Work, Employment & Society

http://wes.sagepub.com/ Three observations on work in the future

Ann Bergman and Jan Ch. Karlsson Work Employment Society 2011 25: 561 DOI: 10.1177/0950017011407974 The online version of this article can be found at: http://wes.sagepub.com/content/25/3/561

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Review essay

Three observations on work in the future

Ann Bergman

Work, Employment and Society 25(3) 561568 The Author(s) 2011 Reprints and permission: sagepub. co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0950017011407974 wes.sagepub.com

Karlstad University, Sweden

Jan Ch. Karlsson

Karlstad University, Sweden

Stanley Parker The Future of Work and Leisure London: MacGibbon and Kee, 1971, (ISBN: 9780261632226), 160 pp. William T. Morris Work and Your Future: Living Poorer, Working Harder Reston,VA: Reston Publishing Company, 1975, (ISBN: 9780879098926), x + 306 pp. Charles Handy The Future of Work: What Jobs Will There Be? What Will Life Be Like? What Needs to Be Done? New York, NY: Basil Blackwell, 1984, (ISBN: 9780631142775), xiii + 201 pp. Charles Grantham The Future of Work: The Promise of the New Digital Work Society New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 2000, (ISBN: 9780071348300), xv + 224 pp. Andrew Ross Nice Work If You Can Get It: Life and Labor in Precarious Times New York, NY: New York University Press, 2009, $43.59 hbk, (ISBN: 9780814776922), viii + 264 pp. Richard Donkin The Future of Work Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010, 27 hbk (ISBN: 9780230576384), viii + 272 pp.

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Introduction
Everyone knows the inevitable presence of the future. In social contexts, however, the future is genuinely unpredictable, which is one reason why there is such great interest in its prediction (Bergman et al., 2010). When it comes to the future of work, few books with that title or similar contain any predictions at all. One might suspect that those words are in the title to make it more catchy and interesting. Looking into the future of work literature, one can identify two extremes. One involves searching to abolish work in order to create a better society, the other to achieve dignity at work for the same reason. The former extreme seldom uses titles such as The Future of Work, as these authors do not see any future for work, while the latter extreme often uses such titles, even though they seldom have much to say about the future. Instead, they tend on the one hand to discuss contemporary working life problems from a critical perspective by using different undesirable future scenarios as warnings in a dystopian sense; on the other hand, future working life is also discussed in terms of preferable futures in a normative political sense. The books included in this review are no exception, and we present some observations in order to verify these statements. We have chosen the books as examples of the future of work literature from the 1970s onwards. There are few examples (such as Keynes, 1972 [1930]) before that time, but a flowering literature thereafter. The observations we make are, first, that dignity in and at work are central themes; second, that there is a conspicuous absence of class and gender in the analyses; and third, that concrete predictions are surprisingly few in the literature.

Dignity problems in current work

Dignity has been an important theme since the early days of sociology of work, adopting various descriptions, such as quality of working life and work satisfaction. Working conditions that provide employees with integrity, respect, pride, recognition, worth and standing or status give them dignity, while conditions that result in shame, stigma, humiliation, lack of recognition, or being mistrusted or taken for granted rob them of their dignity (Sayer, 2007: 567). The future of work literature sees development towards, or a potential for, either (more) dignified work or work dispossessed of all dignity. Even if dignity is not explicitly a salient feature of the books, the social problems identified in them can clearly be related to dignity. The most common approach to dignity in the books is dignity as a result of socioeconomic conditions or working conditions in other words it is structurally generated. Stanley Parkers (1971) book is carefully argued from theories and empirical findings in the social sciences of his time; firstly concerning work, secondly concerning leisure and thirdly concerning the relationship between work and leisure. The problem he examines concerns the structures which can provide people in todays society with the possibility of self-realization and how the needs of individuals and society can be united. He observes that large parts of the population do not live a satisfying or creative life and finds two approaches to this problem in sociological analyses: segmentalisms differentiation between work and leisure and holisms integration of the two

