Thesis Presentation

Department of Electronic and Information
http://move.dei.polimi.it/
Analysis and development of a prediction algorithm for an electric vehicle range estimation
Supervisor: Sergio SAVARESI Co-supervisor: Matteo CORNO Milan 25/7/2012
Master Thesis of:

Massimo LURASCHI
matr. 739979
Intro
Electric Vehicles (EV) Pros: Indipendent from fossil fuel (ecologic) Much cheaper re-fueling (economic) Better engine efficency Cons: Batteries have much lower energy density than fossil fuel (consequent lower range for EVs) Re-fueling (re-charging) takes much more time for batteries than fossil fuel (9 h vs ~3 min) Solutions: Predict range to plan mobility and avoid useless re-fueling Precise predictions helps exploiting 100% of battery capacity
Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979
Agenda
Runtime acquisition of vehicle signals Current Voltage Velocity State of charge estimation Residual range calculation
Index
Vehicle and setup
Energetic characterization
State of charge and battery pack capacity estimation
Prediction algorithm
Electric Vehicle
Two-seater pure electric vehicle Asynchronous three phase power unit Rear wheel drive Max power: 15 kW (~20.4 CV) Max torque: 150 Nm Max speed: 100 km/h Declared range: 140 km Weight: 542 kg Lenght: 2880 mm Width: 1560 mm Height: 1425 mm
Setup
Signal acquisition from ECU Data sent via Bluetooth Data logging with iPhone Offline data analysis on PC
iPhone Acquisition Unit Gateway

CAN Bus
(work Ive done is circled in red)

Fsend = 5 Hz
Index
Vehicle and setup
Vehicle longitudinal dynamic model Coasting down conditions
Wheel F.
Drag F.
Viscous Friction F.
2 1 & Mv = Fw Fb 2 Cx Sav K vv Cr Mg cos Mgsin
Inertial F.
Braking F.
Rolling Friction F.
Slope F.
Wheel F.
Drag F.
Viscous Friction F.
Inertial F.
Braking F.
Rolling Friction F.
Slope F.
10
Wheel F.
Friction F.
Inertial F.
Braking F.
Slope F.
11
Wheel F.
Friction F.
Inertial F.
Braking F.
Slope F.
Simplified longidudinal dynamic model:
& = v2 v Mv
Friction forces identification
12
Nine coasting down trials done, decelerating from 20 m/s (~72 km/h)
Speed during each coasting down trial 20 18 16 14 Speed [m/s] 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 data1 data2 data3 data4 data5 data6 data7 data8 data9
10
20
30 Time [s]
40
50
60
13
= 0.347 =1.741 =115.822

[ N s2 / m2 ] [ N s / m] [ N]
Efficency estimation Constant speed conditions

Longitudinal dynamic model
14
Wheel F.
Identified Friction F.
(v) Mgsin & = Fw Fb F Mv f

Inertial F. Breaking F. Slope F.
&=0 v =0

Fb = 0

15
Wheel F.

&=0 v =0

Fb = 0

16
Wheel F.

&=0 v =0

Fb = 0
Wheel force estimation
(v) 0 = Fw F f
Efficency estimation
=F (v) F w f
(v) v Pwheel Fwheel v F , v) (F = = w = w Pbatt Vbatt I batt Vbatt I batt

Energetic efficency
17
Constant velocity for lenghts of approximately 10 seconds Average of speed, voltage and current during the trial Different lenghts at different speeds (15-60 km/h)
Efficiency as function of speed 100 90 80 70 Efficency [%] 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 4
10 Speed [m/s]
12
14
16
Index
18
Vehicle and setup
State of charge estimation
19
Estimation method used: Coulomb Counting Numerical integration of power
Ebatt (t ) = E0 Pbatt (t ) dt
0
Drift problem solved by re-initializing the count at every vehicle startup Initialization problem solvable with a voltmetric mapping of the battery pack
Battery pack capacity estimation
20
Definition of complete discharge

Start: vehicle 100% charged Full discharge: vehicle engages limitation mode Battery pack voltage rapidly drops (80 -> 55 V) For safety reasons the trial ends just after engaging limitation mode, not until vehicle switch off (remaining energy is highly negligible)
21
Sudden voltage drop indicates battery pack full discharge

