Bangladesh-China Relations: A Summit Preview

Khaled Iqbal Chowdhury

Introduction: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasinas upcoming visit to China has stirred a lot of interest and raised expectations in the diplomatic arena. China is one of Bangladeshs largest trading partners and Chinas contribution to Bangladeshs infrastructural development is also noteworthy. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasinas China visit starting on 17 March 2010 is the first top-level meeting between the two countries after Awami League won the general elections in December, 2008. Therefore, the up-coming visit is attributed with immense significance in terms of Sino-Bangladesh bilateral relations. Earlier, a high-level delegation led by Awami League General Secretary Syed Ashraful Islam visited China in December 2009 and held meetings with senior Chinese leaders. According to media sources, the Prime Ministers International Affairs adviser Professor Gowher Rizvi also visited Beijing in 2009 in an effort to boost ties with the Government of China. China is a growing power and it is in Bangladeshs interest not only to maintain but also to further economic ties and other cooperative mechanisms with China. Many hope that the upcoming summit-level meeting between Bangladesh and China will bring about qualitative change in the nature of relations between the two countries.

Connectivity: Today, we are living in an age of connectivity. Connectivity not only opens the way to trade and commerce, but also plays a vital role in reinforcing relations among/between neighbouring countries. During the Bangladeshi Prime Minister's recent visit to New Delhi, Bangladesh offered India the use of Chittagong port facilities to transport goods. The Joint Communiqu also noted that Bangladesh would offer similar facilities to Nepal and Bhutan if India granted transit permission to these two countries. Now, if we can connect with China through Myanmar, considering the magnitude of commercial prospects, Bangladesh could become a commercial hub of South- and South-East Asia. This will institute immense value to our economic growth. Chinas southwestern Yunnan province is nearer to Chittagong than it is to Shanghai or Beijing. Allowing China to link up with a Bangladeshi sea-port would be a lucrative offer to Chinas booming commerce. As a result, Bangladesh's trade with China, Myanmar (and also with India, Nepal and Bhutan) will burgeon dramatically. Currently, Bangladesh has a massive trade deficit with two of its largest trading partnes - China and India. We believe that Bangladesh will bring up the issue of connectivity when the two heads of the states meet in Beijing.

Bangladesh in 2007 inked an agreement with Myanmar to construct a 25km-ong road to connect the two countries. The project will eventually be expanded to link BangladeshMyanmar-China into a tri-national network. When Bangladeshs Forign Minister Dipu Moni visited Myanmar last year, she reiterated that the envisaged road network would open up new avenues of exapanded regional trade and commerce. This will benefit all the three countries concerned- China, Bangladesh and Myanmar. It will also help to develop common stakes for these countries, stakes that none would find it in its interest to compromise. Consequently, the existing strains in relations would likely wither away and generate a win-win situation. We believe that the Prime Minister's China visit bears immense significance in terms of regional diplomacy. The Bangladeshi side should emphasise the connectivity issue for a fast-track implementation of the tri-nation road network project. This is a realistic and affordable goal with significant gains for all sides. Apart from road connections, Bangladesh may also want to explore the possibility of connecting with East Asia through other modes of transportation. Recent reports suggest that discussions have been underway to extend China's 'high-speed railway network' to 17 Asian and European countries along three routes. These three routes are: 1. Kunming (Yunnan) - Myanmar - Singapore 2. Xinjiang - Central Asian 'Stans' - Germany 3. Liaoning - Russia - Europe Discussions are at an advanced stage on the first route and the construction of this route is expected to begin soon. If Bangladesh were able to link up with - or even get close to this new railway network from Cox's Bazar-Teknaf area, Bangladesh's trade and tourism prospects too would improve significantly. Bangladesh fashioned a 'Look East' policy shift over a decade ago. However, it has failed to substantively translate this policy into reality. Successful implementation of this policy could open up new vistas of trade, commerce, economic, educational, scientifictechnological and cultural collaboration with countries of South East Asia. Road and railway linkages with South-East Asia via Myanmar would establish new pathways for people, goods and ideas linking Bangladesh to the whole of the ASEAN-10 as well as China. The potential of such connectivity to boost Bangladesh's economy is substantial and the opportunity costs of not realising this potential is enormous.

