Chapter 5 Discrete Probability Distributions

5.1 Random Variables

Random variable
A random variableis a variable whose value is determined by the outcome of a random
experiment.

Discrete random variable
A random variable that assumes countable values is called a discrete random variable.

Example
1. The number of cars sold at a dealership during a given month.
2. The number of houses in a certain block.
3. The number of heads obtained in three tosses of a coin.

Continuous random variable
A random variable that can assume any value contained in one or more intervals is called
a continuous random variable.

Example
1. The height of a person.
2. The time taken to complete an examination.
3. The weight of a baby.
4. The price of a house.


5.2 Probability distribution of a discrete random variable

Probability distribution of a discrete random variable lists all the possible values that
the random variable can assume and their corresponding probabilities.

The ordered pairs (x, P(x)) where ) ( ) ( x X P x P = = is called the probability distribution
of the discrete random variable X.

Two characteristics of a probability distribution:
1. 0 P(x) 1 for each value of x
2. P(x) = 1







Example 5.1: The following table lists the probability distribution of the number of
breakdowns per week for a machine based on past data.
Breakdowns per week 0 1 2 3
Probability 0.15 0.20 0.35 0.30


a) Present this probability distribution graphically.
b) Find the probability that during a given week, the number of breakdowns for
this machine is
i) exactly 2 ii) 0 to 2
iii) more than 1 iv) at most 1

Solution:


































Example 5.2: According to a survey, 60% of all students at a large university suffer from
math anxiety. Two students are randomly selected from this university. Let x denote the
number of students in this sample who suffer from math anxiety. Develop the probability
distribution of x.

Solution:









































Mean
The mean of a discrete random variable x is the value that is expected to occur per
repetition, on average, if an experiment is repeated a large number of times. It is denoted
by and calculated as
= ) (x xP


The mean of a discrete random variable x is also called its expected value and is denoted
by ) (x E ; that is,

= ) ( ) ( x xP x E

Example 5.3: (Refer to Example 5.1)
Find the mean number of breakdowns per week for this machine.

Solution:
































Standard deviation
The standard deviation of a discrete random variable x measures the spread of its
probability distribution and is computed as

=
=
2 2
2 2
) (
)) ( ( ) (

o
x P x
x E x E



Example 5.4: Loh Corporation is planning to market a new makeup product. It will earn
an annual profit of $4.5 million if this product has high sales and an annual profit of $1.2
million if the sales are medium, and it will lose $2.3 million a year if the sales are low.
The probabilities of these three scenarios are 0.32, 0.51 and 0.17 respectively.
a) Let x be the profits (in millions of dollars) earned per annum by the company
from this product. Write the probability distribution of x.
b) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of x.

Solution:






























5.3 The Binomial Probability Distribution

5.3.1 Factorials and combinations

Factorial
1 2 3 )... 3 )( 2 )( 1 ( ! = n n n n n
where 0! = 1

Combinations (order does not matter)
The number of combinations for selecting x from n distinct elements is given by the
formula
)! ( !
!
x n x
n
x
n
C
x
n

=
|
|
.
|

\
|
=


5.3.2 The Binomial Experiment

An experiment that satisfies the following four conditions is called a binomial
experiment.
1. There are n identical trials.
2. Each trial has two and only two outcomes. These outcomes are usually called a
success and a failure. Each trial is called a Bernoulli trial.
3. P(success) = p , P(failure) = q, and 1 = + q p . The probabilities p and q remain
constant for each trial.
4. The trials are independent.


Example 5.5: Consider the experiment consisting of 10 tosses of a coin. Determine
whether or not it is a binomial experiment.

Solution:
1. There are a total of 10 trials (tosses) and they are all identical. All 10 tosses are
performed under identical conditions. Here n = 10.
2. Each trial has only two possible outcomes: a head and a tail. Let a head be called
a success and a tail be called a failure.
3. The probability of obtaining a head is and that of a tail is for any toss. The
sum of these two probabilities is 1.0. Also, these probabilities remain the same for
each toss.
4. The trials are independent. The result of any preceding toss has no bearing on the
result of any succeeding toss.
Consequently, the experiment consisting of 10 tosses is a binomial experiment.






The Binomial Random Variable
The random variable X that represents the number of successes in n trials for a binomial
experiment is called a binomial random variable.


