The weekly briefing | 10 February 2014

Political and security risk updates

Africa: Muslim civilians flee entral !frican "epublic capital# Americas: $%&guerrilla leader takes lead in $l 'alvador presidential election# Asia and Pacific: ()ailand*s anti&government protestors seek to +in over farmers# Europe: ,iolent protests spread across Bosnia&-er.egovina# Middle East: 'audi citi.ens to face long prison sentences if found fig)ting in foreign conflicts# Polar regions: "ussia*s ambassador to t)e !rctic ouncil refutes claims of regional militarisation#

!frica
Muslim civilians flee Central African epublic capital ()ousands of Muslims are fleeing Bangui/ t)e capital of t)e entral !frican "epublic 0 !"1/ amid reports of public mutilations and c)eering )ristian cro+ds# !round 200 ve)icles/ guarded by soldiers from )ad/ left t)e capital follo+ing t+o mont)s of sectarian clas)es bet+een )ristian militias and Muslims accused of collaborating +it) t)e armed 'eleka rebels# -umanitarian organisations )ave reported t)at Muslim neig)bour)oods in Bangui are being destroyed and even Muslims +)o )ad lived in t)e capital for generations appear to )ave decided to leave# !" is a predominantly )ristian country/ +it) a Muslim minority living mostly in t)e nort)/ close to t)e borders +it) Muslim neig)bours )ad and 'udan# !s reports of t)e e%odus emerged/ t)e 3nternational riminal ourt 03 1 announced a preliminary investigation into potential +ar crimes and crimes against )umanity in !"# 3 prosecutor Fatou Bensouda described t)e situation on 4 February as )aving gone 5from bad to +orse*/ +it) evidence of e%treme brutality against civilians# ()e situation of t)e refugees +ill furt)er add to t)e )umanitarian crisis in !"/ +it) t)e 67 reporting t)at over 8/000 civilians )ad already fled to ameroon# 9)en an alliance of Muslim rebels overt)re+ President Fran:ois Bo.i.; in Marc) 201</ grievances +ere mostly focused on political and economic issues/ rat)er t)an sectarian concerns# -o+ever/ +it) increasingly violent clas)es involving mercenaries from )ad and 'udan/ relations bet+een t)e 'eleka and t)e )ristian population +orsened/ causing t)e anti&Balaka )ristian self&defence militias to begin a retaliation campaign# ()e ensuing fig)ting claimed t)e lives of more t)an one t)ousand people over a fe+ days in =ecember 201<# ()ere presently appears to be little basis for interim president at)erine 'amba&Pan.a to unite t)e country#

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"ther developments The trial of a former wandan army captain# charged with complicity in the 1$$% genocide and crimes against humanity# has begun at a Paris court& Pascal 'imbikang+a/ +)o denies t)e c)arges/ could face a life sentence if found guilty# -e is accused of inciting and organising massacres and encouraging t)e 3ntera)am+e -utu militia to kill (utsi civilians# ()e first of its kind in France/ "+anda>s former colonial po+er/ t)e trial is e%pected to last up to t+o mont)s# France )as previously been criticised for its slo+ response to t)e unfolding genocide/ allegations of enabling suspects to enter France and t)+arted attempts to bring perpetrators to ?ustice# The 'ibyan government announced on % (ebruary that all chemical weapons from the Muammar )addafi era had been destroyed& ()e process began in 2004 +)en @ibya signed t)e )emical 9eapons onvention but )ad been interrupted by t)e revolution of 2011/ +)en Aaddafi +as overt)ro+n by a 7!(O&backed uprising# 3t is )oped t)e destruction of t)e +eapons +ill limit potential security risks in t)e country/ +)ic) )as remained unstable since t)e revolution# Foreign Minister Mo)amed !bdela.i. stressed t)e international effort and tec)nical assistance reBuired for t)e destruction# Eight miners have died in an accident in a gold mine near *ohannesburg# +outh Africa# after a fire broke out on % (ebruary following an earth,uake& 9it) some of t)e deepest mines in t)e +orld in 'out) !frica/ government and industry actors )ave tried to improve +orkers> safety since t)e end of apart)eid/ but +it) mi%ed results# !s t)e searc) for a missing +orker continued/ platinum producers said negotiations to end a t+o&+eek strike )ad broken do+n# !round 80/000 members of t)e !ssociation of Mine+orkers and onstruction 6nion 0!M 61/ +)o demand pay rises/ )ave been on strike since 2< Canuary# On 4 February/ 'out) !frican police stated t)ey )ad been using rubber bullets against </000 striking +orkers# Mean+)ile/ President Cacob Duma called elections for 4 May/ +)ic) are e%pected to be closely contested/ as t)e ruling !frican 7ational ongress 0!7 1 faces decreasing levels of popularity and protests against poor government services across t)e country# "n the radar The -. +ecurity Council will consult on the situation in +outh +udan as clas)es continue in t)e Conglei area# (rench energy company Areva is renegotiating the royalties it pays .iger for uranium mining operations after admitting t)e country>s demand for )ig)er revenue +as legitimate#

