Assessments of Effect of Land-use change in Groundwater Storage

By
Dr. Madhav Narayan Shrestha
GPO Box # 3610, Kathmandu, Nepal
Email: mnshrestha@mail.com

Abstract: Assessment of effects due to land use change in groundwater storage is performed in
Kathmandu Valley basin of 651 km2. Effect of land use change is found to be more in groundwater
than surface water. Increased impervious area due to land use change has been major factor in
contributing to decreased infiltration. The ground water storage is depleting due to fact that the
extraction of groundwater to fulfill the demand of rapidly growth urbanization with constant
surface water available and portion of the water infiltrating for groundwater storage is reduced due
to increase in imperviousness.

Key words: Land use change, groundwater storage and water balance
Introduction

Major changes in land-use have occurred locally, regionally and globally over the last century.
These will continue in the future too. The impact of urbanization on groundwater has a major
concern to most urban area over past few decades, and in particular, to those involved in
groundwater quantity and qualitative studies. Increased impervious area has been major factor in
contributing to decreased infiltration, which results in decreasing groundwater storage. The impact
of urbanization on groundwater and its improvement depends to a great extent not only on the
level of urbanization but on the nature of urbanization as well. Thus, land –use changes has to be
assessed properly. Large pressure of growing pollution, increased demands for food, fodder and
fuel combined with industrial activities have essentially led to rapid change in land use purpose
patterns in developing countries. Since the beginning of human civilization, mankind has lived in
close relationship with nature. While mankind interdependence on environment is greater than that
of any other organism, his restless pursuit of progress, comfort and security has resulted in
increased stress on the environment, which led to land-use changes over a period of time. Planning
for development of natural resources without endangering the environment is a crucial issue and
the world is facing this task today. Information on the rate and kind of change in the land resources
is essential for proper planning, management and regularizing the use of such resources. Land use
information is needed in the analysis of environmental processes and problem. It is necessary to
understand the surrounding at present conditions and standards to be improved or remained at
current level. Information on existing land use, its spatial distribution and its changes are essential
prerequisite for planning and management Land-use planning and management strategies hold key
for development of region.

The Study area and its Groundwater condition

The system considered for the study is Kathmandu Valley basin. The valley is a roughly circular
bowl shaped intramontane basin, of 651 km2 and lies between 270 32' N to 270 49' N and 850 11'
E to 850 32' E. Bagmati river is the main river originates from north hill and flows towards south-
west and forms a typical centripetal drainage system. It passes through Chovar gorge, which is the
only outlet of the basin. The maximum and minimum temperatures are 350C and -2.50C
respectively. The rainfall occurs about 80% of the total annual rainfall during the months of June
to September. The average annual rainfall in the basin is 1600 mm. The basin is divided into 14
subbasins considering topography and is shown in Fig.1. The land use map for the year 1978 is
derived from topomaps using Arc/Info. Digital images for 1984 (Landsat TM), 1990 (Landsat TM)
and 1996 (Landsat TM) are used to derive the land use maps by digital image process. Visual
image interpretation of satellite data is carried out using an interpretation key generated through
field survey and verifications. The ground checks are made for confirming the land use units. The
spatial database containing information on land use, soil type, topography, hydraulic
characteristics and meteorological information is created using Arc/Info. The different land-use for
years 1978, 1984, 1990 and 1996 is shown in Table 1.The Thiessen Polygon map is derived using
available rain gauge stations. In the study area, the forest (mountainous) area is about 30% of the
total basin area having slope range from 20 to 30%, and remaining area (70%) is having average
slope of 0 to 4%.

Most of the recharge area of Kathmandu Valley is on the northern district. The most of the
rechargeable areas are confined in high flat plains and alluvial low plains. Due to slope, the rain
fall is converted quickly into runoff than in filtration through the ground and joining the nearest
tributaries. The central part of the valley is confined by thick black clay and its surface with cover
with impervious deposits. The rainfall hardly penetrates into the ground. Almost all the private
wells are operating in this area. The southern part is characterized by thick clay formation and low
permeable basal gravel.
 Table 1 Land use for Kathmandu Valley Basin (in km2) (Shrestha, 2001)

