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Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/agrformet

Modeling long-term soil carbon dynamics and sequestration potential in

semi-arid agro-ecosystems
Zhongkui Luo a , Enli Wang a,∗ , Osbert J. Sun b , Chris J. Smith a , Mervyn E. Probert c
a
CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
b
MOE Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Conservation and Institute of Forestry and Climate Change Research, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
c
CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Long-term soil carbon (C) dynamics in agro-ecosystems is controlled by interactions of climate, soil and
Received 9 December 2010 agronomic management. A modeling approach is a useful tool to understand the interactions, especially
Received in revised form 20 May 2011 over long climatic sequences. In this paper, we examine the performance of the Agricultural Production
Accepted 19 June 2011
Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to predict the long-term soil C dynamics under various agricultural practices
at four semi-arid sites across the wheat-belt of eastern Australia. We further assessed the underlying
Keywords:
factors that regulate soil C dynamics in the top 30 cm of soil through scenario analysis using the vali-
APSIM
dated model. The results show that APSIM is able to predict aboveground biomass production and soil
Agricultural management
Carbon sequestration
C dynamics at the study sites. Scenario analyses indicate that nitrogen (N) fertilization combined with
Climate residue retention (SR) has the potential to significantly slow or reverse the loss of C from agricultural
Soil nitrogen stress soils. Optimal N fertilization (Nopt ) and 100% SR, increased soil C by 13%, 46% and 45% at Warra, Wagga
Soil water stress Wagga and Tarelee, respectively. Continuous lucerne pasture was the most efficient strategy to accumu-
Simulation late soil C, resulting in increases of 49%, 57% and 50% at Warra, Wagga Wagga and Tarlee, respectively. In
contrast, soil C decreases regardless of agricultural practices as a result of cultivation of natural soils at
the Brigalow site. Soil C input, proportional to the amount of retained residue, is a significant predictor of
soil C change. At each site, water and nitrogen availability and their interaction, explain more than 59%
of the variation in soil C. Across the four sites, mean air temperature has significant (P < 0.05) effects on
soil C change. There was greater soil C loss at sites with higher temperature. Our simulations suggest that
detailed information on agricultural practices, land use history and local environmental conditions must
be explicitly specified to be able to make plausible predictions of the soil C balance in agro-ecosystems
at different agro-ecological scales.
Crown Copyright © 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction The modeling of agricultural systems (using validated crop and

Cultivation of natural ecosystems has caused significant losses
of soil carbon (C) (Mann, 1986; Davidson and Ackerman, 1993). The
adoption of conservation agricultural practices [CAPs, e.g., increas-
ing cropping frequency, residue retention (SR) and no-tillage (NT)]
has been suggested to be effective in stimulating C sequestration in
agricultural soils, thereby mitigating climate change and preserv-
ing soil health for sustainable agricultural production (Lal, 2004,
2009; Smith, 2004). Soil C balance in agro-ecosystems is affected
by agricultural practices, as well as edaphic and climatic conditions.
The complex interaction between agricultural practices and envi-
ronmental conditions hinders our ability to accurately predict the
C balance and its changes over time and space.
∗ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: enli.wang@csiro.au (E. Wang).
soil models) enables the exploration of the interactions between
climate, edaphic conditions and agricultural practices as they reg-
ulate soil C dynamics. Modeling methods have been widely used to
simulate the effects of agricultural management on soil C dynam-
ics in agro-ecosystems from plot (Lugato and Berti, 2008; Liu et al.,
2009; Lehuger et al., 2010; Sus et al., 2010; Wattenbach et al.,
2010) to continental scales (Li et al., 2003; Grace et al., 2006;
Ogle et al., 2010). For modeling studies to be credible in predicting
soil C dynamics, detailed information on agricultural management,
including cropping system, fertilizer application and tillage inten-
sity, is required (Smith et al., 1997; Vuichard et al., 2008; Ogle
et al., 2010). For example, Ogle et al. (2010) applied the CEN-
TURY model to simulate soil C changes in US croplands during the
1990s, and showed that the plot scale uncertainties were as large
as ±739% from 1990 to 1995, and ±674% from 1995 to 2000. The
large uncertainty in the predictions results from limited informa-
tion for model initialization and parameterization. After comparing
the performance of four process-based biophysical models, i.e.,

