Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Edward
Pollock
October
6,
2009
The
value
of
gold
pertains
and
relates
directly
to
the
metal
having
acceptance
as
currency.
Gold
finds
its
optimum
value
when
it
can
be
used
as
a
currency
to
store
wealth,
guarantee
paper,
or
effect
transfer
in
goods
and
services.
Perceived
or
functional
demand
for
anything
creates
value.
Societal
culture
and
structure
will
dictate
what
has
importance
be
it
a
baseball
card,
oil,
an
automobile,
a
house,
or
labor
hours.
Value
can
be
transitory
or
it
can
endure
as
gold
has
throughout
civilized
history.
Currency
translates
through
uniform
quantification
the
relationship
in
societal
value
between
the
desirable
commodities,
services,
and
outcomes.
Both
complex
and
all
but
the
most
basic
societies
need
currency
to
effect
the
transfer
of
wealth.
Gold
provides
a
physical
foundation
point
in
currency
throughout
history,
between
nations,
and
across
culture.
Integrated
and
global
societies
have
highly
complex
currency
systems
largely
predicated
on
common
values.
Law,
stability,
and
property
rights
allow
people
to
enjoy
the
benefits
of
a
fast
moving
multiplied
economy
with
a
high
velocity
of
money.
Liberty
may
be
an
additional
component
or
its
presence
may
be
reflected
in
the
rights
to
protection
of
property.
The
three
basic
precepts,
of
law
stability
and
property
rights,
combined
with
currency
provide
the
very
basis
for
productivity
and
most
importantly
these
conditions
foster
investment
and
innovation
with
the
objective
of
societal
returns.
In
the
United
States,
unlike
many
other
nations,
value
may
be
found
in
things
tangible
or
intangible
and
in
property
either
physical
or
intellectual.
Investment
and
re-‐investment
in
productive
enterprises
result
in
economic
success.
The
four
pillars
of
economic
success
are
law,
stability,
property
rights,
and
currency.
These
supports
are
critical
components
of
advanced
economies.
However,
Law
property
rights
and
stability,
are
inherently
more
fragile
than
perceived.
Politics,
culture,
war,
natural
resource
depletion,
population
pressure,
mismanagement,
malfeasance,
events,
and
even
collective
rather
than
objective
opinion
can
drastically
detract
from
the
core
requirements
for
societal
success.
The
comfort
of
highly
functional
economies
provides
false
shelter
and
harbors
erroneous
perception
in
security.
Therefore
as
the
foundation
currency,
gold,
has
a
role,
in
all
types
of
economies
from
the
most
basic
to
the
most
integrated.
By
political
objective,
the
correlation
between
gold
and
currency
has
become
temporarily
more
distant
since
the
1970's.
Just
thirty
years
later
some
banks
and
societies
are
moving
back
towards
the
fundamental
of
gold
today.
A
short-‐lived
politically
biased
counter-‐
trend
does
not
represent
a
speck
of
time
in
relation
to
the
history
of
gold.
Worldwide
political
objectives,
as
well
as
cultural
experience,
are
not
congruent
or
unified
to
common
interests
defined
primarily
by
western
thought
and
influence.
It
can
be
definitively
said
that
interests
are
currently
trending
apart.
Gold
will
become
more
valuable
as
currency
in
a
predictable
long-‐term
enduring
countertrend.
History
speaks
to
this
and
it
will
outlast
us
all.
Today
specific
economic,
political,
regional,
and
international
circumstances
have
the
propensity
to
drive
a
stronger
correlation
between
gold
and
its
role
as
currency.
Both
mainstream
and
outlying
contingencies
can
and
will
drive
gold
to
become
more
attractive
as
currency.
Therefore
a
portfolio
that
has
a
percentage
weight
in
gold
proportional
to
the
probability
of
specific
circumstances
will
be
well
served.
Finding
that
proportional
level
of
gold
to
probability
of
circumstance
presents
some
challenge.
However,
and
in
general,
the
level
of
gold
holdings
per
capita
needs
to
be
much
higher
to
adequately
reflect
the
probabilities
in
which
its
application
would
be
useful.
Inflation,
in
a
paper
money
system
or
fiat
money
system,
has
to
be
considered
part
of
the
normal
range
of
economic
activity.
If
the
economy
were
trending
to
inflation
gold
would
rise
inversely
to
unsecured
paper.
The
value
of
gold
stays
constant
while
the
currency
devalues
as
it
loses
purchasing
power.
Central
banks
have
spent
much
of
their
efforts
curtailing
inflation.
The
pariah
of
inflation
has
been
the
watchword
of
every
central
bank
simply
because
inflation
inherently
exists
in
unsecured
paper
money
systems.
