Cassidy Turley - U.S. Industrial Trends - Q4 2014

U.S.
Industrial
Trends Report
4th Quarter 2013
Contents
U.S. Industrial Sector Analysis. .................................................................3-4
U.S. Industrial Sales ...................................................................................5
Net Absorption by Metro. ..........................................................................6-7
Vacancy Rates by Metro............................................................................8-9
Asking Rents by Metro...........................................................................10-11
Inventory by Metro. ..............................................................................12-13
Methodology..............................................................................................14
Kevin Thorpe
Chief Economist
2101 L Street, NW, Ste. 700
Washington, DC 20037
Kevin.Thorpe@cassidyturley.com
Jennifer Edwards
Research Manager
2101 L Street, NW, Ste. 700
Washington, DC 20037
Jennifer.Edwards@cassidyturley.com
2 | Cassidy Turley
U.S. Industrial Sector Analysis

Economy
The U.S. recovery gathered momentum in the second half of 2013, and that helped the industrial
sector close out another robust year of absorption. Real GDP growth registered a healthy 4.1%
in the third quarter of the year, and the latest data on business and consumer spending indicates
GDP growth will again exceed 3% in the fourth quarter. Remember, GDP growth has averaged just
a tick above 2% during most of the current economic recovery, so the latest trends do represent a
signicant acceleration.
All the key fundamentals that drive demand for industrial space generally gained momentum in the
fourth quarter of 2013. Most notably, consumer spending remained surprisingly resilient. Retail
sales grew around 4.5% in the fourth quarter from a year ago. This was a quarter that included
a 16-day partial government shutdown that was supposed to drag on spending didnt happen.
Retail sales increased by 4% during 2013, more than doubling the pace registered in 2012. The
auto sector in particular was a strong performer all year long. But there was also strong evidence of
growth in multiple discretionary segments including home furnishings, electronics and appliances,
restaurants and apparel stores. Manufacturing another key player in the industrial sector also
helped drive better growth. The ISM manufacturing index a solid gauge for the health of the
manufacturing sector has been consistently above 50 since July indicating the manufacturing
sector remains in clear expansion mode.
Market Indicators
4th Quarter 2013
2013
4Q
Net Absorption
34.8M
Vacancy
8.2%
Asking Rents
$5.20
Under
Construction
71.1M
Trend
(from previous Qtr)
We also a got a small dose of positive news, or at least, less terrible news, on the policy side things. Lawmakers reached a budget deal in
December of 2013 - the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013 - that will effectively keep the federal government funded through the fall of 2015.
Although the deal did not address the long-term decit challenges from ballooning entitlement programs, in all probability, the accord did eliminate
a portion of the sequestration cuts that were scheduled to occur in 2014 and 2015. As a result, scal policy (i.e., higher taxes and spending cuts
that knocked 1.5 percentage points off of real GDP growth in 2013), will restrain growth in 2014 by an estimated 0.3%. The gale-force headwind
is nally dying down.
Industrial Sector
Demand for industrial space continues to be strong. In the fourth quarter of 2013, the U.S. industrial sector absorbed 34.8 million square feet
(msf), up from the 31.7 msf absorbed in the previous quarter. In total, the industrial sector absorbed 121.3 msf in 2013 the strongest reading
since 1998. Vacancy is tightening rapidly, falling another 50 bps during 2013 to nish the year at 8.2%. Of the 68 metros tracked, 51 registered
declines in vacancy in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago. The lofty demand numbers have sparked a new wave of development. As
the fourth quarter came to a close, there was 71.1 msf of new industrial space under construction, up 85% compared to a year ago. New
development was particularly strong in Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Dayton, Houston, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Central New Jersey, Oakland-East
Bay, Phoenix and Seattle all with 2 msf or more in the pipeline.
U.S. Net Absorption vs. Vacancy
U.S. Asking Rents

4%
$5.24
9.6%
9.2%
30
8.8%
20
8.4%
10
8.0%
3%
$5.16
Asking Rent
40
Vacancy Rate
(msf)
$5.20
2%
$5.12
1%
$5.08
$5.04
0%
$5.00
-1%
$4.96
Absorption
Source: Cassidy Turley Research
-2%
Asking Rent
Vacancy Rate
Q4 13
Q3 13
Q2 13
Q1 13
Q4 12
Q3 12
Q2 12
$4.92
Q1 12
Q4 13
Q3 13
Q2 13
Q1 13
Q4 12
Q3 12
Q2 12
Q1 12
Q4 11
7.6%
Q4 11
Yr/Yr % Change
50
Yr/Yr Change
cassidyturley.com | 3
U.S. Industrial Sector Analysis

Asking Rents
Select Markets, Avg. Rent 4Q 2013
Industrial Sector cont.