0168-1923/$ – see front matter. Crown Copyright © 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.06.011
 Author's personal copy
1530 Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544
DNDC, ORCHIDEE-STICS, CERES-EGC and SPA, in simulating the car-
bon balance at five European croplands, Wattenbach et al. (2010)
concluded that data sources with high temporal resolution and
detailed management information could markedly improve the
prediction accuracy. In addition to the information required for
model parameterization, it is essential to validate model perfor-
mance for simulation of soil C changes induced by spatial and
temporal variations in climatic and edaphic conditions as well as
management regimes. The same agricultural practices can have dif-
ferent impacts on the soil C balance depending on local edaphic
and climatic conditions (Koerber et al., 2009; Luo et al., 2010b).
For example, Luo et al. (2010b) synthesized the Australian data on
the effects of CAPs on soil C change and found that soil C content
increased by 26% on Kandosol (Australian soil classification; Isbell,
2002) after adoption of SR and NT, which was significantly higher
than the 6.31% and 11.82% increase on Sodosol and Chromosol. It is
critical for the models to be able to capture the geographical varia-
tion in soil C dynamics induced by the interaction of management
regimes and environmental variability.
The agricultural production systems model APSIM (Keating
et al., 2003) has been developed for simulation of plant and soil pro-
cesses by allowing flexible specification of management options,
and has been widely used in Australia to study productivity, nutri-
ent cycling and environmental impacts of farming systems as
influenced by climate variability, management interventions and
future climate change (van Ittersum et al., 2003; Wang et al., 2009).
It provides the functionality needed to predict soil C change as
affected by environmental and management. Recently, Huth et al.
(2010) and Thorburn et al. (2010) found that APSIM performed
well in predicting greenhouse gas emissions (N2 O and CO2 ) from
agricultural systems under different management at a semi-arid,
subtropical site, Brigalow, in Australia. Huth et al. (2010) also indi-
cated that the model could reasonably simulate soil C dynamics in
the top 0–30 cm of the soil profile. However, there remains a lack
of studies to test the reliability of the APSIM model to predict soil
C dynamics across different agro-ecosystems. Validation is critical
before using the model to explore management strategies aimed
to sequester soil C, to mitigate climate change, and to maintain soil
health.
Fertilizer application, residue and tillage management, and
the type of cropping systems are the main possible agricultural
management practices determining soil C content in Australian
semi-arid agro-ecosystems. Firstly, fertilizer applications increase
crop productivity in areas with nutrient deficiency, thus have
the potential to increase soil C content through increased root
biomass and residue return. However, the response to fertiliza-
tion depends on whether water and/or nutrients are limiting plant
growth. Fertilizer has also been shown to increase the decomposi-
tion of crop residues and soil C (Neff et al., 2002; Khan et al., 2007),
off-setting the possible increase in C inputs by crop residues. Sec-
ondly, residue management determines the relative soil C input,
and tillage practice changes the environment for decomposition of
both soil C and surface residues. The decomposition of crop residues
and roots is largely regulated by local climate conditions (rainfall
and temperature), soil water content and nutrient availability for
microorganisms responsible for decomposition. Moreover, incor-
porated crop residues by tillage supply the energy and nutrients
for the growth of soil microbes thereby stimulating the decompo-
sition of old soil organic C (Fontaine et al., 2007). Consequently,
to maintain the soil C status, the amount of residue needed to
be retained may be differ significantly in each agro-ecosystem
because of differences in the local environmental conditions and
initial soil C content. Thirdly, cropping systems influence the total
production of above and below ground biomass and the qual-
ity of C substrate. An increase in land cover achieved by either
increasing cropping frequency or growing perennial plants may
further increase the biomass production, change the soil condi-
tions and affect the decomposition process. Many studies suggested
that increasing crop complexity (mixing or rotating different types
of crops) has the potential to increase the C content of agricul-
tural soils (West and Post, 2002; Luo et al., 2010b). To analyze all
these interactions, an experimental approach becomes impracti-
cal. The APSIM model is able to mimic a combination of different
agricultural management practices and provides a flexible way
to investigate the impact of possible management options on C
sequestration in agricultural soils. However, there is still a lack
of study on the performance of the APSIM model in simulating
long-term soil C dynamics across different climatic zones, partic-
ularly under various fertilization applications, residue and tillage
management, and cropping systems. The credibility of APSIM is
crucial for predicting and managing soil C balance in agricultural
soils under possible shift of management practices.
In this study, we firstly examined the performance of APSIM
in predicting long-term C dynamics under contrasting environ-
mental conditions and management regimes, using experimental
data from four sites across the eastern Australian wheat-belt. Then,
the potential C sink capacity of agricultural soils under different
fertilizer applications, residue and tillage management, and crop
systems was predicted based on scenario analysis using the same
initial soil and water parameters as in the validation process. Lastly,
we assumed that soil water and N availability, the main limitations
of crop growth for potential C assimilation in agro-ecosystems, are
the key factors regulating soil C dynamics and can be related to
the prediction of soil C changes as simulated by the APSIM model.
The effects of the soil N and water availability on the soil C dynam-
ics were analyzed based on the modeling output from simulation
scenarios at different locations.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Experimental sites and data collection
Four sites were selected from the eastern Australian wheat belt.
They are Brigalow, Warra, Wagga Wagga and Tarlee (Fig. 1).
2.1.1. Brigalow
The crop and soil data for this study site were obtained from
Skjemstad et al. (2004) and Cowie et al. (2007). This site is located
near Theodore, Queensland, Australia (24.83◦ S, 149.78◦ E). It has
a semi-arid, subtropical climate, with summer-dominant rainfall.
Mean annual temperature was 21.4 ◦ C, and mean annual rainfall
was 618 mm. The original land use was native forest dominated
by Acacia harpophylla (Brigalow). In 1982, the site was cleared and
converted to cropland. After a 2-year fallow period, sorghum (first
crop), was planted in the summer of 1984, followed then by 9
years of wheat crops until 1994, with a fallow year in 1993. After
1994, sorghum and wheat were planted in alternate years and is
referred to as a sorghum–wheat rotation. During the study period
(1982–2000), residue was retained and no fertilizer was applied.
The soil was occasionally tilled to 10 or 20 cm depth before crop
sowing or after harvest. Triplicate soil samples to 30 cm depth
(10 cm increments) were collected before clearing in 1982 and
again in 1984, 1986, 1988, 1994 and 2000. Total dry matter and
grain yield were measured each year from 1982 to 1999. More
detailed information on experimental design, soil sampling strat-
egy, land use, soil conditions, management and measurements at
this site are given in Skjemstad et al. (2004) and Cowie et al. (2007).
2.1.2. Warra
Data for this site were obtained from Dalal et al. (1995). The
site is located at Warra, Queenland, Australia (26.93◦ S, 150.92◦ E).
It has a subtropical climate, with mean annual temperature of
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Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544
Fig. 1. Location of the four studied sites, Brigalow, Warra, Wagga Wagga and Tarlee in Australia.
20.7 ◦ C, and with summer-dominant rainfall and a mean annual
rainfall of 685 mm. The site has been used for cereal produc-
tion since 1935. In 1986, seventeen treatments, each with four
replicates, were established, covering combinations of cropping
systems, fertilization and tillage management. A subset of four of
the treatments from 1986 to 1995 was selected for this study. The
treatments selected were lucerne (2 years)–wheat (1 year) rota-
tion (LW, the first crop was lucerne), wheat (1 year)–lucerne (2
years) rotation (WL, the first crop being wheat), continuous wheat
with conventional tillage (WCT) and continuous wheat with no-
tillage (WNT). For all selected treatments, no fertilizer was applied
and residue was retained. In the WCT treatment, the soil was
cultivated to 10 cm. Five soil samples to a depth of 10 cm were
collected from each replicate in each year for analyzing soil C and
other soil properties. More detailed information on experimental
design, soil sampling strategy, land use, soil conditions, manage-
ment and measurements at this site can be found in Dalal et al.
(1995).
2.1.3. Wagga Wagga
The data for this site was from the SATWAGL(Stable Agriculture
Through Wheat and Grain Legumes) trial conducted by staff of the
Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, NSW Department of Primary
Industries. This site was located at the Wagga Wagga Agricultural
Institute, New South Wales, Australia (35.11◦ S, 147.37◦ E). It has
a temperate climate with uniform rainfall distribution across the
year. Mean annual temperature was 15.9 ◦ C and mean annual rain-
fall was 529 mm. The site was maintained as annual pasture for 19
years from 1960 to 1978, except for a crop of lupins in 1975 and oats
in 1976. A rotation/tillage/residue management experiment with
16 treatments was started in 1979. Two treatments, continuous
