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Latin America PV: Lessons Learned and Strategies for Success!

!

January 23, 2014!

Speaker:!

Adam James! Solar Analyst, GTM Research! Moderator:!

Shayle Kann! SVP of Research, GTM Research!

About GTM Research!

GTM Research, a division of Greentech Media, provides critical and timely market analysis in the form of research reports, data services, advisory services and strategic consulting. GTM Research's analysis also underpins Greentech Media's webinars and live events. !

REPORTS!

DATA SERVICES!

CONSULTING!

About the Latin America PV Playbook!

The Latin America PV Playbook explores the budding Latin American PV Market by country" ! The Playbook has three distinct deliverables: the Solar Essentials Report, the Quarterly Market Update, and the Project Database.!

Solar Essentials Report!

! !

60 slides, delivered annually! Fundamentals, demand drivers and opportunities!

! Quarterly Market Update!

! !

~65 slides, delivered quarterly! Market history, competitive landscape, forecasts!

! Project Database!
! ! Excel workbook, delivered quarterly! 400 megawatt-scale projects and growing!

Latin America PV in the Global Context!

! Global PV demand is becoming more di#used!
! Latin America region has several markets with raised proles! ! Will be 2% of global demand over the next 4 years!

! Global PV demand is still mostly incentive-driven, but companies should pay attention to emerging, unsubsidized markets!
! Will play a larger role in coming years ! ! A chance to get experience under conditions that will characterize future markets!

! GTM Research is using the Latin America PV Playbook to help companies sort through announcements and get clear view of market direction and opportunities!

Overview of Latin America PV Opportunities!

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Moderate Demand !

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Weak/No Demand !

5 year time horizon!

Mexico: Market Dynamics!

DG!

$! Assessment: Steady growth! $! Drivers: High insolation; DAC rates; Net-metering! $! Expect/Consider: Expanded role for nancing!

SPPP!

$! Assessment: Growth then plateau! $! Drivers: High marginal prices; Forward curve visibility; IDB nancing! $! Expect/Consider: Chill from Energy Reform; Competition against self-supply model!

$! Assessment: Rapid growth! $! Drivers: Insolation arbitrage; DAC rates; Energy Bank! Self-Supply! $! Expect/Consider: New business models; Long sales cycle!

IPP!

$! Assessment: Low growth! $! Drivers: Carbon Target Legislation! $! Expect/Consider: Mostly quiet; Energy Reform may spark'

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Mexico: Pipeline and Key Players!

Leading Developers!

1Q14 Mexico PV Capacity (MW)!

41.2!

Operational Capacity!
Martifer/Gauss! CFE! ABB! Saferay! Sol de Insurgentes! Grupotec! Capo/Iberdrola! 30 MW! he6 MW! 1.2 MW! 30 MW! 28.6! 27.5 MW! 29.8 MW! 30 MW!

Capacity Under Construction!

60!

[VALUE]!
Operational! Approved! Under Construction!

Sonora Energy Group!

Leading Installers! Enercity! NuuPower!

Component Supply! Solartec! Jinko!

Kyocera, Siliken, Panasonic!

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Mexico Pipeline Map!

Brazil: Market Dynamics!

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Brazil: Pipeline and Key Players!

1Q14 Brazil Capacity (MW)!
Leading Developers! Operational Capacity!
MPX!
122!
17.2!

6 MW! 2.6 MW! 3.3 MW! 1.8! 30 MW! 29 MW! 29 MW! 22! 11 MW!

Cemig! New Generation Power! Cemig! Sowitec! Sun Premier Holding!

332!

Capacity Under Construction!

Tenders in Pernambuco Auction!

Kroma Energia! Cone Concierge! Enel Green Power!

Operational! Under Construction! Cleared in State Auction!

Leading Installers!
SS Solar; SolarTerra; Solar Brazil!

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Chile: Market Dynamics!

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Chile: Pipeline and Key Players!

1Q14 Chile Capacity (MW) !
6.4!

Leading Developers! Operational Capacity! E-CL! SolaireDirect! Juwi! Saferay! SunEdison! Selray! 2 MW! 1.2 MW! 1.2 MW! 135 MW! 100 MW! 31.5 MW! 70 MW! 25 MW!

Capacity Under Construction!

Operational! Under Construction!

402!

Solventus! SolarPack!

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Thank You!!
Questions? ! Contact freedman@gtmresearch.com! ! To learn more about the Latin America PV Playbook, visit: ! http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/latin-america-pvplaybook!