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Web Site: www.ijettcs.org Email: editor@ijettcs.org, editorijettcs@gmail.com Volume 3, Issue 1, January February 2014 ISSN 2278-6856
1. Introduction
Crude oil is a fossil fuel, meaning that it was made naturally from decaying plants and animals living in ancient seas millions of years ago, most places you can find crude oil were once sea beds, vary in color, from clear to tar-black, and in viscosity, from water to almost solid [1]. Several studies have been performed on the data of crude oil in order to prove that the crude oil is predictable. There are more types of prediction: Traditional time series prediction, Neural Networks, Support Vector Machine and Case Based Reasoning [2]. On other hand, crude oil usually found underground but can also be found above ground in oil seeps or tar pits. Crude oil is used to produce fuel for cars, trucks, airplanes, boats and trains. It is also used for a wide variety of other products including asphalt for roads, lubricants for all kinds of machines, plastics for toys, bottles, food wrap and computers. Intelligent system is the system within artificial intelligence. Many intelligent system are use to produce the crude oil. An intelligent system on crude oil field as a new technology aims to build new technique for crude oil prediction is the central goal of this survey. This survey tries to build general idea about tow central scientific items which are an intelligent system and prediction technique. Prediction represents the sensitive process that uses many theories and functions to produce detecting results. Since the beginning of discover crude oil, there are increase of searches about using intelligent systems for crude oil exportation, production and Volume 3, Issue 1 January February 2014
prediction. Using new technology through update an intelligent system aims to increase the ability of discovering crude oil and increase sources of energy around the world. Prediction of crude oil by discovered and updated an intelligent system through use many techniques and computer technology. The process of crude oil prediction through an intelligent approaches corresponding to the change of crude oil properties provided by a group of experienced engineers. While the techniques output variables were dened as oil product qualities, the built ANN model can be applied on predicting [3]. Over the last decade, related searches declares that NNs have been most widely used and shown better performance over other approaches in many cases , conceptually, other searches used other computing techniques to provide the prediction processes [4]. This approach tries to compare and prove scientifically which effective technique to achieve which most that approaches used within accurate results on crude oil domain [5].
2. Literature Review
Many studies are approved, more than one intelligent technique which is represented on crude oil domain, specially, on crude oil prediction processes. Since the crude oil was firstly introduced, many have attempted to predict the crude oil using various computational techniques such as Neural Networks, Fuzzy Neural Network [6], and Support Vector Machines, Case-based Reasoning, Gray model and other techniques [7]. Some of searches are using Grey model, Gray-Markov model and curve algorithms for crude oil. The world's first commercial oil well was drilled in Poland in 1853. Oil exploration developed in many parts of the world with the Russian Empire, particularly the Branobel company in Azerbaijan (Asia's first modern borehole oil production began in 1848. Today, about 90% of vehicular fuel needs are met by oil. Petroleum also makes up 40% of total energy consumption in the United States, but is responsible for only 1% of electricity generation. Petroleum's worth as a portable, dense energy source powering the vast majority of vehicles and as the base of many industrial chemicals makes it one of the world's most important commodities [ 8]. On other hand, viability of the oil commodity is Page 284
Figure 1 Computing techniques on crude oil domain The techniques which are used on crude oil prediction domain are differ from one to another according to the goal and the dataset, most techniques focus on prediction, price, prediction and other, as shown as fig(2) [14].
Figure 3 Computing techniques with crude oil Through review many systems for crude oil prediction, it seems that there are many search area on crude oil prediction need for discussion and solve the paradox on these areas [16]. Furthermore, the different intelligent system within techniques used to predict of crude oil availability on the same field, conceptually, using new Page 285
Figure 2 Related processes of crude oil domain Volume 3, Issue 1 January February 2014
- Table (3), display the application of crude oil PVT domain, Fuzzy neural network and support vector machine are used.
Table 1 Crude oil prediction production applications Volume 3, Issue 1 January February 2014
Support vector machine and neurofuzzy systems are used to predict crude oil properties such as pressure, volume and temperature. The results show that SVM achieve more accurate and better results than other intelligence techniques which used on the same field, used the same petroleum dataset. Conceptually, there are other intelligent techniques which using other techniques that approve on petroleum prediction field, the researches which are discussed are achieved more precision and efficiency than other intelligent kernel methods (i.e. intelligent technique algorithms). Eventually, in table (4), display the application of crude oil prediction within related domain based on gravity, viscosity and climate. In addition, Fuzzy-type2 Fuzzy and BPNN and different expert systems are used. The results of this type of prediction show that there are multiple intelligent techniques used to support petroleum prediction domain. All these techniques produce accurate results, the difference on the techniques usage depends on Page 286
4. Conclusion
In this paper, we examined recent developments in crude oil prediction models by comparing various crude oil intelligent techniques. We found that NNs (BPNN) offer the most cases use in petroleum prediction domains; otherwise, Fuzzy system achieve the best prediction results on intelligent systems that depends on dataset. On other hand, SVM has the ability to predict crude oil directions more accurately than other existing techniques.
References
[1] Lean Yu , Kin Keung Lai , Shouyang Wang , and Kaijian He ,Oil Price Forecasting with an EMD-Based Multiscale Neural Network Learning Paradigm,Proceeding of ICCS, pp:926-932 , 2007. [2] Hanh H.Nguyen, Christine W.Chan ,Applications of data analysis techniques for oil production prediction, Proceeding of Engineering Applications of Articial Intelligence, pp:549558 ,2005.
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system department, Faculty of computer and information science, Ain shams university, Egypt. Prof. Dr. Abdel-Badeeh M Salem is a Professor of Computer Science since 1989 at Ain Shams University, Egypt. His research includes intelligent computing, knowledge-based systems, biomedical informatics, and intelligent e-learning. He has published around 250 papers in refereed journals and conferences. He has been involved in more than 400 conferences and workshops as a Keynote Speaker, Scientific Program Committee, Organizer and Session Chair. Prof. Dr. Mohamed Tolba was the X-Vice President of Ain Shams More than 300 publications in the fields of University in 2004-2006. Dr. Tolba was the first Dean of the Faculty of Computer and Information Sciences, Ain Shams University. He has AI Image Processing and Scientific Computing. He has been involved in more than 400 conferences and workshops as a Keynote Speaker, Scientific Program Committee, Organizer and Session Chair.
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