Infrastructural Capacity Building: The current government of Bangladesh has laid out Vision 2021 to mark the golden jubilee of Bangladeshs independence. According to this 2021 vision, the government is committed to elevating Bangladesh to a middle-income country by 2021. The plan also envisages a Bangladesh with expanded road, rail, river and air transport and telecommunication network. This is a noble vision but experts stress that it would require significant increases in micro-level job creation via macro-level generation of employment opportunities. It would require us to put in enormous effort to expand our

existing infrastructural capacities- transport, energy and IT facilities- across the country. This may sound ambitious but certainly not too farfetched. With proper motivation and persistence Bangladesh can attain this vision. China has demonstrated its capacity and effectiveness in these sectors over the past two decades. China has not only built its own facilities, but also built cost-effective, energy-efficient installations in other developing countries. Bangladesh needs to take advantage of this capacity, and we hope the Prime Ministers China visit will open the way to a crucial breakthrough in this pursuit.

Tourism: Tourism in Bangladesh remains one of the untapped areas. Bangladesh has immense potential for tourism and can offer its magnificent Cox's Bazar-Teknaf coastal belt as an unavoidable tourist destination to the world. Tourism potentials here are enormous but to attract steady flows of foreign tourists, it would require substantial investment in resources, planning sophistication, and technical expertise. China is not only able to provide the required support but China has also expressed its willingness to do so on many occasions. Coxs Bazar, with its longest uninterrupted natural beach in the world, can become the most favoured tourist destination for the large middle classes with disposable incomes from south-western Chinese provinces. Because of the advantage of proximity compared to coastal resorts in south-eastern China, a well-developed Coxs Bazar would beat the competition hands down. If we can materialise this opportunity, a steady revenue flow could be ensured to boost Bangladeshs over all tourism sector. All we need to do is to lay out a comprehensive Tourism Policy and to initiate negotiations with the Chinese government in order to attract investment in this vital sector. This possibility should be explored when the two heads of government meet in Beijing.

R&D Cooperation: The Government of Bangladesh has vowed to build Digital Bangladesh with a view to overhauling the existing scientific-technological resource base of the country. Over the past two decades, especially since 1986, China has made tremendous advancement in its own scientific-technological resource base on the strength of which the current leadership is focusing its 'scientific development' precept. This is an area where Bangladesh government can seek and obtain assistance in helping to establish R&D centres in Bangladesh, train Bangladeshi experts, transfer technology, and create Bagngladesh's next generation of scientists for developing the country's scientific skills-base and modernise its economy.

Trade and Investment: China has already become the largest trading partner of Bangladesh supplanting India. The Bangladesh-China bilateral trade volume increased from US$1.1 billion in 2002 to US$4 billion in 2008 and is predicted to approach US$5 billion by the end of 2010; but

the balance is tilted towards China. According to Bangladesh Bank sources, Bangladeshs import payments to China during the July-September (2009) quarter exceeded US$917 million, whereas, the export receipts were only over US$23 million. Therefore, to reduce the trade imbalance both the governments should initiate extensive talks immediately. The Government of Bangladesh needs to take initiatives (trade expo etc.) to communicate directly with the Chinese business community to expand our export volume to China. New and large-scale Chinese investment in the country can play a major role in reversing the current balance-of-payment status by turning it into Bangladeshs favour.

End Words: Sino-Bangladeshi relations go back a long way. China has already made notable contribution to the infrastructural developments of Bangladesh. China is already the third largest economy of the world and has replaced Germany to become the largest exporter in the world. Apart from its global role, China is increasingly becoming a major player in the South Asian geopolitical affairs. Against this backdrop, the up-coming visit of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina provides Bangladesh with an opportunity to present itself as a major stakeholder in regional development and prosperity to China. We hope the visit will boost already deepened Sino-Bangladeshi trade relations, bring both the countries closer, and secure more Chinese assistance for our long-term economic development.

Khaled Iqbal Chowdhury is working as a Research Analyst at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS).