Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1.
a.
b.
If the cost per square increases, the new cost should be used to
estimate costs.
Estimated Cost = $15 + ($0.064/s.f.)(1,224 s.f.)
= $93.34
c.
3.
PERIOD
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
CODE (X)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
-45
SUM
b =
BEEF IMPORTED(Y)
82
101
114
126
137
151
164
182
189
----1,246
n(X)(Y) - X Y
--------------------nX2 - (X)2
(9)(7,026) - (45)(1,246)
-------------------------(9)(285) - (45)2
a =
Y
---n
1,246
-------
b(X)
------n
13.27(45)
------------
(X)(Y)
82
202
342
504
685
906
1,148
1,456
1,701
----7,026
X2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
--285
9
=
PERIOD
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
SUM
Y De
= 291.1 + (158.1)(1)
= 449.2 hours
Y Ja
= 291.1 + (158.1)(2)
= 607.3 hours
Y Fe
= 291.1 + (158.1)(3)
= 765.4 hours
Y Mr
= 291.1 + (158.1)(4)
= 923.5 hours
Y Ap
= 291.1 + (158.1)(5)
= 1,081.6 hours
Y My
= 291.1 + (158.1)(6)
= 1,239.7 hours
Y Ju
= 291.1 + (158.1)(7)
= 1,397.8 hours
Y Jy
= 291.1 + (158.1)(8)
= 1,555.9 hours
ACTUAL HRS
OF SERVICE
300
750
650
920
1,300
1,400
1,200
1,500
FORECASTED HRS
OF SERVICE
449.2
607.3
765.4
923.5
1,081.6
1,239.7
1,397.8
1,555.9
ERROR
-149.2
142.7
-115.4
- 3.5
218.4
160.3
-197.8
- 55.9
------.4
SQUARED
ERROR
22,260.64
20,363.29
13,317.16
12.25
47,698.56
25,696.09
39,124.84
3,124.81
----------171,597.64
ABSOLUTE
ERROR
149.2
142.7
115.4
3.5
218.4
160.3
197.8
55.9
------1,043.2
MSE
n
(x t - f t )2
t=1
= -----------------n
171,597.64
= -----------------8
= 21,449.7
MAD
n
|x t - f t |
t=1
= -----------------n
1,043.2
= -----------------8
= 130.4
7.
b.
a.
When A = .1
f t = A (x t-1 ) + (1-A) f t-1
For the initial value, we assume
f 01
f 02
f 03
f 04
f 05
f 06
f 07
f 08
f 09
f 10
f 11
f 12
b.
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
46.0 mergers
.1(46) + .9(46.0)
.1(62) + .9(46.0)
.1(45) + .9(47.6)
.1(64) + .9(47.3)
.1(61) + .9(49.0)
.1(83) + .9(50.2)
.1(123) + .9(53.5)
.1(97) + .9(60.4)
.1(186) + .9(64.1)
.1(225) + .9(76.3)
.1(240) + .9(91.2)
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
f 01 = x 00
46.0
47.6
47.3
49.0
50.2
53.5
60.4
64.1
76.3
91.2
106.0
When A = .7
f 01
f 02
f 03
f 04
f 05
=
=
=
=
=
46.0 mergers
.7(46)
+ .3(46.0)
.7(62)
+ .3(46.0)
.7(45)
+ .3(57.2)
.7(64)
+ .3(48.7)
=
=
=
=
46.0
57.2
48.7
59.4
f 06
f 07
f 08
f 09
f 10
f 11
f 12
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
.7(61)
.7(83)
.7(123)
.7(97)
.7(186)
.7(225)
.7(240)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
.3(59.4)
= 60.5
.3(60.5)
= 76.3
.3(76.3) = 109.0
.3(109.0) = 100.6
.3(100.6) = 160.0
.3(160.4) = 205.6
.3(205.6) = 229.7
The graph shows that the high smoothing constant, A = .7, reacts more quickly
to fluctuations in demand. The low value of A causes the forecast to
react very slowly. Thus, the forecast is smoother.
9.
a.
