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Central Committee

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Report on Political Developments

Adopted By The Central Committee October 23-25, 2 !

International Situation
The international situation has been marked by major developments in the period since we last analyzed it in the January 2009 CC report. The world has undergone the worst economic crisis seen since the second world war much o! the energies o! the governments o! the major economies have been devoted to tackling the crisis and !ormulating the state interventions re"uired the #bama presidency led to e$pectations about a change !rom the %ush &dministration's policies and the last !ew months have shown a mi$ed record the war in &!ghanistan and its spill over into (akistan are posing a serious challenge !or the )*+,&T# !orces. The tensions in -est &sia continue with .sraeli intransigence on (alestine and the continuing e!!orts to isolate .ran. .n /atin &merica0 the !orums !or regional cooperation have been strengthened and the coup in 1onduras was met with united condemnation. The 20th anniversary o! the (eople3s 4epublic o! China was observed at a time when China3s economic power has shown its resilience in the !ace o! the global capitalist crisis. There has been a clear con!irmation o! the trend towards multi+polarity during this period and the growing regionalization in cooperation and e!!orts to !ind solutions to regional problems.

Global Economic Scenario

-hile the impact o! the global economic crisis continues to be !elt across the world0 sections o! the corporate media and !inancial market players have started celebrating an economic recovery. That such celebrations are premature is borne out by the views emanating out o! the annual meeting o! the .56 and -orld %ank held in .stanbul in #ctober 2009. &ccording to the .560 while the worst o! the global economic crisis is over0 recovery will be sluggish and unemployment and poverty will continue to rise through 2070. &ccording to .56 projections0 the world economy a!ter contracting by 7.7 per cent in 2009 is e$pected to e$pand by 8.7 per cent in 2070. -orld trade0 which has e$perienced a contraction o! 77.9 per cent in 2009 is e$pected to grow by 2.9 per cent in 2070. The advanced economies0 which saw an economic contraction o! 8.: per cent in 20090 are projected to witness positive growth o! 7.8 per cent in 2070. ;ven i! this projection turns out to be accurate0 economic activity in the advanced economies is clearly going to be in the doldrums !or some time to come. 1

The .56 holds that even this sluggish recovery in the advanced economies the result o! the !iscal stimulus and money pumped into the economy by the governments across countries and premature withdrawal o! the stimulus measures could <kill the recovery=. The !iscal de!icit in the )* and ;) has reached 72.9 per cent and 2.2 per cent o! >?( respectively0 in 2009. ?espite such !iscal measures0 the unemployment rate in the )* and ;) is projected to rise to 70.7 per cent and 77.@ per cent in 2070 respectively. &ccording to -orld %ank estimates0 up to 99 million A9.9 croreB more people will lose their jobs globally by the end o! 2009 and 90 million A9 croreB more people will be living in e$treme poverty by the end o! 2070. The worst crisis !aced by global capitalism since the >reat ?epression continues to have a devastating impact on the lives and livelihood o! people across the world. The governments o! the advanced capitalist countries tackled the economic crisis by adopting big stimulus packages. %ut the bail out packages were designed to help the big banks0 !inancial institutions and corporates. (utting pro!its be!ore people is the motto. &s a result0 the brunt o! the crisis has been borne by the common people in the !orm o! loss o! jobs0 cut in incomes and loss o! homes. The global economic crisis has led to some changes in the international economic order. This is because the economies most a!!ected by the crisis are the advanced industrialized ones0 while some o! the developing economies0 especially &sian countries like China0 .ndia0 .ndonesia and Cietnam have been relatively less a!!ected. 1owever0 the e!!ort on the part o! the developed countries as well as the .56+-orld %ank is to prevent any basic restructuring o! the economic order underlying imperialist globalisation and preserve the neo+liberal policy regime even as they mouth slogans o! <reshaping the post+ crisis world= and <responsible globalisation=. This trend was apparent in the > 20 summit0 held in (ittsburgh in *eptember 2009. The global economic crisis highlighted the bankruptcy o! the neo+liberal policies. %ut the solution is sought within the same neo+liberal !ramework. This portends another round o! the crisis.

G-20 Summit
&t the >+20 *ummit the 79 countries and the head o! the ;uropean )nion announced that hence!orth the >+20 will be the premier !orum !or international economic cooperation and to manage the global economic order. The >+D will continue to tackle strategic issues. This is an e$plicit admission that the advanced capitalist countries led by the )nited *tates cannot by themselves manage the world capitalist order. -ithout the involvement o! the emerging economic powers like China0 .ndia0 *outh Eorea0 *outh &!rica and %razil0 it is not possible to stabilise the system or shore up its hegemony. The share o! some o! the major developing economies in world output has risen steadily in recent times compared to >+D countries. >iven the relatively higher 2

growth rates witnessed by the developing countries0 the share o! the developing countries in the total >?( o! >+20 Apurchasing power parity termsB is e$pected to increase !rom 89 per cent in 200D to 90 per cent in 2020. .t is also a re!lection o! the decline in the )* domination o! the global economic order which has been a result o! the recent global economic crisis. The transition !rom >+D to >+20 re!lects a shi!t in the relative weight o! some o! the developing countries in the international economic order0 though it does not mark any !undamental shi!t in the global capitalist system. The >+20 cannot represent the interests o! all the developing countries with the absence o! major economies like .ran0 Cenezuela and the countries o! &!rica Abesides *outh &!ricaB. The >+20 summit decided in !avour o! continuing with !iscal stimulus in the near !uture0 but also talked about preparing <e$it strategies= !or an early return to !iscal conservatism. The commitments against <protectionism= and towards an early conclusion o! the -T# ?oha 4ound were also reiterated. &s !ar as restructuring the global !inancial architecture is concerned0 other than the verbal commitment to institute limited banking re!orm to avoid e$cessive risk taking0 some regulation o! derivatives trading0 curbing ta$ havens and limiting the bonuses o! bank managers0 there was nothing substantial. .n terms o! global economic supervision0 the summit has promised to trans!er at least 9 per cent o! the shares in the .56 and at least 8 per cent o! the vote share in the -orld %ank !rom over+represented developed nations to emerging economies. The )* would0 o! course0 retain enough shares to continue e$ercising a veto in the .56.

Dollar Hegemony under Strain

)* imperialism e$ercises its hegemony in the imperialist system through the dominance o! the dollar in trade and !inancial transactions as well as the reserve currency held by most countries across the world. ?ollar hegemony enabled the )* to borrow cheaply !rom the rest o! the world even as its trade de!icit grew to unprecedented levels since the mid+7990s. The market provided by the )* has sustained the e$port+oriented growth regimes under globalisation. The global economic crisis has posed a major challenge !or this edi!ice o! the global economy. The recession in the )* and the conse"uent lowering o! interest rates0 coupled with a burgeoning !iscal de!icit0 has brought the dollar under severe strain. -ith increasing uncertainty over the value o! the dollar0 a range o! countries holding huge !oreign e$change reserves Alike China and JapanB and oil e$porters Alike 4ussia and the >ul! countriesB are e$pressing uneasiness over the predominance o! the dollar both as a reserve currency as well as a medium o! transaction !or crucial commodities like oil. The )* is !aced with a dilemma vis+F+vis the dollar. ?epreciation o! the dollar helps in boosting )* e$ports and bringing down the trade de!icit. %ut i! the dollar depreciates considerably over a period o! time0 the con!idence in the dollar will be shaken !orcing countries to shi!t to alternative currencies. The e!!ort on the part o! the )* is to achieve a transition whereby it succeeds in bringing down its trade de!icit without upsetting the dominance o! the dollar. 3

The only way it can do this is by pressuring countries like China and Japan to revalue their currencies. This is not only !raught with contradictions but global economic recovery will itsel! become tenuous i! the )* market shrinks !or the major e$porting economies. .t also opens up the possibilities o! con!licts between major economic powers and blocs. The only sustainable solution to the problem o! persisting global imbalances is to move away !rom the paradigm o! imperialist globalisation and e$port+ oriented growth and re!ocus on state intervention by individual countries to e$pand domestic demand by enhancing the purchasing power o! the working people. That would also entail an end to the unbridled cross+border !lows o! speculative !inance capital0 which has caused the !inancial meltdown and precipitated the crisis in the !irst place. 1owever0 )* imperialism continues to be the biggest roadblock to this paradigm shi!t0 which can restructure the global economy in a sustainable direction.