wheat with (100 kg N ha−1 yr−1 ) and without nitrogen (N) fertil-
izer, were selected for this study. In both treatments, residue was
1531
burned and the soil was cultivated to a depth of 10 cm. There were
six replicates for each treatment. Soil samples, 0–10 and 10–20 cm
were collected in each replicate for analyzing total soil organic C
and other soil properties since 1979. Available data from 1979 to
2002 were used in this study. More detailed information on exper-
imental design, soil sampling strategy, land use, soil conditions,
management and measurements at this site can be found in Heenan
et al. (1994, 1995).
2.1.4. Tarlee
This site was located near Tarlee, South Australia (34.27◦ S,
138.77◦ E). It has a temperate climate with a winter-dominant
rainfall pattern (dry and hot summer), with mean annual tem-
perature of 16.8 ◦ C and mean annual rainfall of 467 mm. Three
cropping systems, continuous wheat (CW), fallow-wheat (FW) and
a wheat–pasture (WP) rotation were established on previously
farmed land in 1977. For this study, we selected the CW and FW sys-
tems using data from 1979 to 1996. For both systems, about 40% of
the residue was removed before sowing the next crop, except that
about 80% of the residue was removed after harvesting in 1988 and
1989 in the CW treatment, and in 1989 in the FW treatment. No
fertilizer and NT were applied. Sowing date, crop yield and total
aboveground biomass were recorded each year. Soil samples were
analyzed for total soil organic C in the 0–30 cm soil layer in 1979,
1985 and 1996. More detailed information on experimental design,
soil sampling strategy, land use, soil conditions, management and
measurements at this site can be found in Skjemstad et al. (2004).
2.2. The APSIM model
The Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator APSIM v7.0
(Keating et al., 2003) was used for the simulation of crop growth and
soil C dynamics. The model has been validated in Australia under
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1532 Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544
a wide range of conditions, and performs well in simulating crop
growth, soil water dynamics, and soil N transformation (Keating
et al., 2003; Wang et al., 2003).
In APSIM, there are two modules, SoilN and SurfaceOM that con-
trol carbon transformation in the soil and on the soil surface. The
SoilN module describes the dynamics of both C and N in the soil.
Like other biogeochemical models, such as CENTURY (Parton et al.,
1987) and RothC (Jenkinson, 1990), the module SoilN divides soil
organic matter into three conceptual pools: fresh organic matter
(FOM), a more active carbon pool (BIOM), and a humic pool (HUM).
The FOM pool represents the fresh organic matter, and includes
dead roots and incorporated residues. It is split into three sub-pools,
that is, carbohydrate-like (CH), cellulose-like (CL) and lignin-like
(LIG). The BIOM pool notionally represents the more labile, soil
microbial biomass and microbial products. HUM comprises the rest
of the soil organic matter, and part of the HUM pool is considered
to be recalcitrant to decomposition (Inert C). Each pool or sub-pool
has a specific maximum decomposition rate. The actual decompo-
sition rate is determined by the maximum rate modified by a soil
temperature and a water factor, and an additional C:N ratio factor
for the three FOM sub-pools. The flows between different pools are
calculated in terms of C. The corresponding N flows are determined
based on the C:N ratio of the receiving pool. The C:N ratios of var-
ious pools are assumed to be constant through time and specified
as inputs.
SurfaceOM simulates the decomposition and carbon input to the
soil from the surface residue. Briefly, aboveground material can be
removed from the system (e.g., through burning or baling), incor-
porated into soil (e.g., through tillage), or decomposed. Removal of
residue indicates a direct C loss from the system. Organic materials
incorporated through tillage are treated as FOM, and take part in the
carbon processes in SoilN module. The proportion and the tillage
depth of the incorporated residues can be specified. The incorpo-
rated residues are considered to be uniformly distributed through
the soil to the tillage depth. Material remaining on the soil sur-
face decomposes, resulting in loss of some C as CO2 and transfer of
the remaining C to soil BIOM and HUM pools (SoilN module). Each
type of surface material has a specific maximum decomposition
rate. The actual decomposition rate is the maximum rate modified
by temperature, water, C:N ratio and contact factor (the degree of
contacting with soil). The detailed processes in this module and its
performance in simulating surface organic matter decomposition
are described in Thorburn et al. (2001).
2.3. Model parameterization and validation
APSIM needs daily weather data as inputs, including radi-
ation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and rainfall.
These data were obtained from SILO Patched Point Dataset
(http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/). The weather station
name and number selected for the four study sites are: Brigalow
Research Station, number 35149 at Brigalow; Warra Post Office,
number 41117 at Warra; Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, num-
ber 73127 at Wagga Wagga; Tarlee, number 23319 at Tarlee.
The model requires parameters that describe the soil properties,
initial soil water and nutrient conditions. Soil hydraulic parameters
include saturated water content (SAT), drained upper limit (DUL),
15 bar lower limit (LL15), lower limit of crop water extraction (LL;
Fig. 2). DUL and LL can be derived from the long-term soil mois-
ture measurements at each site using the wettest and driest soil
water content, respectively. LL15 can be measured from soil sam-
ples and SAT can be estimated as total porosity less 0.05 to correct
for entrapped air when the soil was fully wet (Probert et al., 1998).
In the current study, all these values were obtained from the lit-
erature or based on information through personal communication
(Dalal et al., 2004; Probert et al., 2005; Huth et al., 2010). Other
initial soil parameters are shown in Table 1.
Based on measured data on total soil organic C content in each
layer in the 0–30 cm soil profile, soil C contents in the layers were
partitioned into the four pools needed for APSIM, i.e., FOM, BIOM,
HUM and Inert C (Probert et al., 1998). The assumptions used to
fractionate the total soil C were: (i) total soil organic C decreases
exponentially with soil depth, with most of the soil C remain in
the top 0.2–0.3 m soil (Jobbagy and Jackson, 2000; Ehleringer et al.,
2000); (ii) the ratio of BIOM to HUM is no greater than 0.05 in the
surface soil; and decreases with soil depth, with an average of 0.026
along the soil profile (Zimmermann et al., 2007); (iii) higher propor-
tion of total soil C is recalcitrant to decomposition in deeper soils,
and the absolute amount of Inert C remains constant along the soil
profile; (iv) most of the FOM are crop roots and estimated by local
aboveground biomass production of crops, they are present in the
upper layers of soil and represent a small proportion of total soil C in
long-term cultivated soils. However, in newly cultivated soils (i.e.,
clearing of natural vegetation, e.g., Brigalow site), a greater propor-
tion of FOM was specified to match the sharp decline of soil C in the
first several years after cultivation (Davidson and Ackerman, 1993;
Huth et al., 2010; Luo et al., 2010b). In this study, we set the initial
specific proportions of soil C pools (i.e., the proportion of each soil
C pool used in APSIM) according to the method given by Probert
et al. (1998) and Probert (2005) for simulating cropping systems.
At the Brigalow site, we followed the initialization processes in the
newly cleared brigalow forest described by Huth et al. (2010).
The model was run for the selected study period at each study
site. Agricultural management, that including sowing date, tillage
and fertilizer application, was set according to historical manage-
ment records and information given in the relevant publications. In
the studied systems, C assimilation by crops was the only source of
soil C input (that is, no organic amendments were applied). In all the
experiments, weed was controlled by tillage or herbicides and thus
was excluded in the simulation. Crop cultivar parameters that con-
trol phenological phases were adjusted to match the simulated and
observed maturity dates. Harvest index (the harvested proportion
of the total aboveground biomass) was calibrated to reach agree-
ment between the observed and simulated yield. Simulated daily
soil C in different soil layers, crop yield and aboveground biomass
were produced as outputs and compared with the observed data.
2.4. Scenario analysis
After testing the performance of APSIM to simulate the long-
term soil C dynamics using observed data at the four sites, we
assessed the sensitivity of the soil C dynamics to four agricul-
tural management scenarios, i.e., fertilizer application (validated at
Wagga Wagga), residue and tillage management (validated at Tar-
lee), and cropping systems (validated at Brigalow and Warra). This
sensitivity analysis aimed to identify optimal agricultural practices
to sequester C and assess the potential of C sequestration under
different agricultural systems. For each scenario, we used the same
crop management parameters such as cultivar and sowing rule,
and initial soil and water parameters as that used in the model
validation (Table 1 and Fig. 2), and ran the model for 120 years
from 1889 to 2008. The effects of the possible change of crop cul-
tivars and future climate were not considered in this simulation.
The trend of soil C change during the 120-year simulation was ana-
lyzed to identify the time when soil C reached equilibrium and the
corresponding soil C change (i.e., the potential of C sequestration).
2.4.1. Scenario 1: fertilization
At the four study sites, we modeled the effects of five levels
of N fertilizer applications [0 (N0), 50 (N50), 100 (N100), 150
(N150) and 200 kg N ha−1 (N200)] on soil C dynamics with residue
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Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544 1533

