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ANNALS, AAPSS, 472, March 1984
By MICHAELMARGOLIS
NOTE: The author wishes to thank Michael Johnston, Richard Niemi, Bert Rockman, Lee Wein-
berg, and Robert Weissberg for comments on an early draft of this article.
61
62 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY
Still, citizens need not be informed of If, after taking these considerations
details of specific policies. It is surely into account, the results of a poll are
sufficient for them to provide general judged reliable, does it follow that the
guidelines for public policy or to render opinions expressed are more deserving
opinions on the effects of current poli- of the attention of political decision
cies. Citizens can be sound judges of makersthan are those expressed through
policy, even if they are not originators.10 other forms of political communication?
We cannot conclude that citizens neces- Not necessarily. Those who lobby,
sarily have nothing useful to say about demonstrate, write letters, or otherwise
public policy. communicate their opinions to political
But, assuming that citizens have decision makers usually feel more in-
something useful to say, are public opin- tensely about these opinions than do
ion polls a better means of communicat- those who merely reply to a poll. More-
ing their opinions and interests than are over, those who hold their opinions
other means of communication, such as intensely may also be better informed.
voting, lobbying, writing letters, agitat- Thus, to get an estimate of opinions and
ing, or editorializing in the mass media? interests regarding an issue, political
There are two aspects to this question: decision makers may need to weigh the
the reliability of polls and the validity of intensity of feeling and the knowledge of
the answers given to pollsters. those expressing opinions, not merely
Problems of reliability are difficult, the number of persons on each side.12
but they are, in principle, soluble. Sam- The problem of the validity of re-
pling reliability can be enhanced by sponses to polls is even more difficult.
appropriate techniques known as prob- Publicly expressed opinions are often
ability sampling and by achieving a high conventionalized versions of what peo-
rate of response. The reliability of ple really think, conventionalized so as
answers can be enhanced through the to conform to what they perceive to be
development and testing of standard societal norms.13 It is hard, for instance,
question formats and standard tech- to find many Americans these days who,
niques of interviewing. when asked by pollsters, admit to racial
Nonetheless, small changes in the bigotry; yet, as witnessed by events sur-
wording or the format of questions can rounding the recent mayoral elections in
produce surprisingly large variations in Chicago and Philadelphia, the behavior
answers, and even the order of questions of many may belie their answers.
or the environmental context in which If we assume that people's opinions
they are asked can affect the answers."1 form the bases for their actions, then the
It is thus wise to give little credence to simplest test of the validity of an ex-
opinions based on responses to a single pressed opinion is to examine the link-
question, howeverstraightforwardit may age between opinion and some behavior
appear. that is its logical consequence. The
10. Compare Pericles, "Funeral Oration," absence of such linkage would suggest
p. 540. that the opinion expressed was an invalid
11. See Howard Schuman and Stanley Presser,
indicator of relevant political behavior.
Questions and Answers in Attitude Surveys (New
York: Academic Press, 1981), chaps. 2, 3, and 7; 12. Lowell, Public Opinion and Popular
and Burns W. Roper, "Are Polls Accurate?"in this Government, pp. 12-14.
issue of The Annals of the American Academy of 13. Smith, Public Opinion in a Democracy,
Political and Social Science. p. 17.
PUBLIC OPINION, POLLING, POLITICAL BEHAVIOR 65
The presence of such linkage would with particular party affiliations or par-
provide support for the assumption that ticular voting patterns. Despite recent
the opinion expressed was a true one. increases in strength, however, the direct
The Gallup Report, for example, peri- link between positions expressed on
odically prints a table that shows the current issues and subsequent voting
accuracy of the Gallup poll by juxtapos- behavior-let alone other subsequent
ing its final predictions in presidential political behaviors-remains generally
elections against the actual vote over weaker than that between party affilia-
time.'4 The closeness of the actual to the tion and the vote, or between opinions
predicted election outcomes provides expressed about candidates and the
good evidence that responses to the poll vote.'6 Answers to pollsters' questions
regarding electoral preference are valid represent interesting information that
indicators of subsequent collective elec- representatives, political strategists, an-
toral behavior. In the aggregate, people alysts, and others will wish to consider.
