Crop livestock intensification in the face of climate change

Study sites

Fast track site

VIII X VII XI IV
M A T E B E L E L AN D N O R TH

IX

VI II III
H AR A RE
M I D

M AS HO NAL A ND C ENT RAL

M AS HO NAL A ND WEST

N K AYI
NKAY I DIS T RI CT

S E HO A S NA T L

A
L A N D S

XII
BU LA WA YO
M A T

V
XVI

M A S V IN G O

MA

NI

CA

LA

ND

D S O U T H

Site selection: Southern Africa Village selection: 8 villages Distance from markets and roads

XIII

XIV

XV XVII

XVIII

XIX XXV

EXPLANATION
XXIV XXIII

XX

District Boundary Ward Boundary

XXII
II

Village Boundary Research Wards Ward Name

Village level surveys: Focus group discussions ~ 30 farmers of different wealth, gender and age per each village (n=24) Household surveys: Quantitative interviews 20 households per village, stratified by wealth (n=160)

XXVI

20km

Farm Systems Characteristics

1. Population and strata
Population: 160 HH (20HH per 8 villages) in Nkayi, South West Zimbabwe Strata: Ownership of ruminants (TLU) Herd size Thresholds (TLU) % household

No/few ruminants
Small herd Large herd

0-0.49
0.5-5.4 >5.4

29.4
41.3 29.4

2. Mixed crop livestock sub-systems

Maize and other crops: Grain and residues Cattle and other livestock: Milk, draft power, manure, milk

3. Crop, livestock and outcome components

Production: Maize grain and residues, cattle milk and meat Gains and losses: Net returns on maize, other crops, cattle, other livestock

Integrated crop-livestock systems

Soil fertility Feed shortages

Food security
100 Control Micro-dose Mz_muc 100%

Probability of exceedence (%)

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

400

450

% grain requirement met

Feed gap analysis

Base climate Future climate

Monthly feed supply (pasture, green & crop residues, red) versus feed demand (black line) for an example household

Feed gap analysis is translated into livestock cost/benefits: - Milk and meat production in case of feed surplus - Costs for stock feed in case of feed shortage

From feed gaps to livestock cost/benefits

Feed gap analysis is translated into livestock cost/benefits: - Milk and meat production in case of feed surplus - Costs for stock feed in case of feed shortage
HH id 43102 43104 43107 43119 43120 43202 43203 1248 43204 43205 212 43206 1968 43207 972 43208 1008 BENEFITS milk meat base future base future kg kg % change kg kg % change 1176 912 -22% 117 91 -22% 786 594 -24% 79 59 -24% 1176 912 -22% 117 91 -22% 1296 1092 -16% 130 109 -16% 3542 2970 -16% 354 297 -16% 784 110 1698 834 888 -37% -48% -14% -14% -12% 125 21 197 97 101 78 11 169 83 89 -37% -48% -14% -14% -12%

COSTS concentrates base future kg kg % change 685 1448 111% 793 1388 75% 685 1448 111% 394 923 134% 1136 2664 134% 0 0 4929 6328 28% 0 0 1665 1979 19% 490 1208 147% 279 664 138% 180 497 176%

% change is used to calculate future livestock livestock cost/benefits based on observed data: cost/benefit_future = cost/benefit_observed * %change where %change = (modelled_future - modelled_historic)/modelled_historic

Gain/loss diagram for each stratum from the TOA-MD analysis

600
400
$/yr

200 0 -200 0 50 100

-400
-600 S2a S2b S2c S3

Household modelling: APSFarm

Rodriguez, D., Cox, H., deVoil, P., Power, B. 2012. A whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia. Ag. Systems Rodriguez D, deVoil P, Power B, Cox H, Crimp S, Meinke H (2011) The intrinsic plasticity of farm businesses and their resilience to change. An Australian example. Field Crops Res. 124, 157-170. Power, B., Rodriguez, D., deVoil, P., Harris, G., Payero, J., 2011. A multi-field bio-economic model of irrigated grain-cotton farming systems. Field Crop Res. 124, 171-179.

LivSim (Rufino et al., 2008)

Relevant interventions

APSFarm-LivSim

Food security

Profits Risks Sustainability

Potential production
Own and hired labour Labour constrained Land constrained No educated

Maize harvested

Less land constrained More educated

Livestock

No livestock

Livestock

APSFarm-LivSim simulation

Expected outputs
Detailed description of farming systems and developed crop-livestock management practices relevant to different household typologies Interactions and synergies of increased diversity and integration (agro-ecological and economic opportunities) and their contribution to reduce risk and increase system resilience explored through modelling