West Asia
&ll the steps orchestrated by the )nited *tates to pressurise .ran to give up development o! its nuclear technology !ailed to yield results. The #bama administration announced that it is prepared to engage with .ran even while mounting pressure on it to stop enrichment o! nuclear !uel. The )* administration has been compelled to pay heed to the international opinion0 especially the stance taken by 4ussia and China against any !urther sanctions against .ran. -ashington decided to participate in direct talks with .ran. The talks were held in >eneva on #ctober 7 between .ran and the !ive permanent members o! the *ecurity Council plus >ermany. .t had a positive outcome with .ran entering into !urther cooperation with the .&;& over its nuclear programme and secondly agreeing to send a part o! its uranium stockpile !or reprocessing to 4ussia. The main threat to peace arises !rom .srael0 which continues to level allegations o! secret nuclear weapons programme in .ran and using that as a prete$t to threaten .ran with a military strike. ,ot surprisingly0 the #bama administration3s decision to engage .ran was met with staunch opposition !rom .srael and the .sraeli lobby in the )*.

Palestine
.srael has also spurned the #bama administration3s initiative to revive the negotiations !or a settlement o! the .srael+(alestinian issue. .srael has taken an adamant stand vis a vis the )* demand not to e$tend the settlements in the -est %ank and Jerusalem. The rightwing .sraeli government shows no intention o! stopping new settlements being built. &t the same time0 the situation in the >aza and the -est %ank remains serious0 compounded by (alestinian disunity and continued .sraeli aggression. The )nited ,ations *pecial 4apporteur0 4ichard >oldstone0 has accused .srael o! war crimes in >aza during last year3s military operation against (alestinians. The )nited *tates sought to bail out .srael in this regard. The 4

!act is that no peace process has taken o!! in the 5iddle ;ast on the ground. -est &sia continues to remain a dangerous !lashpoint in world politics and much would depend on the progress o! the )*+.ran engagement in the coming months. &ll present indications show that the #bama administration has shown neither the determination nor the capacity to !orce .srael to conciliate in the interests o! regional peace and stability.

Afghanistan
*oon a!ter assuming o!!ice0 (resident #bama sent in 200000 more &merican troops in &!ghanistan. This was in line with his approach that the threat to &merican security and o! terrorism emanates !rom &!ghanistan and that the war on .ra" was misplaced. 1owever0 in the recent months0 the con!lict has intensi!ied in &!ghanistan with the dramatic increase in the Taliban activities. The )* and ,&T# troops have su!!ered increasing casualties and public opinion in the -est is turning against the continuance o! the war. The members o! the ,&T# countries are reluctant to commit more troops !or combat operations. This has compelled %arrack #bama to conduct a review o! the )* strategy in &!ghanistan. The )* commander has re"uested !or a massive increase o! :00000 &merican troops to contain the situation. This is over and above the 280000 )* troops already in place. The #bama administration seems to be reluctant to make such a big increase in troops. &t the same time the e!!orts at Gnation buildingG and implanting democracy is also proving intractable. The &mericans hope to strengthen the capacity o! the &!ghan armed !orces and create a more e!!ective government which has not been provided by 1amid Earzai. The (residential election held in &ugust was declared to be an outright victory !or Earzai. %ut a!ter allegations o! !raud0 the )nited ,ations watchdog committee has declared that there has been widespread !raud and under )* direction e!!orts began to have a run+o!! election. 6inally0 the election tribunal has declared that Earzai has got :9.@ per cent vote. Earzai has been !orced to agree !or a run+o!! election on ,ovember @. The &mericans want a government o! national unity which will include the principal rival o! Earzai0 &bdullah &bdullah. This again shows how tenuous has been the e!!orts to create a credible government. "A#pa$" %trate&y The )* strategy envisages &!ghanistan and (akistan together as a battleground against &l Haeda. This G&!pakG strategy attaches importance to !ighting the Taliban and !undamentalist !orces within (akistan particularly in the border regions as part o! the struggle in &!ghanistan. This re"uires the )nited *tates relying on the (akistani military while paying lip service to the civilian government. The )nited *tates is prodding the (akistani government and military to conduct operations in the border provinces against the Taliban and &l Haeda !orces entrenched there.

US- ussia !ies

The #bama administration is attempting to GresetG relations with 4ussia and reverse the chill in the )*+4ussia ties which characterised the %ush era. ,egotiations are at an advanced stage with regard to concluding new arms reduction agreement to replacing the e$isting strategic arms limitation agreement which lapses on ?ecember 9. (resident #bama took a major step in reversing the %ush administration3s plan to deploy missiles under the 5issile ?e!ence *ystem in ;astern ;urope. This had been strongly opposed by 4ussia which saw the move as an attempt to gain nuclear superiority over it. (arallel to this development0 ,&T# has also o!!ered a comprehensive review o! its strategic cooperation with 4ussia. 4ussia has in a major step o!!ered transit !acilities !or the ,&T# troops to dispatch military cargo to &!ghanistan which will substantially reduce the alliance3s dependence on (akistan.

"bama Presidency
%arrack #bama assumed the presidency o! the )nited *tates at a time when the )nited *tates was !aced with a serious economic crisis and when the %ush administration3s aggressive use o! military !orce had reached a dead end. &!ghanistan and .ra" were stark reminders o! this reality. ,o one country0 even a superpower0 can succeed in tackling the major challenges without getting a large measure o! international cooperation. .t was in response to this reality that %arrack #bama has sought to give up the unilateralist style o! the %ush administration and has been engaged in rebuilding bridges with the ;uropean allies. The announcement o! seeking engagement with .ran0 initiating moves to revive the peace process between .srael and (alestine0 the e!!orts to GresetG relations with 4ussia and the recent announcement that it would engage with countries like 5yanmar and *udan despite keeping sanctions on them0 are all e!!orts in this direction. #bama announced the closure o! the >uantanamo detention centre by January 2070. %ut #bama has to act within the !ramework o! the imperialist interests o! the )nited *tates. #n the .srael+(alestinian con!lict0 #bama will not be able to act !irmly against .srael as the ?emocratic (arty is more committed to .srael. #n .ran too #bama is seeking to gather wider support to isolate and pressurise .ran. &!ter nine months o! the #bama administration0 the test is going to be the war in &!ghanistan. ?omestically0 #bama is struggling to get his health re!orm legislation pushed through Congress and he is !acing strong opposition. &lready he has been !orced to dilute the re!orm plan by giving up the public option i.e. a public sector health insurance company which would o!!er an alternative to the private insurance companies. The moves o! the #bama administration in consulting and carrying its allies with it0 engaging with 4ussia and China to seek their cooperation in &merica3s political and diplomatic strategy and de+emphasising the use o! military !orce and !oregrounding political diplomacy and manoeuvres to isolate countries which it sees as inimical to its interests are all part o! the process o! repositioning the )nited *tates at a time when its relative decline as a global economic power and the limitations o! unilateral actions have become all too evident. The basic !ramework o! &merican interests and its !oreign policy 6

goals have not changed substantially.

