Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Subject: Quantitative Techniques III Professor: Prof. Bhavin J. Shah Group No: 3 Date: 6th March, 2013 IIM Indore PGP Mumbai Batch of 2014
Prepared By: Ankur Sinha (03) Arvind Kumar (05) Gunreet Kaur Thind (11) Karri Kartik (14) Pradyoth C John (23) Sandeep Sayal (28) Abhijeet Panwar (35)
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 3 1.1 Situation Analysis3 1.2 Objective..3 1.3 Problem Statement..3
2. ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Alternate course of action ............................................................................................. 4 2.2 Decision Tree.................................................................................................................. 4 2.3 EMV without information Solving the decision tree ................................................... 5 2.4 EMV with information and Cost of Information ............................................................ 5 3. CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATION .............................................................. 6
QT-3 Assignment
Page 2
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1SITUATION ANALYSIS RELEVANT CASE FACTS
Oceanview Development Corporation wants to bid $5 Million (Highest bid probability of 0.2) to purchase a property .It plans to build and sell a complex of luxury condominiums but the property is currently zoned for single family residences Revenue = $15,000,000 and Costs = $5,000,000 (Property) + $ 8,000,000 (Construction) Passage of a referendum (Probability of 0.3) would change the zoning of the property in favour of Oceanview Bid has to be submitted along with a certified checkfor 10% of bid amount If bid gets rejected, this 10% will get refunded If bid gets accepted, this 10% will act as a down payment for the property If bid gets accepted and the bidder fails to follow up, this 10% will be forfeited If bid gets accepted and the zoning change is rejected, the best option would be to forfeit this 10% and not purchase the property
Market research service can be hired for $ 15,000 to predict whether the zoning change
will be approved or rejected The market research information might not be completely accurate Probability of prediction of approval when actually approved = 0.9 Probability of prediction of rejection when actually approved = 0.1 Probability of prediction of rejection when actually rejected = 0.8
1.2 OBJECTIVE
To maximise the revenue (Expected monetary value) either by investing in property or not.
QT-3 Assignment
Page 3
2. ANALYSIS
2.1
Don't Submit 0 0 0
Calculating Posterior Probabilities As prior probabilities are given, we will have to calculate posterior probabilities and then take decision accordingly. This tree shows the prior probabilities associated (as given in the case)
QT-3 Assignment
Page 4
After calculating the posterior probabilities the new tree becomes as shown below:
The final decision tree with survey is shown below: With Survey
QT-3 Assignment
Page 5
2.3 Expected Monetary Value without Survey Solving the Decision Tree
EMV of successful bid and passing of zone change referendum = $20,00,000 EMV of successful bid and failure of zone change referendum= - $ 5,00,000 EMV of successful bid = 0.3*20,00,000 + 0.7 * (-5,00,000) = $2,50,000 EMV of unsuccessful bid = $5,00,000-$5,00,000 = $0 Submit the bid EMV = 0.8*0+0.2*2,50,000 = $50,000 Dont submit bid, EMV = $0 Hence EMV of decision tree = $ 50,000 (i.e. Submit the Bid)
QT-3 Assignment
Page 6
QT-3 Assignment
Page 7