You are on page 1of 102

<>

6000

2007 2 27
3000 9%

2 27 2

3:30

2003 9
2004
5

2006 3
4

2007 4

2007 10

2006 3

2006 6

2006 10

2007

2007

2007 1


2007 6

2003

2006 3

2006 3


1250

20 80

2006

2007 3 FT

FT

2007 2

2005
2006 GDP 10%

2007

2005

20022004

2005

1994
2005 7


19952002
25%
30

2002
18
2005 9
2002 10
2002

30


2001
2005

2001

2006 20 90

2007 10




1
3

5
7
14
23
33
50
51

53

54

55

57

59

61
68
2006 79
87
2007 89

2007

91
94
97
100
104
110
115
118
122
128
131
136
137

139
140
2007 149
2007 153
158
172
175
177

179
181
184
2004 186
20 80 190
20 80 198
204
206
210

215

217
221
225

230
235
239
243
247
251
256
260
265
270
274
279
283
285
293
21 300
1 305
2 314

20032005

2005

2006

2006 3 1250


2007 10 ()
(1)
2005
2004

2005 4
2005 6

2006 2006

2006

2005 4
2005 12

12 20%
28%
1-1-1%
CEIC

GDP

GDP 2005
12 PPI 2005 4 GDP
2005 12

2005 12

1-1-2 GDP %
CEIC
2006 4 6 721
53% 100
2005 4 20% 10% 2005
4
2006 12
2005 111 12 PPI
2005 12

(2)

2005
2004
GDP GDP
2005

2005

1-1-3%
CEIC

1992

2005


2005
2004 2004
2005

1-1-4
2005 2

1
1-1-4 GDP GDP NX/GDP%
CEIC
GDP GDP

2002

2005

2005 4

1-1-5
1-1-5
CRU

(1)

19921995 2000 20022004

1-1-6M2 GDP %
CEIC
M2 1997
GDP 2002
2 2002 23

GDP

GDP 2003
2004 2
2004 4 GDP
2004 4

GDP
GDP GDP

2005 3 GDP
2005 3

2002 3 2005 3
2002 3 5
15% 2005 3 3

2001 1-1-7

1-1-8

1-1-7%
CEIC
1-1-8%
bloomberg
(2)
2005
19% 16%
1-1-9

1-1-9M2%
CEIC

2005
1-1-10
1-1-11
2005
1-1-10

CEIC
1-1-11
CEIC

1-112 1-1-13
1-114

1-1-12%
()
,.
1-1-13%
(CEIC)
1-1-14%
(CEIC)

1-1-15
1-1-15%
(CEICWind)

(1)

2006 1 2005
12

15%16%

2004 2005

15%
1-1-16
1-1-16%
()

15%

1-1-172005 34

1-1-17%
()
Q Q1 1

2005

2005 3

200

(2)

1-1-18 1-1-19
1-1-20

1-1-18
(Wind)

1-1-19
(Wind)
1-1-20 GDP %
(CEIC)

1-1-21 GDP %
CEIC

1-1-22 M2 %
CEIC
2004 3

1-1-23

1-1-23 GDP %
CEIC

1-1-24
1-1-24%
CEIC

2005 3
1-1-25

1-1-25 3000 %

(1)

19951997

19951997

20 40 ( 1-1-26)

1-1-26 A A
Wind
19951997

2005 5

1-1-27 1-1-31
1-1-272000 =100

1-1-282000 =100

1-1-292000 =100

1-1-302000 =100

2005 1
2005 4
2006 1-1-32
1-1-312000 =100

1-1-32 10 %

2005

1-1-33
1-1-33

20 90


(2)
1985
1-1-34 GDP
1-1-35

1-1-36 1-1-37 1-1-38 1973

1-1-342000 =100
IFS
1-1-35 GDP GDP %
WorldBankBloomberg
1-1-36%
Bloomberg
1-1-37 225
Bloomberg
1-1-38
CEIC
19851990
1973 (
1-1-39) 19871989
1973 1-1-40
1985

1-1-39%
CEIC
1-1-40+CDs/

CEIC

20 90

1-1-41

1-1-42 1-1-43 1-1-46


1-1-48 1-1-49
1-1-41

CEIC
1-1-42CRB 1967 =100
CEIC
1 1 CRB
1-1-43%
Bloomberg
1-1-442000 EBITDA %
Bloomberg
1 EBITDA
1-1-45%
CEIC
1-1-46%
Bloomberg
1-1-47%

Bloomberg
1-1-48
Bloomberg
1-1-49
Bloomberg
(3)

1.

