Perception of flood risk in the Danube Delta / Romania

Abstract 1. Introduction River deltas have represented cradles of civilizations and they are, upto today, favoured areals for the development of human habitats, as a result of their high productivity, biodiversity and favourable economical conditions for river transport. At the same time, they represent areals with high vulnerability to environmental changes, being extremely susceptible to natural disasters, out of which especially to floods. The Danube Delta, with its 5 !" #m$ , is the largest ecosystem of the humid zones of %urope &'argesson, ())*+ ,ancelot et al., $""$- to reflect the environment.s condition at a local and regional level &through the parameters of li/uid and solid flow-, at the same time having to insure the water supply of the economy and related communities &fig.-. The Danube Delta lies between 01mpia 2ugeacului to the north and 3odi4ul Dobrogei, which limits it to the south and south5west, and it has evolved in coordination with a stability phase of the 2lac# 6ea.s level, inside a gulf 5$"" years ago, building itself up through the three arms of 6f. 7heorghe, 6ulina and 0hitila. 8ydrologically, the Danube Delta exists in a natural regime until (9 ". The networ# of main arms and bac#waters maintains its natural structure until the beginning of the ::th century, when the direction of the 6ulina arm is rectified to enable sea navigation. During the first half of the ::th century a series of canals are built, but especially after ()5" a massive pro;ect of building navigational canals begins, modifying thus the hydrographic networ# inside the Delta. 2etween ()!55$""* the average and maximum annual flows had a general tendency to rise, while the average monthly distribution of maximum water flow was large during the months of march to ;une. <mportant floods on the Danube happened in (9)5, ()$ , ()!$, ()*", ()*5, ()9(, ()99 and $"" . As a complex hydrological process, the flooding of the delta space is very important within the dynamics of the evolution of all the natural system.s components. The degree of flood capacity depending on the Danube waters. regime, sustains both the alluvial gathering processes &to the surface, at high levels, and liniary, at low levels-, and the water supply of the internal lacustrian depressions. Through their fre/uency, floods maintain the regeneration degree of the flowing water, insuring a normal evolution of both terrestrial and a/uatic ecosystems. =or human communities, this natural process is perceived as a ris# factor, entailing material damage, human victims and psychological stress. 2. Objective and methodolo !

3sychosocial investigations too# place between (*5$( ;uly $""* in the village of 6f. 7heorghe and (5(" august $""* in the city of Tulcea, consisting of a >face5to5face? application of a standardized form on a number of @$ items &annex -. A number of (!@ sub;ects have been investigated on the fieldA 9 from the town of 6f. 7heorgheB Tulcea county, $( sub;ects from the central area of Tulcea city, without flood ris#, and @ from the Tudor Cladimirescu districtB Tulcea &ma;or ris# area-, fig. and table. Table. 'ain demographic characteristics &percentages6ex m f Age &yearsmiddle5school

%ducation high5school civil serv ant

$( college

Dccupation
fisher men

$"5 @5

@ 5 5

over

wor#5at5home

others

retired

Dwnership status owner tenant

5$,!

!*,

("

!,(

$5,)

!,*

$$,9

($,5

$",@

($,@

@9,!

!,)

)5,(

The sample has been randomly put together and is not representative for the population of the Delta with regard to age, sex distribution, education, income etc. At the same time, we cannot estimate the response of those who have refused to fill in the form. The sub;ects. attitude has been, in most cases, friendly, most of them showing interest in the issue presented. At a low percentage of sub;ects interviewed in the village of 6f. 7heorghe we encountered high susceptibility or even hostility as the refused the interview. This aspect should be interpreted from the perspective of the social tensions existing in the area since the declaration of the Danube Delta 2iosphere Reservation and restrictions imposed on fishing. The ob;ective of this study was focused on the a complex evaluation of flood ris# perception. The study has an explorational character, based on the hypothesis that there are common perceptions regarding the ris# factors, and the local inhabitants differ under the aspect of social vulnerability according to a series of demographical, socio5 economical and psychological variables. The building of the items of this form was made with help from a group of experts, through /ualitative methods &focus5group-. To chec# its validity, the initial /uestionnaire was applied to a pilot sample of (!@ persons, on the sub;ect of seismic ris# in 2ucharest, some of the /uestions having suffered slight modifications afterwards. Ta#ing into consideration the sub;ect.s complexity and the need to obtain a level of information as large and as diverse as possible, items were set to re/uest open answersA the indication of the largest considered danger for the household or the most difficult moment experienced in life lin#ed to a natural event, the behaviour in case of a disaster, the reaction in front of a negative scenario, the naming of a series of concrete measures during the diaster, the evaluation of personal attachment towards material goods or people. The rest of the items have been coded with answers on a ,i#ert scale of 5 levels &( being the lowest and 5 being the highest-. 3ro;ectional items @, ! and ), which evaluate the control place, scaled initially as negative, were reversed during processing in order to be aggregated.