War
also
provides
potential
accelerants
to
inflation.
I
make
this
statement
with
the
caveat
that
for
structural
reasons
this
may
not
apply
in
total
to
the
present
circumstance
in
the
Untied
States.
Gold
provides
a
natural
hedge
against
this
normal
and
mainstream
economic
contingency
of
inflation
yet
few
people
hold
even
1%
of
their
portfolio
in
gold
to
offset
the
high
probability
of
inflation
over
time.
Most
people
are
totally
unprepared
for
the
mainstream,
recurring,
and
relativity
frequent
contingency
of
inflation.
Presently
I
believe
the
globe
may
be
in
a
period
of
"stagnation-‐deflation".
"Stagnation-‐deflation"
implies
that
a
mix
of
deflation
and
inflation
are
present
in
a
slowing
economy.
Both
an
economic
boom
and
"stagnation-‐deflation"
represent
outlying
economic
events
one
deviation
outside
the
norm.
""Stagnation-‐deflation""
provides
opposite
traction
to
the
dislocation
of
a
boom.
In
"stagnation-‐deflation"
returns
that
can
be
derived
on
investments
trend
lower
therefore
gold
appreciates
because
the
opportunity
cost
for
holding
gold
decreases.
Simply
put,
more
people
want
to
hold
gold
to
offset
uncertainty
and
holding
gold
does
not
cost
much
because
alternate
investments
do
not
provide
meaningful
returns.
Perhaps
after
adjustment
the
United
States
will
correct
to
the
normal
economic
range.
However,
political
interests
are
reticent
to
allow
an
adjustment
to
occur
to
take
the
energy
out
of
a
corrective
force
so
in
the
near
term
therefore
the
US
could
shift
to
a
more
severe
outcome
as
the
potential
energy
of
chronic
and
structural
imbalance
compound
rather
than
release.
Unless
the
currency,
stock,
and
debt
markets
shift
to
sustainable
levels
and
valuations,
and
in
the
process
wipe
out
wealth,
the
probability
of
the
"worst
case"
scenario
increases.
In
politics
the
"art
of
the
possible"
in
pleasing
a
constituency
has
much
to
do
with
short
term
perception
rather
than
need
or
circumstance.
Gold
has
absolute
neutrality
to
politics
and
it
has
an
incredibly
long
time
horizon.
I
qualify
these
"worst
case"
events
as
two
standard
deviations
away
but
that
does
not
mean
that
they
are
not
probable.
War
and
structural
imbalances
such
as
deficits
can
drive
a
bad
situation
to
a
worse
outcome.
Where
do
we
go
from
here?
We
can
go
into
a
recovery,
which
would
bring
us
into
a
normal
economic
range.
Inflation
is
one
of
the
possibilities
because
the
economy
would
bounce
off
a
higher
money
supply,
as
the
velocity
of
money
would
increase
through
accelerated
economic
activity.
Gold
speaks
directly
to
the
inflation
potential
of
this
outcome.
Or
we
move
to
outlying
contingency
two
standard
deviations
from
the
mean.
The
two
extreme
potentialities
are
hyperinflation
and/or
a
liquidity
trap.
A
liquidity
trap,
depression,
zero-‐bound,
call
it
what
you
want
circumstances
become
so
unpleasant
that
Gold
might
be
the
least-‐worst
option.
Gold
becomes
a
Hobson's
choice,
"no
choice
at
all."
Gold
as
currency
thrives
in
inflation
therefore
hyperinflation
would
also
drive
gold
towards
the
role
of
currency.
In
either
worst
case
the
risk
of
confiscation
of
gold,
government
intervention,
or
command
of
the
economy
increases
because
of
social
considerations.
A
question
to
ask
would
be
whether
or
not
government
tends
to
reward
the
individuals
who
are
making
the
best
personal
economic
choices?
What
is
the
likelihood
of
these
probabilities?
Would
these
contingencies
warrant
one
percent
of
one's
investments
to
be
in
gold?
What
measures
can
be
effective
in
diversification
both
to
gold
and
in
relation
to
gold
holdings?
Presently
the
United
States
stands
engaged
in
a
war.
Gold
also
finds
its
value
as
currency
because
war
represents
a
major
uncertainty
and
it
can
cause
rapid
dislocation.
Whether
or
not
people
in
the
United
States
believe
that
Gold
has
value
today
many
cultures,
central
banks,
and
individuals
are
quite
convinced
that
gold
provides
utility
as
currency.
Unfortunately
the
common
call
to
any
asset
class
usually
means
that
the
best
time
to
enter
has
been
exhausted.
With
objective
consideration
gold
deserves
to
be
present
at
appropriate
levels
as
part
of
any
portfolios.