Land use Type 1978 1984 1990 1996

Forest 208.23 (32) 198.79 (31) 193.36 (30) 189.42(29)
Settlement (Total) 22.00 (3.4) 22.99 (3.5) 24.72 (3.8) 25.80 (4)
Urban 20.62 21.80 23.22 24.27
Rural 1.38 1.19 1.50 1.53
Agricultural Land 403.02 (62) 407.24 (63) 406.74 (63) 412.53 (63.3)
Water Bodies 13.67 (2.) 13.67 (2) 13.67 (2) 13.67(2)
Pasture Land 4.41 (0.6) 8.64 (1) 12.84 (1.9) 9.91 (1.5)
Total 651.33 651.33 651.33 651.33
(The percentage area is given inside bracket)
Groundwater use
Assessment of effects due to land use change in groundwater storage is performed in this study
from 1976 to 1989. The total of 87 deep tube wells were available in the basin, consisting of 38
NWSC (Nepal Water Supply Corporation) wells, 4 NWSC observation wells, 37 private wells and
8 gas wells (Department of Mines and Geology, Nepal). In 1988, 60 wells were operating wells
and 28 operating wells were belonging to NWSC, but the production of NWSC wells amount to
over 80% of the total extractions from all the tube wells in the valley. The total pumpage rate from
private wells as well as from gas wells is smaller than the NWSC wells. Shrestha (1990) had
shown annual variations of tubewell extraction in the Kathmandu Valley from 1975 to 1989 in
Fig.2. The trend of groundwater extraction volume from private wells and gas wells remains
almost constant during the last several years. But the production from NWSC wells is increasing
greatly.

Seasonal Fluctuation of Groundwater

JICA (1990) had used historical well hydrographs to assess the seasonal fluctuation of
groundwater level and recharge into main aquifer in the study of groundwater management of
Kathmandu Valley. Tank Model (Sugawara et al.1974) was used for simulation to develop the
relationship between rainfall and groundwater level. The annual fluctuations (maximum
groundwater level- minimum groundwater level) of long-term average at two sites were estimated.
In the study, they estimated mean annual fluctuation on well WHO 7A (Sundarijal) by taking
average over the period 1940-1986 as 1500mm and on well B12 (Maharajgunj) over 1947-1975 as
457 mm. Both wells are located in the northern part of the basin. The groundwater level has an
annual cycle. Maximum water level occurred in September and minimum at the end of June or
beginning of July.

The groundwater basin can be isolated from other groundwater bodies outsides the valley. The
recharge through outside the valley is assumed to be negligible. The groundwater levels have been
in nearly steady condition in the early stages of the 1980’s, because no large well was operated at
that time in the basin. JICA (1990) has developed relationship by trial-and-error method in order to
make the calculated groundwater level of the main aquifer to coincide with the observed one.
Extraction of groundwater by pumping has found to be increased since 1984 so it is worth to
assume that groundwater level was in a steady state condition on and before 1983. The parameter
for non-steady state simulation is storage coefficient, which indicates the sensitivity between
piezometric head and abstracted water volume. JICA (1990) has deduced storage coefficient as
0.00023 by pumping test in wells. The calculated drawdown was found to be very close with
observed one.

Assessment of Groundwater
A total of 12 deep tube wells are selected for study of groundwater assessment considering its
coverage and availability of drawdown data. These deep tube wells were constructed in similar
confined aquifer by providing minor screen layer from 60 to 80 m depth and major from 250 to
300 m depth. The Thiessen Polygons are created for these well points as shown in Fig.3. It is
assumed that drawdown calculated for the well points will be uniform within the polygon area. All
selected well points do not have observed drawdown data for the required period. Some wells have
observed drawdown data for years 1983, 1985, 1987 & 1989. The calculated drawdown data by
JICA (1990) are used here in this study, because calculated values were found very close with
observed drawdown in their study. The drawdown is taken as aerial average and multiplied by
Thiessen Polygon coefficient for all the wells points and summed up to calculate total equivalent
drawdown of the basin.
 The well name and Thiessen Polygon coefficients are presented in Table 2. Polygon Id no.8
(GK4) has largest polygon area of 89 km2 and polygon id no.4 has smallest area of 9.6 km2. The
effective rainfall (Pi) is deduced from the total rainfall. From the sensitivity analysis of initial
abstraction ratio λ , Shrestha (2001) found that the average values of λ could be taken as 0.25
for forestland, 0.20 for agricultural land, 0.22 for settlement and 0.12 for pastureland
irrespective of season and soil type. The total streamflow values measured in the outlet of the
basin are converted into equivalent streamflow depth (Ri). The total extraction from tubewells
over the basin is estimated by adding all extraction from private wells, NWSC wells and DMG
wells and expressed in equivalent depth (Qi). The yearly actual evapotranspiration values
(AETi) have been taken from Shrestha (1990). The maximum soil moisture content is taken as
225 mm (Shrestha, 1990)