The items detected cognitive elements, such as expectations &negative expectations regarding the person, household, psychological balance, health, and the alteration of family security or social relationships and lifestyle-, post5disastrual anticipations &degree of resilience- and evaluationsB;udgements &assignment of the natural disasters-, emotional aspects &the feeling of shame, of fear-, abilities &preparing against disaster- and behaviours &active or passive reporting+ strategies in case of future events, devised on the basis of experienced past events-. The level of resilience attributed, as an important variable for evaluating psycho5social vulnerability, was estimated on the basis of the type of support expected from entities such asA family, friends, government, local authorities etc., the evaluation of resources level and the orientating towards an external or internal control >locus? in case of a disaster &bibliography-. The research stages divided between descriptive processing of data, identifying common factors of perceptional ris# reporting through means of inferential analyses, evaluation of high psycho5social vulnerability categories and establishing a psychological profile of the individuals predisposed to display a strong unadaptative behaviour under the conditions of natural ris#sB floods. ". Results ".1. Descriptive anal!ses The interpretation of open5answers items shows that around exposed areals, susceptible to flood ris#, the most difficult experiences, with natural causes, are centered on these eventsA *(,5E of the participants from Tudor Cladimirescu district and !@,@E from the village of 6f. 7heorghe. 6ub;ects from districts not exposed to flood danger, in the central sector of Tulcea city, have appreciated in proportion of over 9"E that earth/ua#es are the largest natural danger for their households. Descriptive analyses show that most of the respondents. evaluations are placed on the middle level of the scale &averagely-A placing the blame for an eventual disaster on the authorities &item 9-, the tendency to become anxious during crysis situations &item (!-, the feeling that the ris# affects everyday life &item ( -, the probability of lifestyle alteration because of floods &item $(-, fear of the flood ris# &item $@-. %valuations set on the superior level of the scale &such as answers of the type >medium probability? or >high probability?- are recorded when reporting the ris# to their own person and personal propertiesA household damage in case of flood &item (5, ()-, physical and psychological health damage &item (* and (9, respectively-, affecting the family &item $"-. Dn a lower value seem to be scaled items that are centered on aspects of support, preparation &revolving around answers of the >low probability? type-A there is no general fear that floods would damage relationships with friends or a/uaintances &item $$-. 3ersonal preparation in case of a crysis has a low value, towards medium, showing that interviewed sub;ects are not adapted well enough for such cases &item $5a-, respondents don.t expect to be helped by many others in case of a flood &item $9-, recovering their goods being appreciated as not very probable &item @"-, and the locals lac#ing personal resources in case of crysis situations &item @(-. ".2. Raportarea psiholo ic# la risc

To psychologically detect the manner in which the interviewed persons report to the disaster of floods, a number of 9 items was introduced into the research. They areA item ( &the belief that the sub;ect is a luc#y person-, item @ &faith in destiny-, item ! &the imminence of danger regardless of personal effort-, items 5 and &the degree of influence that destiny has-, item * &the belief that misfortunes are punishment for personal actions-, item 9 &pro;ecting disasters as authorities. fault- and item ) &the imminence of disasters in a person.s life, regardless of personal effot-. Fegatively scaled items were initially reversed &items @, ! and )-. The clusters analysis show an initial association between items 5 and referring to the degree of influence upon destiny through personal effort &fig.-. Dn a different level, they form a cluster with items ( and ) &reversed-, which we could psychologically call the internal place of control &in the sense of Rotter.s conception, () -. During subse/uent processing we resolved to aggregate the values of each person for these items, high scores being associated with an internal control of the events. =rom a psychological point of view, people of this type are characterised by the fact that they perceive ade/uate solving of ma;or events in their lives as depending, mostly, on themselves. 3laced in the case of a negative scenario such as the loss of their entire fortune as conse/uence of a catastrophic flood, persons with a high degree of internal control gave the smallest number of fatalistic answers &around E- and were constantly oriented towards not re/uiring support, mentioning that they are trying to recover by starting all over again in the same place. <n turn, the reversed items @ and ! form a cluster, which evolves together with items * and 9 to what we may call a factor of external place of control &in the sense of Rotter.s conception, () -. <n later processing, we also resolved to aggregate the values of each person for these items, higher scores being associated with an external control of events. 3sychologically, people of this type are characterized by the fact the they perceive solving negative events in their lives as depending on other instances &luc#, destiny, authorities and so on-.
The distance of combination &in clusters0 Fum 5 10 15 20 25 +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 4 5 2 8 1 3 6 7