Euro#e$ Shift to

ight

The ;uropean parliament elections held in June led to a distinct shi!t to the right. 4ightwing parties gained across ;urope0 with the e$ception o! >reece. .n elections to the national governments too0 the trend has !avoured the right. *ome o! the !ar right parties also gained as in the ,etherlands. &!ter the victory o! the rightwing parties in 6rance and .taly in 200D0 in >ermany the elections held in *eptember 2009 has resulted in a Christian ?emocrat+6ree ?emocratic (arty coalition with &ngela 5erkel returning as the Chancellor. .n %ritain0 the /abour (arty looks set to lose the ne$t election in 2070 to the Conservatives. The success o! the right wing parties is taking place at a time when recession has badly hit the ;uropean economies and unemployment has reached high levels. The neo+liberal policies are responsible !or this crisis0 yet the rightwing wedded to these policies have not been rejected. The voters have rejected the social democratic parties in government as they have pursued these same policies. The reason lies in the bankruptcy o! the social democratic parties who embraced neo+liberal policies and who have cut down social wel!are measures and promoted privatization. .n 6rance0 the socialists paid the price !or this as did the *ocial ?emocratic (arty in >ermany which had entered into a coalition with the Christian ?emocrats. .n (ortugal0 the social democrats retained power even though they lost their majority in the parliament. The e$ception is >reece where the elections held in #ctober0 2009 has led to the de!eat o! the right wing government which was totally discredited0 resulting in a decisive victory !or the socialist party. The absence o! an e!!ective /e!t alternative0 the discrediting o! the social democrats and the growing discontent with the established policies have led to gains by the right wing. .n times o! growing unemployment0 immigrant labour is an easy target. The right+wing and !ar right parties targeted migrants and cashed in on the insecurities among people a!!ected by the crisis. The /e!t did well in >ermany where the ?ie /inke got nearly 72 per cent o! the vote and D0 seats in (arliament. The /e!t party !ormed with the merger o! the (?* and the /e!twing which le!t the *(? provided a coherent /e!t plat!orm and gained votes !rom *(? supporters. .n both (ortugal and >reece0 the Communist (arties retained their electoral support by and large with the (C( alliance winning 79 seats and the EE; alliance getting 27 seats.

%atin America
.n the /atin &merican continent0 the change in the alignments ushered in by the success o! /e!t+oriented governments coming into power has continued to play out. The victory o! a /e!t wing candidate in ;l *alvador as (resident being the latest. -e had also previously noted that anti+/e!t !orces are also active. .n 1onduras0 the elected (resident Ielaya who had joined the &/%& 7

Athe %olivarian &lternativeB grouping was ousted in a military coup. This coup had the backing o! big business and other rightwing !orces. The coup has been universally condemned. The #rganisation o! &merican *tates A#&*B adopted a resolution calling !or the restoration o! (resident Ielaya. Cenezuela0 %olivia and ,icaragua took the lead in rallying the opposition to this blatant attack on democracy. ;ven the )nited *tates had to go on record disapproving the coup0 though it is against taking any steps against the coup plotters and does not want the reinstatement o! Ielaya as the (resident. The changing political mood in /atin &merica is also witnessed by the decision o! the #&* at its meeting in (edro *ula to remove the e$clusion o! Cuba !rom the !orum. ;arlier the *ummit o! &mericas in (ort o! *pain unanimously demanded the li!ting o! the )* blockade against Cuba. Cuba has welcomed the move even as it has stated that it has no intention to rejoin the organisation. The economic crisis has a!!ected the region badly. The economic per!ormance o! %razil0 the biggest country0 has been relatively better. Cenezuela had had to !ace recession due to a sharp drop in oil revenues. Cuba is also e$periencing economic di!!iculties because o! the three hurricanes which caused devastation last year and the impact o! the current global crisis on its e$ports. The Colombian rightwing government agreed in July to allow &merican troops to use seven o! its military bases. This led to strong protests !rom Cenezuela and suspension o! diplomatic relations !or some time. &s against this0 the )* had to wind up its military base in ;cuador as the >overnment there re!used permission !or !urther use o! the base.

&a#an Elections
The long standing rule o! the /iberal ?emocratic (arty A/?(B came to an end in the *eptember parliamentary elections. The victory o! the ?emocratic (arty o! Japan A?(JB has ushered in a new era. This is the !irst time that a non+/?( government has come into o!!ice with a stable majority. The ?(J has talked o! greater &sia cooperation and less dependence on the )nited *tates. .t is also not such an ardent votary o! privatisation as the /?(0 and has promised to reverse the privatisation o! the postal service. This political change has come at a time when Japan has undergone a serious recession which has accentuated its long term decline as an economic power. .t is estimated that China will overcome Japan in a year3s time as the second largest economy in the world in terms o! >?(.

Si'tieth Anni(ersary of )hinese e(olution

The 20th anniversary o! the Chinese revolution has been noted as a historic event not only in &sia but also in the whole world. The event has !ocused attention on the phenomenal rise o! China as a global power with its ever+ increasing in!luence on the world development. .t has been le!t to the -orld 8

%ank president to point out recently that the economic crisis has led to a decline o! the )*'s standing as a global power. 1e could !oresee that China will have an economy as big as the )*'s by 207D. &lready0 it is clear that China has become the !irst country to emerge out o! the global economic downturn with an e$pected D per cent >?( growth in 2009 and there is acknowledgement that China will have a major role to play in any restructuring o! the world economic order in the coming decades.

)limate )hange !al*s

The Copenhagen *ummit !or climate change negotiations is going to be held in ?ecember. This con!erence has to work out an agreement to succeed the Eyoto protocol which lapses in 2072. *o !ar the e!!orts to get a !resh agreement on cutting >reen 1ouse gas emissions and adoption o! appropriate low emission technologies have not made progress. ;arlier the %ush administration had re!used to rati!y the Eyoto protocol and took an obdurate stand re!using to give any commitment on reduction o! emissions. &!ter the #bama administration took o!!ice0 this stance has changed. The )nited *tates has joined the negotiations but along with the industrialised countries it re!uses to make any substantial reduction in emissions while continuing to argue !or targetted emission reduction by major developing countries like China and .ndia. They are also not !orthcoming on providing the !inances to developing countries !or adopting appropriate clean technologies. >iven the grave problem o! global warming and climate change which has assumed alarming proportions0 progressive !orces the world over should unitedly e$ert pressure on their respective governments and at the global negotiating !orums to ensure that the advanced industrialised countries are set binding emission reduction targets0 suitable en!orcement and accountability mechanisms. They should demand that the industrialised countries make ade"uate !unds available to the developing countries to meet the challenges o! climate change and !or adopting appropriate technologies.

De(elo#ments +n +ndia,s -eighbourhood

.n the last !ew months important developments have taken place in the countries neighbouring .ndia. Pa$istan ' The situation in (akistan has deteriorated with the growing attacks by the !undamentalist and e$tremist !orces. The (akistan &rmy conducted operations to clear the *wat valley o!! the local Taliban who had taken control. The Taliban retaliated with a spate o! bombings and suicide attacks. The killing o! %aitullah 5ehsud in a drone attack in *outh -aziristan sparked o!! more daring attacks including the attack on the &rmy head"uarters in 4awalpindi. The (akistan &rmy !inally began military operations in *outh -aziristan. The #bama administration is e$tending assistance to try and stabilise the situation. 4ecently the )* Congress has passed a law to e$tend J @.9 billion as 9

aid. There is tremendous opposition to the )* intervention among the (akistani people. The conditions attached to the Eerry+/ugar bill have evoked strong protests within (akistan. These conditions which include certi!ication that (akistan is acting against the e$tremist !orces is seen as an in!ringement on the sovereignty o! (akistan. (akistani public opinion is particularly in!lamed over the attacks by the )* drone aircra!t in the &!ghanistan+(akistan border areas which have resulted in civilian casualties. There is still the problem with the .*. and a section o! the establishment being so!t on the e$tremist groups like the /eT and its o!!shoot the Jamat ud ?awa which are targetting .ndia. This is seen in the manner in which the Chie! o! the latter 1a!iz *ayeed is being dealt with. The democratic !orces in (akistan have a major task o! rallying the people against the growing attacks by the !undamentalists and e$tremists and ensuring that the civilian government does not surrender to the )* dictates which erode the sovereignty o! the country. %ri (an$a' .n *ri /anka0 the /TT; was crushed militarily and its leaders including (rabhakaran killed when the !inal assault took place in June in the 5ullaithivu region. -ith this the /TT; has ceased to be an e!!ective !orce. Two and a hal! lakh Tamil people are in re!ugee camps. The .ndian government has to urge the *ri /ankan government to take speedy steps !or their return to their homes and proper rehabilitation especially in view o! the joint statement made during the visit o! the 6oreign *ecretary and ,ational *ecurity &dvisor to *ri /anka that the displaced people would be returned to their homes in 7D0 days. ?uring the recent visit o! 5(s o! the ruling alliance o! Tamilnadu to *ri /anka the government assured that 900000 people will be rehabilitated in their homes within the ne$t two weeks. The Central >overnment !acilitated the visit to *ri /anka o! 5(s belonging only to the ruling alliance o! Tamilnadu. This was a partisan attitude. There have been a number o! instances o! attacks on !ishermen !rom Tamilnadu by the *ri /ankan security !orces. The .ndian government should work out joint patrolling to ensure that the legitimate !ishing activities are not curbed. There are concerns about human rights violations which needs to be investigated and addressed by the *ri /ankan government. 5ore importantly0 the *ri /ankan government has to take concrete steps to arrive at a political settlement by !inalising the autonomy package !or the Tamil speaking areas. (resident 4ajapakse is planning to hold elections early ne$t year and to take up the matter a!ter that. This would !urther delay the process o! a political settlement. The .ndian government must be active in urging the *ri /ankan government to work out a political settlement without delay. )epal' The 5aoist leader (rachanda resigned !rom the (rime 5inistership in 5ay a!ter !ailing to get the army chie! removed. The (resident had intervened to restore the army chie! who had de!ied the government3s instructions regarding the retirement o! si$ generals. *ubse"uently0 a coalition government has been !ormed headed by 5adhav ,epal o! the C(,A)5/B. The ,epali Congress is part o! the coalition government. The 5aoists are boycotting the parliament and there is a stalemate in the peace process and 10