Binomial Probability Distribution
The probability distribution of X in a binomial experiment is called the binomial
probability distribution or the binomial distribution and denoted by B(n, p). We will
write this as ). , ( ~ p n B X


Binomial Formula
For a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x successes in n trials is given by
the binomial formula
x n x
q p
x
n
x X P

|
|
.
|

\
|
= = ) (
where n = total number of trials
p = probability of success
q = 1 p = probability of failure
x = number of successes in n trials
n x = number of failure in n trials

To find the probability of x successes in n trials for a binomial experiment, the only
parameters needed are those of n and p.

Example 5.6: Five percent of all DVD players manufactured by a large electronics
company are defective. A quality control inspector randomly selects three DVD players
from the production line. What is the probability that exactly one of these three DVD
players is defective?

Solution:
















Example 5.7: In a Robert Half International survey of senior executives, 35% of the
executives said that good employees leave companies because they are unhappy with the
management (USA TODAY, February 10, 2009). Assume that this result holds true for the
current population of senior executives. Let x denote the number in a random sample of
three senior executives who hold this opinion. Write the probability of x and draw a bar
graph for this probability distribution.

Solution:







































Binomial Probability Table
Apart from using the binomial distribution formula, we can also refer to a special
statistical table to obtain binomial probabilities. The statistical table enables us to obtain
the probability of r successes for a binomial variable with parameters n and p (n trials and
probability of a success equals p). We shall refer to the binomial table listed in The New
Cambridge Statistical Tables. This particular table tabulate cumulative binomial
probabilities in the form of:
P(X x) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + ... + P(X = x)
i.e. the probability of obtaining at most r successes from n trials.

The following is an example of some binomial probabilities tabulated in the Cambridge
Statistical Tables:
n = 5 r = 0 1 2 3 4
p = 0.01 0.9510 0.9990 number of successes, x = 2
.02
.03
.04
.
.
.
.9039
.8587
.8154



.9962
.9915
.9852



0.9999
.9997
.9994







0.50 0.0313 0.1875 0.500 0.8125 0.9688

To facilitate the usage of this table, the following relationships are useful to know:

1. P(X = r) = P(X r) P(X r 1)
2. P(X < r) = P(X r 1)
3. P(X r) = 1 P(X r 1)
4. P(X > r) = 1 P(X r)

Note: the right-hand side of the above equations all contain the inequality .

Example 5.8: Suppose X Bin(n = 5, p = 0.04). Find the following probability from the
binomial statistical table:
(i) P(X 2) , (ii) P(X < 2) , (iii) P(X = 2) , (iv) P(X 2) , (v) P(X > 2) .

Solution:








P(X 2) = 0.9994

The Cambridge Statistical Table tabulate binomial probabilities for p = 0.01 until p =
0.50 only. For a binomial event with probability of a success greater than 0.50, one
should consider it's complementary event. This is because, if the probability of a success,
p > 0.50, then the probability of it's complement (a failure), would be less than 0.5, i.e. (1
p) 0.5.

Let X be the number of successes and Y be the number of failures from n binomial
trials. If the probability of a success is denoted by p and the probability of a failure is
denoted by q, then
X Bin(n, p) and Y Bin(n, q), with p + q = 1
Since the number of trials for a binomial experiment is fixed at n, therefore,
X + Y = n or X = n Y.

Thus,
P(X = r) = P(n Y = r)
= P(Y = n r)
and P(X r) = P(n Y r)
= P(Y n r)

Example 5.9: Let X Bin(n = 10, p = 0.90). Find P(X = 5) dan P(X 8).

























Shape of the Binomial Distribution

For any number of trials n:
1. The binomial probability distribution is symmetric if p = 0.50 .

Table 5.1: Probability Distribution
of x for n = 4 and p = 0.50















2. The binomial probability distribution is skewed to the right if p is less than
0.50.

Table 5.2: Probability Distribution
of x for n = 4 and p = 0.30


















x P(x)
0 0.0625
1 0.2500
2 0.3750
3 0.2500
4 0.0625
x P(x)
0 0.2401
1 0.4116
2 0.2646
3 0.0756
4 0.0081

3. The binomial probability distribution is skewed to the left if p is greater than
0.50.

Table 5.3: Probability Distribution
of x for n = 4 and p = 0.80














Mean and Standard deviation of a binomial distribution
Suppose ) , ( ~ p n B X . Then the mean and standard deviation of X are
np = and npq = o
where p q =1 .


Suppose ) , ( ~ p n B X and X n Y = . Then
) 1 , ( ~ p n B Y .

