ED-STEEP: Education Solutions to Environmental and Economic Problems Fact Sheet Soil Invertebrates

Global Warming Causes and Consequences

What is the Greenhouse Effect?
The earths atmosphere is like the roof of a greenhouse; it allows the suns energy to enter, but prevents some of the energy from radiating back into space. The atmosphere absorbs much of the suns energy and controls the temperature of our planet. Without the greenhouse gases, the Earths surface temperature would be about 0 !. The "greenhouse effect# refers to the fact that this blanket is getting "thicker# because we are increasing the concentration of gases in the atmosphere. $s a conse%uence, more of the suns energy is being absorbed by the atmosphere and re&radiating back to Earth, thus increasing the temperature of our planet.

What are the Greenhouse Gases?

Water 'apor ( the )* greenhouse gas. This is a surprise to most people, because we keep hearing about +,-. .lobal warming is likely to cause more water to evaporate from the surface and more water to be absorbed by the warmer atmosphere. /owever, we dont really know what the conse%uences will be of an increase in atmospheric water vapor. Will the increase in water vapor increase temperatures 0a positive feedback loop12 ,r, will the increase in water vapor lead to more clouds to reflect incoming solar radiation, thus preventing it from reaching the surface2 +arbon 3io4ide ( the )- greenhouse gas. +,- is naturally released into the atmosphere as a result of respiration by living organisms, and by geological events such as volcanic eruptions. /owever, these processes have always gone on and are not the cause of the current level of global warming. What has changed recently is the production of +,- by humans through burning coal, oil, natural gas, and wood. +,- is responsible for about 5-6 of human&made greenhouse gases. The increase in +,- is une%uivocal. The figure below shows the +,- concentration measured at 7auna 8oa, /awaii, and represents the globally mi4ed concentration of +,-.

,ther greenhouse gases9 7ethane 0+/:1 o an e4tremely effective absorber of radiation o lasts only about *0&*- years in the atmosphere o released as part of biological processes in low o4ygen environments 0e.g., swamps, rice paddies1 o growing rice, raising cattle, using natural gas, and mining coal have caused an increase in methane from *.;- ppmv in *<=> to the current concentration of about *.== ppmv; it has not risen much since around *<<0 o ?s responsible for about *<6 of human&produced greenhouse gases Tropospheric ,@one 0,A1 o B' radiation and o4ygen interact to form o@one in the stratosphere, forming the o@one layer o has increased due to emissions from automobiles, pollution from factories, and burning of vegetation. o concentrations have risen by around A06 since the pre&industrial era Citrous ,4ide 0C-,1 o produced by microbial processes in soil and water, fossil fuel burning, nylon production, nitric acid production, and car emissions o produced by interactions between microbes and nitrogenous fertili@ers +hlorofluorocarbons 0+!+s1 o +!+s are produced e4clusively by humans as refrigerants, aerosol propellants and cleaning solvents o destroy stratospheric o@one o because of regulations, levels of +!+s are now remaining level or declining

Is our Planet Getting Warmer?

The annual mean global temperature anomalies over the period *>>0&-00*. The @ero line represents the long term mean temperature from *>>0&-00*, and the red and blue bars are showing annual departures from that mean.

.lobal surface temperatures have increased by about 0.5 + 0plus or minus 0.- +1 since the late *<th century. .lobal surface temperatures have increased by about 0.: ! 00.- to 0.A +1 over the past -; years. -00* was second only to *<<> in terms of global temperature. The trend has been toward increasing temperatures at least since the beginning of the -0th century. 8and temperatures have greater anomalies than the ocean, which is to be e4pected since land heats up and cools down faster than water global warming in not spatially uniform. Dome areas 0including parts of the southeastern B.D.1 have cooled over the last century. The recent warmth has been greatest over Corth $merica and Eurasia between :0 and =0 C indirect indicators of warming such as borehole temperatures, snow cover, and glacier recession data, are in substantial agreement with the more direct indicators of recent warmth Dee9 +hanges in glacier length $rctic sea ice has decreased Dea&ice in the $ntarctic

Where are the Greenhouse Gases Coming From?

?n *<>=, the base year for many +,- reduction plans, -0.; billion tons of carbon dio4ide were pumped into the atmosphere. The industrial world, where only one&third of the population lives, produced >06 of that amount. The Bnited Dtates leads all countries in total and per capita +,emissions.

What are the Consequences of Global Warming?

Enhanced El-Nino Events. ?t has been hypothesi@ed that warmer global sea surface temperatures can enhance the El CiEo phenomenon. El CiEos have been more fre%uent and intense in recent decades. The true connection between global warming and El&Cino events is unknown.

FroGections for changes in El Cino events are still controversial since most models cant distinguish El Cino events. Hesults from the .erman +oupled +limate 7odel 0E+/$71 suggest that, under warmer climates, the number of weak El CinoI8a Cina events are likely to decrease while the number of stronger events increase. The changes in proGected intensity of 8a Cinas is much greater than for El Cinos.