the work to be done in the !ormulation o! a new Constitution. The .ndian government did not !avour the move o! (rachanda to dismiss the army chie!. The 5aoists have said that they will participate in the Constituent &ssembly only i! the (residential order reinstating the army chie! is declared to be illegal. &t the heart o! the matter is the "uestion o! integrating the 5aoist combatants into the armed !orces. ?iscussions among the major political parties to end the impasse have so !ar not yielded results. Ban&ladesh ' &!ter the sweeping victory o! the &wami /eague alliance and the !ormation o! the *heikh 1asina government0 the right wing and !undamentalist !orces su!!ered a setback. 1owever0 the !undamentalist !orces are still active and reorganising themselves. The !irst major challenge which the government had to !ace was the %?4 rebellion in which a number o! army o!!icers were killed. The economic crisis has badly a!!ected %angladesh and there is a steep increase in the price o! !ood items and essential commodities. The prospects !or cooperation between .ndia and %angladesh have brightened with the new government in o!!ice. There has been e$pansion o! trade and transit !acilities. The %angladesh government has taken some steps to curb the e$tremist groups operating !rom its soil against .ndia.

egional )oo#eration
?uring this period0 the trend o! GregionalisationG has become more evident in world politics. /atin &merica has been prominent in e!!orts to !ind regional solutions to con!licts and crisis. The stand taken by %razil and other /atin &merican countries on the coup against the democratically elected government in 1onduras is an e$ample. The &*;&, !orum o! ten countries has made signi!icant progress in economic and regional cooperation. *imilarly0 the *hanghai Cooperation #rganisation has been steadily advancing. The %4.C process consisting o! %razil0 4ussia0 .ndia and China has gained some momentum at the meeting o! the head o! !our *tates at Kekaterinburg in 4ussia in July. China hosted a trilateral meeting with Japan and *outh Eorea on #ctober 70 with the aim o! !orming a ;ast &sia ;conomic Community. 5ore and more countries want to join such projects relating to security and development. The )nited *tates is !inding it di!!icult to get its way in multilateral !orums on a number o! issues. .t is there!ore0 entering into bilateral agreements with individual countries. 4egional !orums !or developing mutual cooperation obviate the need !or dependence on a major power. The development o! such regional !orums o! cooperation are part o! the trend towards the strengthening o! multi polarity and points to the inability in the present+day world !or one super power to direct and dominate world a!!airs. This underlines the necessity to strengthen regional cooperation in *outh &sia through *&&4C which has lagged behind due to political barriers between the countries o! the region.

11

National Situation
The !ive month period since the /ok *abha elections in 5ay and the !ormation o! the second )(& government provides the scope o! this report. The Congress+led government is continuing with the approach which it adopted in its last term. #n the one hand it has signalled that it will pursue neo+liberal policies. #n the other hand it will provide some relie! and social wel!are measures to so!ten the impact o! the policies it implements. The Congress thinks that this approach !etched it dividends in the elections and this way it can sustain its pro+rich0 neo+liberal policies. The government announced various programmes to be !ul!illed in the !irst hundred days. .t announced !urther measures to liberalise 6?. in various spheres. .t announced that it will go in !or disinvestment o! the pro!itable (*)s in order to ensure Gpeople3s participationG in the public sector. The ;conomic *urvey advocated a big push !or neo+liberal policies on all !ronts. The direct ta$es code announced by the government is regressive. The government announced its commitment to push through the legislation to allow !oreign education institutions into the country. &t the same time0 the government has announced it will bring a 6ood *ecurity %ill it has got the 4ight to ;ducation &ct passed in parliament in the )nion %udget it has announced that the minimum wage under ,4;>& will be increased to 4s. 700 per day. The government also proposed to amend the Constitution to increase representation o! women in the panchayats and local bodies to 90 per cent. &t the end o! a hundred days0 the record o! the >overnment was dismal. 6ailure to curb price rise o! essential commodities and to tackle drought related problems was accompanied by signing o! the &*;&, 6ree Trade &greement and resiling !rom its positions on ?oha round in -T# and Climate Change talks. The government backtracked in bringing the one+third reservation !or women in (arliament and legislatures.

Economic Situation
The .ndian economy0 while not being as a!!ected as the industrialised countries by the global economic crisis0 has slowed down considerably. >?( growth rate is e$pected to be around 2 per cent in 2009+700 down !rom 2.@ per cent in 200D+09. The slowdown has particularly a!!ected the agriculture and allied sectors and manu!acturing. Job losses continue0 particularly in the e$port sectors. & dra!t report prepared by the ),CT&? on the L.mpact o! >lobal *lowdown on .ndia's ;$port and ;mployment' A5ay 2009B shows that in sectors such as te$tiles0 gems and jewellery0 ores and minerals0 the total job loss was around 7.72 million A77.2 lakhB in 200D+09 and it is estimated to be around 7.8 million A78 lakhB in 2009+70.

12

Agrarian Scenario
%evere Dro*&ht The agrarian scenario in the country has been very bleak over the last !ew months. The peasantry and the rural poor0 already reeling under an acute agrarian crisis0 have been hit hard by de!icient monsoon and severe drought conditions during the khari! sowing. This has led to a drastic reduction in the acreage o! all the major crops. 28 o! the 82 5et *ub+?ivisions in the country received de!icient rain!all Aa short!all ranging !rom +20 per cent to +99 percentB. ,early 800 districts across the country have been declared as drought hit or having drought+like conditions. There has been a short!all in paddy cultivation over the normal cropped area by nearly @2 lakh hectares0 i.e.0 lower than the last year by 27.09 lakh hectares. The case o! other crops like bajra0 maize0 jowar0 groundnut and sugarcane is also not encouraging. &t the advent o! the 4abi season many states are !acing a situation o! unprecedented !loods thereby destroying the standing crops. >iven such a situation0 the problems only worsened with unremunerative prices0 dismal support system and ever increasing input costs. The recent !loods have caused untold damage and loss o! lives in many states. Earnataka and &ndhra (radesh are the worst hit. %ihar0 #rissa0 >oa0 5aharashtra0 &ssam and %engal and parts o! Eerala have also witnessed the loss o! standing crops due to heavy rain!all and !loods.

