0

5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1980 1980
1981 1981
1982 1982
1983 1983
1984 1984
1985 1985
1986 1986
1987 1987
1988 1988
1989 1989
1990 1990
1991 1991

Ave Weeks Unemployed

1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
(Thousands)

1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998

Unemployment length
1999 1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
Unemployed: 27 Weeks and Over

2002 2002
2003 2003
2004

Median Weeks Unemployed

2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
Kettle1
 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%

-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
1980
1980
1981 1981
1982 1982
1983 1983
1984 1984
1985 1985
1986 1986
1987 1987
1988 1988
1989 1989
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994

YOY % ∆
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
Unemployed: 27 Weeks and Over

2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
% of Unemployed for Greater Than 27 Weeks

2005 2005
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
Kettle1
 Kettle1

Assumption and Data Sources:

The 2008 employment projection was based on a 40/60 split between the growth phase and the recovery phase as detailed in the table
below. The historical trend tends towards a 60/40 split, but given the leveraged based nature of this recession I felt a 40/60 split was
more likely to be representative.

Duration High Decline Growth Phase Recovery

Recession
(L) Point (H) (D) (H/L) Phase (D/L)
(Months)
1944 28 16 10 57.1% 35.7%
1949 16 10 6 62.5% 37.5%
1953 15 9 6 60.0% 40.0%
1957 16 8 8 50.0% 50.0%
1960 10 6 4 60.0% 40.0%
1970 9 3 6 33.3% 66.7%
1974 14 8 6 57.1% 42.9%
1980 5 3 2 60.0% 40.0%
1981 20 12 8 60.0% 40.0%
1990 17 6 11 35.3% 64.7%
2001 29 9 20 31.0% 69.0%

BLS Data: http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm

2008p(1) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of july 2009
2008p(2) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of Dec 2009
2008p(3) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of June 2010
 Kettle1

Total Non-Farm
Non Employment
Months YOY % ∆ for the past 6 recessions
0.0%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
-0.5%

-1.0%

-1.5%

-2.0%

-2.5%

-3.0%

-3.5%

-4.0%

-4.5%

1970 1974 1981 1990 2001 2008 2008p(1)

 Kettle1

2008 Recession
YOY % ∆ Total Non-Farm Employment
0.00%

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13
Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13
-0.50%

-1.00%

-1.50%

-2.00%

-2.50%

-3.00%

-3.50%

-4.00%

-4.50%

-5.00%

2008 2008p(1) 2008p(2) 2008p(3)

 Kettle1

2008 Recession
Cumulative jobs lost, Total Non
Non-Farm Employment
20,000,000

18,000,000

16,000,000

14,000,000

12,000,000

10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000

0
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13
Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13
2008 2008p(1) 2008p(2) 2008p(3)
 Kettle1

U6 Vs Total Non
Non-Farm Employment
YOY % ∆ for each
80%
U6/U3 are being heavily manipulated. As of April
Total Non Farm Employment (TNF) and the U
series diverged. As of April 09, the rate or U6/U3
60%
growth decreased, while the rate of job losses in
TNF continued to accelerate .

Real U3 is closer to 12% and real U6 is closer to

40%
20% at the moment

20%

0%
Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09
-20%

-40%

-60%

Seasonally Adjusted U6 YOY % D Seasonally Adjusted total NON Farm Employment YOY % D (Scaled 10X)