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spheres. Segmentalism is based on the idea that modern society is strongly compartmentalized and that this is a good thing. It provides the individual with the opportunity to fit in with many different and unconnected social contexts. Holism is described more vaguely, although it is clear that it is the perspective he subscribes to. The means, at the social level, of achieving the highest possible satisfaction for people is a fusion between work and leisure. This would entail work losing its coercive character and instead acquiring the trait of creativity, which now is more a part of leisure; in doing so, leisure would take on a different meaning than being the opposite of work, becoming closer to work. In William T. Morris (1975), one can relate the matter of dignity to productivity and how we can achieve productivity without reducing quality of life and self-respect. He argues that it is a mistake to see productivity solely as an effect of how hard we work; rather, it is a result of the ways in which we use capital, creativity or intelligence, for example. The best way to achieve productivity without reducing quality of life and self-respect, Morris concludes, is by pushing degrees of freedom downwards in the organization, creating working conditions for employees on all levels to make their jobs more open, less rigid, more adaptable to people, to their own lives and personalities (p. 95). He describes productivity as the result of a work situation in which employees have an understanding of what they are doing and the freedom to create their own jobs in relation to the organizations goals and objectives. This is a situation which creates the conditions for dignity, and thus also a better society. Charles Handys (1984) observation about dignity also shows a structural approach, since he stresses that not only are jobs and traditional, paid employment the main road to respectability in society, but also being a member of this society or doing unpaid work. These too give you the right to be shown solidarity and respect. It is important to be able to gain respect, even if you are not employed in a traditional way. Handy continues to argue that recognition, in a broader sense than in relation to traditional jobs, is important for the respect of others and the feeling of meaningfulness:
Work, in some form, is critical to individuals. It is apart from anything else, a principal structure for mattering. We all need to feel that we matter, that we can contribute, that we are missed in our absence, that we are respected and liked. (p. 55)

To be able to achieve a better society, we need to create conditions for various forms of work, not only traditional ones. Even though there is no explicit discussion about dignity in Charles Granthams (2000) book, one easily observes his bright view of future working life as new forms of communities that focus on motivation, good working conditions and a range of opportunities for autonomy and creativity. In Granthams view, organizations of the future have to be constructed in such a way that the most important thing is not how and where we work, but with whom. If we succeed in doing this, we will experience creative individuals who are respected by others in creative communities. In Andrew Rosss (2009) book, the observation related to dignity is his urge to create a less competitive modern society. He wants us to fight the flexploitation of the uncontracted labour force with the help of new socio-economic conditions, new ideals and new

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practices that are more equitable and fair and in which decent work is a human right. In order to achieve this, we have to let go of lifelong contracts as a norm for working. Security, dignity and respect do not necessarily have to be tied to job contracts, but rather to a social wage which has no connection to employment. Ross also argues that there is a cross-class challenge, meaning that workers, irrespective of their position in the status and income hierarchy, must be able to see what they have in common exploitation and its precarious forms. He stresses that one important aspect of bringing different classes together in solidarity is greater understanding on the part of below-the-line workers. This understanding includes not only their experiences, but also the strategies they have developed in order to gain dignity, respect and solidarity. In Richard Donkin (2010), too, the importance of creating the conditions for a better working life is clear: After all, thats what really matters about work, isnt it that its good work (p. 13). Work should be intrinsically rewarding and work that is not should be left to machines. He is hoping for more democratic forms of management, but he doubts that his hopes will come true. The book contains many sharp formulations against the short-sighted greed of employers, such as: Much of modern work lacks beauty and thats such a shame. But there is no place for beauty on a balance sheet (p. 241). In contrast, he presents a short and rather humorous utopia of work in 2059, in which dignity in and at work has a central place. So, in order to create a better society, work seems to be inevitable. A more humane and respectable situation is expected by changing the structural conditions surrounding work, as well as the ones constituting work. In the different descriptions of an improved society and work life, there is no doubt that what is depicted has a strong resemblance to the criteria of dignity: respect, recognition and integrity are crucial.

The absence of gender and class

There are two common features in these books we review. On the one hand, there is a desire for a different society and working life, against the backdrop of a number of problems detected at the time when the books were being written. On the other hand, in the contours of this new society, work and livelihoods can be described as conditions and values that support human dignity, both in an objective and a subjective sense. This will probably make most social scientists or at least sociologists start looking for structural forms of inequality; as did we. However, one can note that there is no extensive discussion about class and gender in the books. Ross is an exception, since one of his main arguments is about the rise of a new form of class. Even though classes still exist, as do the capitalist forces generating them, the content and formation of class are changing. This is what Ross portrays as the cross-class challenge. Solidarity between strangers is what to strive for in a working life where increasing numbers of individuals are facing the same precarious conditions academics included. To some extent, Ross is also discussing gender issues in terms of low-paid, low-skilled women, as well as ethnicity. Parker analyses some occupational groups and their relationships with work and leisure, including domestic work. Still, class or gender do not enter the argument in any serious, theoretical way. Granthams positive way of illustrating future working life is also not concerned at all about the stratification of society as regards class or gender. His

