The weekly briefing | 27 January 2014

Political and security risk updates

Africa: South Sudan govern ent and re!el forces sign ceasefire agree ent" Americas: #alls in the $rgentine peso threaten President #ern%nde&'s govern ent" Asia and Pacific: (ndia and Japan seek agree ent on civilian nuclear cooperation" Europe: )lashes !et*een govern ent and opposition turn violent in +kraine as first deaths are reported" Middle East: )oordinated attacks in )airo, -gypt, kill at least si. people" Polar regions: (nternational /ariti e Organisation finalises draft Polar )ode for $rctic shipping"

$frica
South Sudan government and rebel forces sign ceasefire agreement $fter ore than a onth of fighting and thousands of casualties, the South Sudan ediators fro the -ast $frican regional trading !loc, the is

govern ent and re!el representatives signed a ceasefire agree ent on 20 January" (t *as !rokered !y to put into place a (ntergovern ental $uthority on 1evelop ent 2(3$14, in $ddis $!a!a" $ key ai aid agencies to alleviate the hu anitarian i pacts of the violence" 5he agree ent arks the first nota!le progress since political crisis in country id61ece !er 2010" -arlier atte pts at e !ers of

onitoring facility for the truce and ena!le unrestricted access to

escalated into outright violence in

negotiation failed, nota!ly due to the controversial issue of detained

the re!el forces" $ccording to $frican reports, the South Sudanese govern ent of President Salva 7iir has no* agreed to release a do&en officials close to re!el leader and for er vice president 8iek /achar, though the ti efra e for their release re ains disputed" 5he fighting of the past five *eeks has caused an esti ated half a illion civilians to flee their ho es, as *ell as endangered the country9s oil industry after re!els te porarily took control of the fields" 5he conflict fuelled ethnic tensions, as 7iir9s govern ent, led !y the 1inka, fought off the ostly :uer re!els"

(t is hoped the ceasefire *ill pave the *ay for !roader national political dialogue in South Sudan" ;o*ever, concerns re ain a!out individual groupings *ithin the re!el ove ent, such as the so6called <hite $r y, *ho ceasefire and ay !e un*illing to respect the ay continue pursuing their o*n ai s" 5he +: reported continued

fighting in several areas of the country despite the ceasefire" (nternational actors, including the +nited States and the -+, have *elco ed the ceasefire *hile stressing the need to enforce adherence and i ple ent a via!le dialogue"

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!ther developments Strikes at three of the world"s biggest platinum mines have stopped production in South Africa# On 20 January, *orkers at the ( pala, $nglo $ erican and =on in total4 e !arked on an indefinite strike" 5he negotiating ta!le after their de and to dou!le the ini u ines 2e ploying up to 100,000 people in onthly *age *as re>ected" 5his arks the

ove *as designed to force their e ployers to the

largest strike !y South $frica9s $ssociation of /ine*orkers and )onstruction +nion 2$/)+4 since the 2012 *age protest in /arikana, *here 04 *orkers *ere shot" 5he country9s deputy president, 7gale a /otlanthe, had announced on 22 January that the govern ent *ould act decisively to enforce la* and order in *age disputes" $nother $/)+ strike planned for 20 January, targeting the gold sector, *as delayed after a court ruling" Tensions further escalated in the $entral African %epublic &$A%' as new interim president $atherine Samba(Pan)a was sworn in on * +anuary# 5he country9s first fe ale leader, Sa !a6Pan&a *as chosen !y a national transitional council after for er President /ichel 1>otodia resigned fro 5he for er president had resigned under international criticis 100,000 of *ho for failing to ste that has progressively *orsened since the /arch 2010 coup, *ith a office t*o *eeks ago" the sectarian violence

illion people fleeing their ho es,

are !eing guarded !y #rench troops around Bangui airport"

The ,ibyan +ustice and $onstruction Party &+-$' announced its withdrawal from the government on 1 +anuary# J?) is the political ar interi of the /usli Brotherhood and the second largest party in =i!ya's

ad inistration" #ive of the party9s

inisters, including those responsi!le for oil and the econo y, otion to censure Pri e /inister

announced their resignation after failing to *in sufficient support for a

$li @eidan" 5he announce ent ca e as it *as revealed that clashes !et*een tri!es, govern ent forces and 3addafi loyalists in the south of the country killed at least AB people and *ounded at least 12A over the past t*o *eeks" 5he clashes *ere sparked !y a revenge attack !y 5a!u tri!es en, of $frican origin, against the $ra! $*lad Sulei an tri!e, in the for er 3addafi stronghold of Sa!ha" !n the radar Tunisia"s new constitution is e.pected to pass/ three years after the revolution, in a to ark the end of political deadlock" ove hoped