ASEA- .ree !rade Agreement

The 6ree Trade &greement with the &*;&, countries will seriously a!!ect the !armers cultivating coconut0 tea0 co!!ee0 pepper etc.0 the large !ishing community as well as workers in te$tile and light manu!acturing goods industry. The impact is bound to be particularly severe in states like Eerala0 Earnataka0 Tamilnadu0 ,orth+;ast and the coastal regions. &ll these moves betray a total disregard !or the democratic institutions o! the country and lack transparency. There is a need to !orge the broadest possible unity against such moves. The people o! Eerala rose up in protest against this move and built a human chain which became a wall !rom one end o! the state to the other on 2nd #ctober. Bt+ Brin,al The government has also been playing to the tune o! big agri+businesses like 5onsanto Awhich is also on the %oard o! the .ndo+)* Enowledge .nitiativeB and the autonomy o! agricultural research in the country has been compromised by engaging such companies in planning as well as research and development. The high royalties that these seed monopolies get have caused !urther hardship !or !armers. The recent decision o! the >;&C to approve %t %rinjal !or environmental release was also without proper independent sa!ety assessment and some o! the members on the ;$pert Committee had con!lict o! interests. 1owever0 the intervention by &.E*0 scientists and voluntary groups !orced the government to put the matter on hold !or wider consultation. >enetically modi!ied crops are to be used only 13

a!ter ade"uate trials and sa!eguards are put in place. *uch technology is now sought to be monopolised by the multinationals and their domestic collaborators. The use o! biotechnology must be done through public research institutions and they cannot be the preserve o! the private sector.

elentless Price

ise

The prices o! !ood items and other essential commodities have continued their relentless rise. The continuous increase in the prices o! !oodgrains0 edible oil0 dal0 sugar and vegetables is causing immense hardship to the people. &lthough the overall -(. in!lation rate continues to be less than 7 per cent in #ctober 20090 the annual rate o! in!lation !or primary articles is over D per cent. .n!lation measured by the C(. A.ndustrial -orkersB stood at 77.@2 per cent in &ugust 2009 and C(. A&gricultural /abourersB stood at 78.79 per cent in *eptember 2009. &mong the major economies o! the world0 only Cenezuela and )kraine currently have higher consumer price in!lation rates than .ndia. .t is clear that the )(& >overnment has !ailed to check the continuing rise in prices o! !ood and other essential commodities. The demands made by the /e!t parties to prohibit speculative !utures trading in essential commodities and crackdown on hoarding have been ignored. The >overnment has also re!used to supply items like pulses and edible oils through the (?*. The oil price hikes e!!ected in July 2009 have not been rescinded. The inaction o! the >overnment on the price !ront has led to increased su!!ering !or the masses.

Disin(estment
The )(& >overnment has already embarked upon large scale disinvestment o! (*)s in the name o! increasing <people's ownership= and raising resources. The >overnment has recently decided to divest 9 per cent stake in ,T(C and another 70 per cent stake in *atluj Jal Cidyut ,igam /td. ?ivestment o! stakes have already occurred in ,1(C and #il .ndia. -ith the ,T(C decision0 the >overnment has gone back on its commitment not to disinvest shares in the navratna (*)s. ?ecision has been taken to o!!load the minority stakes o! (hoeni$ Kule /td. held by &ndrew Kule A22 per centB to a private company. -hile the !irst %udget o! the >overnment had mentioned only 4s. 7720 crore as disinvestment proceeds0 the >overnment seems to be working on the aggressive neoliberal agenda set by the ;conomic *urvey0 which had earmarked a 4s. 29000 crore disinvestment target !or the current !inancial year.

egressi(e !a' )ode

The ?irect Ta$es Code %ill unveiled by the >overnment in &ugust 2009 !or public discussion contains several regressive provisions and i! passed would lead to a signi!icant loss o! revenues. The ta$ slabs contained in the code proposes to levy income ta$ at 70 per cent up to 4s 70 lakh0 20 per cent between 4s 70 lakh to 4s 29 lakh and 80 per cent above 4s 29 lakh. .t is estimated that over 9@ per cent o! the 8 crore odd ta$payers in .ndia will be 14

paying income ta$ at just 70 per cent0 in case the code is adopted. The ta$ code also proposes to bring down the wealth ta$ rate !rom 7 per cent to a miniscule 0.29 per cent0 while raising the ta$ slab !rom the current limit o! 4s. 80 lakh to a net wealth e$ceeding 4s. 90 crore. Corporate ta$ rate is also proposed to be cut !rom 80 per cent to 29 per cent and the *ecurities Transactions Ta$ abolished. These proposals will not only lead to a serious loss o! ta$ revenues but also goes against the principle o! e"uity. The proposals lay bare the neo+liberal intent o! the )(& >overnment in making the rich richer by cutting ta$es and also e$pose its lack o! commitment in raising resources to !und social wel!are measures

"ther -eo-%iberal eforms

The )(& >overnment is in the process o! initiating or implementing neo+ liberal re!orms in several areas0 which were resisted by the /e!t parties during its previous tenure. The bill to amend the insurance laws and increase the 6?. limit in the insurance sector is being pushed. The 2 billion dollar loan !rom the -orld %ank to recapitalise some o! the public sector banks portends !urther steps to disinvest shares o! the nationalised banks. /egislation to allow 6?. in higher education is also on the anvil. &n .ndia+)* ;ducation Council is in the process o! being set up. .nstitutionalization o! private universities and opening the doors !or !oreign education providers is a major aspect o! the higher education re!orm agenda being pursued by the >overnment.

W!" Doha ound

6ollowing the .ndian Commerce 5inister's visit to -ashington0 the >overnment hosted a 5inisterial 5eeting in ,ew ?elhi in *eptember 2009 in order to break the <deadlock= in the ?oha 4ound o! the -T#. The negotiations got deadlocked earlier because o! the developed countries like the )* and ;) re!using to cut back on their huge agricultural subsidies and the )* strongly opposing the minimum sa!eguards !or protecting the livelihood o! millions o! small !armers in developing countries against the un!air competition !rom subsidized cheap imports !rom developed countries. >iven the positions adopted by the developed countries on agriculture0 ,&5& and T4.(* and the backdrop o! the global economic crisis0 developing countries like .ndia have little to gain !rom the ?oha 4ound o! negotiations. Ket the )(& >overnment is playing a proactive role to success!ully conclude the ?oha 4ound in the 5inisterial Con!erence scheduled in >eneva in ,ovember 2009. .t is clear that the >overnment is succumbing to pressure !rom the )* and diluting its position.

)limate )hange -egotiations

&nother crucial area where the )(& >overnment is giving in to )* pressure is the Climate Change negotiations. The 5inister !or ;nvironment and 6orests has already signalled an about turn on .ndia's long held negotiating position0 along with other developing countries0 that the developed countries like the )* whose carbon dio$ide emission per capita is 20 times more than that o! .ndia0 should !irst cut their emission levels sharply to bring about a 15

convergence between the emission levels o! developed and developing countries. The ;nvironment 5inister has e$plicitly argued !or abandoning the developing country grouping + > @@ M and lining up with the developed countries in the climate change negotiations0 in order to secure a permanent seat in the ), *ecurity Council. *uch a position would not only reduce the pressure on the developed countries to take substantial binding cuts in emissions but also lead to developing countries like .ndia taking binding emission cuts without technology trans!er in !avourable terms. *uch a capitulation !rom the .ndian side be!ore the Copenhagen Con!erence scheduled !or ?ecember 2009 would harm the interests o! the developing countries as well as the majority o! the .ndian people.

)i(il -uclear %iability /ill

.n line with the .ndo+)* nuclear deal0 the )(& >overnment is in the process o! !inalizing a ,uclear /iability %ill which seeks to cap the compensation amount to be paid in case o! an accident in a nuclear !acility0 in keeping with the Cienna Convention on Civil /iability !or ,uclear ?amage and the Convention on *upplementary Compensation !or ,uclear ?amage. The amount o! J :90 million A4s 2000 croreB0 at which the compensation is likely to be capped0 is e$ceedingly low compared to the likely scale o! losses in case o! a nuclear accident. .t is noteworthy that around the same amount was paid as compensation by the )nion Carbide !ollowing the %hopal >as disaster0 which when divided among 2 lakh victims amounted to only J900 A4s. 28000B per victim. 5oreover0 the .ndian bill is reported to have provisions whereby the liability in the case o! accident would lie with the operator0 i.e. the ,uclear (ower Corporation and not the supplier companies. This is being done solely at the behest o! the )* companies0 >; and -estinghouse0 which have already secured a site each !or nuclear power plants in >ujarat and &ndhra (radesh Aestimated cost o! each reactor being J 70 billionB.