Industrial rents are nally starting to gain upward momentum. Average asking rents rose to $5.20
NNN in the fourth quarter, a 3.3% increase from a year ago. Rents are still 9.2% below their
peak achieved in 2007, but they have been inching upward since the fourth quarter of 2012.
Rents are now rising in 75% of the country, with over one-third of the markets tracked reporting
5% rent growth or better.
Long Island, NY
Rents
(NNN)
Yr/Yr
% Chg.
$11.13
-0.3%
Suburban VA
$8.53
1.5%
Suburban MD
$7.35
2.8%
San Diego, CA
$6.84
-1.7%
Northern NJ
$5.84
1.9%
Los Angeles, CA
$5.75
2.1%
Oakland-East Bay, CA
$5.16
3.4%
Denver, CO
$5.04
1.2%
Phoenix, AZ
$5.04
0.0%
Central NJ
$4.87
4.1%
Minneapolis, MN
$4.82
6.9%
Baltimore, MD
$4.80
5.5%
Outlook
Pittsburgh, PA
$4.65
2.2%
Houston, TX
$4.60
0.4%
Demand for industrial space has been consistently strong through this slow economic recovery,
and there little reason to believe it wont accelerate when the recovery morphs into something
more robust. Most economists are calling for exactly that. The consensus forecast projects real
GDP growth to average 3% in 2014 roughly 100 bps stronger than the growth rate averaged for
most of this recovery. Job growth is expected to accelerate from 180,000 net new jobs added per
month in 2013 to a monthly average of 200,000 in 2014. The virtuous cycle of rising condence
which leads to greater consumer spending which leads to stronger prots and more hiring which
leads to even more spending, is expected to nally materialize in 2014.
Chicago, IL
$4.46
0.0%
Sacramento, CA
$4.44
0.0%
Boston-Cambridge, MA
$4.37
0.0%
Raleigh, NC
$4.31
12.5%
Industrial sales activity, warehouse + ex, was a tale of two halves in 2013: slow in the rst half,
strong in the second. Overall, 2013 will go down as another year of growing momentum for the
capital markets. From Jan-Nov of 2013, sales volume of signicant industrial properties totaled
$40.5 billion, up 28% compared to the same period a year ago. The warehouse sector is driving
most of the increase in activity, with sales volume up 36% during Jan-Nov 2013; ex sales were
up 11% over the same period. The warehouse sector is also experiencing a strong acceleration in
price appreciation. Average cap rates moved downward 20 basis points (bps) from the beginning
of year to 7.3% in November.
If the consensus outlook is right, the industrial sector could challenge the record books in 2014.
Under a 2% GDP growth rate environment, the industrial sector has absorbed at least 100 msf for
three straight years. Under a 3% GDP growth scenario, we estimate absorption to register around
140 msf in 2014. That would place industrial demand in the top 3 levels of all time since 1990.
Demand for newly built, large distribution centers that cater to e-commerce has been particularly
robust in this recovery. We estimate that ecommerce-related demand accounted for nearly 40%
of all net absorption in 2013 a trend we expect to continue going forward.
Tampa, FL
$4.22
1.0%
Kansas City, MO
$4.16
2.2%
Nashville, TN
$4.10
2.2%
Dallas, TX
$4.01
4.2%
Saint Louis, MO
$3.97
-1.0%
Charlotte, NC
$3.93
0.3%
Milwaukee, WI
$3.93
-1.5%
Cleveland, OH
$3.86
1.0%
Columbus, OH
$3.85
0.0%
Indianapolis, IN
$3.71
0.8%
Louisville, KY
$3.59
15.1%
Atlanta, GA
$3.53
1.4%
Cincinnati, OH
$2.88
-1.7%
Dayton, OH
$2.60
2.8%
Net Absorption
Net Absorption as % of Inventory
Select Markets, 2013
Select Markets, 2013
10
3.2%
2.4%
(msf)
1.6%
4
0.8%
0.0%
Chicago
Dallas
Atlanta
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Central NJ
Oakland-East Bay
Houston
Baltimore
Nashville
Columbus
Phoenix
Kansas City
Charlotte
Denver
Seattle
Minneapolis
Northern NJ
San Diego
Indianapolis
Dayton
Boston-Cambridge
Louisville
Saint Louis
Sacramento
San Mateo County
Suburban VA
Los Angeles
Raleigh
San Jose-Silicon
San Francisco
4 | Cassidy Turley
San Mateo County

Suburban VA
Minneapolis
Baltimore
Atlanta
Charlotte
Central NJ
Oakland-East Bay
Cincinnati
Dallas
Milwaukee
Nashville
Dayton
Raleigh
Kansas City
Louisville
Boston-Cambridge
Seattle
Columbus
San Diego
Tampa
Denver
Houston
Phoenix
Chicago
Sacramento
Indianapolis
Saint Louis
Northern NJ
San Jose-Silicon
San Francisco
Industrial Sales
U.S. Industrial Sales Volume
$12
Industrial Sales
Select Markets, Jan - Nov 2013
$10
Seattle, WA
$1,057.5
$93.4
Atlanta, GA
$1,031.1
$49.6
Phoenix, AZ
$975.4
$80.9
Boston, MA
$833.5
$74.2
Milwaukee, WI
$826.3
$50.5
Warehouse
$205.5
Minneapolis, MN
$504.7
$38.1
Saint Louis, MO
$504.7
$42.8
Suburban MD
$495.1
$80.1
Nashville, TN
$487.8
$69.6
Indianapolis, IN
$474.9
$38.0
Baltimore, MD
$458.7
$46.7
Denver, CO
$446.5
$63.9
Detroit, MI
$434.1
$23.0
Charlotte, NC
$361.1
$39.0
Cincinnati, OH
$354.4
$37.5
Austin, TX
$304.1
$78.4
Sacramento, CA
$280.1
$60.3
Tampa, FL
$191.9
$37.9
Kansas City, MO
$175.6
$42.7
Raleigh/Durham, NC
$165.2
$61.9
9%
8%
7%
6%
May-11
$140.7
$508.2
Dec-10
$636.1
San Francisco, CA
Jul-10
Suburban VA
10%
Feb-10
$102.9
Sep-09
$138.2
$669.7
U.S. Industrial Cap Rates
Apr-09
$677.2
East Bay, CA
Flex
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Nov-08
San Diego, CA
Nov-13
$133.5
Warehouse
Nov-13
$52.8
$1,218.5
Jun-13
$1,352.0
Orange County, CA
Jun-13
Houston, TX
$0
Jan-13
$72.4
Jan-13
$68.1
$1,656.9
Aug-12
$1,751.0
Inland Empire, CA
Aug-12
Northern NJ
Avg. = $2.4B
$2
Mar-12
$200.9
Mar-12
$1,833.3
Oct-11
San Jose, CA
$4
Oct-11
$45.3
May-11
$59.8
$1,866.0
Dec-10
$2,140.5
Chicago, IL
Jul-10
Dallas, TX
$6
Feb-10
$98.6
Sep-09
$2,651.8
Apr-09
Los Angeles, CA
$8
Nov-08
Average
PSF
Billions
Volume
(mil)
Market
Flex
Industrial Acquistion by Buyer Type