The 01 Security $ouncil will consult on developments in 2vory $oast and its operation in the )entral $frican 8epu!lic 2B(:+)$4 as the official andate ends"

3enyan President 0huru 3enyatta"s trial at the 2nternational $riminal $ourt is to be further postponed a ong controversy over *itnesses"

Students plan to march in central Monrovia/ ,iberia/ on 27 January, to de and that the +niversity of =i!eria !e reopened"

4eightened tensions in 1igeria5s %ivers state are likely to cause politically the co ing *eeks"

otivated unrest in

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$ ericas
6alls in the Argentine peso threaten President 6ern7nde)5s government On 22 and 20 January, $rgentina e.perienced its largest currency depreciation since it defaulted on its sovereign de!t in 2001" 5he value of the peso against the dollar slu ped !y al ost 20C during the *eek of 20 January" 5he scale of the devaluation co es as a surprise given that the ad inistration of President )ristina #ernande& de 7irchner has consistently re>ected the possi!ility of a severe depreciation of the peso" (ndeed, the ain support !ase of her #ront for Dictory 2#PD4 party is co prised of iddle and lo*er class citi&ens *ho do not possess the resources to hedge against such risk" $s such, the #ern%nde& govern ent has !la ed foreign speculators for triggering the depreciation" #ollo*ing the )entral Bank of $rgentina 2B)8$4 decision to let the peso depreciate, the govern ent announced that !y 27 January currency controls *ould !e rela.ed and individuals *ould !e per itted to !uy dollars for saving purposes" #urther ore, it *as declared that those ta., do*n fro 0EC" aking dollar purchases for travel reasons *ill !e charged 20C

(n 2011, the #ern%nde& govern ent i ple ented tight currency controls in order to artificially prop up the peso" 5he country faces a 2EC annual inflation rate and has relied on such unorthodo. econo ic easures to cur! capital flight" ;o*ever, such policies have not proven successful, as the B)8$ international reserves fell !y 40C since #ern%nde& took office in late 2011" #urther ore, it has also engendered the for ation of a parallel !lack arket dollar currency *ith a 70C !reach over the official arket" /oreover, it is !elieved arkets, thus in turn providing rate" 5he #ern%nde& govern ent hopes that the recent depreciation *ill alleviate the strain on international reserves and reduce the peso to dollar !reach on the !lack uch needed foreign currencies" 5he #ern%nde& govern ent loss of control over its currency co es at an especially tense o ent" (t *as that it *ill incentivise the local agricultural sector to sell its harvests on the

largely seen as i potent in the face of a nation*ide police strike in 1ece !er 2010 and currently faces an energy crisis 2*ith so e districts of the capital, Buenos $ires, still *ithout electricity4" (n addition, #ern%nde& has only given one pu!lic appearance in the last e ploying *eak econo ic easures that fail to address the onth and at ti e of *riting has not yet of inflation" (f the #ern%nde& populist ade a state ent a!out the recent depreciation" 5he opposition has severely criticised the govern ent for ain pro!le odel continues to prove unsustaina!le, the govern ent *ill !e forced to seek alternative ight lead to a surge in $rgentines s*itching their

easures to sustain current fiscal e.penditures ahead of the Octo!er 201E presidential election" ;o*ever, the deregulation of currency controls deposit accounts fro reserves !eing *eakened further still" !ther developments The 626A delegation has said it was optimistic about 8ra)il5s capacity to hold the 91: football ;orld $up/ despite serious shortcomings# $lthough initially due to !e co pleted !y the end of 2010, five out of the t*elve <ord )up stadiu s re ain unfinished" $nother concern is the teleco *ith a recent report highlighting the ina!ility of current infrastructure to these shortco ings in the co ing onths" Open Briefing | * unications net*ork, o!ile pesos to dollars, *hich *ould result in the peso and the B)8$ international

anage the increase in

and internet usage during the event" Bra&ilian President 1il a 8ousseff *ill !e hard pressed to respond to