Table 2 Representative area and Thiessen Coefficient of

well selected for groundwater assessment.
Well Name of Well Area in Thiessen Coeff.
Id km2
1 B6 53.48 0.091
2 B1 75.42 0.128
3 PH2 22.28 0.038
4 P36 9.60 0.016
5 P27 72.8 0.123
6 BB26 80.91 0.137
7 DK3 64.45 0.109
8 GK4 89.13 0.151
9 MH4 36.34 0.062
10 JW4 37.02 0.063
11 DMG4 28.11 0.048
12 WHO3A 20.57 0.035
Initial groundwater storage is assumed as 1000mm so that relative drawdown can be calculated.
The detailed water balance calculation is presented in Table 3. The estimated groundwater storage
(GWSi) is almost equal for the years 1984 and 1985 and hence no relative drawdown is found
during these periods. The drawdown for each well is estimated which is assumed to represent the
each polygon area.

Table 3 Annual water balance for Kathmandu Valley (in mm)

 Year Pi Ri Qi AETi Balance GWSi Cumulative Progressive
Drawdown Drawdown
1976 945 936 23 847 -860 140 860 -
1977 1269 691 26 875 -322 -183 1183 323
1978 1715 1160 60 838 -344 -526 1526 343
1979 1262 606 103 81`7 -264 -790 1790 264
1980 1376 675 129 842 -270 -1061 2061 271
1981 1116 662 181 793 -519 -1580 2580 519
1982 1081 768 204 824 -715 -2295 3295 715
1983 1418 958 195 828 -562 -2857 3857 562
1984 1513 980 173 781 -421 -3278 4278 421
1985 1722 821 212 701 -11 -3289 4289 11
1986 1555 1003 483 877 -807 -4097 5097 808
1987 1412 1010 646 862 -1106 -5202 6202 1105
1988 1493 1143 691 884 -1225 -6428 7428 1226
1989 1274 1194 859 867 -1647 -8074 9074 1826
1990 1511 1193

Drawdown due to Extraction of Groundwater

The net well field area of the study area had been found to be 6.16 km 2 (Shrestha, 1990). Thus the
equivalent radius of circle R of the area is 1400 m. For basin area of 590km2, the equivalent radius
of the basin re is found to be 13704 m. The representative transmissivity 'T' is taken as 500 m2 per
day (Shrestha, 1990). The drawdown values due to yearly equivalent uniformly distributed
withdrawal rate, W, for the study area are calculated using eqn.1.

∫r ln ( r )dr
R
re
s o =W
T

[ ( )+ ]
0
2 re
= W2RT ln R
1
2
(1)

The calculated drawdowns are only due to annual extraction of groundwater and presented in
Table 4. It is found that the drawdown due to annual extraction of groundwater increased by 2m in
the year 1984 compared to that of the year 1978. The drawdown values are found to be increased
by 4m in the year 1989 compared to that of the year 1984.
Table 4 Drawdown (Dd) (m) due to extraction of groundwater on the study area.

Year '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 ‘88 ‘89
Dd(m) 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.3 3.2 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.8 4.2 6.7 6.9 7.0
Analysis of Results

The groundwater storage is found to be decreasing sharply from 1985 onwards ass shown in Fig.4.
The balance of water available is abruptly changed from 1986 onward. An annual actual
evapotranspiration is found almost constant for the basin. The basin is facing continuous dropping
of groundwater storage. Due to slope, the rainfall is converted quickly to runoff than infiltrating
through the ground and joining the nearest tributaries. The groundwater storage is reducing by the
continuous extraction of groundwater. Some recharge areas, which are on the northern part of the
valley, is converting to urbanizing rapidly. On the other hand, extraction of groundwater is also
increasing to fulfill the demand of water. These are the main reason for rapid reduction of
groundwater storage.