vote the way they say they will vote That they represent valid expressions
when asked a few days before the elec- of a generalwill of the people is extremely
tion. doubtful.17
The discovery that most election pol- Finally, even if polls contain ques-
ling is valid, however, is hardly moment- tions on which the public has coherent
ous. In a democratic polity voting is one opinions and which are conventional
of the easiest political actions citizens enough to elicit valid expressions of
can take. It generally requires little those opinions, must those policies
expenditure of money, time, or effort, favored by popular opinions by imple-
and except for voting in referenda, it mented immediately? Theories of repre-
generally represents little in the way of sentative democracy are by no means
direct expression of opinion on ques- unanimous in requiring that representa-
tions of public policy.'5 A more difficult tives conform to day-to-day trends of
problem is to demonstrate a linkage public opinion. The Burkean concep-
between expressed opinions on policies tion of representative government, for
concerning gun control, abortion, civil instance, maintains that representatives
rights, nuclear freezes, inflation, unem- owe their constituents their best judg-
ployment, taxation, bureaucracy, edu- ments on matters of policy, not slavish
cation, investment, armament, energy, conformity with their opinions.
environmental pollution, street crime, Constituents judge their representa-
and the like and subsequent political tives' overall performance at periodic
behavior. elections not on the basis of their con-
This is not to dismiss the usefulness of formity with popular opinions on any
public opinion polls. Responses to ques- particular issue. Indeed the very pur-
tions about issues are often associated 16. See Herbert Asher, Presidential Elections
14. The Gallup Report, no. 204 (Princeton, and American Politics, rev. ed. (Homewood, IL:
NJ: The Gallup Poll, Sept. 1982), or no. 200 (May Dorsey Press, 1980), chap. 4; Norman H. Nie,
1982), for instance. Sidney Verba, and John Petrocik, The Changing
15. Sidney Verba and Norman H. Nie, Partic- American Voter, enlarged ed. (Cambridge, MA:
ipation in America (New York: Harper & Row, Harvard University Press, 1979), pp. 291-306.
1972), chap. 3; or Sidney Verba, Norman H. Nie, 17. Lindsay Rogers, The Pollsters (New York:
and Jae-on Kim, Participation and Political Knopf, 1949), chap. 1,9; Richard E. Vatz and Lee
Equality (New York: Camoridge University Press, S. Weinberg, "The Imperial Pollsters," USA
1978), chap. 3. Today, 107: 6-9 (Sept. 1978).
66 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY
findings that contains little more of away from observing and measuring
direct relevance to public policy deci- behavior directly and toward measuring
sions than it did when Lippmann, in such behavior indirectly by means of
Public Opinion, lamented its lack of public opinion polls.25 As polling data
relevance. The use of polling has greatly have become more available, we have
enhanced our knowledge of how child- attempted to link responses to observed
ren acquire party loyalties, of how par- behaviors less often than to link one set
ticular groups claim to view one another, of verbal responses to another set of
and of what public opinions people verbal responses. True, verbal responses
express about particular policies and comprise a form of behavior, but we
issues. We have learned a great deal must ask ourselvesif the verbal responses
about how some bundles of opinions are validly representthe behaviors that orig-
consistently related to some other bun- inally piqued our interest. Let us look at
dles of opinions. But the only political some examples of how using polling
behavior that we have learned much data has tended to seduce researchers
more about is voting.22 away from observing actual behaviors.
