Introduction to Transportation Planning Ciprian Alecsandru Concordia University 1 Introduction What? To develop forecasts of travel demand and traffic growth Why? To make decisions concerning new or existing transportation facilities Goals? to achieve better level of service in traffic flow, improved safety, savings in energy consumption, travel time savings, economic growth, increased accessibility, etc. 2 CIVI 474/6411 2 Basic Elements of TP Situation Definition understand current situation that gave rise to need for improvement (e.g. travel patterns, traffic volumes, prior studies, scope of study, public hearings). Problem Definition identify the objectives to be accomplished (e.g. reducing traffic congestion, improve safety, and maximize highway-user benefits). Measures of effectiveness are needed such as travel time, delay, and queue lengths. Search for Solutions brainstorming stage to bring in ideas, designs, locations, system configurations. Technology plays a role and this stage requires data gathering, field testing, cost estimation, and operating policies. Analysis of Performance to determine investment cost of project and annual cost for maintenance and operation, to estimate travel demand, and to collect other information on trip length, travel by time of day, noise, air pollution, etc. Evaluation of Alternatives Choice of Project Specification and Construction 3 Transportation Planning Organizations Policy Committee Elected or appointed officials. Makes basic policy decisions and acts as board of directors for the study Technical Committee Engineering and planning staff for evaluations and cost analysis. It includes highway, transit and traffic engineers, and specialists in land-use planning, economics, and computer modeling. Citizens Advisory Committee Community to express goals and objectives of local communities. 4 CIVI 474/6411 3 Urban Transportation Planning Horizons Short-term emphasis (1 to 5 years) for better management of existing facilities such as signal timing, car pooling, dedicated travel lanes etc. Long-term emphasis (10 - 20 years) for new highways, freeway lanes, bus lines, rapid transit systems, overall transportation system analysis and improvement. 5 Forecasting Travel Demand Major objective To determine the number of persons or vehicles per unit time that can be expected to travel a given section under a set of land use, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. This process is as much art as it is a science. Factors influencing travel demand Location and intensity of land use Socioeconomic characteristics of people in study area Extent, cost, and quality of transportation services 6 CIVI 474/6411 4 Forecasting Issues Making accurate forecasting of economic growth/decline Developing methods to accurately forecast the travelers decision making process Temporal (when to) Destination (where to) Mode (how to get there) Spatial (which route to take) Complexity of system equilibration 7 Traveler Decision-Making Process Socioeconomics Household income Household size Car ownership Age Activity Patterns Work Education Shopping Recreation 8 CIVI 474/6411 5 Origins of Modern Urban Transportation Planning (UTP) US Bureau of Roads, 1944 Scientific methods (standardization, systematization) applied to planning of infrastructure, in response to automobile congestion Exported abroad (e.g. Canada, Western Europe, Australia) Goals of UTP Predict and provide for future demand for mobility (supply-side approach) Increase mobility by increasing vehicle speeds, separating modes, etc. Reduced pollution from faster vehicles Comprehensive approach to surface transportation infrastructure (roads and rail) Increasing welfare Serving public interest CIVI 474/6411 6 The UTP Process Data collection Four step travel demand model (prediction of future volumes of car & transit vehicle traffic) Cost-benefit analysis of infrastructure proposals Implementation of infrastructure expansion to provide for anticipated future volumes Travel Forecasting Process 4-step process 12 CIVI 474/6411 7 Basic Definitions Trip Generation Forecasts the number of trips that will be made. Trip Distribution Determines where the trips will go. Mode Choice Predicts how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel Network Assignment Predicts the routes that the trips will take traffic flow on highway or transit links. 13 Initial Preparation Define study area Define area boundaries, should consider future growth. Subdivide the area into zones. What is a zone? Transportation analysis unit (TAZ). Zones vary in size depending on density of urban development Socioeconomic characteristics are homogeneous Internal trips are minimized Use of physical, political, and historical boundaries Use of census tracts 14 CIVI 474/6411 8 Zone Types CBD: zone could be a single block Undeveloped area: zone may be >10 sq. miles Typically, zones bound homogenous activities (all residential, all commercial, and all industrial). Zones are grouped into larger units known as districts (district may contain 10 zones). A city of 1M may have 100 districts. 15 16 CIVI 474/6411 9 O/D Trips Analysis Requirements: Data Collection: economic activities (employment, income, land use type and density, travel characteristics, existing transportation facilities, etc.) Population and Economic Data for each zone Transportation Inventories: computerized network of streets (links, nodes, centroids, etc.) Travel Surveys: for complete understanding of the travel patterns within the study area and for O/D estimation (need trip origin, destination, length, mode, route) Calibration: applies to mathematical models to estimate travel demand in terms of socioeconomic factors, land use, etc. 17 Step 1: TRIP GENERATION The objective of a trip generation model is to forecast the number of person-trips that will begin from or end in each traffic zone within the region for a typical day of the target year. Each trip has two trip ends Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment 18 CIVI 474/6411 10 Classification of Trips The zonal trips are estimated separately by trip purpose. Examples: work trips, shopping trips, social/recreational, medical, and others 19 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Trip Types Home-Based Trips: Are all trips that either begin or end at home of the trip maker (e.g. HomeBasedWork, HBShopping, etc.) Non Home-Based Trips: Are trips with both ends at a place other than trip makers residence (NHBS) Separate trip generation models are usually developed for each trip purpose, because the travel behavior of trip makers depends on the trip purpose, time of day, etc. 20 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 11 Objectives of Trip Generation To develop relationships between trip end production or attraction and land use To use these relationships for estimating the number of trips generated in the future under different land-use conditions 21 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Trip