item5 item6 item1 item9_r item3_r item4_r item7 item8

=ig. The dendrogram of medium inter5group connections <n order to detect the perception on floods in the case of the interviewed persons and their vulnerability level with conse/uences on a physical, psychological and social level, a

number of ( items was introduced in the research, analysed based on carrying out an explorational factorial analysis &table-. Table. <tems selected to analyze the perception
Fr. item (", ((, ($ (@ (! (5, () ( (* (9 $" $( $$ $@ $! $* <tem content refers to the person.s state in front of a destiny.s challenge &tiredness, comparative reporting to the others, degree of unrestpesimistic or optimistic attitude in life tendency to panic in crysis situations appreciating how the household might be affected in case of disaster the feeling that flood ris# affects life /uality appreciating the degree of damage to personal health in case of a flood estimating the level of damage to psychological balance the degree of damage upon their family in case of a flood probability of changing their lifestyle because of the floods altering relationships with friends, a/uaintances, in case of such a disaster fear of the imminence of such a scenario &the ris# of floodthe level of expectation of such an event the degree of mental exhaustion in such a scenario

The data atest the existence of common factors of perceiving the ris# of flood, the value of the Gaiser5'eyer5Dl#in index &",9!- being statistically acceptable &3opa, $""!, 6ava, $""!-. 'oreover, the level of the 2artlett sphericity test &($"-H 9@!,@@@, sig.H ",""(;ustifies the application of a factorial reduction procedure. The items were sub;ected to a factorial analysis &03A, Carimax-, and only those with strong enough saturations on certain groupings were #ept. <n figure 5 factors were identified, based on the eigen I ( criterium, and their saturation mode is displayed in table.
=ig.. 6electing the significant factors

Table. 6aturation mode of the 5 factors

Rotated 0omponent 'atrix&a0omponent ( item$" item() item(* item(9 item$( item$@ item( item(5 item $*Jr item$$ .9!) .*)* .*9( .**( .*$* .*"" . ) . )" 5.*!" .*(9 $ @ ! 5

item(" item($ item(! item(@ item(( item $!

.5)( .*"( . $ .95! .9$@ .59@

%xtraction 'ethodA 3rincipal 0omponent Analysis. Rotation 'ethodA Carimax with Gaiser Formalization. a Rotation converged in (" iterations.

=actor ( refers to cognitions &the estimated level of losses and conse/uent preoccupation towards the imminence of such a threat-. <t explains over 5"E of the total variance of the indicator variables and, concordant with the items in which it is saturated, we could call it the factor of personal perceived vulnerability. =actor $ is an emotional type factor, which implies the energetic consume needed in stressful situations and the need for relational support, called the factor of relational vulnerability. The persons who scored high on this factor could be characterized by an excessive consumption of energetic resources in case of disasters. =actor @ is a psychological factor which identifies neurotical manifestations in case of stress and a bad behavioural adaptation to the demands of extreme events, and so being a factor of behavioural vulnerability. =actor ! shows the general direction in life, and it is saturated in only one variable, while =actor 5 proves that those who have the experience of having successfully overcome traumatic situations in the past will not pro;ect such events in the future. The factor was called perceived imminence of disasters. During subse/uent processing we resolved to aggregate the scores of these items which saturate different factors. 8igh scores of each factor means that the person confronted with the imminence of a disaster tends towards an increase of the indentified vulnerabilities and a generalization of his reactions on a physical, mental, socially narrow &family- and socially extended &friendsBa/uaintances- level at the same time. ".". $orrelational studies This section focuses on lin#ing the place of control with the vulnerability factors resulted from the factorial analysis and the manner of correlating the latter with the socio5 economical and demographical variables. =rom the correlational analysis of the place of control and the factors synthesizing the vulnerability to the danger of floods, results coefficients with significant, but small values. The internal place of control associates significantly5negative with the perceived personal vulnerability &=(-, with the relationship vulnerability &=$- and with the imminence of disasters &=5-. The correlation shows that the interviewed sub;ects who rely on their personal force to overcome crysis situations have a general low vulnerability level and the tendency to not invest much energy in negative scenarios, which they pro;ect in a future as far as possible. The positive 0hi5s/uare test indicates a general level of anxiety significantly low in case of those with conspicuous orientation towards an internal place of control &0hi5s/uare &9-H$*, , pK",""(-. At the same time, the correlation significantly5positive between the internal place of control and the appreciation of the degree of behavioural correctness in case of a flood, shows the active orientation of this type of person in the situation of a disaster &r H ",@9+

