Syria Deeply: Geneva Talks Hit an Impasse, Amid Other Moving Parts

2/17/14, 9:25 AM

Syria Deeply: Geneva Talks Hit an Impasse, Amid Other Moving Parts

Dear Deeply Readers, The second round of Syrian peace talks in Geneva closed with an air of failure this weekend. I am very, very sorry, and I apologize to the Syrian people, Lakhdar Brahimi, the chief negotiator working on behalf of the U.N. and the Arab League. I apologize to them that on these two rounds [of peace talks] we havent helped them very much. There was no date set for a follow up meeting, no constructive engagement to build on. Trust between the regime and the opposition, already hovering around nil, fell further when it surfaced that Syrias government had put some of the opposition negotiators on a terrorism blacklist, seizing their assets at home. This in a week where Syrias death toll topped 140,000 people, by activists counts. An extended humanitarian ceasefire in Homs did little for aid conditions at large; by Friday some 1,000 civilians were still trapped under siege in the Old City, after roughly 1,500 were evacuated, according to Sam Dagher of the Wall Street Journal. His Twitter feed from Syria offered live updates and color from the operation. Barrel bombs, the Syrian governments crudely-formed cluster munitions, continued to rain death on Aleppo. With a stated purpose to stop them, Saudi Arabia agreed to send antiaircraft missiles to Syrian rebel fighters (a move that U.S. Senator John McCain said was about time). On the disarmament front, a U.S. company was named one of two entities chosen to help incinerate Syrias chemical weapons, an estimated 1,200-ton stockpile. But still, all is not lost on the diplomatic front. The U.S. bears signs that its undergoing a fundamental rethink of Syria policy, from President Barack Obamas new tone on Syria to veteran commentator Aaron David Millers analysis of Syria strategy through the lens of Americas aspirational engagement with Iran. Reuters saw a leaked copy of the Syrian oppositions political transition plan, which lays out suggested steps toward a handover of
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Syria Deeply: Geneva Talks Hit an Impasse, Amid Other Moving Parts

2/17/14, 9:25 AM

power (while muzzling or at least avoiding mention of their demands for the immediate removal President Bashar al Assad). While Russia effectively blocked a humanitarian aid resolution that would have come before the U.N. Security Council, the U.S. and Russia maintain a parallel dialogue over what to do in Syria. It is their eventual consensus if they can find one that would determine the success of any future peace talks. The question underpinning a solution in Syria remains whether and when Russia will exert pressure on the Assad regime, sufficient to move it into a managed political transition. The corollary: whether and when Iran will be brought on board to back the change. Both Russia and Iran have strategic reasons to keep backing Assad, and both have said they have every intention to do so (as has Hezbollah). But geopolitical realities can shift dramatically, as the U.S. and Iran do their diplomatic dance and Russia has to confront the regimes performance in Geneva, roundly criticized as intransigent and unconstructive. If Geneva succeeded in anything it was in bringing those dynamics to the fore, as the greater forces shaping Syrias future. Highlights from Syria Deeply: Analyzing Russias Support For Assad Eye on the Battle: Yabroud What Concessions Do Aid Groups Want from Geneva? Eye on the Battle: Air Attacks on Aleppo Escalate During Peace Talks Attack on Maan Scares Alawites, Bolsters Assad Should Assads Chemical Weapons Be Destroyed In-Country? How Syrian Children Are Recruited Into Battle

Headlines from the Week: BBC: The Remote-Controlled Robot Waiting to Save Lives on Syrias Battlefield Washington Post: Stephen Hawking on Why Syrias War Must End Reuters: Mediator Apologizes to Syrians for Lack of Progress Guardian: Haunted Survivors of Homs Emerge From Hiding as Fragile Truce Holds AP: Syria Gunman Fire on Jordan Troops at Border BBC: Syria Security Risk a Big Problem for UK Boston Globe: A Srebrenica Moment in Syria Were fielding your feedback on how to better serve you and cover the story. You can reach our team on email at info@syriadeeply.org. Sincerely,
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Syria Deeply: Geneva Talks Hit an Impasse, Amid Other Moving Parts

2/17/14, 9:25 AM

The News Deeply Team

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