Nature of the Sample: District of Columbia Poll of 1,138 Adults
This survey of 1,138 adults was conducted February 17 th through February 23 rd , 2014 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NBC4, WAMU, and The Washington Informer. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the District of Columbia were interviewed by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the District from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. To increase coverage, this landline sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. The two samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2010 Census results for age, gender, income, and race. Respondents in the household were selected by asking for the youngest male. Results are statistically significant within 2.9 percentage points. There are 98 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 3.1 percentage points. There are 738 Democrats defined as registered Democrats and those who are almost certain or will probably register as Democrats for the April 1 st primary. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 3.6 percentage points. There are 416 likely Democratic primary voters defined by a probability turnout model. This model determines the likelihood respondents will vote in the April 2014 Democratic primary based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 4.8 percentage points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. DC Adults DC Registered Voters Col Col 100 88 100 37 42 Democrat n/a 77 Republican n/a 5 Independent n/a 17 Other n/a 1 Very liberal n/a 15 Liberal n/a 34 Moderate n/a 34 Conservative n/a 12 Very conservative n/a 5 Men 47 45 Women 53 55 Under 45 44 40 45 or older 56 60 18 to 29 17 13 30 to 44 27 27 45 to 59 22 23 60 or older 34 37 White 39 38 AIrican American 47 49 Latino 8 7 Other 6 5 Southwest 25 25 Northwest 28 28 North Central 27 27 Southeast 20 21 Less than $75,000 59 57 $75,000 or more 41 43 Not college graduate 41 41 College graduate 59 59 Landline 63 68 Cell Phone 37 32 DC Adults DC Registered Voters DC Likely Primary Voters Education DC Region Household Income Interview Type Party Registration` Political Ideology` Gender Age Age NBC4/WAMU/Washington InIormer/Marist Poll DC Adults. Interviews conducted February 17th through February 23rd, 2014, n1138 MOE /- 2.9 percentage points. `DC Registered Voters: n998 MOE /- 3.1 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. !"#$%& () #*& +",-.& / 01 Race DC Democrats* DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters Col Col 100 56 100 Very liberal 17 17 Liberal 38 38 Moderate 31 31 Conservative 10 9 Very conservative 4 4 Yes 85 91 No 15 9 Men 43 40 Women 57 60 Under 45 38 33 45 or older 62 67 18 to 29 9 5 30 to 44 29 28 45 to 59 23 24 60 or older 39 43 White 37 39 AIrican American 53 52 Latino 6 6 Other 4 3 Southwest 23 22 Northwest 29 28 North Central 28 28 Southeast 21 23 Less than $75,000 55 51 $75,000 or more 45 49 Not college graduate 42 37 College graduate 58 63 Landline 71 75 Cell Phone 29 25 NBC4/WAMU/Washington InIormer/Marist Poll DC Potential Democratic Electorate. Interviews conducted February 17th through February 23rd, 2014, n738 MOE /- 3.6 percentage points. DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters: n416 MOE /- 4.8 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. *DC Democrats include registered Democrats and those who are almost certain or will probably to register as Democrats Ior the April 1st primary. **Past participation reIers to previous participation in a DC Democratic Primary Ior Mayor. !"#$%& () #*& +",-.