$60
Billions
$40
$20
$0
01
02
Cross-Border
03
04
05
Inst'l/Eq Fund
06
07
08
09
Listed/REITs
10
11
Private
12 Q1-3 Q1-3
12 13
User/other
Net Absorption
2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
2013 4Qp
100,812,000
103,633,000
121,563,000
40,254,000
28,602,000
26,383,000
31,726,000
34,852,000
8,036,000
2,067,000
11,385,000
82,000
2,720,000
2,134,000
3,773,000
2,758,000
Midwest
21,679,000
35,179,000
37,362,000
10,075,000
9,164,000
10,646,000
9,185,000
8,367,000
South
49,782,000
42,301,000
46,524,000
20,036,000
11,414,000
11,600,000
10,128,000
13,382,000
West
21,315,000
24,085,000
26,292,000
10,061,000
5,304,000
2,003,000
8,641,000
10,345,000
United States
Northeast
-194,000
-404,000
185,000
-226,000
-276,000
22,000
256,000
183,000
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA
1,530,000
411,000
-43,000
-159,000
233,000
-216,000
-249,000
188,000
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
5,373,000
4,842,000
7,687,000
1,779,000
2,410,000
2,987,000
968,000
1,322,000
914,000
926,000
962,000
477,000
219,000
312,000
160,000
271,000
Albuquerque, NM
Austin-Round Rock, TX
2,449,000
1,625,000
3,576,000
617,000
1,200,000
64,000
1,070,000
1,242,000
Birmingham-Hoover, AL
414,000
612,000
-73,000
-111,000
95,000
113,000
-243,000
-38,000
1,352,000
1,011,000
1,775,000
310,000
441,000
630,000
785,000
-81,000
-450,000
236,000
-973,000
-223,000
-62,000
-560,000
-291,000
-61,000
Charleston-North Charleston, SC
3,102,000
163,000
-470,000
308,000
-117,000
379,000
-647,000
-85,000
Charlotte, NC
2,929,000
2,100,000
2,970,000
829,000
326,000
944,000
574,000
1,126,000
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL
3,344,000
14,703,000
9,136,000
3,587,000
3,098,000
3,340,000
557,000
2,141,000
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN
175,000
2,384,000
5,024,000
497,000
1,206,000
1,203,000
1,999,000
617,000
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
158,000
183,000
1,313,000
79,000
50,000
374,000
516,000
373,000
Colordo Springs, CO
651,000
427,000
287,000
184,000
88,000
73,000
84,000
42,000
Baltimore, MD
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Columbia, SC
604,000
-228,000
367,000
65,000
-246,000
320,000
150,000
142,000
Columbus, OH
-592,000
2,325,000
3,405,000
219,000
-1,312,000
1,875,000
1,661,000
1,181,000
5,011,000
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX
Dayton, OH
Denver-Aurora, CO
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
10,941,000
8,899,000
8,899,000
3,635,000
709,000
1,942,000
1,238,000
1,182,000
2,104,000
1,778,000
1,454,000
657,000
721,000
400,000
-430,000
2,365,000
2,937,000
630,000
307,000
323,000
1,366,000
941,000
5,715,000
-36,000
2,729,000
740,000
1,787,000
39,000
152,000
751,000
5,000
982,000
1,579,000
100,000
485,000
300,000
333,000
462,000
Greensboro-Winston-Salem, NC
-69,000
763,000
-982,000
487,000
37,000
37,000
-797,000
-259,000
Greenville, SC
943,000
820,000
453,000
378,000
191,000
31,000
192,000
39,000
48,000
68,000
-459,000
-156,000
2,000
-79,000
-302,000
-80,000
16,000
214,000
-61,000
1,612,000
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
204,000
93,000
138,000
56,000
-32,000
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX
3,582,000
5,186,000
3,627,000
2,119,000
1,101,000
83,000
831,000
Indianapolis, IN
5,406,000
4,477,000
2,213,000
1,599,000
650,000
741,000
636,000
185,000
Jacksonville, FL
1,519,000
466,000
561,000
353,000
463,000
152,000
143,000
-198,000
Kansas City, MO-KS
160,000
Honolulu, HI
1,693,000
2,128,000
3,098,000
120,000
1,547,000
698,000
692,000
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
700,000
-226,000
2,059,000
281,000
418,000
457,000
726,000
458,000
Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR
129,000
-561,000
51,000
-133,000
176,000
146,000
-95,000
-177,000
491,000
3,909,000
759,000
3,656,000
-1,131,000
-1,555,000
1,580,000
1,864,000
1,709,000
802,000
1,681,000
58,000
-1,029,000
916,000
566,000
1,229,000
967,000
-465,000
3,877,000
1,972,000
2,017,000
739,000
1,869,000
-748,000
Miami-Dade, FL
1,826,000
2,348,000
2,040,000
1,118,000
425,000
359,000
1,040,000
216,000
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
3,129,000
3,702,000
4,816,000
513,000
746,000
1,173,000
1,293,000
1,604,000
421,000
2,247,000
2,502,000
578,000
1,246,000
-91,000
705,000
642,000
3,665,000
6,034,000
3,444,000
3,939,000
778,000
481,000
1,673,000
512,000
59,000
-57,000
26,000
-9,000
-27,000
15,000
38,000
130,000
-412,000
614,000
-42,000
569,000
40,000
63,000
-57,000
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