!mericas
E/0guerrilla leader takes lead in El +alvador presidential election Former left&+ing guerrilla leader 'alvador 'anc)e. er;n/ of t)e Farabundo MartE 7ational @iberation Front 0FM@71/ overtook )is rig)t&+ing rival by an almost 10&point margin in t)e $l 'alvador presidential election on 2 February# ()e FM@7 emerged during t)e $l 'alvador ivil 9ar 01F4F&F21 in opposition to t)e 6'&backed conservative governments# 3t first ascended to t)e presidency in 200F under t)e leaders)ip of FM@7 moderate arlos Mauricio Funes# !lt)oug) er;n +as t)e favourite to succeed t)e outgoing President Funes/ t)e results +ere +ell beyond t)e e%pected margin of victory# -o+ever/ er;n remained s)ort of t)e 20G plus one vote needed to clinc) victory# -e +ill t)erefore face )is opponent 7orman Hui?ano/ of t)e rig)t&+ing 7ational "epublican !lliance 0!rena1/ in t)e run off on F Marc)# Open Briefing | !

! ma?or t)eme of t)e campaign +as t)e rising t)reat of gang +ars# ! of violence in t)e country follo+ed t)e deportation of t)ousands of 'alvadorans from t)e 6nited 'tates in t)e mid&1FF0s/ t)e ma?ority of +)om +ere part of criminal organisations# 3n 2012/ t)e FM@7 and at)olic )urc) brokered a landmark ceasefire bet+een M'&1< and t)e 18 'treet Aang/ t+o of t)e most prominent rival gangs# !s a result/ t)e annual murder rate +as slas)ed by around )alf# But last year/ levels of violence started to increase/ and it is suspected t)at t)e ceasefire )as been secretly flouted# ! significant portion of t)e population of $l 'alvador is directly or indirectly affiliated +it) gangsI it is estimated t)at JG of t)e population rely on gang activities as a source of income# ()e t+o presidential candidates offer differing approac)es to t)e gang problemK +)ile er;n )as pledged to deepen t)e outgoing president*s social programmes in impoveris)ed areas/ Hui?ano )as called for t)e military to be deployed# 3n t)e past fe+ mont)s/ Funes )as distanced )imself from t)e truce by adopting a more )ardline approac)# 3n spite of t)e FM@7*s good results in t)e first round of t)e presidential election/ it is likely t)at er;n +ill seek to foster ne+ political alliances in order to ensure )is victory in t)e run off# !s suc)/ )e )as approac)ed t)e former centre&rig)t president !ntonio 'aca +)o came t)ird in t)e election +it) 11#4G of t)e vote# 'aca +as initially part of t)e !rena party until being e%pelled in 200F and later creating )is o+n party/ t)e Arand !lliance for 7ational 6nity 0A!7!1# =uring t)e election campaign/ )e +as stained by an alleged case of corruption# "ther developments The spying scandal e/posed in Colombia reveals power struggle between the military and the government& ! olombian army unit +as reported to )ave been spying on t)e ongoing government peace talks +it) t)e "evolutionary !rmed Forces of olombia 0F!" 1# !ccording to t)e allegations/ t)e unit )as spied for more t)an a year on t)e talks taking place in -avana/ uba# President Cuan Manuel 'antos )as pledged to s)ed lig)t on t)e 5dark forces* be)ind t)e operation# On 4 February/ t+o army generals in c)arge of intelligence +ere suspended# Many army officers )ave criticised 'antos*s conciliatory approac) to t)e F!" t)reat# 3t is suspected t)at t)e spying unit +as part of a broader resistance +it)in t)e army t)at opposes a peace settlement +it) F!" # Clashes between protestors and police forces in io de *aneiro# 2ra3il# underpin rising tensions ahead of the !41% 5orld Cup& ! peaceful protest of around a t)ousand people in "io de Caneiro*s principal train station turned violent# ()e protest +as called by t)e Free Pass movement/ a civil organisation t)at is opposed to public transport fares# ()e police eventually managed to disperse t)e protestors late in t)e evening amid clas)es +it) radical groups# ()e incident )ig)lig)ted t)e lack of readiness of t)e police force# !round 100/000 policemen +ill be mobilised for t)e security of t)e 9orld up from 12 Cune to 1< Culy# The Me/ican government has unveiled a new strategy for violence0ridden state of Michoac6n& On 2 February/ Me%ican President $nriBue PeLa 7ieto announced t)e creation of a M<#4 billion fund to tackle t)e problem of insecurity in t)e region# ()is funding is t)ree times larger t)an t)e yearly state budget and +ill be used to invest in infrastructure and social programmes# ()e declaration comes a +eek after t)e government decided to regularise t)e civil militias operating in t)e state# ,iolence in Mic)oacNn )as deeply +eakened t)e country*s image at a time +)en t)e government is seeking muc) needed foreign investments#
t)

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"n the radar The second round of the presidential elections is to be held in El +alvador on F Marc)# Me/ican President Enri,ue Pe7a .ieto is to meet -+ President 2arack "bama and Canadian Prime Minister +tephen 8arper in Toluca# Me/ico# on 1F February# (A C has re9ected a possible ceasefire during legislative election in olombia on F Marc)# :outh gatherings in shopping centres in 2ra3il;s ma9or cities are planned until at least 1< (ebruary& Potential for further protests in 2uenos Aires# Argentina# as residents demand t)at t)e government repair roads damaged by )eavy rainfall and flooding#

