great mystery about what we need to do
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to reduce emissions in line with the science.
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we simply need to consume less.
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But that is out of the question in a society
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which is founded on the ever-increasing consumption of material resources and en
ergy.
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and those who come after will be powerless to do anything about it.
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But for us, there's still time!
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We'd better get a move on though.
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English version by Leo Murray