sig. H ",""(-, fact confirmed also by expert literature &see 3art <, chapter @.!-. 3ersonal perceived vulnerability correlates positively with all the other vulnerability factors. The values. increase shows the tendency of these persons to develop unadaptative behaviour during ris# situations, with a generally higher energetic consumption and with a tendency to pro;ect such events in a closer future. Le may conclude that such sub;ects tend to develop a behavioural pattern characterized by a lower capacity of adaptative reaction. Table of correlation between factors
internal control locus
internal control locus &items 5, ,(,)-

Total =$ 5.$$9&MM."" (!@ .$@!&MM.""5 (!@

Total =@

Total =5 5.$$ &MM.""* (!@ .$!)&MM.""@ (!@

3earson 0orrelation 6ig. &$5tailedF 3earson 0orrelation 6ig. &$5tailedF

Total =(

5.$9)&MM.""" (!@

.$$)&MM."" (!@

MM significant correlation at pH"."( &bilateral-.

<n the second part of the analysis, the vulnerability factors mentioned were transformed into values of ran# orders and intercorrelated with socio5demographical variables, in order to observe possible tendencies of significant association to suggest patterns of behavioural specificity.
3rofessiona l activism &(5active, $5 passive5.@ *&MM.""" (@9 (5 tenant, $5 owner

=( ( 'asc, " =em Religiousness degree declaredA ( O low degree $ O medium degree @ O high degree Age correlation cof. 6ig. F correlation cof. 6ig. F correlation cof. 6ig. F Nears of fomal education (A cof. de corelatie 5.(9$&M."@" (!@ .$"$&M-

=$ 5.(*9& M."@! (!@

=@ 5.()$&M."$$ (!@ . $()&MM."") (!@

Type of support expected

Nears of formal education

<ncome . @"*&MM.""" ($5

5.$"9&M-

.$@*&MM-

."( (!@

."(* (@"

.""* ($) 5.@* &M M.""" ($5 . @5(&MM. ( &MM.""" (@9 5.$ (&MM.(*(&M."!( (!@ .$$(&M-

(5!, $A 559, @A )5($, !A(@5( , <ncomeA %uro, (A up to ("" %, $A (""5$"" %, @A $""5@"" %, !A @""5!"" %, 5A !""5 5"" %, A over 5""

6ig. F cof. de corelatie 6ig. .""5 F ($5 5.$5$&M M-

.""" ((@

.""@ ($5 5.5@)&MM-

."($ ($) 5.$(5&M ."( ($5

.""" ($"

M 6ignificant correlation at p H "."5 &bilateral-. MM 6ignificant correlation at p H "."( &bilateral-.

Results thus gained draw attention on the specificity of relating to the environment depending on the sex of the sub;ects and the importance of the personal level of resilience appreciated in the e/uation of the perceived vulnerability. These variables associate in patterns of lin#ing with the environment dynamics, in coordination with a constellation of expectations and associated mental constructs. The correlation values thus obtained draw attention on the tendency of the male sub;ects to associate an internal control of the events &r H ",$9+ sig. H ",""(, bilateral- and to display a lower lever of vulnerability &correlations significantly negative, but smaller-. 2etter confidence in personal strength can also be sustained by the fact that this category displays a larger professional activism, while being better remunerated, at the same time, which increases its degree of resilience compared to the female sex, still caught in bounds of dependency &even more as in isolated villages such as 6f. 7heorghe we tal# about an old population, mostly female-. =rom conversations with the locals it was always rendered evident the fact that widowed old women, even when they had a family, experienced a strong state of insecurity towards the environment and dependency.. These considerents are emphasized by the fact that from statistic analysis results a larger orientation towards an external place of control in case of female sub;ects. Results obtained from the application of a number of tests of significance confirm the differences between the two sexes which were identified in studies of ris# perception ta#en on an international level &7ustafson, ())9, see 3art <, 0hap. @.$-. 0oncordant with the sex of the sub;ects, the 'ann5Lhitney test shows that more women from the tested samples believe that floods are a danger for their household &P H $"(!,5", F( H 9, F$ H 5$, pK",5 bilateral-, can unstabilize social relationships &P H $$ @,"", F( H 9, F$ H 5$, pK","( bilateral-, and consider themselves less prepared to ta#e active stand during the event &PH (5)),"", F( H 9, F$ H 5$, pK","( bilateral-. The female sex generally displays a larger sensitivity to the presence of such a scenario in the everyday life &P H ()(",5", F( H 9, F$ H 5$, pK","5 bilateral-, anticipating in a larger extent that such events can affect their psychological balance &P H ()($,"", F( H 9, F$ H 5$, pK","( bilateral-. The most important in identifying the level of vulnerability is appreciated resilience. Lith respect to this, persons with a superior educational level have, averagely, larger incomes and are more active in professional life. The larger the income, the lower the stress level &r H 5",$@, pK","5-, and the locals experience a much more diminished threat of floods over their households &r H 5",!$, pK","(-, or in everyday life &r H 5",$9, pK","(-,

