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Contents
Long term steel market trends
Global demand for steel in 1950-2010
Conclusions
800
400
2011
7
1,527
Source: worldsteel
19 50 19 54 19 58 19 62 19 66 19 70 19 74 19 78 19 82 19 86 19 90 19 94 19 98 20 02 20 06 20 10
58.4%
41.6%
41.7%
58.3%
28.7%
71.3%
45
40
Vietnam
35
30
% 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
25
Forecast
20
India Indonesia
15
84 86 96 06 08 80 82 92 94 02 04 12 20 88 90 98 00 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 10 20 20 20 19 19 19 20 14
Egypt
Singapore
Algeria
Argentina
Malaysia
Brazil
Italy
United Kingdom
United States
Turkey
India
Spain
Saudi Arabia
Philippines
South Korea
Indonesia
South Africa
Morocco
Germany
Russia
Canada
Vietnam
Thailand
Ukraine
Poland
EU 15
Japan
China
Iran
Population, million 2011 Brazil Mexico Turkey Indonesia Thailand Vietnam India China
197 115 74 242 70 89 1,241 1,347
2020
210 126 81 263 72 96 1,387 1,388
2020
14,015 16,911 16,675 6,106 10,884 4,803 5,895 14,306
76
77
13,224 12,390
53 34 30 30 51
61 39 35 34 61
12
13
Mt 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
-6.1
-32.9
-40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: worldsteel
14
World CIS Africa EU-27 NAFTA Middle East Other Europe Central&South America Asia&Oceania
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
6.6 6.5 6.4
2013
5.9 6.1
6.0
1.9
1.9
5.7
1.4 1.2
Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
5.4
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Source: IMF
16
Forecast
1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08 3Q 08 1Q 09 3Q 09 1Q 10 3Q 10 1Q 11 3Q 11 1Q 12 3Q 12 1Q 13 3Q 13 1Q 14 3Q 14
-15 -20 -25 -30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Automotive Metal Goods Electrical engineering Mechanical engineering Transportation (less automotive) 2012 2013 2014 2015
18
-10 -20 -30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Fabricated metal products Mechanical machinery Electrical and optical equipment Motor vehicles
2012
2013
2014
2015
10
120 100 80
60 40 Industrial production 20 0
20 07 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 10 20 11 20 11 20 12 20 12 20 08 20 09 20 06
-5
Manufacturing
Motor vehicles
-10 2005 2006 Indonesia 2007 2008 Thailand 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Vietnam Malaisia ASEAN
1Q
3Q
3Q
3Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
1Q
3Q
3Q
3Q
1Q
1Q
3Q
India
Current deceleration due to anti inflationary policy weak external demand Long term: economy needs modern infrastructure
India and China: Industrial production growth, %
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 India % China
21
30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Jan-08 Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan-09 Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan-10 Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan-11 Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan-12
FAI in real est ate Floor space under construction
14.2%
Source: worldsteel
22
25000
Qinghai
Hebei Ningxia Shanxi Shandong Shaanxi Henan Anhui Sichuan Hubei Jiangxi Hunan Fujian Guizhou Yunnan
20000
Xizang
15000
Developed
10000
Hainan
5000
National Total
Guangxi
Ningxia
0
Inner Mongolia Hebei Liaoning Shanghai Shandong Jiangsu Guangdong Beijing Zhejiang Fujian Jilin Heilongjiang Tianjin
Chongqing
23
Guizhou
Shaanxi
Qinghai
Yunnan
Shanxi
Anhui
Jiangxi
Hubei
Hainan
Sichuan
Xinjiang
Gansu
Henan
Hunan
Tibet
Conclusions
Regional structure of global steel demand has been changing over time due to many different factors including competitiveness of the local manufacturing, construction activity, population trends. Despite the deceleration of growth in the post crisis period developing economies have strong fundamentals for steel demand growth. Global steel demand has maintained relatively stable recovery momentum so far despite uncertainties and volatilities in the global economy. Evolution of the euro zone crisis and healthy growth of the emerging economies, especially of China, are critical to current trends.
24
Steel touches every aspect of our lives. No other material has the same unique combination of strength, formability and versatility.
25
worldsteel.org
26