While better knowledge of why var-
ious groups of people vote as they do Discrepancies between
may be of intrinsic interest to selected opinions and behavior
readers, and of practical interest to
When public opinions from the 1940s
many campaigners, it simply does not
tell us much about how, if at all, public through the early 1960s affirmed that
the opinions expressed by most Ameri-
opinion relates to public policy. The
cans failed to exhibit the high levels of
early public opinion analysts were never
so naive as t call an election result an interest in and rationality about politics
that had been idealized in popular ver-
expression fpopular opinion. "The
motives for a ballot of any kind [includ- sions of democratic theory, political
ing referendumand initiative]often differ scientists responded by formulating a
with different people who vote the same plural-elite theory of democracy. This
way," observed Lowell.23"It would take formulation viewed democracy as an
us hours to express our thoughts, and arrangementof political institutions that
calling a vote the expression of our mind provided for open competition among
is an empty fiction," Lippmann wrote.24 interest groups, political parties, and
Ironically, the impact of the behav- freely chosen political leaders. It de-
ioral revolution on the study of public manded little more of citizens beyond
opinion has been to draw our attention acceptance of the legitimacy of the gov-
ernmental institutions and procedures.
Hanson, "Relationship Between Methods and Whether or not large numbers of citi-
Findings in Attitude-Behavior Research," Psy- zens were ignorant or apathetic concern-
chology 17:11-13 (1980).
22. The use of survey research by Sidney ing politics was irrelevant so long as
Verba and his colleagues to examine other forms voluntary groups looked out for most
of political participation has been an important
exception. See fn. 15. See also Lester W. Milbrath
and M. L. Goel, Political Participation, 2nd ed.
(Chicago: Rand-McNally, 1977),especially chap. 1. 25. For a discussion of various views on
23. Lowell, Public Opinion and Popular behavioral political science, see Heinz Eulau, ed.,
Government, p. 25. Behavioralism in Political Science (New York:
24. Phantom Public, p. 56.
Atherton, 1969).
68 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY
citizens' private interests, political par- ever, failed to anticipate these develop-
ties organized and aggregated those in- ments.28 They had been studying the
terests into coherent platforms, and responses to the questions pollsters had
competing leadership elites vied for the set instead of measuring the contrasts
nominations of the parties and the elec- between the promises and performances
toral support of the populace.26 of the programs of the Great Society
Polls showed that Americawas blessed and between the rhetoric of freedom and
with a civic culture, a bundle of attitudes the conduct of the war in Vietnam.29It
held by the citizenry that allowed this became apparent that expressions of
plural-elite democracy to flourish. Even apathy could also represent a reaction to
though citizens were apathetic toward a political system that normally avoided
politics, they nonetheless expressed severe conflicts only by ignoring con-
support for the political institutions and troversial problems that were of prim-
processes that encouraged democratic ary concern to less powerful groups like
standards of behavior among political poor blacks or young people.30
elites. Moreover, most Americans ex- Opinions expressed in polls regard-
pressed confidence in their abilities to ing racial integration, handgun control,
gain sympathetic hearings and desired and women's rights have also tended to
actions from public officials, albeit most contrastwith political behavior. National
also admitted they normally did nothing Opinion Research Center public opin-
more than express their general appro- ion polls show that by 1970 over 80 per-
val or disapproval through their votes. cent of nonsouthern whites favored in-
In the main, however, the attitudes of tegrated public schools, an increasefrom
inactive citizens seemed consistent with 40 percent in 1942.31Polls by the Uni-
the interpretation that apathy toward versity of Michigan's Survey Research
politics represented a tacit expression of
satisfaction.27 28. Report of the NationalAdvisory Commis-
The stark events of the 1960s sug- sion on Civil Disorders (New York: Bantam
gested a less sanguine interpretation. Books, 1968), chaps. 1, 4; James McEvoy and
Abraham Miller, eds., Black Power and Student
Following riots in the black ghettos of Rebellion (Belmont, CA: Wadsworth, 1969),
Brooklyn and Philadelphia in the sum- passim.
mer of 1964, riots and disorderly dem- 29. Compare Rights in Conflict: The Violent
onstrations became commonplace in Confrontation of Demonstrators and Police in the
Parks and Streets of Chicago during the Week of
major cities and college campuses
the Democratic National Convention of 1968
throughout the nation. These events
(New York: Bantam Books, 1968), pp. 13-58;
suggested that beneath the apathy of Aaron Wildavsky, The Revolt Against the Masses
many citizens lay frustration and resent- and Other Essays (New York: Basic Books, 1971),
ment, not a consensus about American pp. 52-65.