!sia and Pacific

Thailand;s anti0government protestors seek to win over farmers !mid t)e numerous problems of ()ai Prime Minister Oingluck ')ina+atra/ discontent among )er key rural supporters is gro+ing# ()e government )as not yet paid a total of 140 billion ba)t to over a million farmers under its rice&pledging sc)eme# 6nder t)is sc)eme/ t)e government promises to buy rice at an above&market price/ but t)ey )ave been unable to e%port t)e rice to raise funds# 3n response/ road blockades and protests )ave erupted across t)e country# On J February/ farmers desperately appealed to ()ailand*s king to intervene# Mean+)ile/ 'ut)ep ()augsuban*s anti&government movement )as been courting t)e rural protestors# -e )as personally led marc)es in Bangkok to raise money for farmers +)o )ave not yet been paid by t)e government for t)eir crops# ()e sc)eme is one of Oingluck*s populist policies +)ic) )elped )er P)eu ()ai Party +in t)e 2011 general election# "ice farmers )ave been natural supporters of Oingluck*s party/ +)o )ave been able to raise living standards +it) policies suc) as c)eap )ealt)care# ()eir support is a vital for Oingluck to maintain legitimacy against t)e middle&class protest movement in Bangkok# ()e protest movement is clearly trying to capitalise upon t)is opportunity for sympat)ising +it) rice farmers# -o+ever/ it is unclear +)et)er farmers* leaders are taking sides# For e%ample/ t)e )ead of t)e ()ai "ice Farmers !ssociation/ Prasit Boonc)oey/ denied backing ()augsuban# "ice gro+ers are also unsure against +)om t)ey s)ould direct t)eir blame# 'upport and legitimacy is clearly eroding from Oingluck*s P)eu ()ai Party# ()e ()ailand =evelopment "esearc) 3nstitute )as recommended t)at t)e government sell rice stockpiles at a deflated price to pay its outstanding debts/ and t)en suspend t)e rice&pledging pro?ect in t)e long term# ()is is a possible solution/ but +ill lead to +idespread embarrassment and t)e admission t)at populism is unaffordable# ()e snap election of 2 February +as disrupted and t)e opposition boycotted t)e ballot# 9it) turnout of 44#4 percent/ t)e opposition argue t)at legitimacy )as not been conferred to Oingluck# ()e electoral commission is planning a re&continuation of t)e election on May and it seems t)at Oingluck*s government +ill be returned +it) a significantly lo+er vote margin# 6ntil t)en/ a caretaker government +it) limited spending po+ers +ill continue for +eeks#