20%

2.

2006 4
(1)

2006 1 13%

2005

10%11%

:20 90

2003

1985 2003
2005

(2)

AnimalSpirit

911


12

QFII

2007

2030

2006 3

2006 5

2006 67
1700

2006

2007 10 ()
(1)
1-2-11997 %
CEIC
1-2-1 1997
21 2002
2003 2005 10

2003
1-2-1
2002 2003
2005
4
2003 2004
2005

2002 2003

2005 2005

1-2-2
CEIC
1-2-2

2003 5 2004 9

1-2-3
CEIC
(2)
2004 9
2005 1

2004 10

2004 10 CPI
2005 10

CPI

2004

16%
16%

16%


5%

(1)
1-2-4 1996 PPI

1-2-41996 PPI %
CEIC

PPI

PPI
PPI PPI

2005 10
2005 10
2006 5

2006 PPI
PPI
OECD 2005
2006

OECD 2006
PPI 2006 PPI
PPI
2006

PPI
PPI

PPI
2000 2002 2004
PPI 2001 2005 2006 1
PPI
OECD PPI
2006 4 2007 1

30%
30%
CPI- PPI GDP
1-2-5 1-2-6
1-2-5 PPI CPI-%

CEIC
1-2-6 CPI- GDP %
CEIC
CPI- PPI GDP

CPI-
PPI
PPI

n n-1

OECD PPI
PPI

PPI
PPI
PPI2006
CPI CPI
2007
CPI

2006
CPI PPI CPI PPI OECD

1-2-7

(2)
1-2-7 PPI
2004
2005 4

1-2-8
1-2-8
CEIC
1-2-8 2002 2004

2006

2006 70.4%

2003
PPI

PPI PPI

2006
PPI PPI PPI

1-2-9
1-2-9OECD %
IFSBloomberg
OECD 69
OECD 2006
PPI OECD
PPI
PPI 2000 2002 2004 2006
OECD 2001 2003 23
2005 PPI OECD

1999 2006
2000 2006

2000 2006 OECD


PPI
OECD
OECD

OECD
2004 1-2-10
1-2-10 OECD %
CEICIFS
2003 9 2004 9

2004

OECD PPI

OECD

2005 OECD
PPI OECD
OECD
2006
PPI
OECD

OECD
1 2005 OECD

OECD

2006 (1)
2006

2006 (2)

1-2-1%

0.60

0.43

5.79

0.57

0.37

4.61

4.06

0.21

0.37

0.35

0.26
0.21

8.60

-1.11

0.21

3.92

-0.64

0.19

0.19

5.73

0.48

1.48

0.18

3.88

-0.43

4.17

0.07

0.18
0.14

0.12

3.15

0.12

10.85

-4.00

5.07

0.83

0.12

0.06

0.11

0.11

3.91

0.10

-0.11
4.20

0.57

0.11

0.11

3.91

0.10
0.10

0.09

0.08

0.06

4.20

18.22

8.02

0.08

-0.11

0.05

0.42

7.31

3.96

0.57

0.21

-0.06

0.06

3.73

0.03

0.05

3.47

0.48

0.05

-3.51

-4.64

0.03
0.03

0.03

0.03

3.86

0.65

0.03

0.03

6.02

3.87

-0.08

0.60

0.02

0.02

4.65

0.12

0.02

0.01

0.01

2.60

2.80

0.17

0.65

0.01

0.00

7.61

-1.04

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

16.70

-0.05

-0.06
-0.10

6.77

-0.12

4.51

0.22

-0.16

1.54

-0.28

1.56

-0.20

-0.37

54.42

-0.41

4.30

-0.54

-0.57

3.14

-3.61

-0.94
-1.78
CEIC
2006 (3)
1-211
2006

1-2-11%
(CEIC)
2006

2006

1-2-12
1-2-12%
(CEIC)

