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243
1. It is somctimes necessary to consider the geographical dislribution of some quality or phcnomcnon in lhe counties or states ofa country, and onc of the questions we may thcn ask is whether the factors causing the phcnomenon may be regarded as statistically independem in different counties, or, on thc othcr hand, whcthcr the presence ofsome qualitv in a county makes its presence in ncighbouring counties more or less likely. D. Barron Cruickshank (1, 2) has
considered a similar type of problcm in relation to the incidence of luberculosis in thc United
(4) may be cnsul ted.
Kmgdom. For other work on this subject thc references in (3) and a paper bv Mahalanobis
We may either regard the number of black points as fixed f- P) and the latter distributed a random on thc resulting lattice of points,* or wc may supposc the individual counties to bc B and W mdependently with probabilities p and q - 1 p. The former case, which we refer to as the "hxed P" case, has thc advantage that wc do not have to estimate p, whercas in the latter case,, which we cal! the "fixed p" case, p usually has to be estimated from the data itselfa process
itsel able to error.
represem the counties by points, and denote the fact that two counties touch bv joining the corresponding points by a linc. Supposc there are N counties Cx . . . Cy and njias J, . . . Jn,
consider thc distribution of the number of contiguous counties which are both "black." We
2. We only consider the case wherc for cach county or statc a given event has or has not oceurred. If it has, we denote the state of the county by B (for "black"), and if not by W(for
lattice of m x n points, we found the first and second momcnts and proved that the distribution of the number of BW joins tended to normality as m and n inercased. That the distribution of
for the fixed p case, and in the case where the points are arranged in the form ofa rectangular
the number of BB joins on a rectangular lattice in the fixed/? case also tends to normality can be
distributions of BB and BW joins in both fixcd p and fixed P cases. In particular wc apply the results to a rectangular lattice, and give anothcr and simpler proof of the tendency to normality
in the fixed p case.
Calculation of First and Second Moments
lgebra involved, we shall only carry out lhe calculation of the third and fourth moments for the distribution of the number of BB joins, but we shall give thc first and second moments of the
BB or BW joins in thc fixed p case, for any type of lattice whatever. Bccausc of the lengthy
the present paper we show how these may be obtained for the distributions of the mimbcrs of
shown in a similar mauner. Howevcr, we did not obtain the third and fourth momcnts. n
expecUion of a single Q( (that is, the probability that Ji is a BB join) multiplied bv thc number
of joins /,-. Thercfore u.\ (Q) ~~ E{Q) - np*.
'l'hcn Q - E Qi where the sum is taken over ali joins, is the number of BB joins, and we mus fmd the moments of the distribution of Q. The expcciation of Q is S()()( and equals thc
* Thc object which we here call a "lattice of points" is known as a "linear graph" in topology, and it
shoultJ ne notou that the theory developcd in this paper does not require the graph to be planar.
244
Now consider
[No. 2,
To find this we must multiply out (SQ,-)' and calculate the expectation of each tcrm. Three
CEZD
OOO
oo OO
l'x.. i.- Conligurations coniributory to tt\. Thc double bond indicates a squareo tcrm.
clearly n terms of this type and the total contribution is np'-.
types of tcrm re-sult (Fig. 1). Thc first is of lhe form QS and its expectation is p* There are
>I-cl each point, representing a county C have joins with M, other points Thc second lypc
x
of tcrm wi be of the form Qty where J{ and J} have one point in common. Thc expectation
is p5, and the number of such terms is Y. M,{Mt - I).
t
Suppose that for each join y,- the sum of the number of points, to which the points at the end of ^ are joined, is kt. Then the number of pairs of ,/'s with no county in common is
n
The third type of tcrm will be of the form QiQ}, where J, and ./, have no points in common
i E (n - k} - I) - in(n - I) - i v ki.
i -< i j _ i
.v y
jV
and so
^ A'
i -
inequahty. It has becn proved (3) that the distribution tends to normality for a large enough fs, calculated from the third and fourth momcnts (which we show how to find for any lattice
rectangular lattice, and or an arbitrary lattice the assumption is probably jusliliable if 3, and
curve with some assurance that the resulting test of significance is not lkcly to bc far out.
