Good afternoon, and welcome to The Rundown.

Next time, let's think about putting the Olympics somewhere where there actually is snow -- how about Washington, DC? And for the ski jump, competitors can jump from the high point of what Congress is supposed to achieve to the low point of what is actually done. A daunting drop indeed. Best, Your AEI Foreign and Defense Policy Studies team

Tweet of the Week

Leon Aron @AronRTTT @AronRTTT: The #Putin Olympics: Corruption, a jihad next door and no snow. What was he thinking? My take in @POLITICOMag: ow.ly/sSi7e

In the News
Middle East and Afghanistan
Al Qaeda leadership disowned the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) in a maneuver that could alter the trajectory of the fight against Syrian President Bashar Assad. Katherine Zimmerman's latest for The Washington Post asks: What exactly is al-Qaeda? And who cares? She writes, Confusion about how to define the terrorist group is rife. Was al -Qaeda involved in the Sept. 11, 2012, attacks in Benghazi, Libya, that left four Americans dead? The Obama administration says no. Are the groups proliferating around Africa and the Middle East really part of the al-Qaeda that toppled the World Trade Center and hit the Pentagon? Also watch Zimmermans AEI Top Three video breaking down the op-ed. In the New York Times Room for Debate, Danielle Pletka weighs in on developments in Egypt: If the Middle East is ever to emerge from the dark ages of dictatorship, there must be a transition -- a first step away from the kings, ayatollahs, emirs and presidents-for-life that have tyrannized hundreds of millions of Arabs and Persians. What is that transition? Some believed a chastened Muslim Brotherhood would embrace a new pragmatism. Others hoped that the liberals who fueled so much of the Arab Spring could translate their protest movements into political leadership. Neither was right. And so Egypt will lead the return to the bad old days. John Bolton denounces the interim nuclear deal with Iran for National Review Online: We can only hope

that skeptics in Congress and the public will take Obamas measure on Iran, because under whatever metrics one can imagine, we are on a course toward failure, a failure with potentially mortal consequences for Israel and other U.S. friends, and ultimately even for America itself. If the Geneva Joint Plan of Action does not yet quite measure up to Munich 1938, it will soon be a close second. In the Wall Street Journals Obama flirts with losing the must-win war, Frederick W. Kagan explains why withdrawal from Afghanistan will be a defeat for America and a victory for al Qaeda: Politicians on both sides of the aisle can speechify and expound arguments about how we are winning and losing simultaneously, and how, either way, we should leave now. They may persuade themselves and the American people. But they will be just as wrong as George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton were to ignore Afghanistan in the 1990s, to our great pain and suffering. President Hamid Karzai has not been a reliable ally, but the Obama administration should decide on the size and scope of its post2014 engagement in Afghanistan based on national security needs in South Asia rather than the Afghan presidents erratic behavior. For a description of how the US is poised to repeat mistakes in Afghanistan, see Ahmad Majidyars AEIdeas blog post here.

Russia
Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, who is restricted from roaming outside Moscow, has requested permission to visit Sochi during the Winter Olympics, according to his press secretary. Leon Arons latest op-ed on Sochi, "Will Russias Olympics be Putins triumph?," is up in The Washington Post's Outlook section. Aron writes, If Sochi sparks a national anti -corruption movement, if it forces the regime to begin the deep institutional reforms greater government accountability, more honest elections, courts not for sale, increased political competition without which corruption cannot be diminished, then this impulse would undoubtedly become the most welcome and lasting legacy of the Sochi Olympics." Also check out his Politico Magazine piece here.

Asia
China has accused Japan of heightening regional tensions with rumors that Beijing planned to declare a new air-defense zone over the South China Sea. Derek Scissors takes to the AEIdeas blog to react to the news that Chinese tech giant Lenovo made a bid for Googles Motorola Mobility, which makes Android and Bluetooth products. He writes, Things just got ugly. There is now such a stark contrast between how the US treats Chinese technology companies and how China treats US technology companies that Congress may throw a fit. And it will be justified, even if the result harms Sino-American relations. The American market should be genuinely open to all foreign partners of good faith. The Peoples Republic of China is not acting like one at present and has to be treated accordingly. In Foreign Policy magazines Shadow Government blog, Dan Blumenthal and Mike Green write, Japan and China: Not yet 1914, but time to pay attention. Their piece concludes, If the administration maintains a cool distance in hopes it will prevent escalation, the result will be more hedging by America's allies and a greater temptation for Beijing to think a quick grab of disputed territories will go unanswered. In other words, the current state of affairs increases the chance of escalation. Nobody is sleepwalking in Beijing. It seems as though Washington is. And in Americas schizophrenic Asia policy, Michael Auslin writes, While the reduction in the number

of US aircraft carriers does not mean that war will automatically break out, the Obama Administration (and Congress) appears perfectly comfortable testing the proposition that a smaller US military presence abroad will not lead to greater instability. In his most recent Wall Street Journal column, Sadanand Dhume asks whether Rahul Gandhi is a liability for Indias ruling Congress party. He writes, On the face of it, the 43-year-old Congress vice president and scion of the Nehru-Gandhi clan seems a hapless dilettante unsuited for the hurly-burly of politics. But although Mr. Gandhi's immediate electoral prospects look bleak, his long-term odds of becoming prime minister remain high.

Defense
Defense officials are reportedly considering a host of changes to military personnel benefits, including health care, housing allowances, and access to on-base commissaries. It is time for members of Congress to address the growing imbalances within the defense budget, which are having a direct and harmful impact on Americas defenses. In Shooting the Pentagon in the foot, Mackenzie Eaglen writes, Congress must first look in the mirror and admit it has a problem. Only then may Congress even begin to reverse the decline in American hard power capabilities. By giving the Pentagon leeway to pursue necessary reform, Congress will help preserve both a professional force and military muscle.

State of the Union

Millions of Americans watched President Barack Obamas State of the Union address, but the speech had no appreciable impact on his depressed poll numbers, according to tracking polls from Gallup and Rasmussen Reports. President Obama deserves tremendous praise for closing his State of the Union address with an extended tribute to Army Sergeant First Class Cory Remsburg. But David Adesnik argues in a piece for The Daily Caller that the presidents tribute took place within a moral and intellectual vacuum: The president sen t this brave young man to war, but refuses to take responsibility for doing so. And he refuses to explain to the American public why the war we must win has become an afterthought. In case you missed it, former presidential speechwriter Marc Thiessen held an event at AEI last Tuesday that offered a peek behind the curtain of the State of the Union address. Click here for full video.

Best of Blogs
Marc Thiessen brings you the best of what AEI's foreign and defense policy scholars are reading this week: David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt at The New York Times write, " Afghanistan exit is seen as peril to C.I.A. drone mission" Eli Lake at The Daily Beast exposes "Obamas War on Terror Muddle"

Edward Lucas in Politico Magazine writes, "Snow job: it's time to blow the whistle on Edward Snowden" Evan Moore at US News & World Report reveals, "Less is less in foreign policy" Fred Hiatt at The Washington Post writes, "Rocky waters between China and Japan could buffet America" Shannon Tiezzi at The Diplomat asks, "Has Obama abandoned the pivot to Asia?" Andrew Wood at The American Interest discusses "Putins karma" David Schenker at The Weekly Standard writes, "Syria cheats" Ilan Berman in USA Today weighs in on "Obama's Foreign Policy Fail" Jonathan Tobin at Commentary Magazine discusses "The difference between Iran and the USSR"
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