$olumbian security forces have attacked a %evolutionary Armed 6orces of $olombia &6A%$' camp# 5he offensive against #$8)'s $lfonso )astellanos /o!ile )olu n *as launched on the evening of 1A January in a rural part of the unicipality of 5a e, in the northeast of the country" 5he airstrikes targeted the #$8) unit's leader, O ar 3uevara 8ivera, *ho is !elieved to have fled to Dene&uela after the assault" +nder President Juan /anuel Santos, the )olu !ian govern ent is currently negotiating the peaceful integration of #$8) into the political syste and a id ongoing co !at" The e.ecution of a Me.ican convict in the 0S state of Te.as has strained the bilateral relationship# On 22 January, -dgar $rias 5a ayo, a /e.ican national, *as e.ecuted !y lethal in>ection after spending 20 years on death ro* in 5e.as for the 1GG4 urder of a police an in ;ouston" 5a ayo *as one of the E1 /e.icans included in the resolution passed !y the (nternational )ourt of Justice in 2004 that de anded a revie* of the cases for a failure to respect the right of consular assistance" 5he /e.ican and +S govern ents had !oth pressed the 5e.an court to revise its >udge ent, !ut to no avail" 5he 5a ayo case highlights concerns over the treat ent of /e.ican prisoners on death ro* in the +nited States" !n the radar The second Summit of the $ommunity of ,atin American and $aribbean States &$E,A$' *ill take place in ;avana, )u!a, on 2A and 2G January" Presidential elections are to be held in Salvador and $osta %ica on 2 #e!ruary" The 2nternational $ourt of +ustice will rule on a maritime frontier dispute between Peru and $hile# Me.ican President Pe<a 1ieto is to meet 0S President !bama and $anadian Prime Minister 4arper in 5oluca, /e.ico, on 1G #e!ruary" =emonstrations against ta. increases are planned in Tegucigalpa/ 4onduras/ on 27 January" F a process that is continuing *ithout a !ilateral ceasefire

$sia and Pacific

2ndia and +apan seek agreement on civilian nuclear cooperation Japan9s Pri e /inister Shin&o $!e has et *ith his (ndian counterpart, /an ohan Singh, to discuss o entu

civilian nuclear cooperation" $!e has said in various state ents that negotiations have gained arket to Japanese investors and co panies and a >oint *orking group has already to cooperate" Both sides have !een keen to e.pand econo ic relations" Such diplo atic activity fro

and !oth countries hope to reach an early agree ent" Such an agree ent *ould likely open up the (ndian et to e.plore *ays

Japan can !e seen, at least in part, in relation to its rivalry *ith )hina" Both utual !enefit of

(ndia and Japan share territorial disputes *ith )hina and analysts have raised the

countering a rising )hina" Japan and (ndia have !een keen to discuss defence links in the *ake of )hina sending surveillance aircraft to the disputed -ast )hina Sea on 24 January" (t is therefore note*orthy that (ndia has also invited Japan to the /ala!ar >oint naval e.ercises !et*een the (ndian and +S navies, *hich takes place in the Bay of Bengal once a year"

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$!e's visit also co es shortly after his courting of $frican countries last *eek F a continent *here )hinese invest ent is already very high and increasing still" $!e's easures against )hinese po*er are not assisting allies in co !at overseas" erely diplo aticH on 2E January, $!e pu!licly proposed changing the govern ent's interpretation of Japan's constitution, *hich restrains the Japan Self61efence #orces fro !ther developments An agreement has been reached in 3uala ,umpur between the Philippines and the Moro 2slamic ,iberation 6ront &M2,6'# 5he agree ent arks the fourth and final part of a road ap for peace, and

