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EMC Research February 10, 2014 Recent polling on $15 Minimum Wage

About EMC Research EMC Research is a leading public opinion and market research firm with offices in Seattle (WA), Oakland (CA), Portland (OR), and Columbus (OH). Founded in 1989, the company conducts opinion and market research for a variety of corporate, public agency, political, and not for profit clients throughout the country.

Methodology This memo is based on a telephone survey of 805 likely November 2014 voters in Seattle conducted January 14th 22nd, 2014. Participants were screened to ensure they are voters and were asked about their participation in the upcoming November 2014 elections; 90% said they are certain to participate, and an additional 10% say they will probably participate. The margin of error for the overall results is 3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. The survey was conducted with 115 interviews in each new City Council District ( 9.1 MOE per district) and then weighted back to reflect each districts proportional representation of the City. The respondent profile was checked to ensure consistency with Seattle voter demographics and historical polling for age, self-identified political Party, and geography.

Key Findings Optimism in Seattle is on the rise; the right direction figure is at a five year high. The right direction/wrong track figures, typically seen as a measure of overall confidence in the economy, personal standing, and direction of the City, are at their highest point since 2009.

Seattle Right Direction/Wrong Track

Jan-14 Sep-13 May-13 May-11 May-09

63%

18%

19%

52% 54% 43% 42%

Right Direction DK

16% 12%
14% 19% Wrong Track

31% 34% 43% 39%

Likely November 2014 Seattle voters overwhelmingly support (68%) a $15 minimum wage. The complete text of the question is: A proposal is being considered to set the minimum wage in the City of Seattle at $15 an hour. Only a quarter (25%) oppose, and the remaining 7% are undecided. Support is a strong to overwhelming majority across all major subgroups including the new City Council districts and all vote history groups. The only exception is among self-identified Republicans.

Initial Support
Overall U Dist/Wall'ford/Ravenna (4) Northgate/N. Seattle (5) S. Seattle (2) Cap Hill (3) Ballard/Greenwood (6) QA/Dwntown (7) W. Seattle (1) Dem Ind Rep 3/4 + <2/4 68% 76% 75% 74% 71% 68% 60% 58% 77% 57% 25% 72% 64% 70% 22% 28% 31% 25% 14% 23% 17% 20% 25% 32% 37% 18%

Support

Oppose

Adding one or more of a series of items to make minimum wage legislation more encompassing of other employee-related issues increases support. Every one of the items tested that could be added on to $15 minimum wage legislation serves to make the legislation stronger, extending support beyond initial support for $15 on its own (68%).

Potential $15 Add Ons

Strongly Support Including requirements that tips go to workers, so employers can't steal tips from the workers that earn them Including enforcement rules and fines to ensure that workers are actually being paid what the law requires Paid paternity/maternity & family/medical, paid child care to ensure workers can take time for family/medical needs Closing loopholes in city's sick leave law so workers can take care of their own or their family's medical needs Tying the minimum wage to inflation Require employers give workers more hours/full time, so employers don't hire part time workers to avoid benefits Somewhat Support SUPPORT

71% 63% 54%

17% 23% 26%

88% 86%

80% 79% 76% 73%

56%
47%

23%
29%

47%

26%

Support for a $15 minimum wage solidifies after voters hear about potential add-ons and a series of agree/disagree statements in support of and opposition to increasing the minimum wage to $15. After add-ons, voters are asked to agree or disagree with a series of statements about increasing the minimum wage to $15. These statements mimic statements made by those in support and opposition to increasing the minimum wage to $15.

Agree/Disagree Statements
Raising the minimum wage ensures more families can make ends meet and get ahead Increasing the minimum wage is the right thing to do If workers in Seattle earn higher wages, our entire community will benefit The current minimum wage is too low A higher minimum wage helps local businesses because more workers making more means they will have money to spend Raising the minimum wage is about putting public good ahead of corporate greed With rising income inequality, raising the minimum wage is a simple issue of fairness Increasing the minimum wage will hurt local small, minority owned, and family owned businesses Increasing min wage to $15 will hurt consumers, will lead to price increases on food & a wide range of other products people can't avoid buying Raising the minimum wage so drastically here in Seattle will result in too many unintended consequences Raising min wage this much will be a job killer & cause many businesses to leave Seattle, & consumers to look for lower prices outside Seattle People earn higher wages thru skills, education & experience. Artificially high min wage forces biz to overpay those who don't have skills & exprnc

82% 79% 75% 75% 71% 69% 68% 51% 45% 43% 40% 38%
Agree

13% 15% 17% 18% 21% 22% 24% 36% 46% 41% 50% 53%
Disagree

Following these two sections, voters are re-asked the initial question: Id like to ask again, do you (support/oppose) setting Seattles minimum wage at $15 an hour? Overall support is statistically unchanged, but the intensity of support increases (From 35% to 40% Strongly Support).

Increased Support Intensity for $15

Initial After add-ons & Agree/Disagree

35% 40%
Strongly Support

33% 29%
Somewhat Support

11% 10%

14% 15%
Strongly Oppose

Somewhat Oppose

Exemptions to a $15 minimum wage are far less popular than $15 alone or $15 with the potential add-ons. While expanding minimum wage legislation to include other worker benefits has broad support, elements narrowing the minimum wage such as applying it only to specific industries or counting tips towards the $15 minimum wage are much less popular, with each of them polling well under 50% and generating more opposition than support.

Additional Elements
Reducing the City's B&O Tax in half (to offset $15) $15 minimum wage would apply to specific Industries only Tips would be counted towards the $15 minimum wage

11% 11% 17%

16% 20% 25%

Somewhat Support

19% 23% 19%

Strongly Oppose

35% 33% 25%

Somewhat Oppose

Strongly Support

Likelihood to Support $15 if...

Helping small businesses afford $15 minimum wage by giving them a taxbreak Allow employers to count other forms of payment like bonuses, profit sharing, or retirement contributions toward the minimum wage Exempt non-profits, charities, and human service organizations Only businesses & franchises where the parent company makes more than $50M/year in revenue pay $15 Only businesses that make more than $1M/year in revenue pay $15 Only businesses that make more than $10M/year in revenue pay $15

39% 19% 30% 20% 25% 22% 23% 18% 24% 17% 25%

32%

9% 10% 18% 20% 19% 17% 17% 24% 18% 24% 23% 16%
Much Less Likely

Much More Likely

Somewhat More Likely

Somewhat Less Likely

The only concept idea in this better which gets a majority of voters to say they would be more likely to support is tax breaks for small business. All other proposals are under 50%.

For questions please contact: Sage Wilson, Working Washington, (206) 227-6014 sage@workingwa.org Dave Freiboth, MKCCLC, 206-818-5222, david@mlkclc.org Tom Geiger, UFCW21, (206)436-6549, tgeiger@ufcw21.org Andrew Thibault, EMC Research, (206) 204-8031, Andrew@emcresearch.com Ian Stewart, EMC Research, (206) 204-8032, ian@emcresearch.com