1-2-13 2004 4

1-2-13%
(CEIC)
1-2-14

1-2-14%
(CEIC)


OECD

OECD

2006
2006 7

2006 10 1800

2007

2007

GlobalSavingsGlut1990

5000 10000

1800 3000

FT
FT

2007
2007 10 ()

(2006 3 ) 2005 10

2006 6

2006 4 2007 1
30%
CPI
CPI


2007

2007

2007

2007


2007 1 OECD
2007
PPI
2007
2007

2007
2005

20032005
2006 1 15% 2007 23

2007
10%30%
2007
2007

2007 20%30%

2007

20 90

1-3-1
CEICIFS
M2-M0

1-3-1


2006 6 3

1-31
M2
M2 M0
M2-M0 M2M0
M2

20042005
2006

20%

CentralBankDomesticCredit -

M0()()
()()
M0()


()

()
1
2

(1)
3

1-3-2

NeutralInterestRate

1-3-2

(2)

2006

2006

911

911

2004 4 2005 3

1-3-1

2007
2007 GDP 2006
2007

2005 2006

3()2006

2007 2007
2007

1-3-3
1-3-3%
CEIC
=-
1-3-3 1982
GDP

1985 1998
2005

1991


2006

2004 4
20
2004

1998
1999
2002 2003
2004

1-3-4%
IFS
1=-
2 2006H1 2006 ,
1-3-4 1992

20022004 ,
2004

1-3-5%
IFSCEIC

20 90

3
4

3% 1%
1% 3%

3%

1% 7%

2004 4 2005
4 2004 4 2005 3
2005 3


2005 4


( 1-3-6)
1-3-6 GDP %
CEIC
1-3-6 1995
1998 4.2%2004 4
GDP 7%
19961998
1999

1-3-7 A A
Wind
1-3-7 19951996 20
50 19971998
40

1996 19992001

1-3-8 GDP %
IFS

2006 /GDP 1-9 2006


2006
1-3-8 1996
19992001 2000

2000

2001

2002

2004 4 2005 34

2003 2004

2007
2006 1

2001
1996

2007

2006 2007

1-3-9 GDP %
IFSCEIC
1-3-9 1983 1987
4.1%
1994
1-3-10
1-3-10
IFSCEIC
1-3-10 1983 20
1983
20
19831987
1987 60 1993
1994

19971998 2002
2004 20 70
20022004

2004 4

2004

2006 2
2000
2005

1-3-11%
IFSCEIC
1-3-11 1987 1988
1991

1991

1995

20 90

20 90

1-3-12%

IFS
1-3-12 1995 2001

1-3-13
Bloomberg
=Px/Ebitda
1995 , Ebitda 1
1997 3

4

2007


1-3-14
1-3-14%
CEIC
1-3-14
19881990

20012005

(1)

1-3-15%

1-3-15 61
5

1-3-16/%

CEIC
(2)
1-3-16

100
80

85 80

=80 +5

ATM

2006 2006

2006

OECD

2007

2007
2007
2006 11

2007 3000

2007


2007

2007 10 ()
(1)

2006 3

20 80

100
100

2006

(2)



2005

(3)

2007
GDP

2007

20 90

20 80
2001

2007

1-4-1 20 90
2006 11 20 90

1-4-120 90 %
CEIC

19951996
19951996
1997

2002
2005

2007

2006
20 90
2007 2006


1-4-2
1-4-2%
CEIC
20 80
2004 4

1-4-3
1-4-3 CPI%

2004
2006 3
2006 4
2006 4

2007

2007

2007
2007
1-4-4 1993
OECD 2001

OECD
1-4-419932001 OECD %
CEICOECD
2001 2001 1-45
GDP GDP

1-4-52001 2006 OECD %


CEICOECD

GDP

2001 10
16 2001
26 2001

10
WTO
2002 ( 1-4-6)

1-4-6%

IFSCEIC

1-4-7 OECD
OECD 2006 4
OECD
1-4-7OECD OECD %
OECD
OECD 2007 1
2007 2007
OECD

2007

2001 26

2007
2007 2500 2007
GDP 2007
2007 2007
OECD 2007

2006 4 OECD

(1)