Fig. 2. Soil hydraulic parameters at (A) Brigalow, (B) Warra, (C) Wagga Wagga and (D) Tarlee. SAT, saturation water content; DUL, drained upper limit; LL15, 15 bar lower
limit; LL, lower limit of crop water extraction. Crop can use the soil water when the soil water content is in the grey region. LL is equal to LL15 at Warra and Wagga Wagga
resulting in the mergence of the two lines.

retention. 25 kg N ha−1 was applied at sowing and the remainder
at stem elongation stage as a top-dressing. All these scenarios
were applied to a continuous wheat system. In the model, the crop
residue (stem plus leaf) after harvest was set to stay on the soil
surface, i.e., no standing residues.
treatment; CT). To assess the role of fertilization in regulating the
effects of residue and tillage management on soil C dynamics, the
zero N rate (N0) and optimal N application rate (Nopt ) (identified in
scenario 1) were applied using the same fertilization scheme.

2.4.3. Scenario 3: cropping systems

2.4.2. Scenario 2: residue and tillage management
The effects of residue retention at rates of 0 (complete residue
removal, R0), 25% (R25), 50% (R50), 75% (R75) and 100% (no residue
removal, R100), on soil C dynamics were simulated. As in scenario
1 with fertilization, the different rates of residue retention were
applied to a continuous wheat system. The residue after harvest
was removed according to the residue retention rate. The remaining
residue was placed on the soil surface (no-tillage, NT) or incorpo-
rated into the top 20 cm of soil after harvest (conventional tillage
We explored the effects of five cropping systems: wheat-fallow
(WF), continuous wheat (CW), wheat–chickpea rotation (WC, one
crop per year), wheat–lucerne rotation (WL, three years lucerne and
seven years wheat), and lucerne pasture (LP), on soil C dynamics.
Crop residue was treated as that in scenario 1. The Nopt identi-
fied in scenario 1 was applied to wheat using the split application
regime. A sub-scenario under N0 was also simulated. Performance
of the APSIM has been tested previously for simulations of growth of
chickpea (Robertson et al., 2002) and lucerne (Dolling et al., 2005).

Table 1
Site characteristics and initial soil C pools based on literature data and initial soil C measurements at Brigalow, Tarlee, Wagga Wagga and Warra in Australia.

Site Mean annual Annual rainfall Soil depth (m) Total PAWCa Initial soil C component (t ha−1 , 0–30 cm)
temperature (◦ C) (mm) (mm)
FOM BIOM HUM Inert C Total C

