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(Nota: para ayudarlos en la justificacin, el solucionario es para el caso en que todas las respuestas hubiesen sido verdaderas. El solucionario se basa literalmente en extractos de los textos ledos).
Lucas, R. Jr. (1988) Money Demand in the United States: A Quantitative Review, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 29 (Autumn 1988), 137-168.
1. The shared objective of this research was to demonstrate that the demand for money is a "highly stable function" of a limited number of variables, to discover the most useful operational measures of money and these other variables, and to work "toward isolating the numerical 'constants' of monetary behavior". El objetivo de esta investigacin fue demostrar que la demanda de dinero es una funcin altamente estable de un nmero limitado de variables, descubrir las mediciones ms operacionales del dinero y de sus variables determinantes, e identificar los parmetros estables del comportamiento monetario. Verdadero Meltzer estima parmetros tiles para el diseo de la poltica monetaria, con estabilidad de precios sin afectar el bienestar 2. The income elasticity, in a setting in which long run real output growth is both fairly predictable and insensitive to changes in monetary policy, provides the answer to the question: What rate of growth of money is consistent with long run price stability? La elasticidad ingreso de la demanda de dinero, en un contexto en el cual la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo del producto real es adecuadamente predecible y no sensible a cambios en la poltica monetaria, permite responder a la pregunta: Cul es la tasa de crecimiento del dinero que sea consistente con la estabilidad de precios? Verdadero Permite que los encargados de poltica monetaria tengan un adecuado perfil de su creacin monetaria, coherente con el equilibrio de largo plazo. 3. The interest elasticity is the key parameter needed to answer the question: What are the welfare costs to society of deviations from long run price stability? La elasticidad tasa de inters es el parmetro clave necesario para responder a: Cul es el costo en trminos del bienestar de la sociedad de desviaciones de los precios con relacin a la estabilidad de precios de largo plazo? Verdadero La elasticidad tasa de inters, por ser base para medir la sustitucin intertemporal de consumo, permite caracterizar las implicancias en el bienestar de cambios en esta tasa. 4. Current income induces too much cyclical responsiveness in predicted money demand, relative to wealth, and that wealth or some other smoothed" income measure is preferred as the regressor. El ingreso corriente induce mucha prociclicidad en la demanda de dinero estimada, en comparacin con la riqueza, y que la riqueza u otra medida de ingreso ms suave es preferible como regresor. Verdadero EL ingreso corriente est altamente correlacionado al ciclo econmico lo que puede resultar en una elasticidad ingreso menos estable. 5. If there were important technical changes, not occurring interest rate movements, permitting agents to economize on balances, the assumption that the errors are trendfree understates the income elasticity. Si hubiesen importantes cambios tecnolgicos, sin la ocurrencia de cambios en la tasa de inters, que permitan a los agentes econmicos a ahorrar costos transaccionales, el supuesto de que los errores son libres de tendencia subestima la elasticidad ingreso de la demanda de dinero. Verdadero Con innovaciones financieras las personas necesitaran menos circulante para efectuar sus transacciones, pero ello no implica que la sensibilidad de la demanda de dinero al ingreso cambie. 6. Some of the goods can only be purchased with money acquired during the course of securities trading: This transactions requirement is the sole reason for including cash in a portfolio, in preference to interest bearing claims to future cash. Algunos bienes pueden ser solo tranzados con dinero en efectivo que se obtuvo durante el proceso de intercambio de activos: Este requerimiento transaccional es la nica razn por la que se incluye preferiblemente el dinero en efectivo en el portafolio con relacin a algn activo que pague inters. Verdadero Es la restriccin de tener por anticipado dinero en efectivo para poder efectuar transacciones de aquellos bienes que deben pagarse con dicho efectivo. 