Louisville, KY-IN
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN
New York, NY
Long Island, NY
Northern New Jersey
Central New Jersey
Oklahoma City, OK
6 | Cassidy Turley
-534,000
601,000
2,398,000
276,000
553,000
953,000
328,000
565,000
2,831,000
819,000
4,633,000
-901,000
1,349,000
780,000
1,328,000
1,176,000
310,000
2,197,000
3,695,000
805,000
977,000
952,000
889,000
877,000
1,411,000
-99,000
555,000
-148,000
137,000
-21,000
82,000
357,000
Net Absorption
2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
2013 4Qp
427,000
291,000
-73,000
247,000
-207,000
-3,000
79,000
58,000
1,864,000
1,016,000
1,589,000
-220,000
781,000
175,000
337,000
296,000
443,000
674,000
812,000
173,000
291,000
288,000
19,000
214,000
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ
2,417,000
203,000
1,973,000
59,000
-588,000
143,000
1,467,000
951,000
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
7,478,000
5,565,000
3,325,000
2,818,000
1,097,000
-377,000
1,000,000
1,605,000
Pittsburgh, PA
2,165,000
1,409,000
813,000
997,000
199,000
57,000
269,000
288,000
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
2,213,000
1,778,000
741,000
128,000
30,000
-477,000
493,000
696,000
Raleigh-Durham, NC
506,000
736,000
716,000
245,000
64,000
394,000
261,000
-3,000
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA
566,000
339,000
1,270,000
368,000
147,000
1,271,000
-90,000
-58,000
Omaha, NE-IA
Orlando, FL
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL
Saint Louis, MO-IL
621,000
671,000
1,421,000
443,000
353,000
640,000
175,000
253,000
Salt Lake City, UT
2,657,000
253,000
1,352,000
-205,000
331,000
470,000
73,000
477,000
San Antonio, TX
2,409,000
1,642,000
367,000
796,000
282,000
67,000
111,000
-93,000
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
695,000
2,710,000
2,327,000
835,000
318,000
351,000
1,099,000
559,000
San Francisco, CA
-101,000
-293,000
38,000
-402,000
66,000
-97,000
143,000
-73,000
San Jose-Silicon Valley, CA
257,000
-269,000
364,000
-159,000
96,000
-94,000
121,000
241,000
151,000
154,000
1,184,000
265,000
737,000
124,000
-4,000
327,000
1,666,000
3,389,000
2,669,000
556,000
837,000
166,000
249,000
1,417,000
DC-MD Suburbs
2,000
1,226,000
-187,000
495,000
-252,000
-105,000
-183,000
353,000
DC-VA Suburbs
1,019,000
381,000
1,019,000
68,000
281,000
242,000
200,000
296,000
Stockton, CA
2,503,000
1,915,000
2,536,000
549,000
954,000
224,000
634,000
603,000
Syracuse, NY
18,000
-1,809,000
585,000
-229,000
284,000
170,000
111,000
19,000
1,146,000
1,304,000
1,424,000
651,000
566,000
278,000
296,000
284,000
Tucson, AZ
-32,000
-227,000
470,000
82,000
106,000
65,000
165,000
134,000
Washington, DC
-21,000
111,000
-21,000
-12,000
24,000
-23,000
-21,000
-1,000
San Mateo County, CA

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Methodology and data sources explained on page 14