Brigalow 21.1 544 2.1 229.5 11.79 1.89 37.84 12.65 64.16
Warra 19.2 659 1.5 230 0.57 0.43 12.51 11.82 25.33
Wagga Wagga 15.9 538 1.6 176 0.57 0.59 14.70 18.15 34.01
Tarlee 16.8 474 1.2 108 0.31 0.83 25.47 13.30 39.91
a
PAWC, plant available water capacity.
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1534 Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544
2.5. Resolving controls on soil C dynamics within and among sites
Based on scenario analysis in Section 2.4, the model output was
used to examine the major factors that control soil C. We calculated
the average amount of retained residue per year during the 120-
year simulation for the different scenarios. Regression analysis was
used to examine the relationship between the amount of residue
retained and the change in soil C. The inherent assumption is that
soil water and N availability limit crop growth. In turn, it causes
variability in soil C change under different agricultural practices
and affects C output (through decomposition) and C input (through
crop production).
For soil water availability, we defined it as the ratio of supply by
soil to demand by, and focused on wheat because it is the dominant
crop in our simulations. The ratio of daily water supply to demand
(rsdw ) by wheat is calculated as (Eq. (1)):
ws
rsdw = , (1)
wd
where rsdw ranges from 0 to 1; ws and wd are the soil water supply
and potential water demand by crops, respectively. If ws ≥ wd or
wd = 0, then rsdw = 1, indicating that crop growth is not limited by
water. If rsdw = 0, there will be no water available for crop growth.
As water demand varies with the stage of crop development, we
calculated a weighted index (IW ) for soil water availability during
a crop growing season from sowing to harvesting (Eq. (2)):
n
rsdwi × wdi
IW = n
i=1
, (2)
wdi
i=1
where rsdwi and wdi are the rsdw and wd on the ith day of
n growth, respectively. As rsdw = 1 when ws ≥ wd , the term
crop
rsdwi × wdi must be smaller than the sum of ws (the total sup-
i=1
ply of soil water). The smaller the value of IW , the less the available
water for crop growth, and vice versa.
For soil N availability, an N concentration ratio (rN ) was calcu-
lated for the stover (stem plus leaf, Eq. (3)):
Nact − Nmin
rN = , (3)
Ncirt − Nmin
where Nmin is the minimum N concentration in stover for crop
growth, Nact is the actual N concentration in stover, and Ncirt is
the critical N concentration above which no increased crop growth
occurs. When rN = 0, no N is available for crop growth; when rN = 1, N
is sufficient for crop growth. When Nact < Nmin and Nact > Ncirt , rN = 0
and rN = 1, respectively.
Similar to IW , the weighted index IN in each season of wheat
growth was calculated according to crop N concentrations on the
ith day during wheat growth period. We classified IN into different
levels using an interval of 0.1, from IN = 0 to 1. Crop biomass produc-
tion is the primary source of soil C input. We assessed the effects
of IN on wheat biomass production. Because no additional water
was added in our scenarios, all scenarios at each site had the same
potential available water which was equal to rainfall. Crop water
stress increases as N availability increased by the addition of fertil-
izer. With the decreasing nitrogen availability (IN ), the relationship
between IW and wheat biomass production was analyzed to assess
the role of water availability in regulating wheat biomass. The vari-
ability of IW and wheat biomass was correspondingly calculated as
the range of 95% confidence interval for each level of IN . Regres-
sion analysis was applied to study (i) the relationship between the
amount of retained residue and soil C change and (ii) the relation-
ship between soil C change and IW , IN and their interaction under
various agricultural management scenarios at the four sites.
We calculated the change of soil C over the initial soil C content
of the 120-year simulation with each scenario at each of the four
sites. The effect of mean daily temperature (Tm ) and mean annual
rainfall (Rm ) on the relative change of soil C over the 120 years of
simulation was assessed using linear regression model. All these
analyses were applied either to the data of each case in each sce-
nario or to the data pooled together from all scenarios. All analyses
were performed using statistical and graphical software R 2.10.1 (R
Development Core Team, 2009).
3. Results
3.1. Model performance for simulating crop production and soil C
dynamics
In general, aboveground biomass and grain yield of the wheat
and sorghum were well simulated by the APSIM model (Fig. 3). For
lucerne at Warra, only the mean value of aboveground biomass
was available (3272 and 1931 kg ha−1 yr−1 in WL and LW, respec-
tively), which was comparable with modeled long-term average
of yearly lucerne biomass (4620 and 1915 kg ha−1 yr−1 in WL and
LW, respectively). At the four sites, the APSIM could explain more
than 50% of the variation of the observed aboveground biomass and
grain yield except in the CW treatment at Tarlee (Fig. 3).
The simulated trends of soil C change in different soil layers
agreed well with the observed data at the four study sites (Fig. 4).
At Brigalow, soil C declined rapidly in the top 10 cm soil layer during
the first 5 years after clearing of the native Brigalow forest (Fig. 4A).
Thereafter, the soil C kept declining at a slower rate. At Warra,
soil C generally remained stable in the top 10 cm soil layer under
the continuous wheat (CW) system, but tended to increase under
the lucerne–wheat (LW) rotation (Fig. 4B). Under CW with CT, the
simulation results showed a temporal increase in soil C after incor-
poration of crop residues followed by a decrease in soil C thereafter
until the residues of the next crop was again incorporated into the
soil. The soil C under the LW rotation systems showed greater vari-
ability. At Wagga Wagga, soil C gradually decreased in the top 10 cm
soil layer, but remained relatively stable in the 10–20 cm soil layer.
The application of 100 kg N ha−1 yr−1 seemed to have a negligible
impact on soil C as compared with the zero N application treatment
(Fig. 4C). At Tarlee, the loss in soil C was greater in the top 30 cm
soil layer under fallow-wheat system (FW) than under continuous
wheat (CW) system (Fig. 4D).
3.2. Scenario analyses
3.2.1. Scenario 1: fertilization
Increasing N application increased soil C at Warra, Wagga and
Tarlee until Nopt was reached (Figs. 5A and 6B–D). At the Brigalow
site, however, soil C decreased continuously, although the addition
on 50 kg N ha−1 yr−1 slowed the rate of decline. Higher N applica-
tions had no further effect (Fig. 6A). With N applications, in general,
soil C showed the largest increase in the first few years (<10 years),
and then the increase of soil C was gradually slowed down or soil C
even decreased after reaching the maximum level at Warra, Wagga
Wagga and Tarlee in some period (Fig. 6B–D). At the four sites, soil C
content did not reach the final equilibrium after the 120-year simu-
lation (Fig. 6). The Nopt for soil C sequestration was 50 kg N ha−1 yr−1
at Brigalow, 100 kg N ha−1 yr−1 at Warra and Wagga Wagga and
150 kg N ha−1 yr−1 at Tarlee (Fig. 5A and 6). Under optimal N addi-
tions, soil C increased by 4.89 t ha−1 (equivalent to 7.63% of the
initial soil C), 15.41 t ha−1 (61%), 24.57 t ha−1 (72%) and 25.16 t ha−1
(63%) in 120 years comparing with N0 at Brigalow, Warra, Wagga
Wagga and Tarlee, respectively.
3.2.2. Scenario 2: residue and tillage management
Soil C increased continuously for ∼30 years at Warra under Nopt
(N50), NT and 100% SR (Fig. 7). At Tarlee, soil C did not plateau until
the end of the simulation (120 years, Fig. 7). At Wagga Wagga, soil
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Fig. 3. Simulated and observed biomass and yield of wheat at four locations under different agricultural practices in Australia. There are two treatments at Tarlee [continuous
wheat (CW) and fallow-wheat (FW)] and Wagga Wagga [no-fertilization (N0) and 100 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (N100)]. The results for sorghum grown at the Brigalow site are also
shown (A). At Warra, the wheat results are shown because no data was collected for lcerne. Solid (–) and dashed (- - -) lines show the regression lines of the wheat and
sorghum at Brigalow, CW and FW treatments at Wagga Wagga, and N0 and N100 treatments at Tarlee, respectively. **P < 0.01; ***P < 0.001.

C kept relative stable after about 100 years simulation (Fig. 7). At
Brigalow, soil C decreased continuously during the 120-year simu-
lation. Under N0, an increase in SR rate reduced soil C loss regardless
of tillage types (Fig. 5B and D). However, the rates of decline in soil
C varied over the four sites. For example, increasing SR rate from
0 to 100% reduced soil C loss by 19.04 t ha−1 at Tarlee, but by only
1.81 t ha−1 at Warra under the CT scenarios. Under Nopt , returning
50% of the residue turned the soil into a C sink at Wagga Wagga and
Tarlee under both CT and NT scenarios (Fig. 5C and E). The point at
which the soil changes to become a C sink at Warra was a SR rate
of 75% under both tillage scenarios. However, it was not possible to
reverse the decline in soil C at Brigalow regardless of SR rates and
tillage types (Fig. 5C and E). Under the combination of Nopt , 100%
SR and CT (Fig. 5C), soil C content reached the highest level of 39.52,
28.61, 49.81 and 57.72 t ha−1 at Brigalow, Warra, Wagga Wagga and
Tarlee, respectively. These numbers are equivalent to 62, 113, 146
and 145% of the initial total soil C at the four sites, respectively. In
general, NT or CT had negligible effect on influencing the long-term
soil C change.
3.2.3. Scenario 3: cropping systems
The effect of cropping systems on soil C change is shown in Fig. 8.
Under the combination of Nopt , NT and R100, soil C loss at Brigalow
could not be reversed regardless of the cropping system. The rate
of soil C loss, however, was significantly reduced under LP com-
pared to WF (Fig. 8A). Under WC, WL and LP, in general, soil C
increased continuously at Wagga Wagga and Tarlee (Fig. 8C and
D). At Warra, however, soil C decreased after reaching the max-
imum level after about 90 years of simulation. In contrast, soil C
generally decreased or remained stable at the three sites under
treatments WF and CW. Soil C content decreased under WF, CW
and WC systems at the four sites under N0 (Fig. 5F). The excep-
tion to this trend was in treatment WL or LP where soil C content
increased at Warra, Wagga Wagga and Tarlee. Under Nopt , soil C
content increased in all the simulated cropping systems at Warra,
Wagga Wagga and Tarlee except treatment WF. However, large
variability in the size of the increase was observed across the three
sites (Fig. 5G). Soil C change in WC was comparable with that in
CW under N0, but CW accumulated more C than WC when Nopt
was applied. Compared to other scenarios, LP had the greatest soil
C content of approximately 50.91, 37.76, 53.30 and 60.02 t ha−1 at
Brigalow, Warra, Wagga Wagga and Tarlee, respectively, which was
79%, 149%, 157% and 150% of the initial total soil C at the four sites,
respectively.
3.3. Controls on soil C change
Changes in soil C were significantly (P < 0.001) and positively
correlated to the amount of retained residue under different
agricultural practices (Fig. 9). Because the amount of retained
residue was proportional to the crop biomass production, the
effect of soil water and nitrogen availability on biomass is shown
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1536 Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544