If wc know p we can therefore find n',((?) and ^(Q), and so make a test ofsignificance either bv assuming normality in cases whcrc this scems plausible or in othcr cases by using TchebycheTs
If
we do calculate the moments and normality is not strongly indicated we could fit a Pearson tvpe
"
in the next section) are near the values 0 and 3 which they take for a normal distribution
they can usually be found by actual counting. For n can be found bv simplv finding the number of joins of points. Then for each point il is casy to calculate M,(Mt 1) and add these together.
For an irregular lattice where * i Mt{M,-\) and j,-. i k} cannot be calculated thcorcticallv -'
Similarly ZJc} can casily be found. We shall show in the next section that the numrica!
calculation of the third and fourth moments is, in practice, not much more difficult than that of thc second, and so wc can, in general, find out how lar our assumption ofnormalitv is justified 5. Ifwe wanted to discuss the distribution of the number, R, oi BW joins, wc simply replace the expectations p\ p and p* of the individual types of terms in the above argument bv thc
F'i W - 2npq
corresponding ones m this case which are 2pq, pq, and 4p*q', thus obtainng
s n
1948]
and so
245
4/>V
wA ThHherefore,consider abrVe meth2 Wt,h SUfferSof from theBW disadvantage that it assumes to be known VVe y thePfeed distribution BB or joins in the fixed / case. p We then wrhe
?o , 5^ f ^ the 1' and Gi*of "asingle ' if hjoin. lS a** Jin> herwise. Then Q" - C and 2 )is ntimes expectation Now the: numbsr ofways of arranging Pblack points on Xpositions is (), whilst the number of ways of doing this so that J( is aiways RB is ( ~.;). It follows that
and
E (Qi)
P(P
\)i.\'<N - D.
n'i<G*) ^ nP{P - D/MA/- 1). ansc wnen we eonsider the second moment we get
S^whcn0 wAS1w ProCedure/or evaluati^ the Ptation.s of thc types of terms which
n',?*> ~ nPiP ... ,)/WV _ l) + P(p.- J) C - 2) *
, W - !)(/>- ZXjP- 3)
Similarly we may consider the distxibulion of fljf joins. Writc R* for thc number of such
Writc Rs* - 1 if J is RW -,nH
'
d"
' "7v(.Ar"-' I) (;V - Z)W~ 3) ('i(" ~ J)*~/ f ,A_i }arbitrary lattice. seem more difficult to calculate.
'T/te Third and Fourth Moments
alarge rectangular lattice, and its third and fourth moments, either for a rectangular o an
B
Bulakhough the fixed 7> distribution has the advantage of not assuming a knowlcdgc ol> wc know less about it than the other case, for our mcthods will not prove it tends to norma, uv fo
7. VVe now confine ourselves to considering the distribution of BB joins in the fixed p case and weprocecd to calculate its third and fourth moments. The third and fourth moments of
mcthods. Tnstead of calculatmg the third and fourth moments about thc origin we find them about the mean and this simplifies the resuits as then those terms whosc frequencies on the
lattice are most difficult to calculate, vanish. M
the distnbut.on of the number of BW joins in the fixed p case can be found by very s"mila
Consider first the third moment \is(Q) --- F[CLQi E(^Qi))"] Wrkc Si - Qi - E{Qi) ^Qi-p* P \ Then MG) - E{(VSiY
246
[No. 2,
Consider thc various types of terms which occur in thc cxpansion of this. Therc are cighi in ali
(1) Terms corresponding to threc joins vvithout common points. Such terms clcarlv
but no point in common with thc third. The expectation is again zero The remaining terms have non-zero expectation (Fig. 2).