r = revision
p = preliminary
Vacancy Rates
2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
2013 4Qp
(Quarterly Average)
United States
9.3%
9.0%
8.4%
8.7%
8.6%
8.5%
8.4%
8.2%
Northeast
8.9%
9.0%
8.9%
9.1%
9.0%
9.0%
8.8%
8.7%
Midwest
9.4%
9.0%
8.3%
8.5%
8.4%
8.5%
8.3%
8.1%
South
11.0%
10.3%
9.4%
9.9%
9.6%
9.4%
9.4%
9.3%
West
8.1%
7.7%
7.1%
7.5%
7.3%
7.2%
7.0%
6.7%
Albuquerque, NM
5.8%
6.8%
7.6%
7.2%
7.8%
7.8%
7.6%
7.3%
3.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.1%
2.4%
2.7%
2.7%
15.0%
14.0%
12.4%
13.4%
12.7%
12.5%
12.3%
12.0%
13.8%
11.1%
8.8%
10.4%
9.7%
8.9%
8.4%
7.9%
Baltimore, MD*
13.1%
12.3%
11.1%
11.9%
11.7%
11.6%
10.9%
10.2%
8.0%
8.0%
8.2%
8.2%
8.1%
8.0%
8.3%
8.3%
15.2%
14.2%
13.0%
14.0%
13.7%
13.2%
12.6%
12.7%
8.1%
7.7%
9.0%
7.8%
7.9%
9.0%
9.5%
9.6%
14.3%
13.3%
14.4%
12.9%
13.2%
12.7%
15.6%
16.2%
9.6%
8.5%
7.6%
8.0%
8.9%
7.5%
7.3%
6.6%
11.4%
10.3%
9.2%
9.7%
9.5%
9.1%
9.2%
9.0%
10.0%
9.4%
7.0%
9.1%
8.0%
7.2%
6.6%
6.4%
9.0%
Charlotte, NC
9.6%
9.4%
9.2%
9.4%
9.4%
9.3%
9.1%
Colordo Springs, CO
10.3%
9.8%
8.5%
9.2%
8.9%
8.6%
8.3%
8.3%
Columbia, SC
14.7%
16.0%
15.8%
16.1%
16.7%
15.9%
15.5%
15.1%
Columbus, OH
10.6%
9.6%
8.4%
9.2%
9.5%
8.8%
7.9%
7.4%
10.0%
8.5%
7.2%
7.7%
7.6%
7.3%
7.2%
6.6%
Dayton, OH
10.1%
13.0%
14.3%
11.4%
11.4%
15.4%
15.2%
15.1%
Denver-Aurora, CO
7.3%
7.0%
6.3%
6.4%
7.1%
6.7%
6.2%
5.3%
12.7%
11.9%
10.9%
11.5%
10.9%
11.0%
10.9%
10.7%
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
11.4%
10.6%
9.4%
10.2%
10.0%
9.6%
9.2%
8.8%
9.5%
9.6%
9.5%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.7%
9.8%
11.0%
10.8%
10.2%
10.5%
10.3%
10.2%
10.2%
10.2%
9.2%
9.7%
9.9%
9.6%
9.6%
9.7%
10.0%
10.1%
Honolulu, HI
2.8%
2.4%
2.2%
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
1.8%
2.0%
7.5%
6.6%
6.6%
6.2%
6.2%
6.4%
6.8%
7.0%
Indianapolis, IN
5.1%
3.9%
3.6%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.8%
4.1%
Jacksonville, FL
10.6%
9.8%
8.8%
9.5%
8.9%
8.8%
8.6%
8.9%
Greenville, SC
Kansas City, MO-KS
8.3%
7.7%
7.3%
7.4%
7.4%
7.2%
7.2%
7.2%
12.4%
12.2%
11.0%
12.2%
11.8%
11.4%
10.7%
10.2%
7.2%
8.1%
8.1%
8.5%
8.2%
7.9%
8.1%
8.4%
5.6%
5.4%
5.6%
5.3%
5.4%
5.7%
5.6%
5.5%
Louisville, KY-IN
9.1%
8.1%
6.7%
7.2%
9.0%
6.1%
5.5%
6.3%
14.0%
15.5%
14.0%
15.1%
14.2%
14.0%
13.5%
14.4%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
Miami-Dade, FL
7.4%
6.2%
5.6%
5.8%
5.9%
5.8%
5.4%
5.4%
7.9%
7.0%
6.6%
6.7%
7.1%
6.8%
6.5%
6.1%
13.7%
12.4%
10.5%
11.4%
11.1%
11.1%
10.4%
9.5%
10.1%
9.3%
8.1%
8.7%
8.3%
8.1%
8.0%
7.9%
New York, NY
4.0%
4.0%
4.3%
4.2%
4.4%
4.4%
4.3%
4.0%
Long Island, NY
4.7%
4.7%
4.5%
4.7%
4.6%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
Northern New Jersey
7.8%
7.7%
7.3%
7.7%
7.6%
7.5%
7.2%
7.1%
Central New Jersey
9.9%
9.0%
7.6%
8.9%
8.4%
8.2%
7.1%
6.6%
9.6%
9.2%
7.3%
8.6%
8.1%
7.6%
7.1%
6.6%
8 | Cassidy Turley
Vacancy Rates
2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
2013 4Qp
(Quarterly Average)
Oklahoma City, OK
Omaha, NE-IA
6.3%
5.7%
5.8%
6.0%
5.9%
5.9%
5.8%
5.5%
4.7%
4.2%
4.6%
4.1%
4.5%
4.6%
4.8%
4.7%
11.1%
9.0%
7.8%
9.1%
8.2%
8.0%
7.7%
7.4%
9.2%
7.3%
5.0%
6.7%
5.8%
4.9%
4.9%
4.5%
10.4%
10.0%
10.1%
10.0%
10.2%
10.2%
10.1%
9.8%
14.3%
12.7%
12.5%
12.1%
12.0%
12.5%
12.9%
12.6%
8.7%
8.3%
7.7%
7.9%
7.8%
7.8%
7.7%
7.6%
Orlando, FL
Pittsburgh, PA
9.4%
8.2%
8.3%
8.1%
8.2%
8.6%
8.4%
7.9%
Raleigh-Durham, NC
11.5%
11.0%
10.5%
10.6%
10.1%
10.8%
10.2%
10.7%
13.6%
13.3%
12.6%
13.2%
13.2%
12.3%
12.4%
12.4%
Saint Louis, MO-IL
8.7%
8.8%
8.2%
8.5%
8.3%
8.2%
8.1%
8.0%
Salt Lake City, UT
2.1%
2.2%
2.2%
2.8%
2.5%
2.0%
2.4%
2.0%
San Antonio, TX
9.1%
9.0%
8.7%
8.6%
8.4%
8.3%
8.1%
10.0%
7.8%
11.6%
10.4%
8.7%
9.5%
9.2%
9.0%
8.7%
San Francisco, CA
5.0%
5.0%
6.3%
6.6%
6.2%
6.7%
6.0%
6.4%
7.8%
7.1%
6.6%
6.8%
6.7%
6.8%
6.6%
6.3%
9.0%
9.3%
6.2%
9.0%
7.2%
6.4%
6.0%
5.2%
7.5%
6.0%
5.2%
5.6%
5.2%
5.2%
5.5%
4.8%
DC-MD Suburbs
13.7%
11.8%
11.0%
10.8%
10.3%
11.3%
11.6%
10.8%
DC-VA Suburbs
11.6%
10.6%
10.0%
10.3%
10.0%
10.5%
10.2%
9.4%
Stockton, CA
11.6%
10.3%
9.3%
9.7%
9.5%
9.2%
8.8%
9.7%
Syracuse, NY
11.5%
15.1%
15.2%
16.2%
15.6%
15.3%
15.0%
15.0%
8.7%
8.0%
6.4%
7.3%
6.8%
6.5%
6.3%
6.0%
Tucson, AZ
10.0%
11.5%
10.5%
11.5%
11.1%
10.8%
10.2%
9.7%
Washington, DC
18.1%
18.5%
16.8%
17.3%
15.8%
16.8%
17.4%
17.3%