paves the *ay for a co prehensive peace treaty after a 406year /(=# guerrilla ca paign" 5he agree ent details ho* re!els *ill surrender their *eapons in e.change for self6deter ination in parts of the south Philippines" 5ens of thousands have !een killed in this separatist fighting and analysts are very opti istic this *ill no* !e !rought to an end" The 01 4igh $ommissioner for 4uman %ights/ 1avi Pillay/ has called on 8urma?Myanmar to carry out a @full/ prompt and impartial investigation5 into reports that %ohingya Muslims have been killed in attacks by 8uddhists in Myanmar5s %akhine state# Pillay revealed that the +: has credi!le infor ation that 4A 8ohingya /usli s *ere killed in early January" :aypyida* have re>ected these clai s" 8akhine state has seen several out!reaks of violence against the 8ohingya /usli s since June 2012, and it *ould !e surprising if these reports *ere not genuine" Eleven people believed to be members of a militant group of 0ighurs have been killed while illegally crossing into 3yrgy)stan from $hina# 7yrgy& !order guards reported on 2E January that the evidence suggests they !elonged to a ilitant organisation of +ighur separatists" 5he +ighurs are a 5urkic ethnic

group living pri arily in )hina's Iin>iang region" 7yrgy&stan, 5a>ikistan, +&!ekistan and 7a&akhstan are e !ers of the Shanghai )ooperation Organisation *hich is >ointly led !y )hina and 8ussia and *ho !elieve ilitant (sla ists pose a a>or threat to regional security"

!n the radar $hina"s ambassador to 8urma?Myanmar says 8eiAing will send an invite to opposition leader Aung San Suu 3yi for an official visit# $ampaigning continues for the election of Tokyo5s governor/ *hich is essentially seen as a referendu on nuclear po*er" 6ebruary election can only be

Thailand5s constitutional court has ruled that the scheduled

postponed if ongoing protests are brought to an end and there is no !oycott of the election" Taiwan5s President Ma Bing(Aeou will undertake an eight(day diplomatic tour of Sao 5o e

and Principe, Burkina #aso and ;onduras, *hich are so e of the fe* $frican countries that still recognise 5ai*an" The opposition 8angladesh 1ationalist Party plan to hold a peaceful procession on 2G January in 1haka"

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-urope
$lashes between government and opposition turn violent in 0kraine as first deaths are reported Protests in +kraine *orsened this *eek as the recently passed anti6protest legislation ca e into force on 20 January" 5*o talks !et*een the govern ent and opposition ove ent !roke do*n" ;o*ever, after the third round of talks on 24 January, President Diktor Janukovych, hoping to appease the de onstrators *ith concessions, pro ised a govern ent reshuffle, as *ell as an a nesty for do&ens of detained activists and changes in the anti6protest legislation" $t the sa e the +krainian president also announced that a special parlia ent push through these changes" 5he protest ove ent has no* spread to nearly half of +kraine, particularly in *estern +kraine *here eeting *ith religious leaders, eeting *ould !e held on 2A January to

Janukovych is generally unpopular and there is strong support for the -uropean +nion" 5here, protestors sei&ed govern ent !uildings and a governor loyal to Janukovych resigned" 5he protests have !uilt o entu over the last *eek" $t least t*o people died and hundreds *ere in>ured during violent clashes ove ent *ith concessions and an announce ent !y the ay have also agreed to the !et*een police and protestors on 22 January" $fter a 246hour ceasefire on 20624 January, the +krainian govern ent hoped to appease the protest arrested leniently" +nconfir ed local general prosecutor that if protest actions *ere halted, the courts *ould treat those *ho had !een edia reports suggest that Janukovych release of all political prisoners over the *eekend" ;o*ever, these proposed concessions *ere largely dis issed !y the opposition and protesters have since erected ore street !arricades around the presidential headKuarters and occupied the /inistry of $griculture !uilding" 5he de onstrators have de anded the dis issal of Pri e /inister /ykola $&arov and the resignation of Janukovych" 5he ove ent !egan as a protest against the +krainian govern ent's +6turn over an association agree ent *ith the -+ !ut has no* *idened to a protest against the perceived isrule of the +krainian leadership"

