Drought Fact Sheet #1

What Is a Drought and How Will It Affect My Community?

Defining Drought Is Key When Developing a Drought Plan
Photo courtesy of Tim McCabe / USDA NRCS

What Is a Drought? There are many definitions of drought. Websters dictionary defines it as 1: a period of dryness especially when prolonged that causes extensive damage to crops or prevents their successful growth; or 2: a prolonged or chronic shortage or lack of something expected or desired. We also have conceptual definitions of drought, which are stated in general terms that most citizens can understand readily, such as We are not getting enough rain, and its starting to affect the land. There are also operational definitions of drought. These definitions are usually triggered by one of the indexes developed for predicting or describing a drought and can describe the ongoing status of the drought. Six indexes have been developed in the United States to help define when observed conditions rise to the level of a drought: 1. The Percent of Normal method is one you frequently hear about during television weather forecasts. It is easy to compute and understand and quite appropriate for a given location or season. This index is sometimes misunderstood because it is based on a mathematical definition of normal, which often does not correspond with the publics view of weather. 2. The Standard Precipitation Index is used by many drought planners. This index can be computed for different time scales and can provide early warning of drought conditions. Since this assessment is based on preliminary data, the values can change and lead to significant inaccuracies. 3. The Palmer Drought Severity Index is a widely used index for drought prediction. It is based on soil moisture and is used by many federal agencies to trigger drought relief programs. The index has

This lake near San Luis Obispo, California barely contains any water following a several year long drought.

been calculated monthly since 1895 and the resulting data can be found at www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/monitoring_and_data/drought.shtml 4. The Crop Moisture Index is derived from the Palmer index and reflects short-term moisture supply. This index does not work well for long-term drought studies. 5. The Surface Water Supply Index was designed to complement the Palmer Method in the State of Colorado. The index uses snow pack, stream flow, precipitation and reservoir storage to make assessments that are unique to each river basin. 6. The Reclamation Drought Index is also computed at the river basin level and adds temperature to the list of parameters used in the

assessment. Both the Bureau of Reclamation and the State of Oklahoma use this index as part of their drought planning. In some cases drought is identified in accordance with a field of study or interest. For example, there are specific definitions from a meteorological (rainfall), hydrological (surface and groundwater), agricultural (soil moisture/crop), and socioeconomic (economic effects on the community) perspective. Additional detail is available at www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/concept.htm You do not need to understand the details of the drought indexing systems to make a Drought Plan. But at some point you will need to define the threshold for putting your plan into action. This is what Drought Planning is all about. While variations in rainfall are normal, they can cause significant stress on a region that is experiencing a prolonged period of decreased precipitation. A community can prepare for variations and have a clear plan in place for dealing with the effects. What Affects Can Drought Have on My Community? The possible impacts from a drought depend on where you live and what you do. Some communities have an economy that is based on agriculture; other communities have an economy based on industry. Some communities rely on rainfall while others have widespread irrigation and will be more resistant to short term drought events. Some municipal users rely on surface water, while others use groundwater and may not be as likely to experience water rationing. There are exceptions to all generalizations. Nonetheless, it is important to understand that there are common effects that need to be considered in the process of developing a Drought Plan. For more information, see Fact Sheet # 11. Common Impacts to Municipalities Drought events have the potential to cause significant disruption to the lives of urban water

users, who consume an estimated 5 - 7% of the water resources in the United States. Even though this seems like a very small percentage of the total water budget, it is tremendously important from a health and political standpoint. Rationing of water usually starts by voluntary limitations on lawn watering, car washing and other discretionary water uses. As supplies grow more limited, these restrictions can become mandatory. Cities may be required to change to back-up or alternate water sources at a significant increase in cost. For more information, see Fact Sheet #6. Common Impacts to Industry Industry is credited with consuming 20 - 22% of the United States water resources. This water use is directly related to jobs and payrolls. The requirement to curtail or shut down industrial production due to water limitations can have devastating effects on a community. In the short term this can result in a loss of payrolls as the water limited plant struggles to maintain its competitive position. In the longer term it may mean the loss of the industry due to uncertainty over the reliability of the water supply. For more information, see Fact Sheet # 4. Common Impacts to Agriculture Agriculture is attributed to using 65 - 75% of the available water resources. Impacts on agriculture differ significantly based on the availability of groundwater and the agricultural communitys reliance on natural rainfall. Reduced yields commonly reduce payrolls and cause reduced sales levels for the many companies that service the farm industry. Drought Plans can help sustain agricultural business units and their supporting businesses by ensuring equitable water distribution. For more information, see Fact Sheet #5. The NARC&DC would like to thank the USDAs Natural Resources Conservation Service for their assistance in the development of this fact sheet.

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March, 2006