Voltage over time during a full discharge trial 85
80
75
Voltage [V]
70
65
60
55
2000
4000
6000 Time [s]
8000
10000
12000
14000
22
Trial 26/04 02/05 04/05 12/05 14/05 16/05 20/05
Energy [kWh] 9.4546 9.3905 9.0644 11.0707 12.5351 10.2818 10.1224
Distance [km] 116.4678 102.8664 107.5287 123.4066 111.6371 115.6776 114.2595
Etot Average: 10.27 kWh Etot Variance: 1.241 kWh2

Enom: 13 kWh
Index
23
Vehicle and setup
24
Prediction steps
Average consumption identification Remaining battery capacity estimation Foreward projection of average consumption and residual range calculation Focus: calculate average consumption
25
Preliminary analysis about consumption Identification of factors which have impact on consumption calculation Design of an algorithm based on each factor Baseline algorithm Algorithm based on moving window to calculate consumption Algorithm based on initialization value Algorithm based on trip knowledge and classification
26
Analysis motivation
Asses each factors contribution Justify possible implementation costs with results
How?
Sensitivity analysis on each algorithm, assumption: decoupling of each factor Prediction performance evaluation
Range prediction: baseline algorithm
27
Total instant consumption:
E(t ) C(t ) = s(t )
[ kWh km]
Instant residual range:
E(t0 ) E(t ) A(t ) = s(t ) + C(t )
[ km]
Range prediction: baseline algorithm
28
Prediction with trip consumption 200 180 160 Predicted Distance [km] 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0
Actual travelled distance
20
40
60 Distance [km]
80
100
120
Range prediction: performance index
29
Instant prediction error:
e(t ) = s(tend ) A(t )

2 MSE = E s ( t ) A ( t ) ) ( end
[ km]
2 km
Mean Squared Error:
Mean Relative Error:
s(t ) A(t ) MRE = E end s(tend ) s(t )
[%]
30
31
Instant prediction error:
e(t ) = s(tend ) A(t )

2 MSE = E s ( t ) A ( t ) ) ( end
[ km]
2 km
Mean Squared Error:
Average relative error:
s(t ) A(t ) MRE = E end s(tend ) s(t )
[%]
Algorithm based on moving window to calculate consumption
32
33
Instant total consumption is very little sensible to variations as the session goes on (memory effect) Solution: evaluate consumption with a moving window
E(t ) E(twindow ) C(t ) = s(t ) s(twindow )
[ kWh km]
Moving window is basically a filter and as such, it introduces phase displacement: the bigger the window, the more phase displacement Bigger windows have a stronger filtering effect, risking memory effect again (limit: window size = distance in a session) Smaller windows bring to noisy and nervous prediction
Sensitivity analysis: window dimension
34
Prediction sensitivity on fraction dimension 200 180 160 Predicted Distance [km] 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 Baseline Fraction: 3 km Fraction: 15 km Fraction: 30 km
20
40
60 Distance [km]
80
100
120
35
Relative prediction Error in relation with fraction size
23
22 Relative Error [%]
21
20
19
18 3 km 10 km 15 km 20 km Fraction [km] 25 km 30 km Baseline
36
23
21
20
19
> 1%
37
23
21
20
Window width optimal value
19
Algorithm based on initialization value
38
39
Baseline algorithm concentrates biggest error during session startups Cause: Consumption calculation is based on little data, susceptible of ample variations Solution: weighted average with initialization value
Cinit Winit + C(t ) Wtrip C(t ) = Winit + Wtrip
[ kWh / km]
Cinit of choiche: total cumulative consumption (0.1012 kWh/km, on 871 km)