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"ther developments Two Myanmar political party chiefs have escaped an apparent assassination attempt in =uala 'umpur# Malaysia# on > (ebruary& !ye Maung/ of t)e "ak)ine 7ationalities =evelopment Party/ and !ye ()ar !ung/ of t)e !rakan @eague for =emocracy/ +ere fired upon by attackers on a motorcycle# !nalysts believe t)is may )ave been retaliation by "o)ingya Muslims/ a minority group +)o )ave fled to Malaysia to escape persecution in Budd)ist&ma?ority Myanmar# ()e investigation continues# .orth and +outh =orea have agreed to re0continue the bilateral agreement to hold cross0border gatherings for the elderly& ()is is e%pected to take place from 20 to 22 February# ()ese gat)erings are largely seen as a litmus test for improvements in 7ort)&'out) relations# -o+ever/ Pyongyang )as repeatedly t)reatened to ret)ink t)e agreement and )as rene+ed calls for t)e cancellation of 'out) Porea*s regular military e%ercises +it) t)e 6nited 'tates# ()e family reunions )ave not been )eld since 2010 amid strained ties due to 7ort) Porea*s nuclear ambitions# "n the radar The results of Tokyo;s election for governor will be returned on 14 (ebruary& The Philippines hopes to settle the diplomatic rift with 8ong =ong over the !414 hostage crisis +it) a 5generous* compensation pay&out# The final round of the election of .epal;s prime minister takes place on 14 (ebruary& Myanmar will investigate an incident on 11 *anuary +)en a police officer died and alleged arson occurred in +estern "ak)ine state# +outh =orea?s defence ministry will announce the schedule for 9oint military e/ercises with the -nited +tates this week#

$urope
@iolent protests spread across 2osnia08er3egovina ()is +eek/ Bosnia&-er.egovina e%perienced its +orst civil unrest since t)e end of t)e civil +ar in 1FF2# ()e protests +ere sparked by t)e sudden unemployment of t)e ma?ority of (u.la*s employees follo+ing t)e closure and privatisation of a number of factories in t)e to+n# ! cro+d of 2/000 stormed a local government building/ t)ro+ing furniture from t)e upper stories and clas)ing +it) police/ leading to t)e in?ury of more t)an 1<0 people/ mainly police officers# ()e protest spread to 20 cities and to+ns over t)e +eek and t)e movement )as turned into a general protest against t)e government and a display of anger over t)e country*s political and economic stagnation# @ocal media )as reported t)at up to 200 people )ave been in?ured# las)es bet+een t)e police and protesters continue +it) riot police using +ater cannons/ tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse cro+ds# On 4 February/ follo+ing an emergency meeting +it) regional security ministers and prosecutors/ t)e prime minister of Bosnia>s autonomous Bosniak& roat federation/ recognised t)e unfairness of t)e sacking of t)e (u.la employees# -o+ever/ )e also accused protesters of )ooliganism and made it clear t)at t)ere +ould be repercussions for t)e destruction of property during t)e demonstrations# Mean+)ile/ t)e premiers of t+o of Bosnia>s cantons/ 'ead ausevic of (u.la and Munib -use?nagic of Denica&=obo?/ )ave resigned in lig)t of t)e protests#