The drawdown is calculated with reference to the year 1975. The initial condition of groundwater
level is taken as of the year 1972. The comparison of observed and computed drawdown is shown
in Fig.5. The drawdown depth observed in the basin is almost close to the observed drawdowns for
all observed years. From the drawdown curve (Fig 5), it can be seen that there are three distinct
trends of drawdown. The drawdown is in decreasing trend from 1977 to 1981, increasing trend
from 1981 to 1985 and sharp increasing from 1986 to 1989. The period from 1981 to 1985, the
registration for new house construction per year in Kathmandu Nagar Panchayat (now Kathmandu
Metropolitan) was found approximately three before 1980 (according to record collection from
Kathmandu Metropolitan City office). The surface water available is almost constant in the basin,
extraction of groundwater is fulfilling the extra demand of water due to urbanization. This may be
one of major reasons for increasing drawdown. The total drawdown is found to be increased by
2.75 m in year 1984 and 7.5 m in year 1989. When compared to that in the year 1978. The
drawdown due to groundwater extraction if found to be increased by 2 m in the year.1984 and 6 m
in the year 1989 when it is compared with the drawdown during 1978. Hence, the drawdown of
the 0.75m in the year 1984 and 1.5 m in the year 1989 can be attributed to the hydrological change
due to land-use modifications.

Conclusion
The groundwater storage is found to be decreasing and drawdown is found to be increasing due to
land-use change. Effect of land-use change is found to be more on groundwater than surface water.
It is found that the effect of land-use modification is more predominant in groundwater than on the
surface water. This is due to fact that the extraction of groundwater to fulfill the demand of growth
urbanization is increased and portion of water infiltrating for groundwater is reduced due to
increase in imperviousness.

References
Engineering Science, Inc. (1980), Operation of Third Project Wells, Final report on project
preparation facilities of Groundwater investigations, Nepal.

JICA (1990), Groundwater Management Project in the Kathmandu Valley, Final report, Nepal
Water Supply Corporation (NWSC).

Shrestha, Madhav Narayan (1990), Safe Yield of Groundwater Basin in Kathmandu Valley, M.E.
Thesis No. WA-90-32, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand.

Shrestha, Madhav Narayan (2001), Assessment of Hydrological Changes due to Land use
modifications, Ph.D. Thesis, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, India.

Sugawara, M., E. Ozaki, I.Watanabe, and Y. Katsuyama (1974), Tank Model and its application to
Bird Creek, Wallambi Book Bikin River, Kiysu River, Sunaga River and Nam Mune, Research
Notes No. 11, National Research for Disaster Prevention, Tokyo, Japan.
Fig.3. Thiessen Polygons for Representing Tube wells
 3500
C a lc u la te d b y W a t e r B a la n c e M o d e l
O b s e rv e d

3000

2500
D ra w d o w n (m m )

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Year

Fig. 5. Comparison of Drawdown between Computed and Observed Values

 1000

500

0
G ro u n d w a te r S to ra g e (m m )

-5 0 0

-1 0 0 0

-1 5 0 0

-2 0 0 0

-2 5 0 0
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

Year

Fig. 4. Trend of Depletion of Groundwater Storage

 G r o u n d w a te r A b s tr a c tio n
N W S C T u b e w e ll
50 P r iv a t e T u b e w e ll
D M G T u b e w e ll
A b s tr a c tio n fr o m T u b e w e ll (x 1 0 0 0 ) c u b ic m e te r /d a y

40

30

20

10

0
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989

Year

Fig.2. Total Groundwater Extraction (1975-1989) from Tubewell

 Vishnumati
Bagmati
Dhobikhola
(77.3)
(50.6)
(56.8)
Manohara
(74.9)
Raniban
(34.3)
Khasyang
(8.4)
khusung
Balkhu
Gakhukhusi
(19.7)
Tabyakhusi
(50.4)
(49.2)
Gundu
Dakshinkali
(15.6)
Godavari
(61.0)
(40.8)
Kodkhu
(49.6)

Nakhu
(62.8)

( ) Area of Subbasin in Sq. Km

Fig.1. Subbasin Drainage area of Kathmandu Valley Basin

Nakhu ( )Area of Subbasin in sq.km

(62.8)