We take

as the number of newly-born individuals at time

. Thus

where is the maximum age to which individuals can survive. The number of individuals in other age categories is determined purely by the number of individuals that survive from the preceding year. Specifically,

This completely specifies the demographics of the population, assuming for the moment that the in matrix form as and don't vary from one year to the next. This can be written

More compactly

Eigenvalue meaning in a Leslie Model The dominant eigenvalue of , denoted , gives the population's asymptotic growth rate (growth rate at the stable age distribution). The corresponding eigenvector provides the stable age distribution, the proportion of individuals of each age within the population. Once the stable age distribution has been reached, a population undergoes exponential growth at rate . Properties The population on finally grows if 1> 1. The population on finally decreases if 1 <1. The population on eventually stabilize if 1 = 1. Application problem This problem was taken from Linear Algebra a Modern Introduction by David Poole chapter 3. Woodland caribou are found primarily in the western provinces of Canada and the American northwest. The average lifespan of a female is about 14 years. The birth and survival rates for each bracket are given in the following table, which shows the caribou cows do not give birth during their first 2 years and give birth to about one calf per year during their middle years. The mortality rate for young calves is very high. The numbers of woodland caribou reported in Jasper National Park in Alberta 1990 are shown in the next table.

Initial vector

 First cycle (2 year each) N1=L*N0 N1 = 46.4000 3.0000 1.4000 7.2000 4.5000 10.8000 0 Total population prediction growth for 1992 73.3000 Second cycle N2=L^2*N0 N2 = 42.0600 13.9200 2.1000 1.2600 6.4800 4.0500 6.4800 Total population prediction growth for1994 Estimation for year 2000 N5=L^5*N0 N5 = 42.5160 11.6456 7.0661 7.9493 7.8926 1.5309 0.6124 Total population prediction growth for 2000 79.2130 Estimation for year 2010 N10=L^10*N0 N10 = 69.1199 18.6131 12.2397 10.5872

76.3500

8.2855 6.5088 3.5657 Total population prediction growth for 2010 128.9199 Estimation for year 2012 N11=L^11*N0 N11 = 76.0010 20.7360 13.0292 11.0157 9.5285 7.4570 3.9053 Total population prediction growth for 2012 141.6726 In the long term, what is the % increase in the population every cycle, every 2 years?

C=141.6726/128.9199 C = 1.0989 In the long term the population increases about 9% every 2 years. This is the eigenvalue of the matrix L. Now we find it in a more formal way. lambda=eig(L) lambda = 461/422 536/2155 536/2155 -393/1103 -393/1103 -533/971 -351/1069 +11440/16387i -11440/16387i + 1189/1922i - 1189/1922i

We note that only the first number can be the eigenvalue, since the others either are complex conjugates of each other o negative numbers. 461/422 = 1.09

Modified Leslie Matrix: Lefkovitch Matrix Models (Stage-Structured Models) The Leslie matrix is the correct approach for animals, but not for many plants. For them size or stage is more important than age.Unlike Leslie matrix models, which are based on age-specific survival and fecundity rates, Lefkovitch matrix models are based on stagespecific survival rates. Nt+1 = ANt A is a Lefkovitch or transition matrix It contains all stage- specific rates of transition and seed production There are i columns and j (= i) rows for a population with i stages If i = j the value indicates the fraction of organisms that remain in the same stage. A t+1 This year (t) stage 1 stage 2 stage i

stage 1 stage 2 stage j

a11 a21 aj1

a12 a22 aj2

a1i a2i aj3