maintaining their psychological balance &r H 5",$ , pK","5- . <t is also interesting how, as the education level grows, the criticism level increases too, and people are more inclined to blame the authorities for the disasters &r H ",@*, pK","(-. The lower the education level, the stronger the belief that floods will leave a ma;or mar# on their general lifestyle &r H 5",(9, pK","5- and the recovery of losses will be more difficult &r H ",@*, pK","(-. The increase of the number of people in the household generates a larger responsibility being attributed to the local authorities in case of an eventual disaster &r H ",(9, pK","5and strenghtens the fear perceived concerning the security of the family &r H ",(9, pK","5-. Age is significantly5negative associated with monthly income, in the sense that older sub;ects have, averagely, a smaller income compared to younger persons. Aging is associated significantly5positive with retirement from professionally5active life. =rom the correlation of demographical variables with the items of the /uestionnaire &the 6pearman test, bilateral- results that older population displays a larger relationship vulnerability, through the fact that this category is more dependent on other people.s support and will be strongly affected in the case of losing it &r H ",(9, pK"."5-.

The relatively low values of these correlations should be explained in the context of a low economical level of the tested populations.

The degree of religiousness shows the tendency of the sub;ect to orient himself to an external place of control towards events, correlating significantly5positive with the factors of personal vulnerability &=(- and with a passive, unadaptative behaviour in case of danger &=@-. 0oncerning the expected help, the hopes of those investigated, revealed in the answers given, are presented O ordered by ran# O according to this table.
Average ran# @,* $,!9 $,(* (, "

family friends local authorities government

The ran# differences thus illustrated are significant from a statistical point of view &=riedman chi5s/uare H * ,$9+ df H !$+ pK",""(-. The correlations applied concerning the perception of support show that, as the educational level and income grow, the locals expect a lower support from the family &r H 5",$), pK","(-, friends &r H 5",@5, pK","(-, local authorities &r H 5",@", pK","( and r H 5".$(, pK","(-, while their expectations from the government increase &r H ",$@, pK","5
Q

and r H ",@9, pK","(- as well as from other organizations &rH",@9, pK","( and r H ".@5, pK","(-. 0oncerning the type of support expected, sub;ects have mentioned more optionsA financial &(!E-, labour help &(), E-, moral &*E-, material goods &$5,)E-, othersA including food, shelter etc. &$!,5E-. Around )E did not answer this item. The sub;ects who expect financial and material support are li#ely to place more responsibility on the authorities in case of a disaster &0hi5s/uare &!-H!,@$, pK","(- and anticipate a decrease in the number of persons who will offer support &0hi5s/uare &!-H(!,"), pK","(-. Distinctly, the sub;ects who expect moral support rely mostly on their family &0hi5s/uare &!-H$5,(*, pK","(- and, next to those who expect help in the form of labour or mixed support, appreciate that floods will have a greater impact on inter5human relationships &0hi5s/uare &!-H),"*, pK","5-. Although the samples regarding the ownership title are very unbalanced &!,)E tenants+ )5,(E owners-, the 'ann5Lhitney test showed that owners anticipate to recover more of the losses that happened during the floods &P H $99, F( H (@ , F$ H *, pK","5 bilateral-. The analysis of correlations between independent variables was ran to identify any possible tendencies of significant association relating to the ris# of floods. &tableTable. 0orellations between variables &6pearman correlationsitems 9 (! .()M (5 .@*MM
Q

(!

(5

(*

(9

()

$"

$(

$$

$5

$9

As people declare themselves more religious, there is a slight increase in the tendencies to give a larger responsibility to authorities &r H ",(*, pK","5-, to consider the possibility of floods as a ma;or factor of uneasiness in everyday life &r H ",(), pK","5-, which can affect health &r H ",(), pK","5-, psychological balance &r H ",( , pK","5-, family safety &r H ",$@, pK","(-. These persons also tend to display a negative orientation concerning the expectancy of recovering possible losses &r H 5",(), pK","5-. The religiousness degree correlates negatively with the trust in family support, expectations increase for help from supreme authorities more distantly related such as the government &r H ",$@, pK"."5-, or other organizations &r H 5",$5, pK","(-.

