RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS

1. INTRODUCTION
Reliability prediction is the combination o the creation o a proper reliability model to!ether "ith estimatin! #and $%sti yin!& the inp%t parameters or this model #li'e ail%re rates or a partic%lar ail%re mode or e(ent and the mean time to repair the system or a partic%lar ail%re& and inally to pro(ide a system #or part& le(el estimate or the o%tp%t reliability parameters #system a(ailability or a partic%lar %nctional ail%re re)%ency&* To per orm a proper )%antitati(e reliability prediction or systems may be di ic%lt and may be (ery e+pensi(e i done by testin!* On part le(el, res%lts can be obtained o ten "ith hi!her con idence as many samples mi!ht be %sed or the a(ailable testin! inancial b%d!et, ho"e(er %n ort%nately these tests mi!ht lac' (alidity on system le(el d%e to the ass%mptions that had to be made or part le(el testin!* These a%thors ar!%e that it cannot be emphasi-ed eno%!h that testin! or reliability sho%ld be done to create ail%res in the irst place, learn rom them and to impro(e the system . part* The !eneral concl%sion is dra"n that an acc%rate and an absol%te prediction / by ield data comparison or testin! / o reliability is in most cases not possible* An e+ception mi!ht be ail%res d%e to "ear0o%t problems li'e ati!%e ail%res* In the desi!n and de(elopment o a ne" prod%ct, the desi!n and reliability en!ineers, may not ha(e a(ailable ield data #reliability per ormance data&, d%e to the simple act that the system has not been ielded* In this case the reliability en!ineer m%st %se alternati(e methods to determine the reliability o the proposed system* Early in the concept phase, "ith a minim%m depth o 'no"led!e o the proposed system, a hi!h le(el %nderstandin! o the system co%ld be determined* Reliability and 1aintainability !reatly in l%ence the li e0cycle cost o comple+ systems* The more reliable and the more maintainable the prod%ct is, the lo"er its li e0cycle cost "ill be* A Portion o the research in Reliability and 1aintainability #R21& addresses the importance o acc%rately )%anti yin! the li e0cycle cost o a prod%ct and s%bse)%ently lo"erin! that cost* 3o"e(er, most R21 research in this area has not attempted to %tili-e R21 analysis as a desi!n tool* The accepted R21 analysis methods are %sed or the e(al%ation o e+istin! prod%cts based on test data retrie(ed rom the prod%ct*

Dept o 1echanical En!ineerin!, S4CE, 1ysore Pa g e 5

RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS

2. RELIABILITY PREDICTION
Reliability prediction describes the process %sed to estimate the constant ail%re rate d%rin! the %se %l li e o a prod%ct* This ho"e(er is not possible beca%se predictions ass%me that, The desi!n is per ect, the stresses 'no"n, e(erythin! is "ithin ratin!s at all times, so that only random ail%res occ%r E(ery ail%re o e(ery part "ill ca%se the e)%ipment to ail* The database is (alid These ass%mptions are sometimes "ron!* The desi!n can be less than per ect, not e(ery ail%re o e(ery part "ill ca%se the e)%ipment to ail, and the database is li'ely to be at least 56 years o%t0o 0 date* 3o"e(er, none o this matters m%ch, i the predictions are %sed to compare di erent topolo!ies or approaches rather than to establish an absol%te i!%re or reliability* This is "hat predictions "ere ori!inally desi!ned or* Some prediction man%als allo" the s%bstit%tion o %se o (endor reliability data "here s%ch data is 'no"n instead o the recommended database data* S%ch data is (ery dependant on the en(ironment %nder "hich it "as meas%red and so, predictions based on s%ch data co%ld no lon!er be depended on or comparison p%rposes* The reliability analyses can be %sed to de ine the )%antitati(e parameters or an item, e)%ipment or a complete system, and may be e+pressed in n%mber o ail%res in a !i(en set period o time, set n%mber o cycles or set n%mber o operations, s%ch as ro%nds ired rom a small caliber !%n, etc* A common e+pression %sed to de ine an item7s reliability is its 1ean0Time0Bet"een08ail%re, commonly 'no"n as its 1TB8* Once this i!%re is 'no"n it can be %sed to determine the reliability o an item in terms o a probability o s%ccess or ail%re, o(er a !i(en operatin! period* The ollo"in! acti(ities are co(ered or the )%antitati(e reliability analysis9 Reliability Analysis #methods& Reliability Probability Reliability Bloc' Dia!rams #1odelin!& Reliability Analysis #1ethods& There are methods a(ailable or determinin! the reliability o an item #this co%ld be a piece part to a complete system& and are9 Reliability Prediction9 This is the process %sed to determine the 1TB8 o an item* This is achie(ed by per ormin! a prediction analysis* Dept o 1echanical En!ineerin!, S4CE, 1ysore Pa g e :

RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS Similarity9 This method is %sed to determine "hat the reliability o a ne" prod%ct "ill be based %pon the ;'no"n; reliability o an e+istin! prod%ct "ith similar attrib%tes* These attrib%tes can be the type o technolo!y %sed, di!ital circ%itry, comple+ity o components and also comparable operatin! en(ironments and scenarios* 8ield Data9 This is the res%lt o determinin! the reliability o a prod%ct based %pon its operational per ormance in the ield* Normally an or!ani-ation "o%ld establish a process desi!ned to collect ielded data* The 1TB8 "ill be determined by di(idin! the total c%m%lati(e operation ho%rs or all ielded prod%cts by the n%mber o ail%re occ%rrences*

2.1 The Role of Reliability Predictio

Reliability Prediction has many roles in the reliability en!ineerin! process* The impact o proposed desi!n chan!es on reliability is determined by comparin! the reliability predictions o the e+istin! and proposed desi!ns* The ability o the desi!n to maintain an acceptable reliability le(el %nder en(ironmental e+tremes can be accessed thro%!h reliability predictions* Predictions can be %sed to e(al%ate the need or en(ironmental control systems* The e ects o comple+ity on the probability o mission s%ccess can be e(al%ated by per ormin! a reliability prediction analysis* Res%lts rom the analysis may determine a need or red%ndant systems, bac'0%p systems, s%bsystems, assemblies, or component parts*

Dept o 1echanical En!ineerin!, S4CE, 1ysore Pa g e <

RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS

!. RELIABILITY ANALY"I" #ET$OD"

Reliability predictions are cond%cted d%rin! the concept and de inition phase, the desi!n and de(elopment phase and the operation and maintenance phase, at (ario%s system le(els and de!rees o detail, in order to e(al%ate, determine and impro(e the dependability meas%res o an item* S%ccess %l reliability prediction !enerally re)%ires de(elopin! a reliability model o the system considerin! its str%ct%re* The le(el o detail o the model "ill depend on the le(el o desi!n detail a(ailable at the time* Se(eral prediction methods are a(ailable dependin! on the problem The di erent reliability analysis methods are as ollo"s9 System 1odelin! Predict 1TB8 Predict 1TB1A Predict 1TB=R

!.1 "y%te& #odelli '

Some ass%mptions m%st be made %p ront to simpli y the analysis method* 8irst, all components are ass%med to be replaceable on the maintenance line and that maintenance personnel ha(e all the necessary tools and trainin! to per orm the remo(al* Second, only one component ail%re is considered to ha(e occ%rred at any point in time, no m%ltiple component ail%res are considered* Third, no passi(e ail%res or ail%res "itho%t indication are considered, and o%rth, no indicator ail%res are considered* The system modelin! phase "ill con(ert the 8EA o the system into %sable in ormation or the analysis* The 8EA method contains n%mero%s amo%nts o in ormation that is not %tili-ed by this analysis method* >hat m%st be deri(ed rom the 8EA is the type o ail%res that each component can ha(e and "hat ail%re indications are present "hen that type o ail%re has occ%rred*

!.2 Predicti ' #ea Ti&e Bet(ee )ail*re% +#TB),

The ob$ecti(e o this analysis method is to s%pply estimated 1TB8 data or the system components "itho%t ha(in! historical or test data* Traditionally, component ail%re rates are determined either rom the %nderlyin! physics or rom historical data* In the concept%al desi!n phase o a prod%ct, historical or test data is typically not a(ailable and the desi!n may not be o eno%!h detail to per orm an analytical ail%re analysis* To prod%ce a ro%!h estimate o ail%re rates or components in a system, "e propose e+trapolation rom the 'no"n ail%re rate data or one

Dept o 1echanical En!ineerin!, S4CE, 1ysore Pa g e ?

RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS component* By %tili-in! en!ineerin! $%d!ment and common ail%re patterns, estimated 1TB8 data can be !enerated (ery early in the desi!n o a prod%ct* 1ean time bet"een ail%res #1TB8& is a basic meas%re o reliability or repairable items* 1TB8 can be described as the time passed be ore a component, assembly, or system ails, %nder the condition o a constant ail%re rate* Another "ay o statin! 1TB8 is the e+pected (al%e o time bet"een t"o consec%ti(e ail%res, or repairable systems* It is a commonly %sed (ariable in reliability and maintainability analyses* 1TB8 can be calc%lated as the in(erse o the ail%re rate, @, or constant ail%re rate systems* 8or e+ample, or a component "ith a ail%re rate o : ail%res per million ho%rs, the 1TB8 "o%ld be the in(erse o that ail%re rate @*

