Discrete Probability Distributions

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Binomial Distribution
1) There is a fixed number of trials. This is denoted by n.
2) The n trials are independent and repeated under identical conditions. 3) Each trial has two outcomes:

S = success

F = failure

4) For each trial, the probability of success, p, remains the same. Thus, the probability of failure is 1 p = q. 5) The central problem is to determine the probability of r successes out of n trials.

Binomial Distribution

Example
A stationary store has decided to accept a large shipment of ball-point pens if an inspection of 20 randomly selected pens yields no more than two defective items. (In the sampling, a pen is drawn and then replaced ). What is the probability that this shipment is accepted if 5% of the total shipment is defective?

Mean and Standard Deviation

Mean (Expected Value)
= Standard Deviation =

Example: Consumer Reports rated airlines and found that 80% of the flights involved in the study arrived on time (that is, within 15 minutes of scheduled arrival time). Assuming that the on-time arrival rate is representative of the entire airline commercial industry, consider a random sample of 200 flights. What is the expected number that will arrive on time? What is the standard deviation of this distribution?

GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

Geometric Distribution
1) The observations are all independent.
2) Each trial has two outcomes:

S = success

F = failure

3) For each trial, the probability of success, p, remains the same. 4) The variable of interest is the number of trials required to obtain the first success.

Geometric Distribution

Example
Over a very long period of time, it has been noted that on Fridays, 25% of the customers at the drive-in window at the bank make deposits. What is the probability that the 4th customer at the drive-in window will make a deposit?

Mean and Standard Deviation

Mean (Expected number of trials required to get the first success) 1 =
Standard Deviation 1 2

Example
A sharpshooter normally hits the target 70% of the time. a) Find the probability that the sharpshooter has his/her first hit on the second try. b) What is the mean and standard deviation of this distribution?

HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

Hypergeometric Distribution
1) Each trial has possibility only for success or failure. 2) Specific number of trials. 3) Random variable is the number of successful outcomes from the specified number of trials. 4) Individual outcomes cannot be repeated within the trials.

5) Each trial is dependent on the previous trial. 6) The probability of success changes with each trial.

Hypergeometric Distribution
The probability of successes in dependent trials is
=

where is the population size and is the total number of successes in the population

Example
Draw six cards from a deck without replacement. a) What is the probability of getting exactly two hearts? b) What is the probability of obtaining at most two hearts?

POISSON DISTRIBUTION

Poisson Distribution
Assume that an interval is divided into a very large number of subintervals so that the probability of the occurrence of an event in any subinterval is very small. Assumptions of a Poisson probability distribution are: 1) The probability of an occurrence of an event is constant for all subintervals: independent events; 2) You are counting the number times a particular event occurs in a unit; and 3) As the unit gets smaller, the probability that two or more events will occur in that unit approaches zero.

Poisson Distribution
The random variable is said to follow the Poisson probability distribution if it has the probability function: =
!

for = 0,1,

where () = the probability of x successes over a given period of time or space, given = the expected number of successes per time or space unit; > 0 = 2.71828 (the base for natural logarithms)

Mean and Standard Deviation

Mean (Expected value)
= Standard Deviation =

Example
If calls to your cell phone are a Poisson process with a constant rate = 2 calls per hour, what is the probability that, if you forget to turn your phone off in a 1.5 hour class, your phone rings during that time?
How many phone calls do you expect to get during the class?

Example
A production line produces 600 parts per hour with an average of 5 defective parts an hour. If you test every part that comes off the line in 15 minutes, what is the probability of finding no defective parts (and incorrectly concluding that your process is perfect)?

References
coreilly.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/82-the-geometricdistribution.ppt www.phys.ttu.edu/~cmyles/Phys4302/.../Lecture01e%20Poiss on.ppt www.tvdsb.ca/webpages/.../u4d8%207.4%20hypergeometric %20dist.ppt