Example 5.10: According to Harris Interactive Survey conducted for World Vision and
released in February 2009, 56% of teens in the United State volunteer time for charitable
causes. Assume that this result is true for the current population of U.S. teens. A sample
of 60 teens of 60 teens is selected. Let x be the number of teens in this sample who
volunteer time for charitable causes. Find the mean and standard deviation of the
probability distribution of x.

Solution:









x P(x)
0 0.0016
1 0.0256
2 0.1536
3 0.4096
4 0.4096

5.4 The Hypergeometric Distribution

The hypergeometric probability distribution is useful for determining the probability of a
number of occurrences when sampling is done without replacement. It counts the
number of successes (x) in n selections from a population of N elements, k of which are
successes and (N-k) of which are failures.

Hypergeometric Probability Density Function
Consider a statistical experiment where a sample of n observations are to be taken
without replacement from a population of size N. The population contains k items that are
labeled 'success' and N - k items that are labeled 'failure'. If a random variable X assumes
the value equal to the number of successes in the sample of size n, then X has a
hypergeometric distribution with parameters N, n and k. The random variable X is said
to be hypergeometrically distributed with parameters N, n and k, and has the following
probability density function:
( )
( )
n
N
x n
k N
x
k
C
C C
x X P

= = , x = 0, 1, 2, , k

Example 5.11: Dawn Corporation has 12 employees who hold managerial positions. Of
them, 7 are female and 5 are male. The company is planning to send 3 of these 12
managers to a conference. If 3 managers are randomly selected out of 12,
a. find the probability that all 3 of them are female.
b. find the probability that at most 3 of them is a female.

Solution:





















5.5 The Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that applies to occurrences
of some events over a specified interval. The random variable X is the number of
occurrences of the events in an interval. The interval can be time, distance, area, volume
or some similar unit.

Properties of Poisson Process
1. The number of outcomes occurring in an interval is independent of the number
that occurs in any other interval.
2. The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very short interval is
proportional to the length of the interval and does not depend on the number of
outcomes occurring outside this interval.
3. The probability that more than one outcome will occur in such a short interval is
negligible.

The following are examples of discrete random variable for which the Poisson
probability distribution can be applied.
1. The number of telemarketing phone calls received by a household during a given
day.
2. The number of mistakes typed on a given page.
3. The number of customers entering a grocery store during a one-hour interval.

Poisson Probability Distribution Formula
The probability of x occurrences in an interval is
, 2 , 1 , 0
!
) ( = =

x
x
e
x P
x

where is the mean number of occurrences in that interval .
The Poisson distribution is denoted by Poisson( ) or P( ).

Example 5.12: A washing machine in a laundry shop breaks down an average of three
times per month. Find the probability that during the next month this machine will have
a) exactly two breakdowns
b) at most one breakdown

Solution:











The Poisson probability Table
Like the binomial probabilities, the Poisson probabilities can also be obtained from a
special statistical table. The statistical table gives the probability of obtaining r outcomes
for a Poisson variable with parameter . We shall refer to the Poisson table listed in The
New Cambridge Statistical Tables. This particular table tabulate cumulative Poisson
probabilities in the form of:

P(X r) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + ... + P(X = r)

i.e. the probability of obtaining at most r outcomes.

The following is an example of some Poisson probabilities tabulated in the Cambridge
Statistical Tables:

r = 0 1 2 3
0.00 1.000
.02 0.9802 0.9998

3.00 0.0498 0.1991 0.42332 0.6472




Example 5.13: Let X ~ Poisson (3). Find (i) P(X 2), (ii) P(X = 2), (iii) P(X 2)

Solution:




















P(X 2) = 0.4232

Mean and Variance of the Poisson probability distribution
Suppose ) ( Poisson ~ X , then
2
o = = .

Poisson approximation of the Binomial Distribution
A binomial distribution with a sufficiently large number of trials, n, and a sufficiently
small probability of success, p, can be approximated with a Poisson distribution. We will
consider n to be sufficiently large when n 100 and p to be sufficiently small when p <
0.1, such that np < 10.

Let X Bin (n, p) with n 100 and p < 0.1, such that np < 10. A Poisson
appproximation of X results in:
X ~ Poisson ( = np )


Example 5.14: Cynthias Mail Order Company provides free examination of its products
for 7 days. If not completely satisfied, a customer can return the product within that
period and get a full refund. According to past records of a company, an average of 2 of
every 10 products sold by this company are returned for a refund. Find the probability
that exactly 6 of the 40 products sold by this company on a given day will be returned for
a refund by using (i) binomial distribution, (ii) Poisson approximation.

Solution