7. Yet it does not seem to us that one would have any confidence that the demand function based on portfolio considerations only would remain stable over time. Uno no debe confiar en que una demanda basada slo en consideraciones de portafolio sea estable en el tiempo. Verdadero Slo, el portafolio incorporara en la funcin de demanda de dinero al estado actual como uno de sus determinantes lo que lo hace inestable. 8. The value (in utile) of a dollar is its liquidity value during goods trading plus the marginal value of nominal wealth one period hence. El valor (en trminos de unidades de bienestar) de un dlar es su liquidez durante las transacciones de bienes ms el valor marginal de la riqueza nominal del siguiente periodo Verdadero El dinero lquido es necesario para transar bines que exigen slo efectivo, asimismo, el dinero mismo forma parte de la riqueza para el futuro inmediato. 9. Meltzer's estimated income and wealth elasticity are around unity, suggesting that the current period utility function takes the form of a constant relative risk aversion function of a homogeneous of degree one function of consumption. La elasticidad ingreso y riqueza estimadas por Meltzer se aproximan a la unidad y sugiere que la funcin de utilidad actual toma la forma de una funcin de consumo homognea de grado uno con una aversin relativa al riesgo constante. Verdadero El mayor ingreso implica mayor consumo y por consiguiente mayor dinero para efectuar las transacciones. 10. When the central bank issues money for bonds, interest rates must move so that the subset of private agents on the other side of this exchange is willing to acquire a disproportionate share of the economy's new money supply, This alteration introduces a Keynesian "liquidity preference" element into money demand. Cuando el banco central emite dinero a cambio de bonos, la tasa de inters debe cambiar para que algunos agentes privados pueda adquirir una mayor proporcin de la nueva oferta monetaria de la economa. Verdadero Una mayor oferta monetaria implica mayor liquidez y, por ello, mayor demanda por bonos lo que eleva sus precios y, por ende, afecta la tasa de inters
Tobias Adrian and Hyun Song Shin (2013) "Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk"
11. The appropriate balance sheet concept is the total assets of the bank, rather than its enterprise value. The corresponding equity concept is book equity, and the appropriate concept of leverage is the ratio of total assets to book equity. En la hoja de balance, el concepto apropiado es el total de activos de los bancos, en lugar de su valor empresarial. El concepto correspondiente del capital es el del capital contable, y el concepto apropiado de apalancamiento es el ratio del total de activos con relacin al capital contable. Verdadero This is because we are interested in the leverage inherent in the portfolio held by the bank. Ideally, the book value of equity should be marked-to-market, so that market values are used. Esto es as pues nos interesa el apalancamiento inherente al portafolio de los bancos. Idealmente, el valor contable del capital debe ser marked-to-market, de tal manera que se usen valores de mercado. 12. There are more positive net present value (NPV) projects that need funding when the economy is strong than when the economy is weak. Therefore, we should expect total credit to increase during the up-swing and decline in the down-swing. Cuando la economa est en su fase expansiva (en contraposicin a cuando est en su fase contractiva), hay ms proyectos con valor presente neto positivo que necesitan fondeo, financiamiento. Por ello, debemos esperar que el crdito total debe aumentar durante las expansiones econmicas y reducirse durante las contracciones econmicas. Verdadero The debate about procyclicality of the financial system is therefore more subtle. The question is whether the fluctuations in lending are larger than would be justified by changes in the incidence of positive NPV projects. El debate acerca de la prociclicidad del sistema financiero es por ello subalterno. Lo importante es si las fluctuaciones en los crditos son mayores que lo que se pueda justificar mediante cambios en la incidencia de proyectos con valores actuales netos positivos. 13. Leverage is high during booms and low during busts. El apalancamiento de bancos es alto durante fases expansivas y es bajo durante las fases contractivas. Verdadero Procyclicality of leverage is the mirror image of increased collateral requirements (increased haircuts) during downturns. Geanakoplos (2009) and Gorton & Metrick (2012) examined how the risk bearing capacity of the financial system can be severely diminished when leverage falls through an increase in collateral requirements.
14. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a quantile measure on the loss distribution defined as the smallest threshold loss L such that the probability that the realized loss turns out to be larger than L is below some fixed probability . El Value-at-Risk es una medicin cuantitativa sobre la distribucin de la funcin de prdida, definida como el umbral ms pequeo de prdida L de tal manera que la probabilidad de que la prdida actual, efectiva, sea mayor que L es ms pequea que alguna probabilidad fija, predeterminada. Verdadero If a bank were to manage its risk by maintaining Value-at-Risk to be no larger than its equity capital, the bank would ensure that it remains solvent with probability at least 1 . Value-at-Risk represents the approximate worse case loss in the sense that the probability that the loss is larger than this approximate worst case loss is less than some small, pre-determined level. 15. The financial intermediaries are shedding risks and withdrawing credit precisely when the financial system is under most stress, thereby serving to amplify the downturn. Los bancos trituran los riesgos y reducen los crditos en el momento preciso cuando el sistema financiero est sometido al mayor estrs, induciendo con ello una mayor amplificacin de la cada. Verdadero In contrast to the wide fluctuations in the risk environment through the VaR to asset ratio, there are much more modest fluctuations in the firms VaR to equity ratio. The difference is accounted for by the active management of leverage by intermediaries, especially the active shedding of risks through deleveraging during times of market stress. 16. For US investment banks, Adrian and Shin (2010) showed that leverage fluctuates through changes in the total size of the balance sheet with equity being the exogenous variable. Para la banca de inversin de USA, Adrian y Shin (2010) mostraron que el apalancamiento flucta mediante cambios en el tamao total de la hoja de balance en el cual el capital se mantiene como una variable exgena. Verdadero Hence, leverage and total assets tend to move in lock-step. 17. Our concern is with the availability of credit through the intermediary, and hence with the lending decisions associated with the portfolio choice of the bank. Nuestra preocupacin es acerca de la disponibilidad de crdito a travs de los intermediarios financieros (bancos), y por ello con las decisiones de provisin de crdito asociadas a las decisiones de portafolio de los bancos. Verdadero Thus, the appropriate balance sheet concept is the total assets of the bank, rather than its enterprise value. The enterprise value is appropriate for investment decisions, corporate takeovers or the sale of new ownership stakes. Total assets and the corresponding book value of equity is the appropriate focus for the availability of credit. 18. Considering a parameter that indicates the stage of the business cycle, high corresponds to boom times, while low corresponds to busts, under quite general conditions on the payoff distribution that are appropriate for extreme outcomes (such as the failure of financial intermediaries), the probability of default of the financial intermediary is invariant to shifts in . Considerando un parmetro que muestra el estado de los ciclos reales, donde alta muestra fases expansivas y baja muestra contracciones, y bajo condiciones generales de la distribucin de las rentas apropiadas para resultados extremos (tal como la quibra de bancos), la probabilidad de default del banco no cambia con (es decir, no cambia con el estado expansivo o contractivo del ciclo real). Verdadero When the economic environment is benign; the bank will expand its balance sheet in accordance with its target probability of default. But when overall risk in the financial system increases, the intermediary cuts its asset exposure in order to maintain the same probability of default. 19. A generalized fall in the permitted leverage in the financial system can lead to a run on a particular institution that has funded long-lived illiquid assets by borrowing short. Una cada generalizada del nivel de apalancamiento del sistema financiero puede inducir corridas bancarias en una entidad particular que ha financiado activos ilquidos, de largo plazo, mediante endeudamiento de corto plazo. Verdadero To the extent that the financial system as a whole holds long-term, illiquid assets financed by short-term liabilities, any tensions resulting from a sharp increase in risk will show up somewhere in the system. Even if some institutions can adjust down their balance sheets flexibly in response to the greater stress, there will be some pinch points in the system that will be exposed by the distressed conditions 20. When financial institutions are managed with log preferences, the probability of default varies systematically with the state of the economy. Cuando las entidades financieras se administran con un sistema de preferencias logartmicas, la probabilidad de default vara sistemticamente, en relacin directa con el estado de la economa. Verdadero An increase in the Sharpe ratio implies an increase in the default probability as institutions with log preferences increase leverage.