$ state ent released !y /P and +1$8 party leader Ditali 7litschko, a pro inent opposition leader, clai ed that only international ediation could resolve the standoff !et*een the govern ent and ounting inisters have heavily criticised oned their e !ers have yet to agree on *hether issioner Ltefan #Mle travelled to opposition" Other countries have continued to conde n Janukovych's actions and pressure is on the +krainian govern ent" Both the #rench and 3er an foreign respective +krainian a !assadors" ;o*ever, the -uropean +nion 7iev on 24 January to $&arov's govern ent for allo*ing the security forces to open fire on protestors and su to follo* the +nited States in issuing sanctions against +kraine" -+ )o representative, )atherine $shton, is e.pected to visit ne.t *eek"

ediate !et*een the govern ent and opposition, *hile the -+ foreign policy

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!ther developments !n 9 +anuary/ Eilayat =agestan/ an 2slamic group from the 1orth $aucasus/ posted a video in which they issued threats of terrorist attacks targeting the hosts and visitors to the Sochi ;inter !lympics# (n the video, addressed to President Dladi ir Putin, the terrorists *arned that they the Oly pics in revenge for the deaths of /usli s around the *orld" 5he group originates fro 3er an, ;ungarian, Slovenian and (talian Oly pic co ;ungarian Oly pic )o their security" Silvio 8erlusconi returned to 2taly5s political stage on 1F +anuary after a deal with the leader of 2taly5s centre(left =emocratic Party/ Matteo %en)i# 5he for er pri e inister and head of the ay attack 1agestan,

*hich has seen years of fighting !et*een 8ussian security forces and separatist groups" /ean*hile, the ittees have received terrorist threats in e ails and letters this *eek" ;o*ever, after analysing and assessing a letter targeting ;ungarian Oly pians, the ittee announced that the letter had !een found to !e non6threatening" 5he ittees are *orking *ith their authorities to assess the risk to 3er an, Slovenian and (talian Oly pic co

opposition #or&a (talia party held lengthy talks *ith 8en&i !efore striking an agree ent on electoral and constitutional refor " 5he present (talian electoral syste has left the country *ith *eak coalitions in a>ority recent years" ;o*ever, the deal !et*een the 1e ocratic Party and #or&a (talia has given 8en&i a Party" The Georgian foreign ministry released a statement on 1 +anuary accusing %ussia of moving its border with Abkha)ia/ a breakaway region from Georgia and presently under %ussian occupation# 5he 3eorgians argue that 8ussia therefore !elieve that the oved the !order !y 11 kilo etres for the !enefit of the Sochi Oly pics and ove *ill last until at least *hen the Paraly pic 3a es conclude on the 21 any odifications to the !order &one"

for these refor s, though it has divided the (talian coalition and angered supporters of the 1e ocratic

/arch" /osco* officials have yet to confir !n the radar

The E0(%ussia Summit will take place in 8russels on 2A January" $atherine Ashton will hold E0($hina Strategic =ialogue with Bang +iechi/ the $hinese State $ounsellor/ in Brussels on 27 January"

2taly/ Germany and the 1etherlands have scheduled government bond sales this week in a !id to attract foreign invest ent"

/iddle -ast
$oordinated attacks in $airo/ Egypt/ kill at least si. people #our separate e.plosions in )airo, -gypt, targeted the police headKuarters, a etro station, a police asked

station and a cine a throughout 24 January" 8eports indicate that at least si. people *ere killed and an unconfir ed nu !er of people in>ured" 5he previous day, five police en *ere killed after gun en targeted a security checkpoint at Beni Suef, south of )airo"

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/ilitants have targeted -gyptian security forces across -gypt since a

ilitary coup deposed President inister in Septe !er 2010

/oha ed /orsi in July 2010 !ut attacks have !een steadily increasing since Septe !er 2010" Previous significant incidents include the failed assassination atte pt on the interior and the car !o !ing at a security headKuarters in /ansoura in 1ece !er 2010" /orsi's /usli Brotherhood has !een outla*ed since the coup and -gyptians voted in favour of a ne* constitution in January 2014, replacing one that *as drafted up !y /orsi's (sla ist govern ent in 2012" (t is likely that the coordinated !o !ings in )airo *ere carried out !y not recognise the appointed interi a significant increase in the capa!ility of ilitants *ho re>ect the recent constitution and do govern ent" 5he scale of the coordinated attacks in )airo represents ilitants *ithin the country" $nsar Beit al6/aKdis 2the )ha pions

of Jerusale 4, a group !ased pri arily in the Sinai, have clai ed responsi!ility for the attacks" One of the e.plosions targeted a cine a and another a no* *illing to target civilians and etro station, and it is possi!le that ilitants are