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division is, rather, between those who can make the transition to the new society and those who cannot or rather choose not to. He is not interested in discussing inequalities in society, but modern forms of work that seem to have a rather small target group. Morriss concerns about productivity and wealth never deal with class or gender issues. He makes a leap from a societal level of wealth and income down to workplace democracy and good working conditions, without visiting issues of class. Handy sees risks in having too narrow a focus on work as the source of meaning and income, preferring to talk about marginalization processes and stigmatization of the unemployed rather than class or gender. Donkin similarly does not discuss class, but writes a whole chapter on women and work, concluding that there is a lack of a strong enough power in society to eliminate gender discrimination at work in the future. Women will continue to dominate in low-paid jobs and be under-represented in top management. Concerning inequalities, one can conclude that there is a consciousness about this matter in all the books except, perhaps, Granthams. However, it does not stand out strongly and is more about marginalization in general. This is especially surprising when it comes to class, which is a durable and well-known inequality pattern, especially when work is the focus. The absence of gender is not as remarkable, since the social problem of gender and work is of a later political and scientific interest, introduced by feminist writers and more recently established as a recognized subject. What is remarkable, however, is the lack of feminist writers in the area of future and work. Nevertheless, when identifying social problems and when trying to formulate ideas about a better society, the increase in womens presence in the labour market one of the most striking patterns of modern society has not made any major impact in these books.

Cautious in making forecasts but bold in being normative

Our last observation is an awareness of the problematic nature of predictions, but that this cautiousness is replaced with boldness in pointing out existing social problems and how to tackle them. In all the books, there is a longing for a better society, not in terms of explicit formulations about utopias, but as something that could be seen as making progress in a social and human sense. One might expect that the books included in this review make claims about what is to come, since they are dealing with the future. To some extent they do, but they do not predict the future in a strict sense, rather they use it as something in which to reflect their assumptions and analyses. When they say things about the future, this is done as scenario-like forecasts. In one way, it can also be seen as a form of critical argumentation. Parkers (p. 14) aim is to institute human dignity in both work and leisure and he intends to contribute to the solution of problems of work and leisure, by attempting to predict the likely outcome of alternative social policies. Morris (p. 10) argues that, by constructing various scenarios, one can consider a number of possible futures and, in doing so, make plans and take actions to increase both income and productivity. Handy (p. 188) argues that the scenarios he constructs can be partially or totally wrong, but they can play the role of illustrating alternative ways of organizing society and working life, thereby challenging prevailing assumptions. Grantham (p. 144) is the only one who