__(.2) Terms corresponding to two joins without common points. such that one of these joins oocurs twicc bccause the corresponding S; is squared. This has zero expectation (3) Terms_ corresponding to thrcc joins, two of which have one point in common
CBD
CT-QO
is therefore to fmd E(Sf), and two methods of doing this will be used for ihis and subsequent
terms, thus providing a check on the lgebra. In the first wc writc E(,S?) - kXQS - 3/^<2= I 3p'Qi
pl - 3p' -|- 3/;c - p
(4) Terms corresponding to a single join occurring threc times. To find the expectation
p)
This is thc simplest method to use on subsequent tcnns, but as a check we may writc down each possibc combination of B's and W's, and after multiplying the rcsulting value of thc tcrm by thc probability of that particular combination of /J's and Ws, sum the resulting
produets. This method is much longcr, but provides a uscful check on'thc lgebra.
one of thc joins oceurs twice. The expectation is found to be pHl ~ p) (1 - 2pr). (6) Terms corresponding to thrce joins occurring in a chain so that one join has a
pomt in common with each of the other two who have no points in common with each other. The expectation is /;'(! - p)\
(5) Terms corresponding to two joins iaving a singlc point in common and such that
m the expansion; we must enumerate the number of possible ways in which each configuration can be placed on the lattice. VVe calculate these numbers explicitly for a rectangular lattice, but tor an arbitrary irregular lattice such as resuits from a gcographical map, it is necessary to count thc number ofways ofarranging such groups ofjoins on thc lattice. This does not require cxcessivc labour for thc average map, provided it be carricd out systcmatically. This is best illustrated by an example. Supposc wc wantcd to find the number of terms of tyi>e (6) above. Consider each join of the lattice in turn, and associate with each join the number of distinet ways oi putting a chain of three joins on the lattice such that the given join is the middle join of the chain. Adding ali these numbers will give thc number of ways in which a term of type (6) can occur. Having found the frequencies of occurrcnce of terms (4) to (8), denote these frequencies by iit, . . 8 and rhen multiply theni by the corresponding expectation and by the muli-nomia!
one point common to each pair of joins. This type of tcrm does not occur in a rectangular or cubic lattice. Its expectation is p"(i - Py (I ->- 2p). This completes the enumeration of the types of terms in \l,(Q). To find how often each oceurs
(7) Tcnns corresponding to three joins which have only one point in common and that common to ali three. The expectation is p'(l - p) (1 - 2p). (8) Terms corresponding to three joins which join threc points, there being, therefore,
I948^
241
joins can be chosen as the one corresponding to the squared St m the term. Finally we have ua(Q) .= nlP\\ - p*)(] - 2pt) _ 3/;i p3(1 _ p) (1 . lpl (. 6)l^a .., p)! . (] _
(1 ~2p) ^6tisPs(l p)'(l +2/>).
coefficient arising from the expansion of (ZStf. For thc terms (4), ... (8) these are rcspcctively iL; nn ,">, T l" partlcular that in calculating n, we have to takc accoimt that two joins on the lattice with a pomt mcommon contribute two terms to th bccausc cilhcr of the two
bUic^hm^Tr^1011
nt Zmn m n.
These formulae hold for m and greater than, or cqual (o, thrce. It follows that |x?) - (2/hh - m~ n)p*(l - Ps) (I - 2p3) - 6(6, - 6m - 6 I- 4)p\l (1 - 2pa) + 6118/n/f - 25/n - 25 f- 28MI />)* + I2(2w/i - 3m 3/i + 4)
^'(l - p) (1 2p).
P)
its ex .antsTor0nSdCr ^ ^^ ^^^ *m '" (LSiV' Thm are 23 dlS,'nCt types of term in
(9) Terms corresponding to four joins without common points. (10) Terms corresponding to three joins, without common points, one of which oceurs
twicc.
(.11) Terms corresponding to two joins without common points, such that one of thc
points common to the others, and thc other group consists of three joins which share a singlc point m common, that is, the term consists of a single join together with a grouo
oi joins of thc type of tcrm (7) for |i:l(Q).
(12) Terms corresponding to two groups of joins, one of which is a .single join without
(13) Terms corresponding to two groups of joins, one consisting of a singlc join and
(14) Terms corresponding to three groups of joins, two of which are single joins, and
(15) Terms corresponding to two groups of joins, one of which is a single join and the
(16) Terms corresponding to two groups of joins, one of which is a single join and the othcr of threc joins, joining thrce points. Terms ofthis type do not occur on a recumgutar
The terms of types (9) (16) above ali have expectation zero, because of the fact that thev contam at lcast one singlc join separated from the others. Moreover, amongst their number they contain ali terms corresponding to more than two groups of joins. It is verv awkward to calculate the number oi ways such terms occur on the lattice, and this is whv the calculation of uQ) and \l,{Q) is possible, whereas the direct calculation of >x\(Q) and u\(Q) which was thc method used ma previous paper (except that we there considered the distribution of BW joins) would be very difficult. Using lhe present methods, we can not onlv calculate u,(0) and -Un) exphcitly for a given rectangular lattice, but also, in practice, find the third and fourth moments next consider thc types of terms which do contribute something non-z.ero to ^,(Q) (Fig 3)
expectation is p\\ p3) (l - 3/>s + Jp*).