Joon-Ho Hahm; Hyun Song Shin Kwanho Shin (2013) "Noncore Bank Liabilities and Financial Vulnerability"
21. In an economy with domestic savers, the main source of funding available to the bank is the retail deposits of the household sector. En una economa con ahorradores domsticos, la principal fuente de fondeo disponible para los bancos son los depsitos de las familias. Verdadero As measures of core liabilities, we sum demand deposits, time, savings, and foreign currency deposits and restricted deposits. 22. The ratio of the noncore to core liabilities will reflect the underlying pace of credit growth relative to trend and may be expected to give a window on the risk premiums ruling in the economy. El ratio de las obligaciones no primarias noncore respecto a las primarias core, reflejar el ritmo de crecimiento del crdito con relacin a su tendencia y se esperara que muestre las primas de riesgo que prevalecen en la economa. Verdadero An increase in the noncore bank liability ratio is associated with an increase in the predicted probability of having a currency crisis 23. When core deposits are sticky and do not grow in line with credit supply, the liabilities side of banks balance sheets will be filled with noncore funding from the capital market. Cuando los depsitos primarios core son rgidos y no crecen al ritmo de la oferta de crditos, los pasivos de los bancos sern complementadas con fondeo no primario noncore proveniente de los mercados de capitales. Verdadero In this way, a higher incidence of noncore funding will be associated with above-trend growth in credit and compressed risk premiums 24. Leverage increases by substituting equity for debt. El apalancamiento se incrementa a travs de la sustitucin de capital por ms deuda. Verdadero Leverage increases through an equity buy-back financed by a debt issue. 25. Lower measured risks and lending booms go together. Menores riesgos contemplados y los booms crediticios ocurren simultneamente. Verdadero Bank lending appears to expand to fill up any spare balance sheet capacity when measured risks are low 26. Given the close connection between procyclicality and capital flows, there are close parallels between currency crises and credit crises in countries that operate with open banking sectors. Dada la alta relacin entre prociclicidad y flujos de capitales, hay alto paralelismo entre crisis cambiaria y crisis crediticia en pases que operan con mercados bancarios abiertos. Verdadero When credit is expanding rapidly, outstripping the pool of available retail deposits, the bank will turn to other sources of funding to support its credit growth, typically from other banks operating as wholesale lenders in the capital market 27. A large stock of noncore liabilities of the banking sector will be associated with compressed risk premiums in the market for bank credit. Un saldo alto de pasivos no primarios noncore de la banca estar asociada con primas de riesgo subestimadas en el mercado de crdito bancario. Verdadero As traditional deposit funding does not keep up with the credit growth, the banking sectors expansion is funded by noncore liabilities (in this case, from foreign creditors), building up vulnerabilities to deleveraging by foreign creditors 28. Currency crises are episodes where the value of the local currency drops abruptly and substantially. Una crisis cambiaria, de la moneda domstica, es cuando sta pierde valor repentina y significativamente. Verdadero Following Frankel and Rose (1996), we define a currency crisis in terms of a currency depreciation of more than 25% in 1 year, and where the depreciation is at least 10% more than the depreciation in the previous year. 29. The credit crisis definition captures episodes of sharply higher market interest rates. La definicin de crisis crediticia captura episodios de tasas de inters de mercado repentina y extremadamente altas. Verdadero A credit crisis is an episode where the money market rate reaches a level that is in the top 3% tail of the pooled in-sample distribution. A more standard measure of credit crisis would have been in terms of the spread between the local risk-free rate and the local rate on private liabilities
30. By analogy with our definition of a credit crisis, we define a stock market crisis as an episode where the rate of change in stock price index belongs to the bottom 3% tail of the pooled in-sample distribution. En forma anloga a la definicin de la crisis de crdito, definimos una crisis del mercado de valores como un episodio donde la tasa de variacin del ndice del mercado de valores cae hasta el nivel inferior de su distribucin (3% inferior). Verdadero Stock market crisis is reflected in an episode of deep downturn in the market stock prices.