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explicitly claims that he makes a prediction: It is my prediction that technology is going to move us, as people, from being isolated as individuals to being members of new communities. Even though he uses the term prediction, his book is more of a guide as regards how to act in this ongoing social transition than a scientifically grounded forecast. Although Rosss book does not contain explicit predictions or forecasts, he still makes assumptions about the future by presenting a number of explanations and their possible outcomes in terms of precarious work and future livelihood. Donkin (p. 14), finally, says that what he has written is not intended as a book of predictions with visions of wizzy technology, but an examination of themes and trends that will influence the future of work. Another characteristic that unites the books is that all the authors are more or less normative and have a message they want to deliver to their readers, putting arguments forward regarding the future in order to convey their recommendations and ideas about how to handle various problems in current working life and society. Parkers book is the first one from the 1970s onwards to contain the words the future of work in the title. It is significant that the title also contains leisure as it was written at a time when leisure, rather than work, was regarded as a potential threat to peoples dignity. Parker (p. 11) expresses the source of the problem in this way and this is the only prediction in the book: The time will come, however, when the development of automation and other technical progress will mean that the choice between more work and more leisure need no longer be dictated by economic necessity. Parkers argument is that the problem of leisure must be related to the problem of work. His political goal is clear: to institute human dignity in work as well as in leisure. He says, for example, that he is looking for the steps that are required to change society so that more people are afforded more opportunities for a creative and satisfying work and leisure life (p. 15). Morris stresses the action-orientated aim of his book, namely to find ways to increase both income and productivity or a happy marriage between productivity and wealth. His point of departure is the assumption that wealth problems are caused by the organizational strategy whereby higher productivity is seen as an effect of cutting costs. This, in turn, results in job losses for many, a heavy workload for those who still have jobs and, all in all, a decrease in real income. We are going to work harder, but at the same time there is a risk that we are going to live poorer. Handy belongs to the category of social scientists or futurists who do not hesitate to take an active role in trying to influence the time to come. Handy sees the hegemony of the traditional forms of employment as a dead-end road and wants us to look beyond these forms of employment and the meaning given to them. He constructs two options as regards how to perceive the future of work and, in relation to that, he also argues which path to choose. One scenario is positive, where work is redefined, the time spent at work has decreased, and forms of work can have many different manifestations. Respectability and meaningfulness are not only, in this case, the result of having a job, nor are they related to the specific type of job. Instead, they are gained by being a member of a society and, in doing so, having access to a portfolio of work, whereby individuals have a mixture of different types of paid and unpaid work. The other scenario is pessimistic. Here, work is a social necessity and thus a privilege for those able to get a job, while those excluded from work are downgraded in the social hierarchy to live on the fringes as unemployed or, in the worst case, as criminals.
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According to Grantham (p. xx), the purpose of his book is to help the reader to understand how the changing world of work impacts you, your job and your community. He writes in an unmistakably optimistic normative action-orientated manner, putting more of a focus on possibilities than on problems. Still, he wants to make the transition to the new collaborative communities as easy and smooth as possible by using the possibilities that new technology offers us. A community is a form of social network that influences the creativity and life of both individuals and organizations and thus plays a crucial role in our wellbeing and success in the new society. Granthams idea regarding the future is that technology influences our lives in a direction which involves more social interaction, more social dependence and more social networking than todays individualized society. He argues that we are entering the age of collaboration, in which the division of labour is guided neither by control nor by coordination, as previously, but by this new form of non-individualistic alliance. Ross sees the massive increase in precarious work as a growing social problem for the majority of us. The globalization and economic liberalization manifested as deregulation and privatization have reshaped the livelihoods of people in most countries, with fewer and fewer of them today having a stable and fixed job pattern throughout their lifetimes, irrespective of the type of job or position. Precarious work affects us all, which means that contingent work is to be found in high-skilled and well-paid work as well as in low-skilled and badly paid work. Contingency, in other words, not only affects low-end service jobs, since the decline in standard employment is a general tendency and we are facing widespread professional insecurity. The new geography of global working life, as well as the instability and inequalities it generates, is described in terms of a precarious class or precarious livelihoods. This is something that we need to face and deal with as an irreversible process. Donkin describes the developments from industry to knowledge services, working at offices to working at home, collective to individual, process to project organization, formal working hours to discretionary time and work across former boundaries. However, his rationale in addressing these trends has to do with what he thinks needs to happen, rather than what he thinks will happen. It is more of a hope than a prediction that work, in the future, will be based on old-fashioned values such as trust and personal relationships. He also hopes for a progression from the economics of scarcity to the economics of enough. Donkin concludes his book with a Charter for the new work a policy agenda, directed at employers and policymakers.

Conclusion
Illustrated by the examples above, three things can be observed when reading these books. The first is that the hazards which they fear and see tendencies towards in their contemporary society have to do with the problematic character of work or the problematic role of work in peoples lives; work fails to give meaning, respect and dignity to some or all individuals and groups. The second observation is that, with the exception of Ross and, to some extent, Donkin, class and gender problems are not on the agenda. Instead, the main focus is on individuals in different forms of work vis-a-vis those in non-work. Lastly, we find that the authors are very cautious about making forecasts.

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Instead, they prefer to talk about different possible, probable and/or preferable futures in relation to a number of social problems they have identified in their society and which they want to change. Handy is, perhaps, the best example of someone who is mistakenly accused of making improbable and unscientific predictions, when, as a matter of fact, he explicitly says that that is exactly what he does not do. So, what can we conclude when considering our observations? These books are worth reading. None of them should be regarded as the most solid scientific texts ever produced, but rather as critical voices concerned about relevant social problems that are empirically detected. Even though the books contain theoretical achievements and contributions, the main reason to read them is their boldness in pointing out some possible and preferable alternatives when it comes to contributing to a better society. For a social scientist, that is not a bad aspiration. Acknowledgement
This review essay is written as part of the research project The future of work yesterday and today. An empirical and theoretical study of forecasts, funded by The Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation.

References
Bergman A, Karlsson JC and Axelsson J (2010) Truth claims and explanatory claims an ontological typology of futures studies. Futures 42(8): 85765. Keynes JM (1972 [1930]) Economic possibilities for our grandchildren. In: Keynes JM Collected Writings, Volume IX. London: Macmillan, 32132. Sayer A (2007) Dignity at work: broadening the agenda. Organization 4(14): 56581.