!.! Predicti ' #ea Ti&e Bet(ee #ai te a ce Actio %

8or each %ni)%e ail%re indication, there is a dia!nostic process that m%st be per ormed by the maintenance personnel* The de(eloped method attempts to sim%late that dia!nostic process and yields a maintenance rate or all the possible components or that ail%re indication* The method that is presented m%st be per ormed or each di erent ail%re indication to ind the o(erall maintenance rates, and con(ersely the 1TB1A7s, or each component* The main modi ications to this method are the incl%sion o the probabilities that a component ailed in a partic%lar mode to ca%se a partic%lar ail%re indication* This data "as de(eloped in the system modelin! phase* Also, the end res%lt o the method %tili-ed here is a prediction o 1TB1A data, "hile >on! attempted to sol(e directly or cost* The irst step inds the probability that a partic%lar ail%re indication "ill occ%r* The ne+t step de(elops an optim%m chec'in! order to dia!nose system components and the chec'in! order is %tili-ed alon! "ith ail%re data to determine the probabilities that a partic%lar component "ill be the ca%se o a ail%re indication* The inal step is to determine the 1aintenance Rate or each component per indication, "hich is a %nction o the probability o the indication occ%rrin! m%ltiplied by the probabilities that the pre(io%s chec'ed components in the dia!nostic process ha(e not ailed*

!.- PREDICTIN. #EAN TI#E BET/EEN UN"C$EDULED RE#O0AL

The phase to predict the 1TB=R7s is a three step process* The irst step in this phase i!%res the $%sti ied 1TB=R or each component, "hich is e)%i(alent to its 1TB8* The second step in this phase inds the %n$%sti ied 1TB=R or each component* The %n$%sti ied 1TB=R is o%nd or each Dept o 1echanical En!ineerin!, S4CE, 1ysore Pa g e 6

RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS component in each di erent ail%re mode based on the 1TB87s o other components and the Line and Shop Labor 3o%rs per Remo(al #LL3PR and SL3PR&* All the %n$%sti ied 1TB=R7s or each component are combined to !et a total %n$%sti ied 1TB=R* The third step in this phase %ses the $%sti ied and %n$%sti ied components o the 1TB=R to !i(e a total 1TB=R or each component in the system*

Dept o 1echanical En!ineerin!, S4CE, 1ysore Pa g e A

RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS

-. PROBLE#" 1 "OLUTION"

Dept o 1echanical En!ineerin!, S4CE, 1ysore Pa g e B

RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS

2. A""U#PTION" AND LI#ITATION"

8ail%re rate predictions are based on the ollo"in! ass%mptions9 The prediction model %ses a simple reliability series system o all components, in other "ords, a ail%re o any component is ass%med to lead to a system ail%re* Component ail%re rates needed or the prediction are ass%med to be constant or the time period considered* This is 'no"n to be realistic or electronic components a ter b%rn0in Component ail%res are independent* No distinction is made bet"een complete ail%res and dri t ail%res Components are a%ltless and are %sed "ithin their speci ications* Desi!n and man% act%rin! process o the item %nder consideration are a%ltless* Process "ea'nesses ha(e been eliminated, or i not, screened by b%rn0in* Limitations o ail%re rate predictions are9 Pro(ide only in ormation "hether reliability !oals can be reached* Res%lts are dependent on the tr%st"orthiness o ail%re rate data* The ass%mption o constant component ail%re rates may not al"ays be tr%e* In s%ch cases this method can lead to pessimistic res%lts* 8ail%re rate data may not e+ist or ne" component types* In !eneral red%ndancies cannot be modeled* Other stresses as considered may predominate and in l%ence the reliability* Improper desi!n and process "ea'nesses can ca%se ma$or de(iations*

Dept o 1echanical En!ineerin!, S4CE, 1ysore Pa g e C

RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS

3. APPLICATION"
8ail%re rate predictions are %se %l or se(eral important acti(ities in the desi!n phase o electronic e)%ipment in addition to many other important proced%res to ens%re reliability* E+amples o these acti(ities are9 To assess "hether reliability !oals can be reached, To identi y potential desi!n "ea'nesses, To compare alternati(e desi!ns, To e(al%ate desi!ns and to analy-e li e0cycle costs, To pro(ide data or system reliability and a(ailability analysis, To plan lo!istic s%pport strate!ies, To establish ob$ecti(es or reliability tests*

Dept o 1echanical En!ineerin!, S4CE, 1ysore Pa g e D

RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS

4. CONCLU"ION
This report has brie ly loo'ed at reliability en!ineerin!, its terms and orm%lae, and ho" to predict reliability and demonstrate it "ith tests and ield data* >e ha(e seen that reliability predictions are cond%cted d%rin! the concept and de inition phase, the desi!n and de(elopment phase and the operation and maintenance phase, in order to e(al%ate, determine and impro(e the dependability meas%res o an item* 8ail%re rate predictions are %se %l or se(eral important acti(ities in the desi!n and operation o electronic e)%ipment* These incl%de assessment o "hether reliability !oals can be reached, identi ication o potential desi!n "ea'nesses, e(al%ation o alternati(e desi!ns and li e0cycle costs, the pro(ision o data or system reliability and a(ailability analysis, lo!istic s%pport strate!y plannin! and to establish ob$ecti(es or reliability tests*

Dept o 1echanical En!ineerin!, S4CE, 1ysore Pa g e 5E