PERIOD
CODE(X)
5 yr,q1
q2
q3
q4
1
2
3
4
APPLIANCES RETURN(Y)
1.2
0.8
0.6
1.1
(X)(Y)
X2
1.2
1.6
1.8
4.4
1
4
9
16
4 yr,q1
q2
q3
q4
3 yr,q1
q2
q3
q4
2 yr,q1
q2
q3
q4
1 yr,q1
q2
q3
q4
SUM
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
--210
1.7
1.2
1.0
1.5
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.2
2.6
2.2
1.9
2.5
2.9
2.5
2.2
3.0
---42.2
8.5
7.2
7.0
12.0
27.9
35.0
38.5
38.4
33.8
30.8
28.5
40.0
49.3
45.0
41.8
60.0
-----512.7
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
169
196
225
256
289
324
361
400
----2,870
n(X)(Y) - X Y
b = -------------------nX2 - (X)2
(20)(512.7) - (210)(42.2)
= -------------------------(20)(2,870) - (210)2
1,392
= -----13,300
= 0.1047 thousands of appliances/quarter
Y
b(X)
a = ----- - --------n
n
42.2
(.1047)(210)
= ------ - -----------20
20
= 1.011 thousands of appliances
As a result, the number of appliances returned is projected to
increase 0.1047 thousand per quarter. The y-intercept is 1.011
thousand, and it represents the point on the regression line for
the quarter prior to the first quarter for which data are
available. The model is:
Y e = 1.011 + .1047(X)
b.
11.
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
55.0 thousands of
.8(53) + .2(55.0)
.8(60) + .2(53.4)
.8(49) + .2(58.7)
.8(48) + .2(50.9)
.8(61) + .2(48.6)
.8(61) + .2(58.5)
.8(53) + .2(60.5)
.8(63) + .2(54.5)
.8(53) + .2(61.3)
.8(51) + .2(54.7)
.8(60) + .2(51.7)
.8(58) + .2(58.4)
.8(52) + .2(58.1)
.8(51) + .2(53.2)
.8(63) + .2(51.4)
units
= 53.4
= 58.7
= 50.9
= 48.6
= 58.5
= 60.5
= 54.5
= 61.3
= 54.7
= 51.7
= 58.3
= 58.1
= 53.2
= 51.4
= 60.7
The forecast depends too much on the most recent months' actual demand
because the smoothing constant (A) is too large. This causes the
forecast to change significantly in response to any change in the prior
periods actual demand.
13.
PERIOD
2010, 9
10
11
12
2011, 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
SUM
CODE(X)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
--136
UNIT SOLD(Y)
55
53
60
49
48
61
61
53
63
53
51
60
58
52
51
63
---891
n(X)(Y) - (X)(Y)
b = ----------------------
(X)(Y)
55
106
180
196
240
366
427
424
567
530
561
720
754
728
765
1,008
------7,627
X2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
169
196
225
256
------1,496
nX2 - (X)2
(16)(7,627) - (136)(891)
= -------------------------(16)(1,496) - (136)2
856
= -----5,440
= 0.157 thousands of units/month
Y
a = ---n
b(X)
------n
891
= ---16
(0.157)(136)
------------16
15.
=
=
=
=
=
=
54.4
54.4
54.4
54.4
54.4
54.4
+
+
+
+
+
+
0.157(17)
0.157(18)
0.157(19)
0.157(20)
0.157(21)
0.157(22)
=
=
=
=
=
=
a.
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
X
154
265
540
332
551
487
305
218
144
155
242
234
343
-----
Y
743
830
984
801
964
955
839
478
720
782
853
878
940
------
(X)(Y)
114,422
219,950
531,360
265,932
531,164
465,085
255,895
104,204
103,680
121,210
206,426
205,452
322,420
---------
X2
23,716
70,225
291,600
110,224
303,601
237,169
93,025
47,524
20,736
24,025
58,564
54,756
117,649
---------
Y2
552,049
688,900
968,256
641,601
929,296
912,025
703,921
228,484
518,400
611,524
727,609
770,884
883,600
---------
SUM
3,970
10,767
3,447,200
1,452,814
9,136,549
n(X)(Y) - (X)(Y)
b = ---------------------nX2 - (X)2
(13)(3,447,200) - (3,970)(10,767)
b = --------------------------------(13)(1,452,814) - (3,970)2
2,068,610
= ---------3,125,682
= .6618
Y
b(X)
a = -- - ----n
n
10,767
a = -----13
(.662)(3,970)
------------13
= 626.1
Y e = 626.1 + .6618(X)
b.
r=
r=
n[ (X)(Y)] - ( X)( Y)
[n( X 2 ) - ( X)2 ][n( Y 2 ) - ( Y)2 ]
(13)(3,447,200) - (3,970)(10,767)
[(13)(1,452,814) - (3,970 )2 ][(13)(9,136,549) - (10,767)2 ]
2,068,610
r = ---------------2,983,008.8
=
0.693
s=
Y 2 - a Y - b (X)(Y)
n-2
s=
c.