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()e protests stem from years of simmering discontentment over t)e economic and political situation in t)e country/ +)ic) )as been e%acerbated by t)e political bickering bet+een t)e t)ree main et)nic groups/ Bosniaks/ roats and 'erbs/ and )as stifled governance and economic development since t)e civil +ar# !s a result/ Bosnia&-er.egovina*s sluggis) economy )as suffered from mismanagement and corruption/ and today/ t)e country suffers from rising unemployment/ +)ic) is currently at 24#2G and t)e )ig)est amongst t)e Balkan countries# ()e population )as t)erefore become sceptical of t)e government/ +)ic) it believes is elite&driven and lacks t)e ability to improve t)e situation# "ther developments An A3erbai9ani soldier was shot dead by an Armenian army sniper during an e/change in fire on the frontline in .agorno0=arabakh between 'ower =arabakh and Bange3ur in the +outh Caucasus& ()e deat) +as announced by t)e defence ministry on Friday 4 February# ()e situation in t)e region remains tense and t)e 1FF4 ceasefire agreement )as been violated do.ens of times t)is year# ()e risks associated +it) travelling to t)e border areas bet+een t)e t+o countries are )ig)# "n A (ebruary# the -+ Assistant +ecretary of +tate for European and Eurasian Affairs# @ictoria .uland# was forced to an issue an apology to $6 counterparts follo+ing t)e publication of a video/ in +)ic) t)e diplomat criticised t)e $6# ! conversation bet+een 7uland and t)e 6' !mbassador to 6kraine/ Aeoffrey Pyatt/ )ad been recorded and uploaded to Oou(ube# 3n t)e discussion over international efforts to resolve t)e 6krainian political crisis/ 7uland is )eard colourfully arguing t)at t)e 6nited 'tates s)ould ignore t)e $6*s position# 3n return/ !ngela Merkel*s spokesperson released a statement emp)asising Aermany*s )eavy criticism of t)e comments and praising t)e +ork of t)e $6*s foreign policy c)ief/ at)erine !s)ton# Mean+)ile/ t)e 6nited 'tates )as accused "ussia of recording and releasing t)e video and pointed out t)at t)e "ussian deputy prime minister/ =mitry "ogo.in/ +as among t)e first to t+eet about t)e video before it came viral# "ussia )as yet to comment on t)e issue# "n C (ebruary# the -krainian interior minister# @italiy Bakharchenko# announced that the ministry believed that radical far0right groups were planning terror attacks in the country# (ensions bet+een protesters and t)e government )ave subdued t)is last +eek since negotiations bet+een t)e government and opposition began# On t)e same day/ 6' !ssistant 'ecretary of 'tate ,ictoria 7uland stated t)at t)e 6nited 'tates +ould be +illing to offer 6kraine financial support if t)e 6krainian government conducted constitutional and electoral reforms to alleviate t)e country*s political crisis# ()e opposition )as demanded early presidential and parliamentary elections as +ell as constitutional c)anges t)at +ould curb t)e president*s po+er# "n the radar Talks are e/pected to resume this week between )reek and Turkish Cypriots on t)e reunification of yprus# Planned student demonstrations to take place in Pristina# the capital of =osovo# on 14 (ebruary& The (rench president# (rancois 8ollande# will visit 5ashington this week in a bid to reinforce bilateral security and economic partners)ips bet+een t)e 6nited 'tates and France# The European -nion;s foreign ministers to meet 14 (ebruary for emergency funding talks for -kraine& Open Briefing | A