<temsA item 9A blaming the authorities for an eventual disaster, item (!A tendency to panic in crysis situations, item ( A the feeling that ris# affects everyday life, item (*A health damage, item (9A damage to psychological balance, items (5, ()A appreciating damage to household in case of flood, item $"A family damage, item $(A probability of lifestyle alteration because of flood, item $$A alteration of relationship with friends, a/uaintances, in case of a disaster item $@A fear of the ris# of flood, item $5A personal capacity and preparation in case of flood, item $9A lac# of trust in support, item @"A to what extent can losses be recovered, itemul @(A existence of personal resources in crysis situation.

( (* (9 () $" $( $$ $@ $5 $9 @" @(

.$ MM

.$@MM .$)MM

.$ MM

.@9MM .@(MM

.(*M

.$*MM

. %&'' . (&'' . %"'' . (&'' . *&'' . @9MM . *,''

.%)'' .*+'' .%)'' .*+'' .+1'' .*1'' .**'' .%,'' .*&'' .@9MM .%('' .(+'' .%&'' . *1'' . ()MM .*"'' .%2'' .%+'' .(,'' . *)'' 5.(9MM

.$!MM

.$(MM 5.$$M M 5.$5M M

. .$ MM ()'' 5.(9MM .(9M 5.(9M .$$MM

5.$)MM 5.$9M M

MM significant correlations at step pK ",""(+ bilateral M significant correlations at step pK ","5+ bilateral

The results of correlational analyses between the independent variables are in coordination with observations made upon applying the procedures previously presented. 6trong correlations appear between the perceived level of personal damage &health, psychological balance, everyday life, family, household- and the fear that such an even could happen. =ear results from losing control during the events ta#ing place. 3eople develop a higher sensitivity when their degree of involvement in a dangerous scenario increases, and the presence of negative thoughts affects the /uality of life. 3sychological vulnerabilization in front of danger is also emphasized by the absence of resources and, therefore, by lower resilience capability. Lhen self confidence drops, the individual.s orientation towards exterior help and support increases. Lhen these needs are not fulfilled by society, fear becomes a constant condition, which is also pro;ected upon the natural environment. The lac# of resources, implying low resilience, and the lac# of faith in support &through the scenario of relationships deteriorating during cysis situations-, strengthens unadaptative behaviour. 6uch people display a low adaptative level and are most susceptible to sever post5disaster traumas, demanding special attention &bibliography-. <f social support and the trust in authorites increases, the perceived or unconscious level of stress these people experience would drop. ,owering the stress levels would lead to an emotional balancing, reflected into a better general health condition. This is the reason why local authorities and the image they manage to build for themselves in a community are of ma;or importance.

<n case of a disaster, sub;ects oriented towards external support are the most vulnerable segment of the population, characterized by non5action. <n the post5disaster stage their resilience level will be low, while maintaining their lac# of intiative and orientation for support from society. The expected support is larger as the recovery capacity is perceived as smaller and personal resources are few. The chi5s/uare test shows the sub;ects who anticipate they would need material support expect less help from the family, and therefore , economically spea#ing, it is a modest segment of the population &0hi5s/uare &!-H$5,(*, pK","(-, expecting material support from local authorities &0hi5s/uare &!-H$(,@ , pK","(-. The largest help expectations from the government belong to sub;ects who thin# they will need most material help &0hi5 s/uare &!-H((,55, pK","5-. ".(. Anal!ses re ionall! differentiated Personal vulnerability &=(- has been regionally researched on the three sample categoriesA the village of 6f. 7heorghe, the Tudor Cladimirescu district and Tulcea city, by applying the unifactorial AFDCA procedure. The analysis of unifactorial variance showed a significant difference between the means of the three samples, representing personal vulnerability perceived in the three areals, localized differently according to the imminence of flood danger &unifactorial AFDCA, =&$, (!"- H ((,)9+ p H ",""(-. 6ub;ects from the Tudor Cladimirescu district &' H @(, , 6D H - feel the most vulnerable compared to those in 6f. 7heorghe village &' H $ , 6D H ,!- and locals from the centre of Tulcea &' H $@, 6D H ),$-. The 3ost 8oc Tests table displays comparisons between the means of the three groups, ta#en two by two &table -. <t can be noticed that the perceived vulnerability between the sub;ects interviewed in what we called Tulcea city and 6f. 7heorghe village don.t differ significantly &p H ",!@-, while the sample from the Tulcea district called Tudor Cladimirescu stands out significantly both from the rest of the city &p H ",""$-, and compared to 6f 7heorghe village &p H ",""(-. Table . 3ost 8oc Tests O 'ultiple comparisons &perceived vulnerabilityDependent variableA =( &<- ( tulcea, $ 6f. 7h., @ TCladimirescu &R- ( tulcea, $ 6f. 7h., @ TCladimirescu Tamhane Tulcea 6fantu Tudor Cladimirescu 6fantu Tulcea Tudor Cladimirescu Tudor Tulcea Cladimirescu 6fantu M significance level ","5. Diff. 2etween means &<5R5$.)$!)5 5 9.@9!!$&M$.)$!)5 5 5.!5)!*&M9.@9!!$&M5.!5)!*&M6td. %rror $.")*!9 $.$$*9" $.")*!9 (.$@(59 $.$$*9" (.$@(59 )5E trust interval inf.limit sup. limit 59.$*$@ $.!$$! 5(@.))!* 5$.!$$! 59.!*59 $.**!( $.!!@( 5$.**!( 9.$*$@ 5$.!!@( (@.))!* 9.!*59

