Forecast Ingredients: 14th

Yesterdays satellite IR 10.8 at 1245Z and 1545Z images respectively

Mar, 2014

Satellite MSG image at 0745Z

MSLP
Yesterday analysis and expected MSLP today at 12Z

Tomorrow MSLP

Surface Winds (850hpa) Left and right panels for Today and Tomorrow respectively

Medium level Winds (700Hpa) Left and right panels for Today and Tomorrow respectively

Upper level Winds (300hpa) Left and right panels for Today and Tomorrow respectively

700hpa Relative humidity today 12Z and 18Z on Left and right panels respectively

700hpa Relative humidity tomorrow 12Z and 18Z on Left and right panels respectively

Convergence today at 1200z Left and right panels for lower and upper respectively

Convergence tomorrow at 1200z Left and right panels for lower and upper respectively

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) as at 1200z Left and right panels for Today and Tomorrow respectively

COSMO

GFS; Today and Tomorrow

AFRICA LAM DAY 1

AFRICA LAM DAY 2

ECMWF; PPT EFI

ECMWF; Wind EFI

Summary of the forecast

General synoptic systems There is maintained ridging from the north over the Mediterranean region. This coupled with the ridging from St. Helena and at the tip will further influence the shift of the meridional arm of the ITCZ towards the region which will improve wet weather activities over the western and central parts of region today. A relaxation of the ridging tomorrow will slightly decrease the activities. Much of the meridional arm of the ITCZ is over the western sector of SWFDP region.

Convergence is observed at the 850mb level over the western and central Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Tanzania and Ethiopia today and tomorrow. Medium level (700mb) winds are variable today and mainly northerlies tomorrow. The upper level (300mb) winds have mainly strong easterlies today and tomorrow hence steering systems westwards. There is considerable moisture over most of the region today and with a slight reduction tomorrow. High Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is observed over most of the region today and tomorrow. There are signals of heavy precipitation over most of the region today with a slight reduction tomorrow.

Risk Probability Table 14th March, 2014

COUNTRY No HEAVY RAIN RISK Low Medium STRONG WINDS RISK Low Medium LARGE WAVES RISK Low Medium

High

No

High

No

High

BURUNDI
KENYA RWANDA TANZANIA UGANDA ETHIOPIA S SUDAN

X
C &SE X SW& coast X S

E
W&N W W, C,E &N E X

X
X X X X X X

X
E X E X X X

Risk Probability Table 15th March, 2014

COUNTRY No BURUNDI KENYA RWANDA TANZANIA UGANDA ETHIOPIA S SUDAN S HEAVY RAIN RISK Low Medium X C &SE X LVB, SW & E X E W&N W W, C &N E X STRONG WINDS RISK Low Medium LARGE WAVES RISK Low Medium

High

No X X X X X X X

High

No X

High

E X E X X X