Fig. 4. Modeled and observed soil organic carbon in different soil layers in four locations under different agricultural practices in Australia. (A) Bristow, wheat–sorghum
rotation system with residue retention. (B) Warra, lucerne–wheat (LW) and wheat–lucerne (WL) rotation and continuous wheat (CW) with conventional tillage (CT) and
without tillage (NT). (C) Wagga Wagga, continuous wheat with residue burning and N applications of 0 (N0) and 100 kg ha−1 yr−1 (N100). (D) Tarlee, continuous wheat (CW)
and fallow-wheat (FW) with residue retention.

in Fig. 10. Biomass production generally increased to a maximum
when soil N became relatively unlimited (Fig. 10A, D, G and J).
However, the variability of biomass production increased at high
soil N levels, because of the larger variations in water stress caused
by the soil N conditions (Fig. 10B, E, H and K). At all sites, the
variability of biomass production was significantly (P < 0.05) and
positively related to the changes of soil water (Fig. 10C, F, I and
L). Multiple-regression analyses indicated that soil water and N
availability had a significant (P < 0.01) impact on the level of soil
C change. These factors were able to explain 59, 81, 79 and 65%
of the variation in soil C at Brigalow, Warra, Wagga Wagga and
Tarlee, respectively (Table 2).
Pooling all scenarios across all sites shows that the relative
change in soil C was inversely related to mean daily temperature
(P < 0.001; Fig. 11A). The same relationship was observed for most
of the scenarios (P < 0.05) and is illustrated by grey lines in Fig. 11A.
There were no apparent relationship between soil C change and
mean annual rainfall (Fig. 11B).
4. Discussion
The simulation results presented here shows that APSIM is
able to predict crop growth and soil C dynamics in different agro-
ecosystems. A number of previous studies have demonstrated that
APSIM is able to predict soil water dynamics, nutrient cycling and
crop growth under different environmental conditions and agri-
cultural practices (Keating et al., 2003; van Ittersum et al., 2003;
Probert et al., 2005; Probert, 2007; Wang et al., 2009; Liu et al.,

Table 2
Multiple regression analysis of the effect of soil water availability, nitrogen availability and their interaction on soil carbon change over the 120 years of simulation under
various agricultural practices at Brigalow, Warra, Wagga Wagga and Tarlee in Australia.

Variable Brigalow Warra Wagga Tarlee

t value P > |t| t value P > |t| t value P > |t| t value P > |t|

Nitrogen 0.90 0.374 −4.88 <0.001 −1.71 0.097 −2.30 0.029

Water 1.11 0.276 −4.04 <0.001 −1.71 0.482 −1.29 0.208
Nitrogen × water 0.25 0.803 4.74 <0.001 3.43 0.002 3.78 <0.001
Whole model R2 0.59*** 0.81*** 0.79*** 0.65***

Bold values show that the effect is significant at P < 0.05.

***
P < 0.001.
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Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544 1537

Fig. 5. Soil carbon change (0–30 cm) relative to initial soil C content after 120 years of simulation under different scenarios. (A) fertilization rate of 0 (N0), 50 (N50), 100
(N100), 150 (N150) and 200 (N200) kg N ha−1 yr−1 with all residues being retained (SR). (B and C) SR of 0% (R0), 25% (R25), 50% (R50), 75% (R75) and 100% (R100) with zero N
application (N0; B) or optimal N application (Nopt ; C) under conventional tillage (CT). (D) and (E) are the same as (B) and (C), respectively, except there was no-tillage (NT). F
and G show wheat-fallow (WF), continuous wheat (CW), wheat–chickpea rotation (WC), wheat–lucerne rotation (WL) and continuous lucerne pasture (LP) under N0 (F) and
Nopt (G).

2010; Huth et al., 2010; Asseng et al., 2011). Those results sug-
gested that APSIM can serve as a credible modeling tool to assess
the role of agricultural soils in sequestering C, and to guide man-
agement practices for maximizing soil C storage and maintaining
soil fertility.
4.1. Uncertainties of the simulation
Several limitations and some uncertainties should be noticed in
interpreting the simulation results in this study. Firstly, the decom-
position of soil C after tillage could be underestimated. In APSIM,
tillage is designed to incorporate surface organic matter into soil
within a specified depth. The effects of tillage on soil environment
such as water, porosity and aeration are greatly simplified. There-
fore, tillage does not only disrupt soil aggregate, but also lead to
possible accelerated soil C decomposition due to changes in soil
environment (Six et al., 1999; Fontaine et al., 2007; Grandy and
Robertson, 2007). La Scala et al. (2008) developed a first-order
decay model to simulate soil C dynamics after tillage, and showed
good agreement (R2 = 0.97) between modeled and observed short-
term temporal changes of soil C losses as a result of tillage. Such
information may need to be incorporated in the model in order to
more accurately simulate the impact of tillage.
Secondly, crop varietal changes could have significant effect on
crop production (Liu et al., 2010) and thus the C input into soil.
The same wheat variety was used in our scenario analysis, which
ignored the possible impact of varietal changes on biomass pro-
duction. In fact, farmers would select appropriate variety (early or
later maturity) according to sowing date to avoid the risk of crop
failure, which will lead to difference in biomass production and
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1538 Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544