6ig. .!@9 .""$ .!@9 .""" .""$ ."""

The application of the unifactorial AFDCA test to emphasize the internal control place on the three areals also shows significant differences between the means of the three samples &unifactorial AFDCA, =&$, (!"- H @,5!+ p H ","@-. The sub;ects from Tudor Cladimirescu district &' H @(, , 6D H $,$- present an internal orientation of control stronger compared to those in 6f. 7heorghe &' H ((,5, 6D H $, - and the locals of Tulcea centre &' H (",!, 6D H $,5-. The 3ost 8oc Tests table displays comparisons of the three groups. means, ta#en two by two &table *-. Table *. 3ost 8oc Tests O 'ultiple comparisons &internal control placeDependant variableA internal control locus &<- ( tulcea, $ 6f. 7h., @ Tvladimirescu &R- ( tulcea, $ 6f. 7h., @ TCladimirescu 2onferroni Tulcea 6fantu Tudor Cladimirescu 6fantu Tulcea Tudor Cladimirescu Tudor Tulcea Cladimirescu 6fantu M significance level ","5. 'ean Difference &<5R5(.")()* 5 (.95)*!&M(.")()* 5.* *** (.95)*!&M.* *** 6td. %rror . (@)" . ))(" . (@)" .5(5(* . ))(" .5(5(* )5E trust interval inf. limit sup.limit 5$.5*)5 .@)5 5@.55@* 5.@)5 5$."( ( .( 59 5.!9"5 5.( 59 $.5*)5 .!9"5 @.55@* $."( (

6ig. .$@$ ."$ .$@$ .!(5 ."$ .!(5

8ow can the high perception of vulnerability be explained, even though O averagely5 the sample of the the Tudor Cladimirescu district tends towards an internal place of controlS 0ompared to the area in which they live, Tudor Cladimirescu &(5,!E-, 6f. 7heorghe & ",(E- and Tulcea city &$!,5E- respectively, statistics show that the locals from Tudor Cladimirescu district experience a much stronger fear of such calamities, compared to the sub;ects in the other two samples &0hi5s/uare &9- H !), , pK",""(-. This happens because the recent floods &$"" - are still present in people.s memories, and the defence dam was only erected on small areas, during the investigation. The other side of the Tulcea city does not stand the ris# of flooding, while the people in 6f 7heorghe feel protected by the dam which surround the village. 3robably this is also why the locals of 6f 7heorghe, as opposed to those in Tudor Cladimirescu, do not perceive the authorities as responsible for the disasters following eventual floods &0hi5s/uare &9- H !), pK",""(-. The sub;ects interviewed in the Tudor Cladimirescu district live with the fear of an imminent distruction of their households should a flood happen &0hi5s/uare &9- H 5",$, pK",""(-, of damage to personal health &0hi5s/uare &9- H (5,9, pK","!- and to family security &0hi5s/uare &9- H $$,$, pK",""!-, aspect which affects their daily life in a higher proportion than it does in the case of other settlements ta#en under investigation &0hi5 s/uare &9- H @!,!, pK",""(-. 'aintaining an organization of a traditional type in the village of 6f. 7heorghe and Tudor Cladimirescu offers a larger stability for the locals through their faith in family support, this #ind of suppot being less expected in urban areas &0hi5s/uare &$ - H )",9, pK",""(-. The support expected from friends &socially extended group- is also large in the village of 6f 7heorghe and the district of Tudor Cladimirescu, and lower in urban areas &0hi5s/uare