40
Criticalities:
Cinit is only needed when starting a session Bigger Winit leads to a constant prediction Smaller Winit makes Cinit useless Winit and Wtrip must act as oblivion coefficients Good start: fix Wtrip = s(t), elapsed distance gets bigger so it gains more importance during session Winit = ?
Sensitivity analysis: cumulative consumption weight
41
Prediction sensitivity on cumulative consumption weight 180 Baseline weight: 10 km weight: 20 km weight: 30 km weight: 50 km weight: 70 km weight: 100 km
160
140 Predicted Distance [km]
120
100
80
60
40 0
20
40
60 Distance [km]
80
100
120
42
Relative prediction error in relation with cumulative consumption weight 20 19.5 19 18.5 RelativeError [%] 18 17.5 17 16.5 16 15.5 15
10 km
20 km
30 km
50 km Weight [km]
70 km
100 km
Baseline
43
Relative prediction error in relation with cumulative consumption weight 20 19.5 19 18.5 RelativeError [%] 18 17.5 17 16.5
~ 1% 16
15.5 15
10 km
20 km
30 km
50 km Weight [km]
70 km
100 km
Baseline
44
Relative prediction error in relation with cumulative consumption weight 20 19.5 19 18.5 RelativeError [%] 18 17.5 17 16.5 16 15.5 15
Cumulative consumption weight optimal value
10 km
20 km
30 km
50 km Weight [km]
70 km
100 km
Baseline
Sensitivity analysis: cumulative consumption value
45
Cinit Accuracy:
A generic default value is enough? Memorizing each users consumption and using it as Cinit gives better prediction performance? (implementation costs) Trials on a standard track brought evidence of average consumption variation between 0.09 and 0.140 kWh/km depending on the pilot
46
Prediction sensitivity on fraction dimension 180 Baseline cons: 0.08 kWh/km cons: 0.09 kWh/km cons: 0.1 kWh/km cons: 0.11 kWh/km cons: 0.12 kWh/km cons: 0.13 kWh/km
160
140 Predicted Distance [km]
120
100
80
60
40 0
10
20
30
40
50 60 Distance [km]
70
80
90
100
110
47
Relative prediction Error in relation with history weight 20 19.5 19 18.5 RelativeError [%] 18 17.5 17 16.5 16 15.5 15
Actual user consumption: 0.0972 kWh/km
0.08 kWh/km 0.09 kWh/km 0.1 kWh/km 0.11 kWh/km 0.12 kWh/km 0.13 kWh/km
Baseline
48
Relative prediction Error in relation with history weight 20 19.5 19 18.5 RelativeError [%] 18 17.5 17 16.5
~ 3%
16
15.5 15
Baseline
49
Relative prediction Error in relation with history weight 20 19.5 19 18.5 RelativeError [%] 18 17.5 17 16.5 16 15.5 15
Cumulative consumption optimal value
Baseline
Algorithm based on trip knowledge and classification
50
Algorithm based on trip knowledge and classification
Final algorithm based on trip knowledge and classification
51
Big difference between urban, suburban and highway consumption Hypothesis: session track knowledge (e.g.: user sets satNav) Track is split in different track types (urban, suburban and highway) Average consumption in each track type is memorized a priori for each pilot (cumulative cons. updated each session) Predicted consumption for current session: weighted average of cumulative consumption and session consumption, for each track type

Consumption for type of track in progress Remaining distance for each track type Consumption for each track type: weighted average of cumulative cons. and (if present) cons. in current session Sessions entire consumption: weighted avg of consumptions calculated in previous step
52
Eurb (t ) Curb (t ) = surb (t )
%urb (t ) = surb (t0 ) surb (t ) s

(t ) = Curb (t0 ) Winit + Curb (t ) surb (t ) C urb Winit + surb (t )
% (t ) = i {urb,extra,high} C
(t ) s %i (t ) C i
%i (t ) s
i { urb,extra, high}
Residual range
A(t ) = s(t ) +
E(t0 ) E(t ) % (t ) C

Prediction sensitivity on trip knowledge 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0
53
Baseline Trip Knowledge
Predicted Distance [km]
20
40
60 Distance [km]
80
100
120

Prediction error on trip knowledge 100 90 80 70 60 error [%] 50 40 30 20 10 0 0
54
Baseline Trip Knowledge
20
40
60 Distance [km]
80
100
120