ay also seek out soft targets else*here in the country" ;o*ever,

further attacks of this nature *ill likely continue to pri arily target govern ent and security assets over the co ing *eeks" /oreover, clashes !et*een pro6/orsi de onstrators and security forces can !e e.pected in the capital follo*ing the anniversary of the 2011 revolution, *hich re oved -gypt's long6ti e President ;osni /u!arak fro !ther developments At least 1C people were killed in two car bombs at the 8ab al(4awa border crossing between Syria and Turkey on 9 +anuary# 5he crossing is controlled !y the (sla ic #ront, a Syrian opposition alliance that has !een fighting *ith the (sla ic State of (raK and the =evant 2(S(=4 in the north of Syria" (t is unclear *ho carried out the attack !ut opposition fighters have !la ed the recent increase in the use of car !o !s in the north of the country on the al6Naeda affiliated group (S(=" 5he e.plosion occurred on the Syrian side of the !order and forced the closure of the 5urkish !order" #urther violence in the north of Syria is likely in the short ter area" $lashes between Shi5a 4outhi rebels and Sunni tribesmen in northern Bemen left at least 1 people dead on 1F +anuary# Overnight fighting !et*een rival sects !roke out as ;outhi re!els atte pted to capture a ountain in O ran province" (t is reported that eight ;outhi re!els and four Salafi tri!es en as a coalition of (sla ist groups fight to oust the largely foreign presence of (S(= fro the po*er"

*ere killed" Diolence !et*een ;outhi re!els and Salafi (sla ists has plagued O ran and Saada provinces and the north of Je en" 5his latest incident of violence under ines a ceasefire !et*een the t*o groups" ;outhi interi inorities accuse the Je eni govern ent of discri ination and reconciliation efforts !y the govern ent have so far failed to end the violence"

A bus carrying Shi5a pilgrims was targeted in 8alochistan province/ southwest Pakistan/ on 1 +anuary# $t least 2G people *ere killed as they travelled !ack fro pilgri age sites" Sunni neigh!ouring (ran, ho e to any Shi'a

ilitant group, =ashkar6e6Jhangvi, have since clai ed responsi!ility for the !us unity have pro pted a ilitary

!o !" 5he group has ties to the Pakistani 5ali!an and has previously targeted Shi'a groups in Balochistan province" Sit6in de onstrations in the provincial capital, Nuetta, !y the Shi'a co operation against =ashkar6e6Jhangvi and has also suspended the situation i proves" govern ent response to the situation in Balochistan" 5he Pakistani govern ent has launched a

ove ent of pilgri s until the security

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!n the radar The !rganisation for the Prohibition of $hemical ;eapons &!P$;' is to announce the commercial destruction facilities that will be responsible for destroying chemical weapons shipped out of Syria# Syrian peace talks will conclude in Geneva this week/ *ith hu anitarian issues e.pected to !e high on the agenda" The adAourned trial of Egypt5s former President Mohammed Morsi is to resume on 1 #e!ruary" =emonstrations are possible across Bemen on 11 #e!ruary to civil uprising" 3uwait $ity will celebrate the 1FC1 founding of the state on 2E #e!ruary" ark the anniversary of the 2011

Polar regions
2nternational Maritime !rganisation finalises draft Polar $ode for Arctic shipping On 24 January, the (nternational /ariti e Organisation 2(/O4 finalised the draft of a OPolar )ode' of safety and environ ental rules to regulate shipping traffic in the $rctic" 5hus far, no such special regulation e.ists for the $rctic, in contrast to the $ntarctic" 3iven the rapid increase in the nu !er of ships e.ploiting the :orthern Sea 8oute fro Scandinavian *aters to $sia that has !een seen over the past fe* years, environ ental groups such as the <<# in :or*ay have !een ca paigning for the adoption of ne* regulations" ;ead of <<# :or*ay :ina Jensen engaged in a fierce !attle of opinions *ith shipping agnate #eli. 5schudi at an $rctic conference in the :or*egian to*n of 5ro so in the days i !usinesses and environ ental organisations over the e.act for Jensen, together *ith other environ entalists, e.pressed t*o that regulation should take" ain concerns that potential regulation on use in glo!al ediately running up to the finalisation of the draft" 5heir opposing stances neatly illustrate the various concerns of