Generation Methods 1. Cross-Classification 2. Rates based on activity units 3. Regression Preference is given to methods that use disaggregated analysis (based on individual sample units: persons, HH, income, vehicle units) Regression analysis uses zonal aggregated data 22 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 12 Cross-Classification Used to determine the number of home- based trips (FHWA) Income and auto ownership are used for trip generation Requires surveys to construct curves describing the zonal characteristics 23 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Average Zonal Income vs. Households in Income Category 24 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 13 Example Dataset (trips per day) 25 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment 26 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Households by Auto Ownership and Income Category CIVI 474/6411 14 Households by Auto Ownership and Income Category 27 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Trips per Household per Day by Auto Ownership and Income Category 28 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 15 Trips per Household per Day by Auto Ownership and Income Category 29 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Trips by Purpose and Income Category 30 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 16 Method 1: Cross-Classification Computing Trips Generated in a Suburban Zone Example: Consider a zone that has 60 dwelling units (houses) Zone average income per house is $44,000 Find the number of trips per day generated by this zone for each trip purpose using figures 12.2 to 12.5 31 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Step 1 Find the percentage of households in each income category Refer to figure 12.2 Avg. zone income $44,000 32 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 17 Step 1: Results Income Category %HH Low (< $32,000) Medium ($32,000-$48,000) High (> $48,000) 9 40 51 Sum = 100 % 33 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Step 2 For each income category, find the distribution of auto ownership/HH using figure 12.3, below: 34 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 18 Step 2: Results Autos / HH From Step 1 Income Category 0 1 2+ Sum % HH Low 54 42 4 100 9 Medium 4 58 38 100 40 High 2 30 68 100 51 % or probability of HH with low income and 0 autos Q: How many HH are with medium income and 1 auto in a zone with 60 HH? 35 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Number of HH by auto and income Autos / HH Income Category 0 1 2+ Sum Low 2.9 2.3 0.2 5 Medium 1.0 9.1 24 High 0.6 9.2 20.8 31 Sum = 60 HH Number of HH with 1 auto and medium Income [=40%*58%*60 HH] = M 1 36 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment 13.9 CIVI 474/6411 19 Step 3 Find the number of trips / HH / day for each income-auto category using figure 12.4 37 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Step 3: Results Autos / HH Income Category 0 1 2+ Low 1 6 7 Medium 2 8 13 High 3 11 15 Number of trips generated by each HH with medium income and 1 auto M 2 = 38 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 20 Step 4 Find the total number of trips / day in each income-auto category Multiply M 1 by M 2 (dot product) and round-up Autos / HH Income Category 0 1 2+ Sum Low 3 14 2 19 Medium 2 111 119 232 High 2 101 312 415 Sum 7 226 433 666 Total trips from zone M 3 = 39 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Step 5 Find trips by purpose using figure 12.5 40 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 21 Step 5: Results: % trips by purpose Trip Purpose Total Trips Income Category %HBO %NHB %HBW Sum from M 3 Low 53.7 31.1 15.2 19 Medium 51 32 17 232 High 49.2 32.8 18 415 666 41 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Final Results Trip Purpose Income Category HBO Home- Based Other NHB Non-Home- Based HBW Home- Based Work Sum from M 3 Low 10.2 5.9 2.88 19 Medium 118.32 74.24 39.44 232 High 204.18 136.12 74.7 415 Sum 333 216 117 666 Total number of home-based work trips per day 42 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 22 43 44 CIVI 474/6411 23 Problem ? 45 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Trip Generation Approaches Cross-Classification Rates based on activity units Regression 46 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 24 Rates Based on Activity Units Trip generation is determined for residential zones where the basic unit is the household. Trips generated at the household end are referred to as productions Are attracted to zones for different purposes (e.g. work, shopping, school, and medical services, etc.) An activity unit can be described by related measures (e.g. square feet of floor space or number of employees). Trip generation rates for attraction zones can be determined from survey data or are tabulated specialized handbooks 47 Rates Based on Activity Units Trip generation rates for attraction zones can be determined from survey data or the rates tabulated in specialized handbooks can be used 48 CIVI 474/6411 25 Rates Based on Activity Units Trip generation rates for attraction zones can be determined from survey data or the rates tabulated in specialized handbooks can be used 49 Rates Based on Activity Units 50 CIVI 474/6411 26 Trip Generation Approaches Cross-Classification Rates based on activity units Regression 51 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Recall: Least Square Regression Develop mathematical relationships from empirical data Linear regression method estimates a relationship between a dependent variable (e.g. number of trips generated from a given zone) and a set of independent variables (e.g. number of persons in a HH, HH income, auto ownership, etc.) Solution comes from an optimization problem that seeks minimizing the sum of square deviations between observed and estimated values 52 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 27 Linear Regression Models To estimate the number of vehicle-based trips Variables: socioeconomic and/or distributional (residential and commercial) characteristics 53 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Example 8.1 (Mannering et al.) 54 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 28 Solution 55 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Use the given linear regression to estimate the number of vehicle trips before and after the family moves. Probabilistic Models Linear regression not always realistic (fractions of trips) Use of probabilistic distribution functions to estimate the probability of making a certain number of trips (0, 1, 2, ) Poisson regression 56 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 29 Poisson Regression 57 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment Example 8.4 (Mannering et al.) 58 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment CIVI 474/6411 30 Solution 59 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Network Assignment