& / 01 DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters Household Income Education Interview Type Gender Age Age Race DC Region DC Democrats* Political Ideology Past Participation** Vincent Gray Muriel Bowser Jack Evans Tommy Wells Andy Shallal Vincent Orange Reta Lewis Carlos Allen Other Undecided Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 28 20 13 12 6 4 3 1 1 12 Strongly support 39 25 12 10 8 5 1 0 0 0 Somewhat support 26 20 18 19 8 3 5 0 0 0 Might vote diIIerently 31 20 16 12 5 8 5 2 0 0 High 35 19 13 12 6 2 2 0 1 8 Moderate 24 22 12 12 6 5 4 1 1 13 Low 26 16 15 10 5 5 4 0 0 18 Southwest 16 17 23 15 9 1 2 1 2 14 Northwest 28 24 12 5 10 3 3 0 1 14 North Central 22 22 11 23 4 3 3 0 0 12 Southeast 48 17 7 2 2 10 3 0 1 9 Less than $75,000 36 19 10 6 4 7 5 0 1 12 $75,000 or more 20 21 14 19 9 1 2 0 1 11 Not college graduate 40 18 10 4 4 7 4 1 1 11 College graduate 21 21 15 16 7 2 3 0 1 12 White 10 18 21 24 10 1 2 1 1 12 AIrican American 41 23 7 3 4 7 3 0 1 13 Other 37 17 13 4 2 3 8 2 5 9 Under 45 31 17 13 14 5 3 5 1 2 8 45 or older 26 22 13 11 7 5 2 0 1 14 Men 28 18 13 15 7 3 4 1 2 10 Women 29 21 13 10 5 5 3 0 1 14 Landline 28 20 13 13 7 3 2 0 1 13 Cell Phone 29 19 11 9 4 7 8 1 2 11 DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters DC Democratic primary Ior mayor including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters Intensity oI Support Enthusiasm about DC Democratic Primary Ior Mayor DC Region Household Income Education Race Age Gender Interview Type NBC4/WAMU/Washington InIormer/Marist Poll DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Interviews conducted February 17th through February 23rd, 2014, n416 MOE /- 4.8 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. NBC4/WAMU/Washington Informer/Marist Poll DC Likely Voter Tables NBC4/WAMU/Washington Informer/Marist Poll February 2014 1 Strongly support Somewhat support Might vote diIIerently Unsure Row Row Row Row 44 36 19 1 Vincent Gray 53 29 18 0 Muriel Bowser 50 32 16 2 Southwest 35 48 17 0 Northwest 49 27 22 2 North Central 45 36 19 1 Southeast 49 34 16 1 Less than $75,000 49 32 18 1 $75,000 or more 39 40 20 1 Not college graduate 53 31 16 0 College graduate 39 39 21 1 White 31 48 21 1 AIrican American 54 28 16 1 Other 39 38 22 0 Under 45 36 46 18 0 45 or older 48 30 20 2 Men 41 40 19 0 Women 47 33 19 2 Landline 44 36 19 1 Cell Phone 46 35 17 2 DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters with a Candidate PreIerence Would you say that you strongly support candidate~ somewhat support candidate~, or do you think that you might vote diIIerently on Primary Day? DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters with a Candidate PreIerence Top Two Democratic Candidates Ior DC Mayor DC Region Household Income Education Race Age Gender Interview Type NBC4/WAMU/Washington InIormer/Marist Poll DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters with a Candidate PreIerence. Interviews conducted February 17th through February 23rd, 2014, n362 MOE /- 5.2 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. NBC4/WAMU/Washington Informer/Marist Poll DC Likely Voter Tables NBC4/WAMU/Washington Informer/Marist Poll February 2014 2 Muriel Bowser Jack Evans Tommy Wells Vincent Gray Vincent Orange Andy Shallal Reta Lewis Carlos Allen Other Undecided Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row 21 18 12 12 9 7 4 1 1 15 Vincent Gray 29 15 9 0 18 4 6 0 2 16 Muriel Bowser 0 23 18 19 5 9 2 2 0 21 Southwest 23 20 14 8 6 11 2 0 2 14 Northwest 24 14 12 13 4 7 4 2 1 19 North Central 16 17 14 13 12 8 2 2 2 14 Southeast 23 21 9 13 13 1 7 0 0 13 Less than $75,000 22 14 12 15 13 6 5 2 1 11 $75,000 or more 20 24 14 10 5 7 4 0 1 15 Not college graduate 24 15 11 16 13 4 6 2 1 10 College graduate 20 20 13 10 7 9 3 1 2 16 White 23 24 15 7 3 11 1 1 1 15 AIrican American 19 15 11 16 15 3 5 1 2 13 Other 28 7 7 9 5 12 6 0 0 25 Under 45 21 15 14 14 13 7 5 2 0 9 45 or older 21 19 12 11 7 7 3 1 2 17 Men 22 19 11 11 10 8 6 1 1 11 Women 21 17 13 12 8 7 3 1 1 17 Landline 22 20 13 9 7 7 3 1 1 17 Cell Phone 19 12 11 19 15 6 6 1 1 9 DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters with a Candidate PreIerence Who is your second choice Ior the Democratic primary Ior mayor in the District: DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters with a Candidate PreIerence Top Two Democratic Candidates Ior DC Mayor Gender Interview Type NBC4/WAMU/Washington InIormer/Marist Poll DC Likely Democratic Primary Voters with a Candidate PreIerence. Interviews conducted February 17th through February 23rd, 2014, n362 MOE /- 5.2 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. DC Region Household Income Education Race Age NBC4/WAMU/Washington Informer/Marist Poll DC Likely Voter Tables NBC4/WAMU/Washington Informer/Marist Poll February 2014 3