0G /asin Gas Price

The )(& government3s acting at the behest o! big corporates was e$posed when the (rime 5inister himsel! got involved in resolving the dispute between the two &mbani brothers. The 4eliance .ndustries /td had got the >overnment to raise the price o! E> basin3s gas to J :.2 per unit in *eptember 200@. This was done through a recommendation o! ;>o5. %y this the government acted against the interests o! the ,T(C and the !ertiliser companies.

+ndo-US elations And .oreign Policy

Just as the Congress+led government is committed to pursuing the neo+liberal policies0 so also it is !irm on strengthening the strategic ties with the )nited *tates. The visit o! )* *ecretary o! *tate0 1illary Clinton to ?elhi led to a joint statement in which it was announced that an ;nd )se 5onitoring &greement has been arrived at. This will enable inspection by )* teams o! weapons purchased by .ndia on a regular basis. .ndia has also agreed to adopt a law on limiting the liability in case o! nuclear accidents !or the )* suppliers o! 16

nuclear reactors which has been re!erred to above. The much !launted )*+.ndia G*trategic (artnershipG has raised certain uncom!ortable "uestions !or the 5anmohan *ingh government. The #bama administration took the initiative within the >+D !orum in .taly !or denying advanced nuclear technology !or reprocessing and enrichment !or countries like .ndia which have not signed the ,(T. The >+D countries would like these guidelines incorporated by the ,uclear *uppliers >roup o! :9 countries. -hen this happens0 .ndia will not be able to access ;,4 technology as per the 1yde &ct. -ith the stance adopted by the #bama administration there is growing prospects o! pressure being stepped up on .ndia to sigh the discriminatory ,(T and the CT%T. The )nited *tates situates the .ndia+)* deal within the ,uclear non+(roli!eration architecture and it has become an instrument !or the )* to pressurise .ndia on various counts especially !oreign policy. The stepped up military assistance to (akistan despite the !ull awareness that such military hardware can be used by (akistan in any con!lict with .ndia has e$posed the regional power game o! the )nited *tates which is working against .ndian interests. The )nited *tates is also mounting relentless pressure on the .ndian government and the military establishment to buy &merican weapons. The &mericans want the order !or 722 !ighter plans worth 4s. 900000 crores to be handed over to &merican companies. The &mericans have mounted pressure on .ndia to resile !rom the positions it took on the ?oha round o! negotiations and the climate change talks and to !all in line with its &!pak strategy. The !iasco surrounding the .ndia+(akistan joint statement during the ,&5 summit at *harm el *heikh should be seen in this conte$t. The statement delinked the issue o! counter terrorism !rom the dialogue between the two countries. .t !urther re!erred to (akistan raising the issue o! %aluchistan. *uch !ormulations creeping into the joint statement should be seen in the background o! the pressure mounted by the )nited *tates. The )nited *tates is eager to see that the .ndia+(akistan dialogue is resumed and a situation conducive to the shi!ting o! (akistani troops !rom the ;astern borders to the -est is created. The )nited *tates would like to e$tend the &!pak strategy to the .ndia+(akistan problem mainly centred on Eashmir. #ur (arty is in !avour o! the resumption o! dialogue between .ndia and (akistan. &t the same time0 .ndia should keep up the pressure so that tangible steps are taken by (akistan to show that they are acting against the terrorist groups operating within their country. The !lawed !ormulations in the joint statement resulted in the options o! the .ndian government getting limited.

+ndia-)hina

elations

There has been a concerted campaign in the corporate media portraying China as an alleged threat to .ndia3s security. 4eports appeared in the media o! an increase in incursions by Chinese security !orces on the /ine o! &ctual Control. ;ven a report was !abricated o! injuries to two .ndian soldiers in !iring. %oth the .ndian and Chinese governments clari!ied that there have 17

been no such incidents or increase in tensions on the border. The announcement o! the visit o! the ?alai /ama to &runachal (radesh and the Chinese government3s disapproval o! the visit o! the (rime 5inister to &runachal (radesh !or the election campaign have e$acerbated the situation. %oth sides had signed an agreement on (olitical (arameters and >uiding (rinciples !or the *ettlement o! the .ndia+China %oundary Huestion in &pril 2009. Till the settlement is worked out0 both sides are committed to maintain Gpeace and tran"uilityG along the /ine o! &ctual Control. .t is evident that a calculated e!!ort is on to create misunderstanding and mutual suspicions between the two countries. The .ndo+)* strategic alliance is being projected as a counterweight to China by the )* and interested "uarters in .ndia. 6urther0 the stepped up campaign against China as a security threat to .ndia is being motivated by the lobbies which want to !urther deepen .ndia+)* strategic ties and ensure that .ndia becomes a major buyer o! )* weapons. The heads o! )* armed !orces during their periodic visits to .ndia highlight the military threat being posed by China to the region. This attempt to spoil .ndia+China relations should be seen in the background o! the steadily improving ties and cooperation between .ndia and China. China has become .ndia3s biggest trading partner replacing the )*. .ndia+China trade has touched J 92 billion in 200D outstripping the target set. There are shared interests regarding climate change0 >+200 terrorism etc. The .ndia+ China dialogue on climate change is taking place in #ctober. The :th meeting o! the !oreign ministers o! .ndia0 4ussia and China within the trilateral !ramework has been held in #ctober in %angalore. %oth the governments o! .ndia and China must pursue the e!!orts to negotiate a settlement on the border dispute while strengthening all round ties between the two countries.

-orth East
-anip*r %it*ation' The cold blooded killing by the 5anipur (olice o! a young man in a market place in .mphal on July 28 and the death o! a pregnant woman by police bullets in the same incident in!lamed public opinion. The staged encounter by the 5anipur (olice was e$posed by pictures taken by a photographer. & widespread agitation was launched by the people which led to cur!ew being imposed in the !our valley districts !or :9 days. There have been a number o! arrests under ,*& o! the activists o! the &punba /up organisation which is leading the agitation. Carious student organisations have joined the protest boycotting classes !or the last three months. The judicial en"uiry instituted by the state government has not satis!ied the people. The main demand o! the agitation is the resignation o! the Chie! 5inister. The state government should end the repression and take !irm against all those guilty o! the killing o! the two persons. Assam' .n &ssam there have been ethnic clashes in the ,orth Cachar hills due to the con!lict between the ?1?AJB and the ,*C,A.5B. *uch !ratricidal clashes have occured in the past !ew months between the ?imasa and the Iema ,aga communities leading to the loss o! many lives and property. & 18

welcome development has been the surrender o! the ?1?AJB activists who are also known as the %lack -idow. The bulk o! the ?1?AJB activists have surrendered with their arms. The ,?6A%B the e$tremist %odo group is continuing with its violent activities and recently it was responsible !or the killing o! 7: persons belonging to a di!!erent ethnic group. There are a number o! e$tremist groups which have surrendered and there are more than 8000 militants in designated camps. .t is essential !or the Central >overnment to see that talks are held with all these groups so that there can be a settlement within the !ramework o! the Constitution and the unity o! &ssam.

.amm* / 0ashmir
The level o! e$tremist violence has come down sharply in the state a!ter the last assembly election. 1owever0 the alienation o! the people is being e$pressed through mass protests whenever there are instances o! *tate repression. %eginning with the *hopian incident0 there have been a series o! mass agitations. The separatist !orces have been active in mobilising the people !or these protests. The Central government has announced that it is ready to have talks with all shades o! political opinion. The 1urriyat led by 5irwaiz )mar 6aroo" has welcomed the move while *yed >eelani has dismissed the o!!er. The )(& government should come !orward with speci!ic proposals !or provision o! ma$imum autonomy !or Jammu N Eashmir alongwith regional autonomy !or the three regions.

Hindut(a !errorist Grou#s

The terrorist activities o! certain 1indu e$tremist groups which sur!aced a!ter the 5alegaon blasts has once again been con!irmed by the accidental e$plosions which killed two persons belonging to the *anathana *anstha in >oa recently. /inks to blasts in 5aharashtra in Thane and ,anded have been traced to this organisation. The concerned state governments should take !irm action against this e$tremist organisation.