44. Developing several different financial institutions serving broad swaths of different constituencies may be a key macroeconomic risk-management tool. Desarrollar muchas y distintas instituciones financieras con funciones que cubren amplios tramos de grupos poblacionales puede ser clave para el manejo de riesgos macroeconmicos Verdadero Diverse financial markets may lead to broader financial market development than less diverse ones. Diverse financial markets then could lower liquidity constraints more than more institutionally concentrated markets. Fewer financial constraints could strengthen and stabilize economic growth. 45. Diverse financial markets may also help mobilize more domestic savings than less diverse markets, thus reducing the need to attract potentially destabilizing portfolio capital inflows. Mercados financieros diversificados pueden tambin ayudar a movilizar una mayor proporcin de los ahorros domsticos que mercados financieros menos diversificados, reduciendo as la necesidad de atraer portafolios de flujos de capitales que podran ser potencialmente desestabilizadores. Verdadero Greater domestic savings mobilization offer households more ways to smooth consumption during economic downturns, stabilizing overall economic growth 46. Greater diversity may mean that a large number of small institutions cannot take full advantage of economies of scale, raising costs for borrowers. Una mayor diversificacin puede implicar tambin que numerosas pequeas instituciones financieras no podran aprovechar plenamente las ventajas de economas de escala, lo que elevara los costos para los prestatarios. Verdadero Many institutions may also vie for too few creditworthy customers, leading to the financing of more speculative projects than otherwise would be the case. Furthermore, inefficiencies can also arise from public interventionsregulatory preferences and subsidiesfor some parts of financial markets. Greater institutional diversity could lead to more instability due to persistent liquidity constraints, growing speculation, and widespread inefficiencies. 47. Public policy, through regulation and public subsidies, can also create greater institutional financial market diversity. Las polticas pblicas, mediante regulacin y subsidios, pueden tambin generar mayor diversificacin institucional del mercado financiero. Verdadero Institutional diversity can mean that a country has a range of banking institutions, differentiated by size and country of origin, and thus by clients and products. It can also mean that both banks and capital markets serve as a source of financing. 48. Foreign bank participation can enhance a financial systems efficiency through spillover effects of increased competition since foreign banks tend to be larger, better capitalized, and have more banking experience than domestic banks in most developing economies. La participacin de bancos extranjeros puede tambin fomentar la eficiencia del mercado financiero a travs de los efectos adicionales de mayor competencia dato que los bancos extranjeros tienden a ser ms grandes, mejor capitalizados, y tienen mayor experiencia bancaria que la banca domstica en la mayora de las economas emergentes. Verdadero Evidence from India, suggests that after the entry of foreign banks, the most profitable firms were the ones located near foreign banks and received larger loans than before (Gormley, 2007). Foreign banks can also more quickly reduce capital constraints than domestic banks because they rely in part on external capital 49. Capital markets may lower costs and liquidity constraints for larger, better-capitalized borrowers more than banks can. Los mercados de capitales pueden reducir los costos y las restricciones de liquidez para prestatarios ms grandes, mejor capitalizados, que lo que los bancos pueden hacer. Verdadero Capital markets could also lessen the chance of collusion between banks and firm managers, which would increase inefficiencies and slow growth 50. More diverse financial systems may lower the size of disruptive asset bubbles because of the availability of more productive and fewer speculative investment opportunities and because boom-and-bust cycles may impact only part of the financial system. Sistemas financieros ms diversificados reduciran la magnitud de burbujas desestabilizadoras en mercados de activos debido a oportunidades de inversiones disponibles ms productivas y menos especulativas y debido a ciclos boom-desplome que slo afectar a parte del sistema financiero. Verdadero The existing literature suggests that institutional diversity may contribute to more economic stability. First, diverse financial systems may increase the amount of available credit, but possibly at the expense of greater inefficiencies. Second, more diverse financial systems may increase the amount of deposits, allowing households and firms to better weather economic downturns. Lima, setiembre de 2013.