Pattamada Chinnapa

The confession game

The setting ! Very often, in game theory we have settings involving confessions. This confession game twists the standard idea a little and discusses love confessions. It is a game that many youths play, and hence it is useful to understand the situation using game theory. The background is deceptively simple: we have one person A, who is attracted to another, B. For the purposes of this discussion we will take A to be male, and B female, but the game does not depend on gender signicantly. The problem of the matter is that A does not know if B is also attracted to him. If she is, he would like to confess to her, but if she isnt and he confesses, she will reject him and this is not desirable for A. ! We assume there is some probability that decides Bs nature. So, p shall refer to the probability that B returns As affection. The game tree

Key: c: confess, dc: dont confess, y: yes, n: no, p= probability that B returns As affection. The upper payoffs correspond to A, while the lower payoffs correspond to B.

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Backward induction ! Using backward induction, we can see that Bs strategy is Yes, no for (like, doesnt like). The rst choice being because payoff 10 of yes is greater than -2 for no. In the case of doesnt like the choice is no, because payoff for yes, -5, is less than the payoff for no, 1. As a result, B doesnt have a dominant strategy, and A cannot predict the outcome. A, naturally, is unaware of whether B returns his affections or not. " As a result, it becomes necessary to calculate the expected payoff of each choice for A. Having to calculate the expected payoff means that the numbers used cannot simply denote the order of preference of result, but also must be proportional to how much A desires each outcome. Payoff justication ! ! The important payoffs to be justied are the 10 that A obtains for like->confess->yes, the -2 For simplicity, this depiction of the game uses the assumption that the utility gained by a that A would obtain for doesnt like->confess->no, and the 0 obtained for not confessing. happy relationship per unit time is approximately equal to the utility lost by a rejection per unit time, from As perspective. This implies that " ! " " " (gain of acceptance) = (time of relationship) x (happiness constant) (loss due to rejection) = (time of depression) x (sadness constant) Simplifying, we understand that the ratio of the payoffs can be determined by the ratio of Or, payoff(accepted) = -k x payoff(rejected)

where (happiness constant) = (sadness constant). amount of time spent in a happy relationship and the amount of time spent feeling depressed.

where k = (length of relationship)/(length of depression). In this game, k is assumed to be 5. However, as k is unique to each individual, the game can easily be modied by setting a desired value of k and recomputing the payoffs accordingly. " In the above calculation, it is assumed that the payoff of not confessing for A is 0. This has been chosen because it is assumed that no change occurs to the situation by not confessing. Were it to be treated otherwise, A would incur a continuous accumulation of either positive or negative payoff simply by not confessing as he is in a continuous state of choosing to not confess until he does. To avoid this, it is appropriate to set his payoff for not confessing at 0. ! Having explained the choice of payoffs, it remains to calculate the expected payoff of both As choices, and use that to conclude his appropriate course of action.

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Expected payoff " ! " " " The expected payoff can be calculated simply by 0.5(p x payoff(accepted)+(1-p) x payoff(rejected)) Which, in this case amounts to: 0.5(p(10)+(1-p)(-2)) = 6p-1 While the payoff of not confessing, in all cases is 0, and hence the expected payoff for A, if

he chooses not to confess, is 0. Therefore, in considering whether to confess or not to confess, we arrive at the simple condition of " " ! 6p-1>0 Or, p > 1/6, as the condition of confession. Simply put, if the probability that B returns As affections

exceeds 1/6, then A should confess. Guessing and effecting the chances " Real life, or perhaps simply potential lovers, unfortunately neglect to inform those who secretly admire them of the probability of success. There exists no constant probability or magic number that works for all cases, and everyone in the standpoint of A is left simply to judge by their own senses what the approximate probability of being accepted is. Furthermore, p is also not a constant. P is dependent on a large variety of factors, including time of acquaintance, quality of interactions, compatibility, mood, method of confession, and many other factors. Furthermore, the form of dependency on these variables also varies from person to person, and might also change with time. As such, it is highly impractical to attempt to create a model that predicts p. Instead, it is suggested that when A prepares to confess, he should attempt to ensure that p is as high as possible using methods that can be deduced from his knowledge of B. Limitations " This game can still only claim to be a simplication of real life. Regardless of measures taken to allow for variability, some further measures have been left out. An example is the variability of the payoffs of acceptance and rejection in both information sets with regards to B. For example, under certain circumstances it maybe undesirable for B to accept a confession from A despite her feelings for him. By no means is this a complete guide to the situation, but hopefully it has succeeded in shedding light, from a game theoretical perspective, on an issue which has, and will continue to affect us all.