Fig. 6. Soil carbon content in the 0–30 cm layer under different nitrogen fertilization application rates with residue retention and no-tillage over the 120-year simulation
from 1889 to 2008 at Brigalow (A), Warra (B), Wagga Wagga (C) and Tarlee (D). N0 (+), N50 ( ), N100 (×), N150 ( ) and N200 (♦) indicate the fertilization rate of 0, 50, 100,
150 and 200 kg N ha−1 yr−1 , respectively.

thus residue return. The crop variety induced variability would be
more significant under future changing climate (Liu et al., 2010)
due to adaptation to the future environment.
Thirdly, our scenario analysis based on historic climate data
did not consider possible future climate change such as increasing
atmospheric CO2 , temperature and rainfall changes, which could
lead to significant changes in the results of the scenario analysis.
Field studies have indicated that increasing atmospheric CO2 stim-
ulated production of crop residues in agro-ecosystems (Torbert
et al., 2000; Prior et al., 2005). In the same conservation treat-
ment for four years, Prior et al. (2005) found that elevated CO2
(683 ppm) increased the amount of crop residue and C concen-
tration in the top 0.05 m soil by 44% compared with at ambient
CO2 . Both changes of temperature and rainfall can also significantly
affect C cycle through crop growth, litter decomposition and soil
conditions (Anderson, 1991; Cornelissen et al., 2007; Dang et al.,
2009). For example, global warming could lead to decrease in crop C
assimilation (Fuhrer, 2003) as well as increase soil C decomposition
(Davidson and Janssens, 2006). These negative impacts may offset
the stimulating effects of elevated CO2 on biomass production and
reduce C input into soil. The effects of future climate change on soil
C dynamics need to be explicitly addressed and considered in future
research in order to simulate soil C dynamics and crop responses
under climate change conditions.
4.2. Long-term carbon dynamics and sequestration in
agricultural soils
A number of studies show that cultivation of natural soils lead
to significant decline of soil C in the surface 10–20 cm soil depth
with most of the C loss occurred in the first few years (Mann, 1986;
Davidson and Ackerman, 1993; Luo et al., 2010b). These observa-
tions are consistent with our simulation at Brigalow where soil
C in the 0–10 cm soil layer decreased rapidly in the initial years
following clearing followed by a slower rate of decrease (Fig. 4A).
After the rapid decrease in the initial years, soil C would reach a
new steady state after about 50 years of cultivation (Mann, 1986;
Davidson and Ackerman, 1993; Luo et al., 2010b). However, the
scenario analysis indicates that when considering the soil C change
in the 0–30 cm soil profile, the “new” steady state of soil C was not
attained even after 120 years of simulation. Particularly, soil C con-
tent even decreased after reaching the maximum level at Warra.
We hypothesize that this occurs because of either the larger pro-
portion of recalcitrant C with low decomposition rate in deeper
soil layers, or the limited C input from aboveground residues to
balance the soil C loss by decomposition. With the much lower
decomposition rate, the proportion and absolute amount of HUM
would have significant impact on long-term soil C balance. More
importantly, it indicates that long-term soil C change in deeper soil
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Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544
Fig. 7. Simulated soil carbon content (0–30 cm) under optimal nitrogen fertilization
rate (Nopt ), no-tillage (NT) and 100% residue retention (R100) over the 120-year
climatic sequence from 1889 to 2008 at Brigalow (), Warra (䊉), Wagga Wagga ()
and Tarlee ().
Fig. 8. Simulated soil carbon content (0–30 cm) as affect by cropping rotation, optimal nitrogen fertilization application, no-tillage and 100% residue retention from 1889
to 2008 at Brigalow (A), Warra (B), Wagga Wagga (C) and Tarlee (D). The cropping sequences were wheat-fallow (WF), continuous wheat (CW), wheat–chickpea (WC),
wheat–lucerne (WL) and lucerne pasture (LP).
1539
layers needs to be considered when assessing the potential ability
of soil C sequestration in agricultural soils.
Adopting CAPs usually stimulate soil C sequestration, but the
time needed for the soil C to reach a pseudo-steady state remains
uncertain and ranges from less than a decade to more than a cen-
tury (Sauerbeck, 2001; West and Post, 2002; West and Six, 2007;
Qin and Huang, 2010). The range in time may result from the
differences in pre-clearing vegetation, climate, land management
and land-use history. Using global data from 95 long-term agricul-
tural experiments covering a range of climate and soil conditions,
Qin and Huang (2010) estimated that soil C sequestration would
continue for 19–98 years before reaching the steady state under
CAPs. In most of our simulated cases, soil C did not reach steady
state even after 120 years of simulation. The rate and amount
of soil C change after a typical period of simulation was influ-
enced by site and crop management. RothC simulations suggest
that the changes in the quantity and/or quality of soil C inputs
cause the sequestration duration to range from 15 to 150 years
(West and Six, 2007). To improve the accuracy of predictions, long-
term data coupled with detailed information on land management,
land-use and climate regimes are required. System modeling then
provides a good option to combine the information to assess soil
C sequestration capacity under future management and climate
conditions.
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1540 Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544
Fig. 9. The relationship between simulated mean annual amount of residue retained
and soil C change from 1889 to 2008 at Brigalow (), Warra (䊉), Wagga Wagga ()
and Tarlee (). All the linear regressions were significant (P < 0.001).
4.3. The effects of agricultural practices on soil C dynamics
In agro-ecosystems, fertilization can have a marked effect on soil
C balance by regulating crop C assimilation and soil nutrient cycling.
Our simulations show that without N fertilization, increasing the
rate of residue retention alone in a particular region can only reduce
the rate of soil C loss and cannot turn agricultural soils into a C sink.
This implies that, to maintain soil C content or sequester C, it is
important to compensate for nutrient losses through fertilization,
and that stoichiometric balance in the soil should be considered
(Hessen et al., 2004). After reaching the Nopt , extra N fertilizer does
not enhance C sequestration, due to the plateau in biomass pro-
duction. In fact, it may even reduce C sequestration, because of
an increase in the decomposition of residues at higher fertilization
rates (Neff et al., 2002; Khan et al., 2007; Majumder and Kuzyakov,
2010). We found that soil C content reached the maximum when
fertilization was applied at rates of 50–150 kg N ha−1 yr−1 depend-
ing on local environment.
Conventional tillage (CT) has significant effect on soil environ-
ment; and is considered to be one of the main reasons attributing to
soil C loss in agricultural soils. Thus, conservation tillage (NT) has
been widely recommended to stimulate C sequestration in agri-
cultural soils (Smith et al., 1998; Paustian et al., 2000; Lal, 2004;
Six et al., 2004). This view was challenged by considering the soil
depth deeper than tillage depth (Baker et al., 2007; Angers and
Eriksen-Hamel, 2008; Luo et al., 2010a). Using meta-analysis, Luo
et al. (2010a) synthesized data from 69 paired-experiments over
the world that compared soil C differences between CT and NT,
and found that adopting NT on CT croplands just redistributed soil
C in the soil profile but did not significantly increase soil C con-
tent when considering the soil depth down to 40 cm in cropping
systems with one crop per year. In the current study, the model
simulated soil C change in a continuous wheat system with tillage
depth of 20 cm. The results indicated that the difference between
NT and CT scenarios was negligible in the surface 30 cm soil layer
(Fig. 5B–E). However, tillage would significantly change soil cir-
cumstances such as water and thermal conditions, stimulate the
oxidation of soil C and redistribute C substrates along the soil pro-
file thereby changing C decomposition processes (Six et al., 1999;
Coppens et al., 2007; Fontaine et al., 2007; Luo et al., 2010a). Rea-
sonable simulation of these processes is crucial for predicting soil C
dynamics under different tillage regimes using modeling methods.
Different cropping systems can lead to distinct soil C dynam-
ics (West and Post, 2002; Jarecki and Lal, 2003; Luo et al.,
2010b). Synthesizing Australian data on soil C change as impacted
by cropping systems, Luo et al. (2010b) showed that intro-
ducing perennial crops into the rotation leads to the greatest
increase of soil C (18%) compared with monoculture. Increas-
ing crop diversity (for example, a change from continuous wheat
to wheat–chickpea rotation) only increased soil C by 5%. These
findings were confirmed by the modeling results reported here
(Fig. 8). Perennial crops contribute to a extended plant cover,
higher biomass production, lower disturbance of soil, and less
soil C loss by erosion and leaching, therefore being more effec-
tive in sequestering soil C and maintaining soil health than
annual and biennial plants (Drinkwater et al., 1998). Our simu-
lations introducing perennial lucerne into the rotation was the
most efficient strategy for sequestering soil C with all man-
agement and environmental scenarios, which is consistent with
results of other studies (Drinkwater et al., 1998; Hulugalle and
Scott, 2008; McSwiney et al., 2010). Perennial lucerne has a
much longer growing period, leading to greater biomass pro-
duction both above and below ground. As an N-fixing plant,
lucerne also increases the soil N pool, which not only allevi-
ates N limitation for growth but also offsets the N losses by
harvesting.
4.4. The factors controlling soil C dynamics
The modeling results indicate that the amount of retained
residue is a good predictor of soil C changes in the four studied agri-
cultural soils. This result is consistent with the findings by West and
Six (2007). The significant positive relationships between soil C and
C inputs (i.e., retained residue) at the four semi-arid sites suggest
that these four soils are far from achieving soil C saturation (Six
et al., 2002; West and Six, 2007). The results also suggest that soil
water limits increases in soil C through placing limits on biomass
production at the four studied semi-arid sites. Dividing Australian
agricultural areas into wetter (annual rainfall > 500 mm) and drier
regions, some studies have reported that adoption of CAPs such as
no-tillage only increased soil C in wetter regions (Chan et al., 2003;
Valzano et al., 2005). The potential C sink capacity of agricultural
soils would be determined by potential crop biomass production
at a specific site (Paustian et al., 1997; Lal, 2003). Given the impact
of soil water and N on crop biomass production, it is reasonable to
deduce that changes in soil water and N conditions are a good pre-
dictor of soil C change of different agricultural ecosystems. This is
partially confirmed by the significant regulating effect of soil water
and nitrogen availability, together with their interaction, on soil C
change (Table 2).
Extending plot scale results to regional or continental scales is
a challenge for assessing the potential capacity of soil C seques-
tration in agricultural soils (Saby et al., 2008; Ogle et al., 2010).
For up-scaling, it is critical to identify the most important factors
determining the variability of soil C change across space and time.
Our simulations indicate that air temperature can significantly
affect soil C changes across sites (Fig. 11). Temperature is the
dominant factor with higher temperature leading to increased soil
C decomposition (Davidson and Janssens, 2006). Initial soil C com-
position also has significant impact on total soil C change. Different
soil C substrates such as fresh organic matter and inert C have
distinct activities as described by different decomposition rate,
and respond differently to biotic and abiotic variability (Allison,
2006; Davidson and Janssens, 2006; Wetterstedt et al., 2010). In
our simulations, for example, soil C decreases rapidly in the first
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Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544 1541

