Chapter 15

Probability Rules!

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12/9/13 Aim and Homework

How do we calculate probability using the General Addition Rule, General Multiplication Rule, and Conditional Probability? Homework #34: Read Chapter 15, #1-13 ODD Complete Chapter 15 Quiz: 1) List the formula for the following rules given events A and B: General Addition Rule Conditional Probability General Multiplication Rule Independence 2) What is a tree diagram? 3) What is Bayes Rule?

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The General Addition Rule

When two events A and B are disjoint, we can use the addition rule for disjoint events from Chapter 14: P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) However, when our events are not disjoint, this earlier addition rule will double count the probability of both A and B occurring. Thus, we need the General Addition Rule. Lets look at a picture

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The General Addition Rule (cont.)

General Addition Rule: For any two events A and B, P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) The following Venn diagram shows a situation in which we would use the general addition rule:

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Independent Practice (Copy)

A survey of college students found that 56% live in a campus residence hall, 62% participate in a campus meal program, and 42% do both. Question: Whats the probability that a randomly selected student either lives or eats on campus?

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Independent Practice (Copy)

We return to the survey of college students. 56% live on campus, 62% have a campus meal program, and 42% do both. Based on the Venn Diagram, what is the probability that a randomly selected student: (a) lives off campus and doesnt have a meal program? (b) lives in a residence hall but doesnt have a meal program?

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Conclusion 12/9/13

What did we learn today?

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Do Now 12/9/13(Copy and Do All)

In the book, if you sample random pages you will find the following: 48% of pages have some sort of data display, 27% have an equation, 7% had both a data display and an equation. A) Display these results in a Venn Diagram. B) What is the probability that a randomly selected sample page has neither a data display nor an equation. C) What is the probability that a randomly selected sample page has a data display but no equation?
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12/10/13 Aim and Homework

How do we calculate probability using the General Addition Rule, General Multiplication Rule, and Conditional Probability? Check Homework #34: Read Chapter 15, #1-13 ODD Homework #35 for tomorrow: Read Chapter 15, #15-27 ODD

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It Depends

Back in Chapter 3, we looked at contingency tables and talked about conditional distributions. When we want the probability of an event from a conditional distribution, we write P(B|A) and pronounce it the probability of B given A. A probability that takes into account a given condition is called a conditional probability.

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It Depends (cont.)

To find the probability of the event B given the event A, we restrict our attention to the outcomes in A. We then find the fraction of those outcomes B that also occurred.

P(B|A) = P(A B) P(A)

Note: P(A) cannot equal 0, since we know that A has occurred.

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Independent Practice (Copy)

Our survey told us that 56% of college students live on campus, 62% have a campus meal plan, and 42% do both. Question: While dining in a campus facility open only to students with meal plans, you meet someone interesting. What is the probability that your new acquaintance lives on campus?

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The General Multiplication Rule

When two events A and B are independent, we can use the multiplication rule for independent events from Chapter 14: P(A B) = P(A) x P(B) However, when our events are not independent, this earlier multiplication rule does not work. Thus, we need the General Multiplication Rule.

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The General Multiplication Rule (cont.)

We encountered the general multiplication rule in the form of conditional probability. Rearranging the equation in the definition for conditional probability, we get the General Multiplication Rule: For any two events A and B, P(A B) = P(A) P(B|A) or P(A B) = P(B) P(A|B)

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Independence

Independence of two events means that the outcome of one event does not influence the probability of the other. With our new notation for conditional probabilities, we can now formalize this definition: Events A and B are independent whenever P(B|A) = P(B). (Equivalently, events A and B are independent whenever P(A|B) = P(A).)

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Independent Practice

Our survey told us that 56% of college students live on campus, 62% have a campus meal program, and 42% do both. Question: Are living on campus and having a meal plan independent? Are they disjoint?

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Conclusion

What did we learn today?

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12/11/13 Aim and Homework

How do we calculate probability using the General Addition Rule, General Multiplication Rule, and Conditional Probability? Check Homework #35: Read Chapter 15, #15-27 ODD Homework #36 for tomorrow: Read Chapter 15, #29-41 ODD Collect work from when I am absent at the end of class.