lor an arbitrary lattice such as that resulting from a geographical map of counties or states VVe
(17) Terms corresponding to a single join on thc lattice, occurring four times
The
and such that one of thcrn oceurs thrce times. Thc expectation is p3(\ - p) (l 3p*
(18) Terms corresponding to two joins on thc lattice, having a singlc point mcommon
248
[No. 2,
such that one ofthem oceurs twice. 'fhe expectation is p*{\ - p) (1 _ p _ ,. 3/>'i (20) Terms corresponding to thrce joins arranged in a chain (i.c. joins J, J, and /
(19) Terms corresponding to threc joins with a single point common to ali three and
oftL^H ? O.c. /' ha/C ? ^ twice. Cmmon and J and y another)and of the end joins * or /,)Plnt oceurs The expectation is pHl p) (1 h^ ^at + one .,
cxpSltiln SS^" W 20) V) SUCh tfm H "thC mdd,C Jn Wh'Ch aPPeai"S ^ hC ^oL^ ^,a^gl%?mT^v;.and such that (23) Terms corresponding to two joins without common points and such that each
pr)\
0e=o
cjc jo
cm
<
arx> T
OO <T~0
_
Q O O
ooo
Ci
OOQ
cA
p)-.
(24) Terms corresponding to four joins, each of which has a single point in common with two of the others, but not with the fourth, the set of four being thus related like the sides of a squarc. The expectation is/Al pf(\ +2p--p%). (25) Terms corresponding to two groups of joins, each consisting of two joins havine
(26) Terms corresponding to four joins which have one point common to ali four.
but no other point belonging to more than one join. The expectation isp5(l
p) (1
Ji and y:, J2 and /,, and J3 and Jf have a point in common. The expectation is p& (I -r- pf (28) Terms corresponding to four joins, Jx, Jt, J, and J such that J, and Js have one
The expectation is/?s(l p)'.
pHl - p) (1 - p>).
(27) Terms corresponding to four joins forming a chain, i.c. Jx, Jz, J3 and J, such that
pomt in common and J2, J, and J, have another, but there are no other common points
(29) Terms corresponding to three jias such that Jt oceurs twice and has no points
in common with J2 and J which have one point in common. The expectation is
19481
vertV/ Th.
-/
249
taking mto account thc corresponding multinomal coefficienls, we have >MQ) -' */>'(! />2) (1 -3/> + 3pJ) - 4nls^"(l />) (1 - Va 3/r>) I 12/'/''d p) (1 ~p- lp> + 3//J) Un^pHl P){\ - 2p> + p*\
+ 12n/,(l - ^)> (1 - 2^) + 6/^i p} (i ... p 3p, _. , ^ ,4)
Calling the frequencies with which thc above terms occur on the lattice
, and
+ 12:llp3 (I - py (1 + 2p - /7S
/>)' -r 24,/?>(1 - p)
o^n^mTih^T ^ "^ "^ >'by *M, itcd b^consideri g as an examplc the determmation oi .^^ We have ^ already denoted the number of count.et to which the county C. is joined, and nu is clearly S (-^) taken over ali .vsuch that A, >4. Th
IS
10. It can be seen that, in practice, thc amount of labour required in finding ,
bTuS !o vin?/?"141 ^ CnSdenn* in tu the ^UI"ies of the map. Similar mcthods can
CaSCS- For a angular lattice wc can calculate " . . . tI "
8. 24. 56. 28. is 12w I2w 12/i -r n -^ J2.ro; \8m - I8 + so = 36w 50m - 5Q/t -f nl} = 18/mw 25 25 +
ss = 6w 6w 6 -i- 4.
na - 18w8/)J
ao W - 2/?
