MODELING UTAH POPULATION DATA

Math 1010 Intermediate Algebra Group Project According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, the population of Utah appears to have increased linearly over the years from 1980 to 2008. The following table shows the population in 100,000s living in Utah according to year. In this project, you will use the data in the table to find a linear function f (x) that represents the data, reflecting the change in population in Utah.

Estimates of Utah Resident Population, in 100,000's Year x Population, y 1981 1 15.2 1989 9 17.1 1993 13 19 1999 19 22 2005 25 25 2008 28 27.4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

1.

Using the graph paper on the last page, plot the data given in the table as ordered pairs. Label the x and y axes with words to indicate what the variables represent. Use a straight edge to draw on your graph what appears to be the line that best fits the data you plotted. You will only have one line drawn, rather than several pieces of lines Estimate the coordinates of two points that fall on your best-fitting line. Write these points below.

2.

3.

2 , 15

), ( 28 , 27 )

Use the points that you wrote down to find a linear function f(x) for the line. Show your work!

f(x) = ___

_____

4.

What is the slope of your line? m = ___ _____ Interpret its meaning. Does it make sense in the context of this situation? Please use complete sentences to respond to these questions.

This means that the population grew by about 46,000 people (about 6/13 of 100,000) per year between 1980 and 2008. Since there is little deviation from the plotted points and the line that represents the linear growth it is fair to say that this line is accurate. Also the difference between the population in 1981 and 2008 divided by the number of years between those two points gives us a number that is just below 46,000, thus, making the slope of the line contextually accurate.

5.

Find the value of f (45) using your function from part 3. Show your work, then write your result in the blank below.

f(45) = ___34.8______
Write a sentence interpreting the meaning of f (45) in the context of this project.

According to the function written in part 3, in 2025 (45 years after 1980 the population will be 3,480,000. (34.8 * 100,000)
6.

Use your function from part 3 to approximate in what year the residential population of Utah reached 2,000,000. Show your work.

Utah reached that population 12.8 years after 1980, or 1993.

7.

Compare your linear function with that of another student or group.

Comparison function: f(x) = 1/2x+12.5________________ Is the comparison function the same as the function you wrote down for part 3?

No it is not the same. Both the slope and the y intercept are different, though not by much.
If they are different, explain why.

It is likely that they are different because putting the line in the best place that represents the data is subjective. Though they are different, they are still very similar. Even though the slope is off by 1/26

and the y intercept is off by about 1.5, if you showed the graphs side y side, they would look almost identical.

If they are the same, explain why. In actuality, using a linear growth model for population is not common. Most models are exponential models, due to the fact that most populations experience relative growth, i.e. 2% growth per year. Linear models for nonlinear relationships like population work only within a small time frame valid close to the time of the data modeled. Discuss some of the false conclusions you might reach if you use your linear model for times far from 1980-2008.

8.

If the line is accurate, that would mean that sometime in the year 1949 the population would have been zero.

30 29 28 27 26 25 24 Population 23 In 100,000 22 21 20 19 18

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Years since 1980