Middle $ast
+audi citi3ens to face long prison sentences if found fighting in foreign conflicts On < February/ 'audi !rabia announced a royal decree t)at +ould see 'audi citi.ens ?ailed for up to 20 years if found to be fig)ting in conflicts abroad# ()e royal decree also stated t)at citi.ens t)at endorse or give moral or material aid to groups t)at it classifies as terrorist or e%tremist organisations +ould face a prison sentence of up to <0 years# ()e announcement comes several days after t)e introduction of a ne+ anti&terrorism la+ t)at includes any act t)at 5disturbs public order/ s)akes t)e security of society/ or sub?ects its national unity to danger/ or obstructs t)e primary system of rule or )arms t)e reputation of t)e state*# ()e introduction of t)e royal decree is an attempt to deter 'audi citi.ens from ?oining rebel fig)ters in 'yria and posing a security risk upon t)eir return# ()e interior ministry estimates t)at some 1/200 'audis )ave travelled to 'yria to fig)t against President Bas)ar al&!ssad*s regime# Previously/ 'audi citi.ens +)o )ad travelled abroad to fig)t in !fg)anistan and 3raB returned to carry out attacks inside t)e kingdom# Over t)e past decade/ t)ousands of people )ave been imprisoned for allegedly +orking +it) al&Haeda# -o+ever/ )uman rig)ts groups )ave argued t)at many of t)ose convicted +ere actually guilty of calling for political c)ange# 'audi !rabia is a key regional ally of t)e 6nited 'tates and t)e dynasty rulers continue to be concerned by c)allenges to absolute rule and t)e rise of conservative 'unni doctrine t)roug)out t)e Middle $ast# 6nder t)e ne+ la+/ $gypt*s Muslim Brot)er)ood and t)e @ebanese ')i*ite -e.bolla) are likely to be classified as terrorist organisations# 3n t)e past/ 'audi !rabia )as condemned pro&Brot)er)ood demonstrations in $gypt as terrorism and )as accused -e.bolla) of acting on be)alf of 3ran# ()e ne+ la+s +ill be criticised by )uman rig)ts groups as restricting freedom of e%pression and criticism of t)e royal family# "ther developments There was a large e/plosion at a hotel in Peshawar# the capital of =hyber Pakhtunkhwa# Pakistan# on % (ebruary# ()e e%plosion killed nine people and in?ured a furt)er 20 in t)e ')ia dominated neig)bour)ood# Officials reported t)at it +as a suicide attack# On t)e same day/ a prominent ')ia leader +as assassinated at a market and an attack on a cinema on 2 February killed t)ree people# Pes)a+ar )as been on t)e frontline in t)e struggle against (aliban militants and t)e situation remains volatile# !ttacks on ')ias and locations t)at are associated +it) immoral practices are likely to continue in t)e s)ort term# Mean+)ile/ t)e Pakistani government )eld a formal meeting +it) representatives of t)e (aliban in 3slamabad# Al0Daeda;s successor to "sama bin 'aden# Ayman al0Bawahiri# distanced the organisation from the Eslamic +tate of Era, and the 'evant FE+E'G in a statement released on 1 (ebruary& ()e statement claimed t)at al&Haeda )ad no connection +it) t)e 3'3@ and t)at it is not responsible for t)e actions of t)e group# ()e number of foreign ?i)adi fig)ters operating under t)e 3'3@ in 'yria )as increased over t)e past year and t)e group )as been accused of committing atrocities against ')i*ite and !la+ite minorities# Moreover/ t)e 3'3@ )as clas)ed +it) ot)er 3slamic rebel groups in 'yria because of t)eir apparent interest in pursuing sectarian violence and t)e creation of a transnational calip)ate# 3t is unlikely/ )o+ever/ t)at t)e announcement +ill reduce frictions bet+een rival factions in 'yria and 3raB#