r = revision
p = preliminary
* Balitimore, MD vacany rate only reects direct vacancy
Asking Rents
2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
2013 4Qp
(Quarterly Average)
United States
$5.09
$5.06
$5.12
$5.03
$5.06
$5.07
$5.14
$5.20
Northeast
$5.82
$5.72
$5.62
$5.53
$5.56
$5.62
$5.64
$5.68
Midwest
$3.81
$3.80
$3.88
$3.84
$3.90
$3.85
$3.86
$3.90
South
$4.48
$4.47
$4.57
$4.49
$4.53
$4.54
$4.57
$4.66
West
$6.23
$6.27
$6.39
$6.25
$6.25
$6.25
$6.49
$6.55
Albuquerque, NM
$6.38
$6.23
$5.70
$5.72
$5.68
$5.68
$5.80
$5.64
$5.84
$5.87
$6.13
$5.87
$5.85
$5.90
$6.39
$6.40
$3.48
$3.45
$3.50
$3.42
$3.47
$3.49
$3.48
$3.53
$5.59
$5.63
$5.72
$5.49
$5.55
$5.67
$5.79
$5.88
Baltimore, MD
$4.84
$4.76
$4.86
$4.67
$5.25
$4.84
$4.55
$4.80
$3.13
$3.15
$3.09
$3.19
$3.22
$3.06
$3.04
$3.04
$4.24
$4.23
$4.40
$4.29
$4.38
$4.46
$4.37
$4.37
$4.28
$4.02
$3.74
$3.89
$3.80
$3.67
$3.76
$3.73
$4.03
$4.04
$4.13
$4.03
$4.11
$4.13
$4.14
$4.12
Charlotte, NC
$3.62
$3.78
$3.92
$3.82
$3.84
$4.01
$3.92
$3.93
$4.04
$4.09
$4.40
$4.19
$4.28
$4.39
$4.46
$4.46
$2.77
$2.74
$2.87
$2.74
$2.83
$2.85
$2.93
$2.88
$3.81
$3.81
$3.81
$3.81
$3.78
$3.79
$3.82
$3.86
Colordo Springs, CO
$6.07
$5.84
$5.73
$5.83
$5.87
$5.67
$5.73
$5.66
Columbia, SC
$3.74
$3.75
$3.66
$3.71
$3.73
$3.63
$3.61
$3.65
Columbus, OH
$3.16
$3.64
$3.83
$3.83
$3.77
$3.83
$3.85
$3.85
$3.67
$3.65
$3.83
$3.67
$3.73
$3.71
$3.85
$4.01
Dayton, OH
$2.89
$2.75
$2.65
$2.92
$2.92
$2.54
$2.53
$2.60
Denver-Aurora, CO
$4.60
$4.61
$4.87
$4.67
$4.66
$4.79
$4.98
$5.04
$4.10
$4.01
$3.99
$4.00
$4.01
$3.87
$3.96
$4.12
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
$6.05
$5.85
$6.00
$5.84
$5.99
$5.96
$6.03
$6.02
$3.11
$2.99
$2.94
$2.80
$2.89
$2.97
$2.97
$2.94
Greenville, SC
$2.97
$2.92
$2.88
$2.89
$2.87
$2.89
$2.87
$2.90
$4.34
$4.26
$4.06
$4.19
$4.11
$4.14
$4.01
$3.99
$10.56
$10.71
$10.80
$10.76
$10.71
$10.71
$10.84
$10.93
$4.41
$4.45
$4.53
$4.53
$4.48
$4.46
$4.58
$4.60
Indianapolis, IN
$3.43
$3.51
$3.68
$3.54
$3.65
$3.67
$3.68
$3.71
Jacksonville, FL
$3.77
$3.83
$3.86
$3.89
$3.89
$3.89
$3.84
$3.80
Kansas City, MO-KS
$3.98
$4.00
$4.13
$4.11
$4.21
$4.06
$4.07
$4.16
$5.68
$5.48
$5.51
$5.36
$5.39
$5.54
$5.57
$5.53
$3.14
$3.12
$3.29
$3.17
$3.29
$3.28
$3.29
$3.31
$5.15
$5.23
$5.53
$5.27
$5.35
$5.38
$5.63
$5.75
Louisville, KY-IN
$3.00
$3.00
$3.19
$3.00
$3.00
$3.05
$3.12
$3.59
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
$2.52
$2.55
$2.56
$2.56
$2.62
$2.57
$2.51
$2.53
Miami-Dade, FL
$6.65
$7.29
$7.83
$7.60
$7.59
$7.89
$7.99
$7.85
$4.26
$4.03
$3.96
$3.99
$3.97
$3.93
$3.99
$3.93
$4.23
$4.30
$4.62
$4.36
$4.59
$4.56
$4.51
$4.82
$3.41
$4.01
$4.03
$4.11
$3.95
$4.07
$4.01
$4.10
New York, NY
$13.06
$11.98
$11.23
$10.72
$10.81
$11.36
$11.36
$11.39
Long Island, NY
Honolulu, HI
$10.59
$10.97
$10.98
$10.62
$10.63
$11.00
$11.16
$11.13
Northern New Jersey
$5.63
$5.66
$5.77
$5.72
$5.74
$5.77
$5.73
$5.84
Central New Jersey
$4.46
$4.44
$4.69
$4.41
$4.63
$4.57
$4.68
$4.87
$4.57
$4.86
$5.01
$4.82
$4.86
$5.02
$4.99
$5.16
10 | Cassidy Turley
Asking Rents
2011
2012
2013
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Qr
2013 4Qp
(Quarterly Average)
Oklahoma City, OK
$3.43
$3.45
$3.50
$3.45
$3.25
$3.52
$3.53
$3.71
Omaha, NE-IA
$4.62
$4.45
$4.60
$4.58
$4.67
$4.69
$4.55
$4.47
Orlando, FL
$4.06
$3.95
$4.05
$3.99
$3.98
$4.02
$4.08
$4.14
$6.29
$6.28
$6.39
$6.37
$6.43
$6.39
$6.31
$6.43
$4.04
$4.14
$4.13
$4.13
$4.11
$4.12
$4.13
$4.15
$4.88
$4.90
$5.03
$4.94
$4.98
$5.04
$5.04
$5.04
Pittsburgh, PA
$4.36
$4.79
$4.60
$4.67
$4.77
$4.41
$4.55
$4.65
$4.27
$4.36
$4.59
$4.52
$4.67
$4.72
$4.56
$4.41
Raleigh-Durham, NC
$4.27
$4.14
$3.97
$4.10
$4.02
$3.74
$3.83
$4.31
$4.26
$4.41
$4.38
$4.56
$4.32
$4.32
$4.44
$4.44
Saint Louis, MO-IL
$4.49
$4.27
$4.03
$3.97
$4.07
$4.07
$4.01
$3.97
Salt Lake City, UT
$4.13
$4.33
$4.52
$4.48
$4.47
$4.51
$4.54
$4.54
San Antonio, TX
$4.01
$4.05
$4.24
$4.14
$4.12
$4.22
$4.22
$4.38
$7.41
$7.14
$6.99
$6.96
$7.08
$7.08
$6.96
$6.84
San Francisco, CA
$9.55
$9.89
$10.58
$9.90
$9.73
$9.82
$11.24
$11.52
San Jose-Silcon Valley, CA
$6.23
$6.79
$6.85
$7.01
$6.80
$6.68
$6.81
$7.12
$8.94
$8.51
$8.88
$8.28
$8.65
$8.52
$9.12
$9.24
$5.33
$5.51
$5.71
$5.57
$5.56
$5.70
$5.73
$5.86
DC-MD Suburbs
$6.65
$6.69
$7.09
$6.70
$6.80
$7.06
$7.15
$7.35
DC-VA Suburbs
$8.18
$8.31
$8.40
$8.40
$8.41
$8.26
$8.40
$8.53
Stockton, CA
$3.68
$3.69
$3.67
$3.71
$3.70
$3.67
$3.66
$3.66
Syracuse, NY
$3.22
$2.70
$2.65
$2.63
$2.65
$2.67
$2.62
$2.64
$3.92
$3.95
$4.09
$3.92
$3.98
$3.97
$4.18
$4.22
Tucson, AZ
$5.77
$5.44
$5.46
$5.41
$5.49
$5.24
$5.58
$5.54
Washington, DC
$9.10
$7.71
$7.95
$7.80
$7.87
$7.94
$7.96
$8.02

