Global Sea Level Rise

Laury Miller
NOAA Lab for Satellite Altimetry

Why Measure Sea Level Rise? Inundation Will Have a Catastrophi Impa t

Whats Causing Global Warming?

Heat In omin!

Heat Out!oin!

Net Heat Input Causes Global Warmin!

"op of Atmosphere

Where Does the Heat Go?

Amount of Heat Absorbed by +arts of #arth Climate System Over +ast )( ,ears Net Heat Input to #arth System

$Levitus et al%& GRL& '(()*

84% -- Saved By The Oceans!

What is the most obvious consequence ?

Mean Sea Level Rise& -./(0'(((1 2-%/ mm3yr& 4ith an in rease in the rate of rise
Satell+te alt+'etry

Hol ate and !ood"orth, 2004 #.8 $%- 0.& ''%yr (#)60 to 2000*

Church et al., 2004, 2006

Altimeter Recor o! Sea Level Rise "ver #ast $% &ears

Sea Level Rise 'rom (o)e* + ,ason-$. $//0-1223

GLOSS "ide Gau!es

5Sea Level Rise is s)atially4 highly non-uni!orm 5 (i e gauges are im)ortant4 but )rimarily !or altimeter calibration

Whats Causing Sea Level Rise?

I e Melt + Heat = Sea Level Rise

More Water& More Mass

"hermal #6pansion& More 7olume

Sea Level 8ud!et Chan!es With "ime

Current Rate 5early (6ice the 12th Century Rate Largely Due to 7olume Changes -9'( 0 -99( -99' 0 '((:
:%' mm3yr

-%. mm3yr -%: mm3yr (%; mm3yr

-%/ mm3yr -%; mm3yr

m u l 7o

e Ma

ss

al t "o

m u l 7o

s a M

al t "o

Sources o! 8ce Melt + #otential 8m)act on Sea Level

/( m

<m Antar ti a Greenland

(%/ m Mountain Gla iers

Arctic Sea 8ce 8s Disa))earing At Recor Rate

Summer -9/9

Summer '((:

"he loss poses !rave environmental dan!ers = but not Sea Level Rise = 9Archime es #rinci)le:

Cryospheric sea-level rise: glaciers ice sheets 8ce Melt Contributions to Sea and Level Rise. Glaciers + 8ce Sheets
Sea Level Rise $>* ? 8#CC & '((<@@ -((> A -%'. mm a0 Antar ti a
-(

Greenland
'(

Sea Level Rise $>* ? Meier et al; & '((/@ -((> A -%. mm a0Antar ti a
-(

Gla iers
/(

Mountain Gla iers Are Currently the 8i!!est Sour e& 8ut +robably Not Bor Lon!%

Greenland
'.

Gla iers
<'

Sea Level Rise $>* ?latest GRAC# data*@ -((> A '%' mm a0Antar ti a
'(

Gla iers
;(

Konrad Steffen, Steve Nerem,CIRES, Univ. of Colorado

Greenland
:(

Greenlan 8s a Gro6ing Worry Its i e sheets are flo4in! faster to4ards the o ean durin! summer% +ossibly due to surfa e melt 4ater as adin! do4n revases and providin! lubri ation at the i e3ro C interfa e%

Ho6 8s (he "cean Heat Distribution Measure ?

Ar!o +rofiler Array

Starting in 12224 Argo Attaine Global Coverage o! the "ceans< in 5ov 1223

1 +ce-,ree oceans

Courtesy o, -ath+eu Bel.eoch, /r o 0n,or'at+on Center

Ho6 accurate are the )ro=ections?

I+CC proDe ts sea level to rise 2:(0.( m by '-((

2econstructed record ,ro' t+de au es

Satell+te alt+'etry

-odel 3ro4ect+on

The add+t+onal land-+ce uncertainty

Observed sea level is risin! at the upper limit of I+CC "AR proDe tion that in ludes a Eland0i e un ertaintyF <4
th

Assessment Report

Rahmstorf et al., Science, 2007

Can We Close the Sea Level >u get?

"otal Sea Level

Gason A H:%< mm3yr Ar!o H GRAC# A H(%< mm3yr

7olume Sea Level Ar!o A 0(%; mm3yr Mass Sea Level GRAC# A H(%. mm3yr
Willis& Chambers J Nerem& ,GR& '((.