should seek to address" 5he first focuses on the use of heavy fuel oil, *hich is in co

shipping !ut could have disastrous effects on $rctic ha!itats in the case of spillage or leakage" 5he second and related concern seeks to ensure that all vessels traversing $rctic shipping routes !e specially eKuipped for e.tre e northern conditionsH the desired regulation *ould reKuire that all ships entering $rctic *aters have thickened hulls, cre*s fully trained in $rctic conditions, and !e su!>ect to various speed li its" /any in the !usiness co easures *ould )anal" #or the o ent it appears that the shipping industry has *on the de!ate" 5he final draft pu!lished on 24 ade the unity, such as 5schudi, o!>ect to these regulations, arguing that the ake $rctic shipping unprofita!le in co parison to the e.isting route through the Sue&

January did not include a !an on the use of heavy fuel oil and, arguing that retreating sea ice had !la ed the lo!!ying activities of the shipping and cruise industries, *hich they accuse of e.erting pressure on the (/O to pursue their cause *ith no concern for environ ental conseKuences" 5he

shipping season sufficiently safe, had no regulation as to hull thickness or speed li its" -nviron entalists

environ ental organisations involved *ill likely no* refocus their attention onto the /ariti e Safety )o ittee and the /arine -nviron ent Protection )o ittee, the t*o international !odies *hose approval *ill have to !e o!tained !efore the Polar )ode !eco es international la*"

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!ther developments 1orwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg declares @oil will be part of the future5 in response to environ entalists fro the :ature and Jouth Organisation *ho handed her a !o. containing t*o

thousand signatures against $rctic oil drilling on 20 January" $ccording to the environ entalists, the signatures are evidence of popular opposition to $rctic drilling" /ean*hile, in an indication that the pri e inister's *ords are ore than si ply rhetoric, the :or*egian Petroleu 1irectorate announced on 21 January that a record nu !er of oil co panies have applied for production licenses on the :or*egian continental shelf, and BE have !een a*arded" 5he high nu !er are in the $rctic" The =irector of the %ussian 2nstitute of Political and Military Analysis/ Ale.ander Sharavin/ has asserted that %ussia5s current military presence in the Arctic suffices for the protection of national interests in the region# 5his is in contrast to recent declarations fro 8ussian President Dladi ir Putin a>ority 20A4 are in the :orth Sea !ut of the others a

that /osco* should step up its involve ent in the region" Professor Sharavin said that divisions of the :orthern #leet together *ith 8ussian paratroopers already provide the necessary ilitary capa!ilities" Sharavin also used his speech, at the roundta!le discussion group O(nterests of :ational 1efence in the $rctic', to press for a speedy finalisation of 8ussia's territorial clai s on the $rctic shelf, *hich it has until the end of 2014 to present to the +: )onvention on the =a* of the Sea" Sovcomflot/ %ussia5s largest shipping company/ officially launched the Eeliky 1ovgorod on 1 +anuary# 5he ship *ill !eco e the largest carrier in 3a&pro 's fleet to transport =iKuified :atural 3as 2=:34 fro fields in the $rctic to foreign arkets" 5he huge tanker *ill !e follo*ed !y a sister ship, the ay !e getting serious a!out drilling ore gas in the $rctic and

Pskov, *hich is due for delivery in Septe !er 2014" 5he ships indicate that 3a&pro , after years of sluggish or poorly targeted invest ent, arkets" !n the radar $anada5s Arctic Policy $ommission is to present its report to the $anadian parliament on *9 +anuary *ith reco develop ent" 6lights to Scandinavian countries and %ussia may face disruption/ as industrial action has !een called !y $5)-+), the -uropean representatives of 2A unions and over 14,000 controllers" Academics and engineers will meet in ,ondon from :(> 6ebruary at the @ nd 2MarEst Arctic Shipping and Technology $onference5# 5he discussion *ill focus on ho* to prepare vessels for $rctic conditions *hile ensuring shipping re ains profita!le" Scientists and glaciologists will meet in !ttawa from *(> 6ebruary to discuss the and apping of $rctic 3laciers" odelling endations on *hat the state should do to prepare for and foster $rctic diversifying its custo er !ase, *hich for the last decade has !een al ost e.clusively located in -uropean

Published with intelligence support from Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www#bradburys#co#uk

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