r = revision
p = preliminary
Inventory
National Total
Inventory
2013 4Q
Vacant Stock
2013 4Q
Inventory Change
2013
U/C
(as of 2013 4Q)
71,068,000
11,121,395,000
886,035,000
58,252,000
Albuquerque, NM
46,747,000
3,393,000
215,000
70,306,000
1,932,000
210,000
351,091,000
42,002,000
2,927,000
33,893,000
2,694,000
160,000
417,000
438,000
Baltimore, MD
162,974,000
16,558,000
1,094,000
95,394,000
7,931,000
15,000
116,944,000
14,852,000
305,000
420,000
57,473,000
5,500,000
50,000
12,000
34,680,000
5,619,000
372,000
87,000
Charlotte, NC
153,267,000
10,116,000
190,000
258,000
817,580,000
73,988,000
4,653,000
3,178,000
274,121,000
17,407,000
775,000
2,200,000
323,514,000
29,209,000
36,000
205,000
Colordo Springs, CO
28,523,000
2,360,000
26,000
167,000
Columbia, SC
37,484,000
5,663,000
39,000
Columbus, OH
234,953,000
17,387,000
766,000
1,144,000
489,920,000
32,363,000
3,885,000
8,436,000
Dayton, OH
106,532,000
16,118,000
1,367,000
2,440,000
Denver-Aurora, CO
243,443,000
12,902,000
1,031,000
2,182,000
298,946,000
31,900,000
250,000
52,000
82,474,000
7,261,000
474,000
721,000
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
198,371,000
19,498,000
302,000
Greenville, SC
75,315,000
7,680,000
225,000
470,000
94,937,000
9,621,000
26,000
96,000
Honolulu, HI
37,011,000
743,000
15,000
160,000
311,992,000
21,727,000
6,469,000
6,269,000
Indianapolis, IN
243,058,000
9,965,000
60,000
600,000
Jacksonville, FL
79,922,000
7,083,000
92,000
195,764,000
14,036,000
2,854,000
5,940,000
98,929,000
10,122,000
161,000
372,000
51,085,000
4,304,000
815,930,000
44,783,000
2,537,000
1,512,000
Louisville, KY-IN
109,251,000
6,916,000
2,467,000
1,392,000
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
146,839,000
21,121,000
3,342,000
1,211,000
Miami-Dade, FL
162,050,000
8,824,000
1,584,000
1,504,000
268,254,000
16,363,000
1,160,000
3,384,000
104,741,000
9,950,000
888,000
1,034,000
195,215,000
15,500,000
2,121,000
838,000
15,321,000
619,000
38,000
Long Island, NY
300,862,000
13,655,000
28,000
Northern New Jersey
403,878,000
28,675,000
320,000
1,614,000
Central New Jersey
242,510,000
16,006,000
750,000
2,158,000
Kansas City, MO-KS
New York, NY
196,531,000
12,971,000
2,222,000
Oklahoma City, OK
83,350,000
4,552,000
129,000
525,000
Omaha, NE-IA
50,357,000
2,351,000
238,000
90,000
Orlando, FL
88,629,000
6,548,000
95,000
1,394,000

12 | Cassidy Turley
32,238,000
1,438,000
86,000
650,000
297,762,000
29,088,000
1,314,000
260,000
Inventory
Inventory
2013 4Q
Vacant Stock
2013 4Q
Inventory Change
2013
U/C
(as of 2013 4Q)
292,062,000
36,936,000
5,749,000
4,654,000
Pittsburgh, PA
213,101,000
16,158,000
158,000
683,000
152,394,000
12,068,000
585,000
898,000
100,000
Raleigh-Durham, NC
45,120,000
4,828,000
100,000
135,742,000
16,832,000
131,000
Saint Louis, MO-IL
234,447,000
18,756,000
80,000
1,732,000
Salt Lake City, UT
110,175,000
2,161,000
485,000
316,000
63,517,000
6,378,000
1,409,000
1,417,000
164,555,000
12,936,000
37,000
156,000
San Francisco, CA
20,433,000
1,308,000
83,234,000
5,210,000
575,000
San Antonio, TX