/J3B ^: l2m'tP
" - 0. J! - 0.
l8;-
ISwi/4
of tte nmbTr of fll- * ^ t^r ^ ^ ^ lhe th''d a"d fourth momen^ of th^ distribution
much simplcr to arguc manothcr manner, namely, to consider thc asymptotic bchaviour of the
distributions for P hxcd do not sccm to bc easily amenablc to cilhcr of these methods
11. For a rectangular lattice of m>; points and thc fixcd p case, the distribution when reduced to zero mean and unit standard deviaton tends to normality when mand mercai fh swas proved for the .distribution of BW joins in (3) by using methos developed by Berntem and similar methods lead to the same conclusion for BB joins. But in fact ii both c^s it k
highcr momcnts. Ve do this here for the distribution of BB joins. The tendency Io normaty
Consider a rectangular lattice of m:< points and denote the number of BB joins by Q.
rNo. 2
ofhghct ordcr in mandT "S>mp,M"- torm"llMi " "rcforc ufflcient to consider lhe itrms
common points. Ead prolS ^t^7^T8 ^ " thc ,H,toc havB (or havc "<"> each group the corresoondin ininl K 8'"Upi ^ say" mni,mbcr) "<* that within
join. Now forciven/- iHp, 1
h "-
of ali terms' vif^ (" grouol ^iH be I^' ^ ^"P "finke and S the ^l expectation
*u- -iCQ) < /l(w/i)
asinglc join with thc corresp nd LTr scd oniv ? T rT thCfC ,S agrUp "^Ponding to will clcarly bc zero lSlSS" ,h , S l.PVwer' U,C "P^tation of that tcrm
^ -(q) ~- U"') ~ h
as ? and n
Any product consi tin" ofTes than AJ(^ns T* "k *gR>UPS wi" have *Ptation zero. not greater than k 1 Con ide, nL^ti h ^f UtC aPoi>'no""al "> "' and of ordcr
correspond, cilhcr to a single join taken
-m-n) and (6nL - J, L6 ^ resctKe T,^ ,f?q.uencics .n thc ,attice are (2mn ordcr iess than M, will bc asymiotic^SSVo P^^on. omitng terms of f^d -P*)<2mn m n) |-2^(1 p) (6, 6/ ^ +4)}' - {^Q^
muitiplicd by arnultinomialcocfficient which represents the number ofwnvs.f.h , . , joins to lorm separate groups in thc expansion of iZQ^ ^s cocmcieS is ^ "^ '
(2*)! 2*'^!
would be equal to ^ if > we- 'c d"g/a dSeS c^eSr^^^ l "T' ^ nd ,,, . , whil 'UCIie eFects' The *<> types oi group
19481
and so
25l
__
V
{2k)\
2*A-!
can be apphed to three dimensional lattices in exactly the *, wy. Knowing that t"e d^ , but.on is approximately normal for alarge rectangular lattice we may have aZddcaI of cnfi
evidence, we may, if necessarv, calculate the third and fourth momcnts
SUMMAKY.
t '"J!
"rte"d t0,lfmity' and the distribution tends to normalitv. This method of -ireumrn,
dence that the same will be true of any fairly large lattice of irrcgula paernLnd is2
rcsts of stgnificance for the random distribution of some quatativc determination on the
distribution >s shown to tend to normality as thc size of thc lattice increases
References.
of he number ofcontiguous counties, both possessing the quality, are givcn in both cas and S method off.nd.ng; the third and fourth moments in the former case. E^plicit formda^re^en for thc h.rd and fourth moments when the lattice is rectangular, and in tEi ca Z anXS eS
sldndlird'd
(194/), fnt. Journ. Cncer, 1, 109 -P8
mdifferent count.es is independem, or that the total number of counlies pos c"smg the cmalitv considered ,s fixcd but their arrangement is random. First and second moZ^Kl
counties or statesot amap are discussed. These depend on assuming eithcMhTt wiat frinne s
(3) Moran, P. A. P. (1947), Proc. Cam. PhiL Soe., 43 321-128 (4) Mahalanobis, P. C, Phii Traiu. Rov. Soe. (b) 23! *T>9~ '
[D