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The +yrian government was scheduled to dispatch a large shipment of chemical weapons on < (ebruary but failed to meet the deadline& ()is delay follo+s on from t)e missed deadline on <1 =ecember 201<# ()e agreed timescale bet+een 'yria/ t)e 6nited 7ations and t)e Organisation for t)e Pro)ibition of )emical 9eapons for t)e destruction of 'yria*s c)emical +eapons +as accepted in 'eptember 201<# !ccording to t)e agreement/ more t)an F0G of 'yria*s c)emical arsenal s)ould )ave been s)ipped out/ but it is believed t)at less t)an 2G of t)e total +eapons )ave been dispatc)ed# ()e 'yrian government )as blamed t)e delay on t)e civil +ar and )as reiterated its commitment to destroying its c)emical +eapons by mid&2014# "n the radar )eneva EE talks are scheduled to resume on 14 (ebruary& ()e 67 backed peace talks are an attempt to bring 'yria*s civil +ar to an end# The deadline for a deal made between Eran and the Enternational Atomic Energy Agency will e/pire on 11 (ebruary& (e)ran must demonstrate t)at it )as taken si% practical steps to+ards curbing its nuclear programme# 11 (ebruary marks the third anniversary of the removal of the former Egyptian president 8osni Mubarak# 8eightened security is e/pected in +anaa# :emen# follo+ing t)e killing of a senior intelligence official on F February# Anti0government demonstrations are possible in Manama# 2ahrain# on 14 February/ +)ic) marks t)e anniversary of t)e 2011 uprising#

Polar regions
ussia;s ambassador to the Arctic Council refutes claims of regional militarisation "ussia*s ambassador to t)e !rctic ouncil/ !nton ,asiliev/ )as denied t)e current global media speculation t)at !rctic states are seeking to militarise t)e Far 7ort)# ()e rebuttal/ delivered in an intervie+ to "ussian state ne+s agency 3(!"&(!''/ rested on t+o main assertions# First/ t)e dispatc)ing of military forces to t)e !rctic reflects a c)ange in !rctic environmental and economic conditions t)at makes t)eir presence necessary# ,asiliev noted t)at "ussia*s 20/000 kilometre border along its !rctic coast +as once rendered impenetrable by ice but t)e continued retreat of summer ice levels )as broug)t +it) it t)e t)reat of illegal emigration/ organised crime and terrorism# -e also mentioned t)e increasing economic activity of t)e !rctic ouncil states in t)eir Far 7ort)/ arguing t)at a military presence +as essential to provide t)e necessary infrastructure for searc) and rescue operations# 'econd/ ,asiliev claimed t)at t)e military build& up in t)e !rctic +as a transparent process/ +)ic) +as 5aimed at no one* and pursued in a clear 5spirit of cooperation*#