39,820,000
2,071,000
183,474,000
8,764,000
1,167,000
2,618,000
DC-MD Suburbs
50,543,000
5,459,000
DC-VA Suburbs
37,844,000
3,557,000
468,000
Stockton, CA
142,845,000
13,848,000
2,056,000
1,434,000
Syracuse, NY
45,745,000
6,850,000
54,000
27,000
111,308,000
6,705,000
36,000
27,536,000
2,680,000
7,139,000
1,235,000
Tucson, AZ
Washington, DC
Under construction and inventory change gures are derived from Cassidy Turleys proprietary
sample and taken directly from CoStars database for certain markets.
Methodology
Methodology
Disclaimer
This report and other research materials may
be found on our website at www.cassidyturley.
com. This is a research document of Cassidy
Turley in Washington, DC. Questions related
to information herein should be directed
to the Research Department at 202-4632100. Information contained herein has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable
and no representation is made as to the
Cassidy Turleys quarterly estimates are derived from a variety of data sources, including
its own proprietary sample of market activity, the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment
data, historical inventory data from Reis, LLC, CoStar and other third party data sources.
The market statistics are calculated from a base building inventory made up of industrial
properties deemed to be competitive in the local industrial markets. Generally, federallyowned buildings are not included. Single-tenant warehouse and ex structures in which
the federal government leases space are included. Older buildings unt for occupancy or
ones that require substantial renovation before tenancy are generally not included in the
competitive inventory. The inventory is subject to revisions due to resampling. Vacant space
is dened as space that is available immediately. The gures provided for the current quarter
are preliminary estimates, and all information contained in the report is subject to correction
of errors and revisions based on additional data received.
accuracy thereof. Cassidy Turley is a leading

commercial real estate services provider, with
400 million square feet managed on behalf
Explanation of Terms
of institutional, private and corporate clients
Total Inventory: The total amount of industrial space (in buildings greater than 10,000
square feet), which includes all existing multi or single tenant leased and owner-occupied
industrial, ex, and R&D properties. Certain markets include warehouse and ex space in
the nal numbers, while others include only warehouse space. This is determined by what is
market standard in each region.
and $22 billion in completed transactions

for 2012.
Vacancy Rate: The amount of unoccupied space (new, relet, and sublet) expressed as a
percentage of total inventory, unless footnoted otherwise.
Absorption: The net change in occupied space between two points in time. (Total
occupied space in the present quarter minus total occupied space in the previous
quarter, quoted on a net, not gross, basis).
Asking Rents: Average asking rents (NNN) For most markets, the asking rent represents
an average of warehouse/distribution properties, unless footnoted otherwise.
Under Construction: Counts all structures (greater than 10,000 square feet) that have
broken ground by the last day of the current quarter but have not yet been completed.
New Supply: Represent all completed structures (greater than 10,000 square feet) that
delivered to the market.
Regional Map
West
Midwest
South
Northeast
14 | Cassidy Turley
A Leader in Commercial Real Estate Services

Key
Statistics
60 ofces
65 international ofces*
More than 3,800 associates
More than 970 brokers
2012 transactions
At Cassidy Turley, we are market leaders, industry leaders and community leaders.
Nationwide, clients recognize us for the creative sophistication of our real estate advice
as well as for the discipline and accuracy of our service delivery. We are a trusted partner
and advocate, supporting our clients overall business performance. In markets across the
country, we are respected as a leading provider of commercial real estate services as well
as for our community engagement. Our thorough understanding of local business practices
and market dynamics, combined with our customer focus and service commitment, give our
clients a distinct edge in commercial real estate across the globe.
Local Market Leaders, Nationwide
Our professionals have deep ties to our communities and our industry, and a thorough
understanding of local business leaders and practices, giving Cassidy Turley and our
clients an edge.
Our in-depth, local market knowledge provides a comprehensive understanding of

market dynamics and enables us to effectively forecast market trends providing
insight to clients and helping them make informed real estate decisions.
Our leadership position is recognized in the communities we serve. We are often rated
in local business journals as a Best Place to Work, and are honored for our many
local philanthropic efforts.
Gross transaction volume

$22 billion
Gross capital markets
volume $9.2 billion
400 million sf managed

portfolio
More than 23,000 client

locations served
*Through GVA Partnership
Industry Leadership
Named to Leaders List of 2013 Global Outsourcing 100
Over 80% of real estate executives familiar with our brand ranked it Very Good or
Excellent Wall Street Journal survey
Ranked a Top 5 Brand Lipseys 2013 Commercial Real Estate Brandy Survey
Ranked in the Top 5 in Best Practices Index Commercial Property Executive
2012 Greenest Company Index Commercial Property Executive
Named by the EPA a 2013 ENERGY STAR Partner of the Year
World-Class Expertise
Many of our associates have honed their skills in their respective markets for years
even decades gaining an understanding of industry best practices and serving as
thought leaders.
Cassidy Turley has served clients needs outside of the United States since 1985. In
order to better serve our clients in Europe and Asia-Pacic, Cassidy Turley is proud to
partner with GVA, the founder and majority shareholder of GVA Worldwide, which serves
key markets in over 25 countries.
cassidyturley.com

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U.S.

U.S. Industrial Sector Analysis

U.S. Net Absorption vs. Vacancy

U.S. Asking Rents

Source: Cassidy Turley Research

Source: Cassidy Turley Research

U.S. Industrial Sector Analysis

Industrial Sector cont.

Source: Cassidy Turley Research

Net Absorption as % of Inventory

Select Markets, 2013

Select Markets, 2013

Source: Cassidy Turley Research

San Mateo County

Source: Cassidy Turley Research

U.S. Industrial Cap Rates

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Industrial Acquistion by Buyer Type

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT

Kansas City, MO-KS

Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Saint Louis, MO-IL

Salt Lake City, UT

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA

San Jose-Silicon Valley, CA

San Mateo County, CA

Methodology and data sources explained on page 14

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT

Kansas City, MO-KS

Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Northern New Jersey

Central New Jersey

Saint Louis, MO-IL

Salt Lake City, UT

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA

San Jose-Silicon Valley, CA

San Mateo County, CA

Methodology and data sources explained on page 14

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT

Kansas City, MO-KS

Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Northern New Jersey

Central New Jersey

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL

Saint Louis, MO-IL

Salt Lake City, UT

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA

San Jose-Silcon Valley, CA

San Mateo County, CA

Methodology and data sources explained on page 14

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT

Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Northern New Jersey