)orru#tion
The C%. is in"uiring into the telecom scam in allotment o! 2> licences. 1owever the 5inister0 & 4aja0 responsible !or the decision to bene!it some private !irm is continuing in o!!ice. .n order to ensure a !air probe0 he should be asked to step down. The >overnment has !inally buried the %o!ors case by withdrawing the charges against #ttavio Huatrocchi. This is the !inal act in a long process o! cover up by successive Congress+led governments. The charges o! illegally ac"uiring land and assets against Justice ? ( ?inakaran who was empanelled !or promotion to the *upreme Court 19

highlights the inade"uacy o! the present system o! appointing and elevating judges in the higher judiciary. The collegial system involving only members o! the judiciary cannot provide credibility and objectivity to the appointment process. The setting up o! a ,ational Judicial Commission empowered to act in the appointment o! judges and then removal is the only way.

1aoist Acti(ities
The 5aoist activities have been stepped up in Jharkhand0 Chattisgarh0 %ihar and #rissa along with their activities in the /algarh area. %andhs were organised by the 5aoists in Jharkhand and %ihar to protest against the arrest o! Chhatradhar 5ahato and other leaders. They have brutally killed a sub+ inspector kidnapped by them in Jharkhand. .n 5aharashtra0 in >hadchiroli district 7@ policemen were killed in a 5aoist ambush. The Central >overnment has planned operations by the paramilitary !orces along with state police in the a!!ected states in a coordinated !ashion !rom ,ovember. The areas where the 5aoists are entrenched are some o! the most backward regions where the tribal people are living amidst the worst socio+economic conditions. )nless the *tate takes measures to protect the land and livelihood o! the tribal people and ensure all round development o! these areas0 the use o! security !orces alone will not be able to tackle the problem. *ome sections o! the media and anti+Communist intellectuals seek to project the 5aoists as revolutionary in order to denigrate the organised /e!t. #ur (arty has to make more sustained e!!orts to work in the tribal areas and organise the tribal people. &t the same time0 the (arty has to conduct a campaign to e$pose the disruptive politics and ideology o! the 5aoists.

West /engal
.n -est %engal0 a!ter the /ok *abha elections0 the Trinamul Congress and the 5aoists have continued their attacks on the (arty. & serious situation developed in the /algarh area o! -est 5idnapur where scores o! comrades were killed by the 5aoist gangs. These killings continued even a!ter the police+C4(6 deployment. The 5aoists have also targetted and killed comrades in (urulia and %ankura districts. 5amata %anerjee and the Trinamul Congress leadership are openly demanding an end to the police operations in the area. They have also protested against the arrest o! Chhatradhar 5ahato0 the leader o! the 5aoist !ront. The Trinamul Congress3s links with the 5aoists have become !urther clear in this period. The other area where hundreds o! supporters have had to leave their homes is Ehejuri adjoining ,andigram in ;ast 5idnapur. &ltogether !rom the beginning o! the election campaign in 5arch till 79th #ctober0 720 comrades have been killed. .n the last CC meeting we had given a call to organise solidarity campaigns with the (arty and the /e!t 6ront and against the attack in -est %engal. This campaign has to be continued. &long with this0 a campaign against the 5aoists0 e$posing their disruptive politics and ideology should be conducted. The -est %engal *tate Committee o! the (arty met and discussed the steps to improve the work o! the government and the (arty organisation in the !irst 20

week o! &ugust. #n &ugust 87 on the 90th anniversary o! the !ood movement0 a massive rally was held in Eolkata to rebu!! the Trinamul Congress o!!ensive.

United Wor*ers 1o(ement

& ,ational Convention o! Trade )nions was held in *eptember. &ll the Central trade unions including the .,T)C and %5* participated along with the Central )nions represented in the *ponsoring Committee o! Trade )nions. This was a signi!icant step in establishing trade union unity. The Convention adopted a declaration in which steps to curb price rise and end violation o! labour laws were demanded. The declaration also came out against disinvestment o! shares in central public sector units and protection !or unorganised sector labour. The convention decided on state level joint conventions and observance o! all .ndia protest day on #ctober 2D0 2009. The (arty should support the united working class action and actively work !or its success.

Political Situation
B.P Crisis &!ter the election de!eat0 the %J( has steadily plunged into a crisis. The di!!erences !irst came out in open as to who should be the leaders o! the opposition in the /ok *abha and the 4ajya *abha. This was !ollowed by the e$pulsion o! Jaswant *ingh at the time o! the chintan baithak on his book on Jinnah and partition. This led to !urther recrimination and open criticism by some leaders. )nderlying these di!!erences and "uarrels about leadership is the contradiction which is unresolved in the %J(. &!ter the 200: /ok *abha de!eat e!!orts were made by the %J( to broaden its appeal and get more allies on board. %ut this comes up against its 1indutva ideology and the 4** position. &dvani had to resign !rom the presidentship a!ter the Jinnah episode in (akistan. ,ow again a!ter the 2009 elections0 the di!!erences on the ideological+political course to be adopted have sharpened. The crisis in the %J( will be overcome only with the 4** intervention. The !iction that the 4** is a cultural organisation and does not direct the a!!airs o! the %J( is being !ully e$posed. The 4** chie! %hagwat during his visit to ?elhi met all the leaders o! the %J( and his decision will be !inal. .t is e$pected that &dvani will step down !rom the position o! opposition leader be!ore the ne$t session o! parliament. -hen the term o! 4ajnath *ingh is over by January 2070 a new (resident will be elected chosen by the 4**. The disarray in the %J( has demoralised and disillusioned many o! its supporters. There may be a setback but it will be wrong to underestimate the threat o! communalism. The danger is that with the 4** grip tightening0 the %J( will !all back on its hardcore 1indutva and communal agenda. -herever 21

the %J( is strong as in >ujarat0 5adhya (radesh0 Earnataka and so on the 4** writ runs0 as the success o! the %J( is based on communal politics and polarisation. -e have to continue to e$pose the reactionary and disruptive character o! the politics o! the 4**+%J( combine and its 1indutva ideology. The disarray in the %J( and their !ailure to act as an e!!ective opposition provides us an opportunity to go among the people and rally them on major issues a!!ecting their lives. .! this work is done along with the political+ideological campaign0 it will provide us scope to advance in new areas. &t the same time strengthening our ties with the non+Congress secular parties will help !urther isolate the %J(. Role o# other Political Parties The *amajwadi (arty has been e$pressing its discontent and anger against the Congress a!ter the elections. The Congress party does not re"uire the support o! the *( as it has been able to muster a majority without them. The *( has been demanding a coordination committee on the lines o! the earlier )(&+/e!t coordination committee. The *( has been criticising the )(& government3s policies. .t has attacked the government on price rise0 the joint statement with (akistan and on the supply o! gas and pricing issues involving the two &mbani brothers. The *amajwadi (arty held its national convention in &gra in &ugust. .n this convention it came out against the 5ayawati government in )( and called !or a jail bharo movement in January. &t the same time it sharply criticised the )(& government on issues like price rise etc. %ut it re!rained !rom withdrawing support to the )(& government even though such demands were made. The *( leadership is trying to bargain with the Congress by saying that they should not take a so!t approach to the %*(. They want the Congress to re!use the %*(3s support to the )(& government. The %*( also e$tended support to the government. .t did so immediately a!ter the *( declared support. 1owever0 in )ttar (radesh its con!lict with the Congress got sharpened. The !act that the Congress could get one more seat than the %*( has riled 5ayawati. ;very e!!ort that the Congress makes to e$tend its base is being opposed by her vigorously. The )( Congress (resident 4ita %ahuguna3s objectionable remarks in a speech against 5ayawati and the retaliatory arson attack on her house and her arrest have embittered relations.