Relative Error for each trial 45 Baseline Baseline Mean Trip Knowledge Trip Knowledge Mean
55
40
MRE: 23%
30
25
MRE: 13%
20
15
10
trip knowledge
baseline
Conclusions
56
Initial goal: design of an algorithm for predicting residual range Consumption data observation and hypothesis about influent factors Hypothesis validation with quantitative analysis Result: Baseline prediction improvement: from 23% to 13% MRE
iPhone Software
57
iPhone Software
Gateway connection
58
Bluetooth connection setup is via iPhone settings (not in-app)
Driver selection screen
59
Drivers profile selection from drivers list To accept the choice, change screen by pushing one of the buttons at the bottom
Driver selection acknowledge
60
Driver selection is confirmed by a popup
Application startup
61
Logger home screen
No Gateway connection
62
In case of no gateway connection this screen is shown
If gateway connection is missing, the application will get to this screen, except when sending an e-mail
START button is disabled and red led indicates no gateway connection
Log session starts
63
Upon pushing START button, log session starts
State of charge and vehicle speed are shown
During log session, the led blinks to notify Bluetooth data receival
Log session starts
64
Upon pushing START button, log session starts
State of charge and vehicle speed are shown
During log session, the led blinks to notify Bluetooth data receival
Home button pressed behavior
65
Home button press interrupts log session
Log file is saved, when the app is restored, a new session will be appended to the same file
E-mail log file
66
When STOP button is pressed, log session is over and log can be sent by e-mail
E-mail log file
67
Mail screen
Just need to push Send, to send mail message, or Cancel if you want to delete the message and get back to app home screen
Mail sent successfully
68
Mail sent notified by a popup
Cancel button pressed
69
When pushing Cancel button user is given a choice
Draft saved
70
Draft saved notification
Draft deletion
71
When choosing to delete the draft, a double confirmation is asked When NO button is pushed, log is deleted When OK button is pushed, email sending is re-opened
Graphic screen
72
Graphic screen shows useful information about residual range and drivers consumption
Consumption and residual range prediction graph
73
The graph shows residual range calculated with drivers cumulative consumption and consumption of session in progress
State of charge at startup Drivers cumulative cons. Updated state of charge Avg consumption of session in progress
74
500 m section avg. cons. : red if worse than cumulative, green viceversa
State of charge at startup Avg consumption of session in progress Red if worse, green viceversa
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Department of Electronic and Information

Master Thesis of:

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Vehicle and setup

State of charge and battery pack capacity estimation

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

iPhone Acquisition Unit Gateway

(work Ive done is circled in red)

Vehicle and setup

State of charge and battery pack capacity estimation

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Vehicle longitudinal dynamic model Coasting down conditions

2 1 & Mv = Fw Fb 2 Cx Sav K vv Cr Mg cos Mgsin

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Vehicle longitudinal dynamic model Coasting down conditions

2 1 & Mv = Fw Fb 2 Cx Sav K vv Cr Mg cos Mgsin

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Vehicle longitudinal dynamic model Coasting down conditions

2 1 & Mv = Fw Fb 2 Cx Sav K vv Cr Mg cos Mgsin

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Vehicle longitudinal dynamic model Coasting down conditions

2 1 & Mv = Fw Fb 2 Cx Sav K vv Cr Mg cos Mgsin

Simplified longidudinal dynamic model:

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Friction forces identification

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Friction forces identification

Friction forces identification

= 0.347 =1.741 =115.822

Efficency estimation Constant speed conditions

(v) Mgsin & = Fw Fb F Mv f

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Efficency estimation Constant speed conditions

(v) Mgsin & = Fw Fb F Mv f

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Efficency estimation Constant speed conditions

(v) Mgsin & = Fw Fb F Mv f

Wheel force estimation

(v) v Pwheel Fwheel v F , v) (F = = w = w Pbatt Vbatt I batt Vbatt I batt

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Vehicle and setup

State of charge and battery pack capacity estimation

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

State of charge estimation

Estimation method used: Coulomb Counting Numerical integration of power

Battery pack capacity estimation

Definition of complete discharge

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Battery pack capacity estimation

Sudden voltage drop indicates battery pack full discharge

6000 Time [s]

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Battery pack capacity estimation

Trial 26/04 02/05 04/05 12/05 14/05 16/05 20/05

Energy [kWh] 9.4546 9.3905 9.0644 11.0707 12.5351 10.2818 10.1224

Distance [km] 116.4678 102.8664 107.5287 123.4066 111.6371 115.6776 114.2595

Etot Average: 10.27 kWh Etot Variance: 1.241 kWh2

Vehicle and setup

State of charge and battery pack capacity estimation

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979

Massimo Luraschi matr. 739979