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Independent Disjoint

Disjoint events cannot be independent! Well, why not? Since we know that disjoint events have no outcomes in common, knowing that one occurred means the other didnt. Thus, the probability of the second occurring changed based on our knowledge that the first occurred. It follows, then, that the two events are not independent. A common error is to treat disjoint events as if they were independent, and apply the Multiplication Rule for independent eventsdont make that mistake.
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Independent Practice
The American Association for Public Opinion Research is an organization of about 1600 individuals who share a interest in a public opinion and survey research. They report that typically as few as 10% of random phone calls result in a completed interview. Reasons are varied but some of the most common include no answer, refusal to cooperate, and failure to complete the call. Question: Which of the following events are independent, which are disjoint, and which are neither independent nor disjoint? (a) A=your telephone number is randomly selected B = Youre not at home at dinnertime when they call. (b) A = as a selected subject, you complete the interview B = as a selected subject you refuse to cooperate (c) A = you are not home when they call at 11 a.m. B= You are employed full-time

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Depending on Independence

Its much easier to think about independent events than to deal with conditional probabilities. It seems that most peoples natural intuition for probabilities breaks down when it comes to conditional probabilities. Dont fall into this trap: whenever you see probabilities multiplied together, stop and ask whether you think they are really independent.

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Drawing Without Replacement

Sampling without replacement means that once one individual is drawn it doesnt go back into the pool. We often sample without replacement, which doesnt matter too much when we are dealing with a large population. However, when drawing from a small population, we need to take note and adjust probabilities accordingly. Drawing without replacement is just another instance of working with conditional probabilities.

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Do Now Copy Down and Do All

Earlier, we discussed sample of pages in your Statistics book. 48% of pages had a data display, 27% of pages had an equation, 7% of pages had both a data display and an equation. (a) What is the probability that a randomly selected sample page with an equation also has display data. (b) Are having an equation and having a data display disjoint events? (c) Are having an equation and having a data display independent events?

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12/11/13 Aim and Homework

How do we calculate probability using the General Addition Rule, General Multiplication Rule, and Conditional Probability? Check Homework #36 for tomorrow: Read Chapter 15, #29-41 ODD Homework for tomorrow: Read Chapter 16

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Tree Diagrams

A tree diagram helps us think through conditional probabilities by showing sequences of events as paths that look like branches of a tree. Making a tree diagram for situations with conditional probabilities is consistent with our make a picture mantra.

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Tree Diagrams (cont.)

Figure 15.5 is a nice example of a tree diagram and shows how we multiply the probabilities of the branches together. All the final outcomes are disjoint and must add up to one. We can add the final probabilities to find probabilities of compound events.
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Reversing the Conditioning

Reversing the conditioning of two events is rarely intuitive. Suppose we want to know P(A|B), and we know only P(A), P(B), and P(B|A). We also know P(A B), since

P(A B) = P(A) x P(B|A) From this information, we can find P(A|B):

P(A|B) = P(A B) P(B)

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Bayess Rule

When we reverse the probability from the conditional probability that youre originally given, you are actually using Bayess Rule.

P ( A | B) P ( B) P ( B | A) = C C P ( A | B) P ( B) + P A | B P B

) ( )
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Video

How can Bayes Theorem be used in an attempt to cure cancer? Discussion: Create an example where you could use Bayes Theorem in real life.

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Independent Practice

A recent Maryland highway safety study found that 77% of all accidents the driver was wearing a seatbelt. Accident reports indicate that 92% if those drivers escape serious injury (defined as hospitalization or death), but only 63% of non belted drivers were so fortunate. Question: What is the probability that a driver who wasnt seriously injured was wearing a seatbelt? Moral of the story: BUCKLE UP!
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What Can Go Wrong?

Dont use a simple probability rule where a general rule is appropriate: Dont assume that two events are independent or disjoint without checking that they are. Dont find probabilities for samples drawn without replacement as if they had been drawn with replacement. Dont reverse conditioning naively. Dont confuse disjoint with independent.

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What have we learned?

The probability rules from Chapter 14 only work in special caseswhen events are disjoint or independent. We now know the General Addition Rule and General Multiplication Rule. We also know about conditional probabilities and that reversing the conditioning can give surprising results.

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What have we learned? (cont.)

Venn diagrams, tables, and tree diagrams help organize our thinking about probabilities. We now know more about independencea sound understanding of independence will be important throughout the rest of this course.

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Conclusion

What did we learn today?

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