1-4-8 20 90

1-4-8%
CEIC
2002
2002
2001 2005
21 1995 2000 9.5 1990 2000
14
( 1-4-9) 1995
2000 12 2001
21
1-4-9%
CEIC
2001 6

1-4-10
2001
20 90 9.5% 2001 15

1-4-10%
CEIC

2001
2000
2001

6
2001


2001

2001

1-4-11%
CEIC
1-4-11 2002

1993 2000 61
5 70

1-4-12%
CEIC
2006E
1-4-12 GDP 2001
0.7 2001 1.4

GDP 2000
0.262001 1
2001

2001
1-4-13


1-4-13%
CEIC
2000

2000

1-4-14
20 90 6.7% 2000
23% 2000 1.5%2000
8.6%

1-4-14%
CEIC

(2)

WTO
2001
2002
1-4-15
2002
1-4-15Sedan%

CEIC
1-4-16%
CEIC

20012002

1-4-17%
CEIC

2002
1-4-18FOF %
CEIC
2003 2004-2005

1-4-19%
CEIC
20012002

14-20
1-4-20%
CEIC
1 2002

10
219912001 3.2%20022006
5.3% 3.1% 4.6%
20002001

20 90

20 90

1-4-21%
CEIC
2007
2007

2007

1-4-22%
CEIC

1-4-22 2000

1-4-23 GDP 2000


2002
1-4-23 GDP %
CEIC
2005
2001


1-4-24

1-4-24%
CEIC
1996
2000

2004

2007

2007

2007

2002
2007 2


2007 67 4000

2007

2007


2007 10 ()

2006

1986 1989
4 12 1987 1989


2005

20032004

1-5-1 2005
GDP
1-5-1 GDP %
CEIC

2004

2003 8 2005 5
24% 12% 1-5-2

1-5-2%
CEIC
2004 2 2005 2
5.7% 7.46% 176 27
1-5-3
2004 2 2005 2

1-5-3%

1
1
2004 2 2005 2

2004 4 1780 2005 7 1000

2005 5 2006 4
12% 15%
1-5-2 1-5-3

2004 4

2004 2 2005
2 2005 3 2006 1
2006 1
-15%
2005 2006 1

20 80
(1)

1-5-4 GDP %

CEIC
1983 1986
GDP 20%
1987
1-5-5 CPI%
CEIC
1982 1987
3.5% 15%
3% 1.5%
1983 500
1986 1000
1987 1990 13%
6% 1% 4%

12 1000 12000

1-5-6

1986 8 1989 1
5% 40% 8
1980
1-5-6%
IFS

1-5-71986
9% 1989
2.5% 1986 1989

1-5-7%

CEIC
1-5-8
CEIC
1-5-8
1986 8
1000 1990 12000 11
1983 24

20 80
(2)
1-5-9

1-5-9%
CEIC
19881990

1-510

1-5-10%
CEIC

19881990

19881990

CarryTrade
1986 1987

1990

1983 1986

20 80

1982 1986
1986 GDP 4.1% 2007
10% 1986 1989
4
1-5-11 GDP %
CEIC
1986 1989

1-5-12 GDP %
CEIC
1-5-12 1986 1989
GDP
( 1-5-13) 1987 1989
5%6%
2%
1-5-13%
CEIC
1987 1989

1-5-141987 20000
1990 40000

1-5-14%
CEIC
1-5-15
1-5-15%
CEIC
1989

1-5-16 1-5-17
1989

1988 128 1990 145

19881989

1-5-16%
CEIC
1-5-17
CEIC

1983 1986
1986 1988
1989 1990

1989 69

GDP
GDP

4000 20000

1987 1989

2007
2006 3

2002 2003 8 12% 24%

20022004

2007
2007 1 5
70%
6.58% 6.51%
7

2006

2007
2007
2007 1 100% 100%

2006 10

2007 1

2007 1

19861987

19861987


19881989

2007
1-5-18 1-5-19

1-5-20

1-5-21

1-5-18%
CEIC
1-5-19%
CEIC
1-5-20%
CEIC
=--FDI
1-5-21%
IFSCEIC

19861987


2007 7

You might also like