&$"- H 5 ,9, pK",""(-. 6ub;ects with less hope of recovering the losses are thos from 6f. 7heorghe &* E of those who answered they will recover a very small extent of their losses- . <n the context of sub;ecting these persons to an extreme scenarioA the loss of their entire fortune as a conse/uence of a flood, the chi5s/uare test shows a significant differentiation of the answers type for the three samples &0hi5s/uare & - H (*,(, pK","")-. The lowest share of fatalistic answers &(,!E- appears in the Tudor Cladimirescu district. ".%. Anal!sis of co nitive dissonance <n order to identify the cognitive dissonance &in the sense of =estinger.s theory-, we applied an analysis of the factor of personal vulnerability, to separate the manner of the grouping of values into classes. After the analysis of sumative numerical indicators, the following categories of appreciated personal vulnerability have been establishedA low &(*E-, medium &5@E- and high &@"E-. =or the analysis of cognitive dissonance the selected sample was the one characterized by high personal vulnerability, because of its high level of anxiety, which re/uired the search for tension5reducting mechanisms. The analysis of fre/uency has presented, for all the items, average values above @ &in the sphere of answers ranging from >medium extent? to >large?-, opposite from the the group of sub;ects with low personal vulnerability, where all the means had small values &>small extent? to >medium extent?-. Regarding the place of control, in the vulnerable sample the main orientation is towards an external place of control. The internal place of control has e/ual shares on the small and medium categories &around 5"E-, while for the group with low vulnerability, the internal place of control is present in a proportion of 5"E in the medium category and $"E in the large one. <n the case of the sample tested, the way to diminish negative tension created by cognitive dissonance is to reduce dissonant congnition through pro;ecting the perturbating event into a future as far as possible.. The possibility of a flood is appreciated, with a share of over "E, to ta#e place in >only a few years?. 8owever, in the case in which sub;ects are put in front of a catastrophic scenario, the dissonance is reduced through consonant conditions, which fit the category of optimistic response & "E-. This method for reducing dissonance matches the explicative model of avoiding dissonance developed by =estinger &()5*-. <n the tested conditions, sub;ects cannot avoind dissonance, diminishing its importance &pro;ecting the flood in a far future-. The method of reduction meets a strong resistance to change from the cognitions. part, especially since they refer to the physical environment. The possibility to modify them will ultimately depend on the resistance of the wea#est dissonant cognition. Lhen resistence is too important, such as in this situation where it is supported by the pressure of physical environment, the decrease of dissonance will be made by adding new, consonant cognitions. *. $onclusions =ollowing the analyses effected, the result is the imprinting on the human cognitive level of the instability characteristic to natural environment, to extent to which the dangerous event is perceived to affect the narrow individual space &health, family, household-. An

essential aspect in relating to the ris# event is the degree of control perceived. This varies depending on ob;ective aspects such as the level of resilience given by the amount of available resources and expected support, or psychological factors represented Omainly5 by the place of control. The application of the inferential statistics tests showed the fact that sub;ects who rely on personal forces to overcome critical situations &internal place of control- have a lower general vulnerability level and the tendency not to invest too much energy in negative scenarios, which they pro;ect into a far5off future. At the same time, their general level of anxiety is significantly smaller than the anxiety of those with a stronger orientation towards an external place of control. 3ersons with a higher degree of internal control, faced with a negative scenario such as the loss of their entire fortune due to flooding, gave the lowest number of fatalistic answers and constantly oriented themselves not to as# for support, mentioning that they are trying to recover through their own forces by starting all over again, in the same place. These sub;ects have a lower level of expecting post5disaster support,being the most active and having the most initiative during crysis events. Lhen self confidence drops, the individual.s orientation towards the exterior increases, expecting support and security. Lhen these needs are not fulfilled at a narrow social level &family- or extended &friends, a/uaintances, state institutions-, fear becomes a constant condition, which is also pro;ected upon the natural environment. The lac# of resources, implying low resilience, and the lac# of faith in support &through the scenario of relationships deteriorating during cysis situations-, strengthens unadaptative behaviour. <n the event of a disaster, the sub;ects with an accute internal control place display adaptative behaviour and a high level of resilience. 2y correlation with socio5 demographical variables, these sub;ects turn out to be mostly male, professionally active and better paid, also as a conse/uence of having a better educational level. These characteristics become stronger in the case of the poor populations which have been investigated, drawing attention towards discrepancies still existing between the two sexes at the level of the present romanian society.