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,asiliev*s message +ill be received by many analysts as a furt)er +elcome antidote to t)e press speculation on an !rctic arms race/ +)ic) often takes on a )ig)ly sensationalist tone# ()ere is considerable evidence from recent e%c)anges at t)e international diplomatic and military levels t)at t)e spirit of cooperation cited by ,asiliev e%ists beyond r)etoric# For e%ample/ be)ind t)e )ig)ly visible recent "ussian military build&up/ t)e aggressive response to Areenpeace activists in t)e !rctic <0 case and anadian Prime Minister 'tep)en -arper*s discourse on !rctic sovereignty stands one barely reported eventK t)e invitation of "ussian observers to t)e anadian military training e%ercise Operation 7anook# ()is indicates a level of military cooperation unimaginable in t)e old 9ar period t)at doomsday ?ournalists often invoke# ()e )ars) climactic conditions and sparse populations of t)e !rctic region often mean t)at only national militaries )ave t)e capabilities for providing key infrastructure/ particularly for searc) and rescue operations/ and t)e logic of increased cooperation in t)is sp)ere in a period of increased economic activity is a po+erful guarantee for peace# Furt)ermore/ 201< +as a very successful year for t)e !rctic ouncil/ +)ose aut)ority and ability to promote peaceful diplomacy +as given a furt)er boost of approval by t)e large number of applications for observer status submitted by countries including )ina/ 'out) Porea/ 3ndia and Capan# Aiven t)e +idespread consensus among e%pert !rctic&+atc)ers t)at t)e risk of military conflict is lo+/ +)at is to be made of t)e +idely reported cases t)at seem to indicate ot)er+iseQ First/ blame must be laid to a considerable e%tent on press sensationalism# 'econd/ political analysts and international relations e%perts of a realist bent accustomed to seeing supranational organisations as superfluous )ave underestimated t)e scope for cooperation and t)e success of t)e !rctic ouncil# Finally/ t)e significance of t)e cases )ig)lig)ted above )as often been misunderstood# 3n bot) anada and "ussia sabre&rattling speec)es about pro?ecting sovereignty into t)e !rctic are mainly intended for a domestic audience# -ence despite ,ladimir Putin*s and -arper*s at times fiery r)etoric/ "ussian and anadian diplomats publicly state t)at cooperation bet+een t)e t+o !rctic giants )as in fact never been closer# 6ntil t)e 67 onvention on t)e @a+ of t)e 'ea finally rules over t)e possession of t)e vast under+ater @omonosov ridge/ currently disputed by "ussia/ anada and =enmark 0t)roug) its territories in Areenland1/ t)ere is little ?ustification for doubting t)at t)is cooperation +ill continue# "ther developments +wedish artists are protesting the plans of local government in the (ar .orth to allow the construction of a mine in the *okkmokk municipality& ()e artists boycotted t)e annual Cokkmokk 9inter Market on J February/ +)ic) attracts visitors from around t)e +orld +it) a range of cultural events and crafts s)o+casing t)e +ay of life of t)e indigenous 'ami population# ()e 'ami rely on reindeer )erding for t)eir economic sustenance and for t)e preservation of t)eir culture/ and t)e artists claim t)at t)e construction of t)e mine and related infrastructure +ill disrupt t)e traditional pastures on +)ic) t)e reindeer depend# The (innish ambassador to .orway called for cooperation between the two countries to construct a railway line through (innish 'apland to the .orwegian Arctic coast& 'peaking at a 4 February conference in Pirkenes/ 7or+ay/ t)e ambassador claimed t)at leading politicians and industrialists in -elsinki are ready to back t)e pro?ect# ()e line +ould be a link not only bet+een !rctic +aters and t)e 7ordic markets/ but also +it) markets in entral $urope# !s muc) as 20G of t)e investment could be covered by $6 funding/ in a pro?ect t)at t)e ambassador argues is essential for t)e region# Open Briefing | $

(inland;s ma9or political parties are backing a proposed increase in defence spending after !41<& Of t)e groups represented in t)e parliament/ only t)e ?unior government partners t)e @eft !lliance and Areen @eague are opposed to t)e increase# !ccording to estimates dra+n up by Finnis) defence command/ t)e armed forces need an additional MJ8 million 0R20 million1 in 201J and anot)er M20< million 0R120 million1 by 2020 in order to remain effective at protecting Finnis) sovereignty# ! special parliamentary committee )as been set up to revie+ t)e defence force proposal# "n the radar The <th Polar +hipping +ummit will be held on !A0!C (ebruary in 'ondon to discuss tec)nological/ operational and logistical c)allenges faced by s)ip o+ners in )ars) arctic conditions# An Enternational Arctic Envestment +ummit on !C (ebruary +ill invite international investors to consider t)e t)eme of t)e 57ort)ern 'ea "outeK 3nfrastructure and (ransport& ommunication 'ystems in t)e !rctic*# Travellers to all ussian cities are advised on e/tra security precautions t)at are to remain in place until 21 Marc) in response to t)e )eig)tened t)reat of terrorism around t)e 'oc)i Olympics#

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