Fig. 10. The change of wheat biomass and soil water availability (IW ) under different soil nitrogen availability (IN ) over the 120 years of simulation from 1889 to 2008 at
Brigalow, Warra, Wagga Wagga and Tarlee. All data under different scenarios were pooled together. The relationship between the variability of biomass and IW are analyzed
in right panels. See details in the text for the definition of soil water and nitrogen availability. The numbers beside the points in (C), (F), (I) and (L) show the corresponding
nitrogen availability. *P < 0.05; **P < 0.01; ***P < 0.001.
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1542 Z. Luo et al. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151 (2011) 1529–1544
Fig. 11. Soil carbon change is predicted by mean temperature (A) and mean annual rainfall (B) using no pooling of each specific scenario (thin grey lines) and complete
pooling of all scenarios (thick black line). Only effects significant at P < 0.05 are shown. R2 of the regression of complete pooling is shown. ***P < 0.001.
five years at Brigalow, and the rate of decline was much faster than
at the other three sites (Fig. 3A). This is because of the higher initial
proportion of the highly decomposable FOM at Brigalow compared
to the other sites where clearing occurred well before the trials
were established. Additionally, cultivated soils usually experience
significant erosion and/or leaching, particularly in the first several
years after clearing. Both soil erosion and leaching would induce
marked loss of various C substrates such as particular and soluble
C, thus the decrease of soil C.
5. Conclusions
Simulation results at four study sites show that APSIM is able to
simulate soil C dynamics under different environmental conditions
and agricultural practices in agro-ecosystems. Scenario analyses
indicate that residue retention alone cannot reverse C loss in agri-
cultural soils. Combining optimal N fertilizer application and whole
residue retention can turn agricultural soils into C sinks. In all sim-
ulated agricultural systems, continuous lucerne pasture is the most
efficient strategy to sequester soil C. However, cultivation of nat-
ural soils could result in great soil C loss regardless of agricultural
practices. The amount of retained residue is a good predictor of
soil C change under different agricultural practices. Soil water and
nutrient availability could summarize the modeled soil C changes
as their significant effects on biomass production. These modeling
results would be of benefit to advise adequate agricultural manage-
ment for sequestering C and to assess the potential sequestration
ability in agricultural soils.
Acknowledgement
Financial support from a joint PhD program to Z. Luo under
the CSIRO-MOE (Ministry of Education, China) Scientific Exchange
Agreement is greatly acknowledged. We gratefully acknowledge
the Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, NSW Department of Pri-
mary Industries for providing the data for the SATWAGL (Stable
Agriculture Through Wheat and Grain Legumes) trial.
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