Change in the Water C cle. There have been many recent changes in the water cycle 0e.g., evaporation and precipitation1. /owever, the e4act connection between global warming and these changes in not know. ,verall, land precipitation for the globe has increased by about -6 since *<00. Frecipitation is e4pected to increase over the -*st century, particularly at northern mid& high latitudes, though the trends may be more variable in the tropics. There has been a general increase in precipitation of about 0.;&*.06 per decade over land in northern mid&high latitudes 0e4cept in parts of eastern Hussia1. There has been a decrease of about &0.A6 per decade in precipitation during the -0th century over land in sub&tropical latitudes. Corthern /emisphere annual snow cover e4tent has consistently remained below average since *<>=, and has decreased by about *06 since *<55 0mostly due to a decrease in spring and summer snowfall over both the Eurasian and Corth $merican continents since the mid&*<>0s1. Winter and autumn snow cover e4tent has shown no significant trend for the northern hemisphere over the same period. The general trend of increasing cloud amount over both land and ocean since the early *<>0s seems to have reversed in the early *<<0s, and total cloud amount over land and oceans now appears to be decreasing. 7ore fre%uent droughts will deplete surface water that supplies cities in many regions. !resh water reserves in some western states of the BD$ are now disappearing after many dry years. Winter snowfalls are already :0 to =0 percent lower than normal in some temperate regions. +limate change may aggravate these trends. $ccording to the ?ntergovernmental Fanel on +limate +hange, up to "A billion additional people will e4perience significant decreases in water resources by -0>0.# !ore E"treme and #ariable Climate$ ,n a global scale there is little evidence of sustained trends in climate variability or e4tremes. /owever, on a regional scale, there is clear evidence of climate changes 0see9 ,bserved 'ariability and Trends in E4treme +limate Events9 $ Jrief Heview1.

?n areas where a drought or e4cessive wetness usually accompanies an El CiEo, dry or wet spells have been more intense in recent years. ,ther than these areas, little evidence is available of changes in drought fre%uency or intensity. ?n some areas where overall precipitation has increased 0i.e., the mid&high northern latitudes1, there is evidence of increases in heavy and e4treme precipitation events. E4tra&tropical cyclone activity seems to have increased over the last half of the -0th century in the northern hemisphere, but decreased in the southern hemisphere. ?t is not clear whether these trends are fluctuations or part of a longer&term trend. Tropical storm fre%uency and intensity show no significant long&term trend. .lobal temperature e4tremes have been found to e4hibit no significant trend in inter& annual variability, but several studies suggest a significant decrease in intra&annual variability. There has been a clear trend to fewer e4tremely low minimum temperatures in several widely&separated areas in recent decades. Widespread significant changes in e4treme high temperature events have not been observed. There is some indication of a decrease in day&to&day temperature variability in recent decades. There may be more fre%uent and more violent storms. /urricanes and cyclones get their energy from the heat in sea water, and warmer oceans might e4pand storm regions. ,n the other hand, global warming might reduce the number of mid&latitude storms. Warming of the air will likely be greatest towards the poles. This may reduce the difference in air temperature between the poles and the e%uator, a primary cause of such storms.

Change in %ea &evel$ .lobal mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of * to mmIyear over the past *00 years, which is significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand years. FroGected increases from *<<0&-*00 are anywhere from 0.0< to 0.>> meters. $ rise in -0 cm predicted by -0A0 will affect coastal towns and cities, wetlands, and lowland. 'ecrease in (gricultural Productivit $ $lthough some countries may enGoy increased agricultural productivity, overall a worsening of production inside the continents is predicted. Dmall changes in local and regional crop production are likely to affect global food supplies. The effects of global warming on agriculture are likely to increase as the worlds population continues to grow. !ertile delta and coastal regions will lose agricultural land. ?n Egypt, Jangladesh, ?ndia, and +hine, about *;6 of farmable land will be flooded. .rain&producing areas, such as the .reat Flains of the Bnited Dtates, may e4perience more fre%uent droughts and heat waves. ?n mid&latitude regions, agricultural @ones may shift towards the poles by -00 to A00 km for every degree +elsius of warming. ?rrigation will be difficult in central and southern Europe. 8ong term drought already threatens water supplies in some European and Corth $merican cities.

Wheat, corn, and rice yields may increase in temperate regions, and decline in tropical and subtropical regions.

Fisheries Im)act$ 7any fish species are very sensitive to changes in temperature; thus global warming can be e4pected to severely impact fish populations and fishery industries throughout the word. !or e4ample, warmer water temperatures off of Jritish +olumbia are e4pected to increase migration of salmon northward, leading to a decrease in the Jritish +olumbia salmon population. Increase in *ealth Problems$ $n increase in temperature can be e4pected to increase health problems of urban dwellers. ?n many cities, an increase in temperature means an increase in pollution and associated problems. 7alaria transmission is likely to increase worldwide; people in central $sia, Corth $merica, and northern Europe will be at greater risk as the distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector shifts. /owever, transmission will be limited to a shorter time period. Heductions in crop yields due to global warming may increase the number of malnourished people; the /adley +entre model shows an increase of =0&*-; million people at risk of malnourishment by the end of the century.

%alini+ation Problems. $ rise in sea level may cause salt water intrusion into a%uifers and streams. $ A0 cm rise in sea level would cause salt water to flow ;&*; km further inland. Erosion Problems$ $ rise in sea level will cause erosion of coastal areas. ?n the Bnited Dtates, -0,000 km of coast are likely to be affected. Forest Im)acts$ ?n general, trees wont be able to adapt %uickly to global warming and there will be a significant shift in forest types as global eco@ones change. Those species with limited distributions will be most affected. ?n the mountains of Europe, over half the trees are already diseased, and climate change is hastening the death of forests. /igh temperatures will increase population levels of many insect pests and pathogens. The composition of tropical and boreal forests are likely to change because of changes in rainfall patterns, pest populations, and fires. $s forests change, uptake of carbon by trees may decrease. 'emogra)hic Changes. $s climate changes, there will be maGor shifts in the distributions of people throughout the world as people look to new sources of water, land, and food. There is likely to be a shift in population towards northern cities; if Gust *6 of the global population in -0-; are affected, >0,000,000 people will move to northern cities. ,f *> million refugees in the world today, at least *0 million are environmental refugees. $ third of the worldKs population today lives within 50 km of coastlines; rising sea levels will cause millions of people to lose their homes and sources of food.