30. Jack Walker, "A Critique of the Elitist
political institutions and processes.
Most public opinion analysts who Theory of Democracy," American Political Sci-
ence Review, 60:285-95 (June 1966); William
had relied upon data from polls, how-
Gamson, "Stable Unrepresentation in American
Society," American Behavioral Scientist, 12:15-21
26. Michael Margolis, ViableDemocracy (New (1968).
York: Penguin, 1979), pp. 96-112. 31. Andrew M. Greeley and Paul B. Sheatsley,
27. See Michael Margolis, "Democracy: "Attitudes toward Racial Integration," in Public
American Style," in Democratic Theory and Prac- Opinion: Its Formation, Measurement, and Im-
tice, ed. Graeme Duncan (New York: Cambridge pact, ed. Susan Welch and John Comer (Palo
University Press, 1983), pp. 125-29. Alto, CA: Mayfield, 1975), p. 51.
PUBLIC OPINION, POLLING, POLITICAL BEHAVIOR 69
then turn to mass survey data for possible public housing, medicare, medicaid, and
explanation.37 the like-truly speak louder, and with
greater validity, than do words.
Lacking the treasure troves of polling Because they lacked the rich amounts
data available to modern analysts, the
of polling data now available, pre-war
earlier students of public opinion were
less likely to be sidetracked by the study generations of public opinion analysts
had to rely upon observations of actions,
of attitudes. They kept their efforts
not statements of opinions, as their
directed toward detecting the connec-
tions between behavioral manifestations principal measures of public opinion.38
And while such measures often gave less
of public opinion-lobbying, demon-
reliable estimates of the distribution of
strations, media campaigns, votes, and
the like-and the development of public opinions than do scientific polls, they
almost always represented valid expres-
policy. Their techniques of data analysis sions of public opinion. It turns out that
were less sophisticated and their mea-
much of the literature of public opinion
surements were less reliable than those
that preceded scientific polling remains
of modern analysts, but their findings
and conclusions were usually no less relevant, and we ignore it at our peril.
The value of public opinion polling,
valid.
then, must be kept in perspective. The
results of polls can provide us with reli-
THE LIMITS OF POLLING
able estimates of what people say they
The major conclusion to be drawn want, but these results must always be
from the foregoing discussion is that considered in the context in which they
public opinion polling is but one of a were obtained, and whenever possible
number of ways to measure public opin- they must be validated by comparison
ion. Indeed, if we intend to compare with subsequentpolitical behaviors. Even
public opinion with public policy out- when we are satisfied that the results of a
comes, polling may not even provide a poll reliably and validly represent the
valid measure, especially in circumstan- public's opinions and interests at a given
ces in which social norms dictate the point in time, we must still consider how
proper opinions to express. As we have quickly we expect the popular opinions
seen, it is no longer fashionable for to be translated into formal public pol-
Americans to admit to attitudes favor- icy in a mass representative democracy.
ing racial segregation. Similarly, we Finally, in assessing the value of any
may safely conjecturethat few Americans polling data, we should consider the
publicly favor that millions of their extent to which the data bear directly
compatriots should suffer from poor upon the specific research questions we
nutrition, inadequate housing, or lack
of proper medical care. In such circum- 38. The widespread introduction of interactive
cable television and computer networks linked to
stances, however, actions-white flight
and tolerance of cuts in food stamps, private homes may eventually lead to replacing
current methods of sampling and interviewing
subsidized school lunches, nutrition for with more sophisticated interactive methods that
pregnant women at risk, rent subsidies, can measure the information, initiative, and inten-
sity of concern of citizens regarding any public
issue. See Margolis, Viable Democracy, chap. 7;
37. "Review of Political Tolerance and Ameri- James C. Strouse, The Mass Media, Public Opin-
can Democracy, "American Political Science Re- ion, and Public Policy Analysis (Columbus, OH:
view, 77: 278 (Mar. 1983). Charles Merrill, 1975), chap. 9.
PUBLIC OPINION, POLLING, POLITICAL BEHAVIOR 71