/y-Elections
.n )ttar (radesh there were by+elections to !our seats in July. The %*( won three and &jit *ingh3s 4/? won one. The %*( gained one seat !rom the %J( and two !rom the *(. This shows that the %*( still commands substantial support. ;lections to 70 more seats will take place on ,ovember @. The Janata ?al A*B also e$tended support to the )(& government. They did so keeping in view their situation in Earnataka where the %J( government is in 22

power. They were interested in a limited cooperation with the Congress but were upset with the !act that the Congress is not willing. .n the !ive assembly by elections in Earnataka the J?A*B won two seats and the %J( two seats. The Congress could win only one seat though !our o! them were its sitting seats. .n Tamilnadu0 the &.&?5E called !or a boycott o! the by+elections to !ive assembly seats. They did so without consulting the /e!t parties. The (5E and the 5?5E0 its election allies joined the boycott call. The C(.A5B and the C(. decided that it was wrong to give a boycott call even though there were election malpractices on a largescale by the ?5E during the /ok *abha elections. The two parties decided to !ight two seats each. The ?5?E o! Cijayakant !ought on !ive seats. &s e$pected the ?5E+Congress won all the !ive seats. The ?5?E came second in all the seats. *ubse"uently0 the (5E has parted ways with the &.&?5E. .n &ndhra (radesh0 we have been taking a joint stand with the T?( on some issues inside the assembly. -e have also sought to have joint actions with all the opposition parties e$cept the %J( on issues like price rise and drought. Chiranjeevi3s party the (4( has su!!ered desertions with some o! its leaders and cadres "uitting the party. #ne o! the key leaders o! the T?( who had de!ected and joined the (4( in Telengana0 ?evendra >oud and his group have returned to the T?(. .n %ihar0 by+elections to 7D assembly elections were held in *eptember. The J?A)B su!!ered a setback as it could win only two seats and along with its ally the %J(0 a total o! !ive seats. The 4J?+/J( alliance won nine seats0 the Congress two and the %*( one. The /e!t parties0 the C(.0 C(.A5B and the C(.A5/B who !ought the /ok *abha elections together had a partial seat adjustment !or these by elections. #ur (arty !ought 9 seats and the C(. 9. The C(.A5/B contested D seats in which they clashed with us in 8. The /e!t parties could not win any seat.

Assembly Elections
&ssembly elections in 5aharashtra0 1aryana and &runachal (radesh were held on #ctober 78. .n 5aharashtra the Congress+,C( alliance and the %J(+ *hiv *ena combine were the major contenders. & new electoral !ormation0 4/?60 emerged with the merger o! the three !actions o! the 4epublican (arty o! .ndia0 their understanding with the /e!t parties and other non+Congress secular parties like the (-(0 *( and the J?A*B. #ur (arty contested 20 seats. The Congress+,C( alliance has won the election by getting 7:: seats. The Congress alliance bene!itted !rom the split in the *hiv *ena vote with the 5,* winning 78 seats and polling 9.@ per cent o! the vote. The *hiv *ena seats went down to :: !rom 22. The 4/?6 won 77 seats o! which the C(.A5B got one. The (arty won the ?ahanu seat but it !ailed to retain the other tribal seat0 Ealvan. .n 1aryana0 the Congress !ailed to get a majority. >iven its sweep o! all the ten /ok *abha seats0 it was e$pected to get a clear majority. The .,/? 23

recovered ground and won 82 seats. The Congress is able to retain the government with the help o! independents. The C(.A5B and the C(. !ought the elections jointly with the (arty72 seats and the C(. D seats. The /e!t could not win any seat. .n &runachal (radesh0 the Congress had an easy victory.

Summing U#
The Congress is in an advantageous position given the disarray in the %J( in the post election situation. The victory in the three state assembly elections held in #ctober con!irm this. The )(& government had started on a con!ident note. 1owever0 the last !ive months0 have not been all smooth sailing . The acute price rise o! !ood and essential commodities0 the drought conditions which have aggravated the agrarian crisis and the controversy over the joint statement with (akistan have all been detrimental to the government. .nside parliament on the petrol and diesel price hike0 the joint statement with (akistan0 the ;nd )se 5onitoring &greement with the )* and the >D restriction on ;,4 technology trans!er !ound the government isolated. ;ven some o! its allies and those supporting it !rom outside came out against the government3s stand. .n the coming days0 it should be possible to mount wider opposition to the policies o! the government and its coming under pressure on a number o! major issues to the )nited *tates.

"ur A##roach 2 !actics

7. The review o! the /ok *abha election has highlighted the importance o! e$panding the independent activities o! the (arty. .n the present situation0 without the independent strength o! the (arty being increased0 we cannot undertake the political tasks set out in the 79th Congress. -e have to intervene on all major political issues at the Central and state levels0 we must take up the mass issues !or campaigns and struggles. &s noted in the election review we must concentrate on building sustained struggles on local issues. -e must also build up state level movement on major issues. 2. The /e!t parties have to take joint initiatives and we must carry !orward the )nited work o! the /e!t parties. #n price rise0 drought and !ood security0 we have already chalked out joint actions. 8. -e must continue to oppose the neo+liberal policies o! the government. This e$tends to areas outside the economy like health0 education and basic services. #ur orientation should be to take up the issues o! the working class including the unorganised sector0 poor peasants0 agricultural workers and the mass o! the rural and urban poor. *pecial attention has to be paid to the demands and problems o! the dalits0 adivasis0 minorities and women. :. &lready the stance o! the )(& government on deepening its strategic 24

alliance with the )*& is evident. -e have to pick up all the issues regarding the alliance with the )nited *tates and build up the anti+imperialist movement. The (akistan+&!ghanistan situation must also be !ollowed care!ully as it will a!!ect our country. 9. Centre+*tate relationsO & number o! issues concerning Centre+*tate relations have arisen. ;ven in education some o! the pronouncements o! the ;ducation 5inister0 Eapil *ibal0 violate the rights o! the states. The 4ight to ;ducation &ct can be implemented only i! Centre gives necessary !unds and not ask the states to do it. *imilarly0 whether it be drought or calamities the Centre has to provide more relie! and assistance. -e have to see how we can mobilise the various states to take common positions.

Attitude !o -on-)ongress Secular Parties

#ur emphasis should be on independent activities !ollowed by united /e!t initiatives. -e should maintain relations with the non+Congress secular parties. This will take shape0 mainly at present0 o! cooperation within parliament and state legislatures. .n parliament we can coordinate with non+ Congress secular parties on issues to issues. *uch parties are the T?(0 4J?0 *(0 %*( and the &.&?5E. ;ven the J?A)B which belongs to the ,?& can be mobilised on some issues. #utside parliament we can cooperate with the concerned non+Congress secular parties as and when re"uired. -e should not see this in terms o! continuance o! the electoral alliance with these parties. *uch an understanding was !ormed only !or the elections. -e should seek the cooperation o! the non+Congress secular parties on issues and keeping the needs o! joint movements in mind. .t may not be possible to draw some o! these parties into joint actions outside parliament. %ut we must maintain relations with them especially in the light o! the disarray in the %J(. &s and when the political situation develops and mass discontent occurs0 the scope !or joint actions will increase.

+mmediate +ssues 2 !as*s

7. A&ainst Price Rise, Dro*&ht Relie# / PD%12ood %ec*rity' The /e!t parties have called !or state level joint conventions and the holding o! state level rallies in ,ovember. This should be implemented. 2. Campaign against &*;&, !ree trade agreement no surrender in the ?oha round o! -T#0 Climate Change talks. 8. &gainst disinvestment o! shares in pro!itable (*)s. *trict implementation o! labour laws. *upport the call o! the ,ational Convention o! workers.

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:. &gainst surrender to )* pressures ++ ;nd )se 5onitoring agreement0 the proposed nuclear liability law. 9. #ppose the !oreign education providers bill which will allow !oreign universities and educational institutions to be set up in .ndia. 2. Campaign against the direct ta$es code which is giving ta$ cuts !or the corporates and the rich. @. Cigilance against the moves o! the %J(+4** combine to raise communal issues and e$posure o! the disruptive 1indutva agenda. D. Campaign against the 5aoists to e$pose their disruptive ideology and politics. 9. *tep up the campaign in solidarity with the C(.A5B and the /e!t 6ront in -est %engal. 5obilise the people against the violence and attacks by the Trinamul combine. 70. Continue the struggle !or proper implementation o! the ,4;>& and !orest tribal rights act. 77. Campaign !or implementation o! 88 per cent reservation !or women in parliament and legislatures.

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